The Devil In Stevan Ridley's Details

[JJDChE]

Sabremetrics for football. Shoot me now.

 

[lamafist]

Overanalyze much? Jeez. I just meant that people are going to start paying more attention to Ridley after that performance. A luxury we haven't had since Dillon left.

I think you're underestimating the amount of attention a chain-mover like BJGE gets from opposing defenses. Defensive coaches understand what keeps an offense on the field. We've often heard BB talk about an opposing team's running backs keeping them out of third-and-long situations.

Preventing big running plays doesn't require changing what you do on defense, just executing it with more discipline. It's stopping getting gashed for 3,4 and 5 yards consistently that demands cheating safeties up, run-blitzing linebackers, etc.

What made Corey Dillon so effective in '04 is that he was the best of both worlds -- he had the discipline and decisiveness to always get the yards that the defense was giving, and then the burst, strength and vision to stretch them into longer gains.

Ridley's not quite there yet, but that's exactly the kind of potential that Sunday's performance suggests.

 

[letekro]

I think you're underestimating the amount of attention a chain-mover like BJGE gets from opposing defenses. Defensive coaches understand what keeps an offense on the field. We've often heard BB talk about an opposing team's running backs keeping them out of third-and-long situations.

Preventing big running plays doesn't require changing what you do on defense, just executing it with more discipline. It's stopping getting gashed for 3,4 and 5 yards consistently that demands cheating safeties up, run-blitzing linebackers, etc.

What made Corey Dillon so effective in '04 is that he was the best of both worlds -- he had the discipline and decisiveness to always get the yards that the defense was giving, and then the burst, strength and vision to stretch them into longer gains.

Ridley's not quite there yet, but that's exactly the kind of potential that Sunday's performance suggests.

I place much of the blame for the playoff loss against the JETS on BJGE's shoulders. The Jets were not playing the run AT ALL and he could only get 4 or 5 yards a pop. If we could've gashed them with 15-20 yard runs, it would have been different. The Jets were happy to give up 3, 4, 5 yards a pop and then hope for a holding call or sack to stall the drive. It's the chunk yardage that forces a defense out of what it wants to do.

 

[lamafist]

Sabremetrics for football. Shoot me now.

Why? Sabremetrics revolutionized baseball, and enabled teams to start focusing on what really wins games.

Advanced stats can help football, too -- though, admittedly, to a much diminished extent.

For example, people have made arguments in this thread comparing the o-line play between this year and previous, and that is a valid point that, for the time being, statistics can't really tell us much about. It's pretty much impossible to delineate the boundaries between the o-line's performance and the running backs.

What's more, there's a lot more inter-dependence between offensive and defensive performance in football than in baseball. It's exponentially harder to assemble meaningful metrics out of football stats, but in my opinion that makes the pursuit that much more interesting.

Also, the same qualities that make football so hard to break down statistically are what make it exponentially more fun to watch than baseball.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

I place much of the blame for the playoff loss against the JETS on BJGE's shoulders. The Jets were not playing the run AT ALL and he could only get 4 or 5 yards a pop. If we could've gashed them with 15-20 yard runs, it would have been different. The Jets were happy to give up 3, 4, 5 yards a pop and then hope for a holding call or sack to stall the drive. It's the chunk yardage that forces a defense out of what it wants to do.

Seems reasonable to blame the guy that made a positive play almost every time he touched the ball and recovered a Brady fumble deep in NE territory...

 

[JJDChE]

I think you're underestimating the amount of attention a chain-mover like BJGE gets from opposing defenses.

I just know it's less attention than a guy who will bust off 20 yds if you make a mistake.

 

[JJDChE]

Why? Sabremetrics revolutionized baseball, and enabled teams to start focusing on what really wins games.

Advanced stats can help football, too -- though, admittedly, to a much diminished extent.

For example, people have made arguments in this thread comparing the o-line play between this year and previous, and that is a valid point that, for the time being, statistics can't really tell us much about. It's pretty much impossible to delineate the boundaries between the o-line's performance and the running backs.

What's more, there's a lot more inter-dependence between offensive and defensive performance in football than in baseball. It's exponentially harder to assemble meaningful metrics out of football stats, but in my opinion that makes the pursuit that much more interesting.

Also, the same qualities that make football so hard to break down statistically are what make it exponentially more fun to watch than baseball.

