Franchise tag could be coming for Wes Welker

[Triumph]

Which, let's be honest, we can't blame him if he does feel that way. I get that drop was a huge one, but there were plenty of other chances to win the game.

It was 2nd and 11, not 4th down.

It was a very difficult catch. Not like the one Lee Evans dropped.

 

[Triumph]

Welker - worth it

Hes not going anywhere.

 

[Deus Irae]

Obvious Welker is an excellent player, but comparing him to the elite receivers in the league, in terms of big play ability, there really is no comparison:

Player           # Games With Reception of 30+ Yards, 2011 Regular Season
Welker (NE)         6
Fitzgerald (ARI)   11 
Johnson (DET)      11

And big play ability is what commands top dollar at the receiver position. If Welker's camp is looking for that kind of money, I definitely see a franchise tag in his future.

The problem is that you're comparing apples and oranges. Wes is the best slot receiver of the era. He's not an outside receiver. He does things that even guys like Fitzgerald and Johnson can't do, but they do things that Welker can't. It's almost as if slot receivers in certain systems are completely different animals.

The question for teams moving forward is going to be a simple one to ask, but a difficult one to answer: When rating receivers for pay, where will elite slot receivers rank? Wes will be the first real test case, and maybe the only one for quite a while.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Mankins wasn't franchised?????????

He was but he didn't hold out on it. He held out on a RFA tender that was set to pay him $3M after it was reduced to half that. Welker has made roughly $20M in his entire career. Close to what Mankins had made to that point. Mankins was 3 years younger and would have been in far greater position demand since everyone wants a pro bowl LG while not every team is in position to use a pro bowl slot WR. He isn't going to jeopardize what is left of his career (4 years +/-) earnings wise by holding out on a $9.4M franchise tag. Mankins reported for less.

Welker is a self made man. He was productive on a team that didn't have a QB or many other bodefide options. Although had he remained there defenses would have adjusted for that eventually. Here Welker blossomed into a stud because he had the opportunity to. Many assumed that Moss was key in that development. What really was was a surrounding cast including a HOF QB and HC who played a scheme that suited his strengths (brains and quicks) and alternate options that also gave defenses fits. Moss left, but he was replaced with another of Brady's favorites to target and a two headed TE monster. Welker still got his, as he will if another viable outside option is added to the mix. What will happen is the offense will get better and maybe Welker's career will last a little longer. I know some don't think you need to improve on a unit already this good in the regular season, but as Bill ALWAYS says, if you aren't getting better you're getting worse.

 

[Patsgofor4]

The problem is that you're comparing apples and oranges. Wes is the best slot receiver of the era. He's not an outside receiver. He does things that even guys like Fitzgerald and Johnson can't do, but they do things that Welker can't. It's almost as if slot receivers in certain systems are completely different animals.

The question for teams moving forward is going to be a simple one to ask, but a difficult one to answer: When rating receivers for pay, where will elite slot receivers rank? Wes will be the first real test case, and maybe the only one for quite a while.

I think that Welker will stay*but if they*let Welker, Branch and Ocho*walk, they could put*Edelman in the*slot and would have the cap money to sign Vincent Jackson and Lloyd.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Wasn't I?

I never said the situation is the same right now....

...however the Patriots won't over pay for someone. We both know that much (I'm assuming both having been fans for all of Belichick's tenure here). If Welker wants paying and a long term deal and the Patriots won't give that to him then we could find ourselves in a very tough situation, similar to that with Deion. The most we could do is tag him, and then we have a disgruntled player. I also never said we would let him walk.

The basis of the comparison is the Pats will not over pay to someone they don't think they have to...and I'm not 100% sold we have to over pay Welker. This could all be irrelevant as they could snap him up to a deal prior to free agency and they could agree terms. We just don't know.

The team could eat his tag for a year easily, but I bet you they rather wouldn't. As I said, my logic is perfectly fine...but I'm not saying that's what's going to happen. It's a scenario worth looking at.

FYI, don't look at my join date and where I live and assume how long I've been a fan I've watched every single Superbowl Brady and Belichick have participated in.......

Actually they will short term. They didn't think Asante was worth what he wanted and they wouldn't even offer him the tag long term, but short term was a different matter. By the time Deion left they were willing to pay him what he wanted all along. Trouble was by then the ante had gone up, similar to what transpired with Asante. If they paid Mankins $8+ long term when they wanted him for $6.5-7M they will do the same for Welker on a shorter term. The ACL (both in his and Brady's case) and impending lockout just made it a little tougher to get the term they'd have been comfortable with at the time. That's why Brady opted to sign a 4 year rather than hold firm for a 6 year extension, and I imagine it will be the difference in Welker getting a 3 year extension with perhaps some 4th year option language