Exactly what you said. Too many interdependencies.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I can only recall 1 play in my head where Ridley danced a little too much and should have just pushed into the pile for what he could get. I can recall several times where the blocking was putrid and there was nothing Ridley could do.

If somebody who has the all-22 tape subscription (or even a DVR'd copy of the game) could give us a break down it'd be greatly appreciated.

On the first run, Ridley needed 1 yard (2nd and 1) and he didn't get it:

As you can see, there wasn't a whole lot more that he could have done, realistically. On the very next play, he went for 17 yards on 3rd and 1.

At 4:05 in the 1st, Ridley was stopped for no gain again. No indecisiveness on his part there, just bad blocking:

A little later in the same drive, he was stopped for -1, and again, it's pretty much impossible to watch that play and blame Ridley. He takes the hand off, and doesn't hesitate at all:

Unfortunately, a defender manages to hit him behind the line of scrimmage and blow the play up. Again, poor blocking:

On the next play after that, Brady hit Hernandez for a touchdown.

At 13:29 in the 2nd quarter, the Patriots put Gronk in motion over to the strong side and then pitched it to Ridley, and from the beginning this play just looked ugly. Note the three Patriots standing around who were in no position to block, as well as Hilliard completely failing to block the defender:

True, Ridley didn't make the tackler miss, but it's hard to fault him when the opponent is making contact behind the line of scrimmage. Good tackle by Verner:

The next negative play was at 12:43 in the third quarter, and again it was a pitch to the strong side. Ridley does hesitate a bit, but again, it's hard to fault him for that, since he's being confronted by a completely unblocked defender three yards in the backfield:

After a moment's hesitation, he plows ahead, and is brought down for a one yard loss.

 

[BradyFTW!]

8:56 in the 3rd quarter was the only negative play that I think Ridley deserves a share of the blame in:

Note Jason McCourty beating Lloyd's block at the top of the screenshot:

Had he plowed forward, he probably would have been stopped for no gain, but instead Ridley tried to escape McCourty, going backward in the process:

McCourty comes up with a good tackle, though, and even if he hadn't, Ridley still probably would have lost yards:

Bad play by Ridley, but overall I'll take it.

 

[letekro]

Seems reasonable to blame the guy that made a positive play almost every time he touched the ball and recovered a Brady fumble deep in NE territory...

No one is disputing that he made positive plays. The point is that the Jets would have been forced out of their gimmick defense if he could've done more damage against a team that literally was not defending the run. The effectiveness of a runner has to be evaluated in its proper context. Running for 4 yards a pop like Corey Dillon did for the Bengals against stacked fronts is much more impressive than running for four yards a pop for the 2010 or 2011 Patriots where run defense is an afterthought.

Nothing against Benny. I like him as a player. It's just that his limitations really hurt us in that game.

 

[PP2]

I place much of the blame for the playoff loss against the JETS on BJGE's shoulders. The Jets were not playing the run AT ALL and he could only get 4 or 5 yards a pop. If we could've gashed them with 15-20 yard runs, it would have been different. The Jets were happy to give up 3, 4, 5 yards a pop and then hope for a holding call or sack to stall the drive. It's the chunk yardage that forces a defense out of what it wants to do.

You may want to also shoot Woodhead. He had 3.3 YPC, 14 times for 46 yards in that game.

BJGE had 4.8 YPC in that game but only carried 9 times. I would suggest that he had such a small role in the game that it's scarcely feasible to blame him.

 

[PP2]

They'll bite harder with Ridley in the backfield, guaranteed.

This is the NFL where the talent pool is as even as it can ever be; you only need a slight bite to gain an advantage. Biting any harder is moot.

What do you want? He's an average NFL starting RB who put up 1 decent season for us.

Why couldn't we get more 1,000 yard seasons from our RBs then? Since Corey Dillion in '04, he is the only other RB with 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd think that's a little more than decent.

 

[ausbacker]

How was any of that disrespectful? I think it was a pretty fair description of bennies performance here. He wasn't flashy, rarely broke a big run, but consistently got a handful of hard fought yards without fumbling.

Sent from my ADR6425LVW using Tapatalk 2

You would think it was fair given you made the comment.

What do you want? He's an average NFL starting RB who put up 1 decent season for us. They way you defend him it's as if you want him inducted into the Patriots Hall of Fame. Are you related to him or something?

So average that he's the Bengals starting RB and just put up 91 yards at 5.1 ypc with a TD on the Ravens Defense.

 

[ALP]

i dont want to compare him to Maroney, but if memory serves i should...

maroney when he first started was similar, a guy who would get 6+ yds or 1 to neg.

then as time passed his good runs decreased, his bad ones increased

let us hope that Ridley faces the opposite future, but his current trend does remind me of Maroney

 

[Ring 6]

i dont want to compare him to Maroney, but if memory serves i should...

maroney when he first started was similar, a guy who would get 6+ yds or 1 to neg.

then as time passed his good runs decreased, his bad ones increased

let us hope that Ridley faces the opposite future, but his current trend does remind me of Maroney

There was a lot of debate on this board about boom or bust Maroney, and it always ended with the facts showing he had an inordinately low number of negative or poor plays. Of course the myth lives.
As far as Ridley, when you break a few 15-20 yarders and average 6 a carry, that is different also.
The backhanded criticism really is unwarranted

 

[Pats-Phan]

I think you're underestimating the amount of attention a chain-mover like BJGE gets from opposing defenses.

IMO your overestimating it. Those short runs are going to put you in a ton of 3rd down situations, regardless of distance. Even if they're all 3rd and short chances are you're not gonna convert 4 to 5 3rd downs on a drive. You need big chunks of yardages if you want a td drive.

 

[ThatllMoveTheChains!!!]

No one is disputing that he made positive plays. The point is that the Jets would have been forced out of their gimmick defense if he could've done more damage against a team that literally was not defending the run. The effectiveness of a runner has to be evaluated in its proper context. Running for 4 yards a pop like Corey Dillon did for the Bengals against stacked fronts is much more impressive than running for four yards a pop for the 2010 or 2011 Patriots where run defense is an afterthought.

Nothing against Benny. I like him as a player. It's just that his limitations really hurt us in that game.

There aren't many backs that are going to do a ton of damage with 11 touches. By and large his runs were all between the tackles and if the line isn't opening up decent holes it doesn't much matter if the defense is selling out against the pass. While run defense was an afterthought for opponents, run blocking was an afterthought for the Pats. When he ran outside the tackles he had runs of 10, 8, and 2 yards, while not terrifying it's definitely enough to keep a defense honest. The game plan didn't allow BJGE to do his job, blaming him for that is a bit of a stretch especially when he produced with the touches he was given.

I completely agree that he has limitations and at best is a guy that will keep defenses honest. I just can't subscibe to the theory that the Jets would've happily let BJGE average 4.8 y/r, when he almost never has negative runs and never fumbles, if the Pats were giving him regular touches.

 

[JJDChE]

This is the NFL where the talent pool is as even as it can ever be; you only need a slight bite to gain an advantage. Biting any harder is moot.

That is complete bull.

Why couldn't we get more 1,000 yard seasons from our RBs then? Since Corey Dillion in '04, he is the only other RB with 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'd think that's a little more than decent.

No, not really. He is a really good short yardage back though.

So average that he's the Bengals starting RB and just put up 91 yards at 5.1 ypc with a TD on the Ravens Defense.

I said he's an average starting RB. I don't see how that one game proves me 'wrong'. We'll see where he finishes up the year. It was a nice game though. He always seemed to perform well against some of the tougher run Ds.

 

[unoriginal]

If we think the coaching staff is not incompetent, then the fact that BenJarvis Green-Ellis never received regular touches is an important stat in its own right.

He's carried 20 or more times in only 6 games.

Points of comparison:
In three years in New Engalnd, Corey Dillon had 19 such games.
Antowain Smith had 15 such games.
Laurence Maroney had 8 such games.

Will Ridley end up deserving more carries? So far so good this year.

 

[ausbacker]

That is complete bull.

No, not really. He is a really good short yardage back though.

I said he's an average starting RB. I don't see how that one game proves me 'wrong'. We'll see where he finishes up the year. It was a nice game though. He always seemed to perform well against some of the tougher run Ds.

It was proven wrong last year and it will continue to be proven wrong as long as Green-Ellis continues to perform. Do not blame others for your incorrect assessment of the Law Firm.

As for this discussion, I don't understand why it has to be a denigrate one to praise another. It's perfectly acceptable to praise all involved. I'm happy for Green-Ellis to go on to enjoy a meaningful career with the Bengals as I am happy for Ridley or Vereen to turn into a stud for New England.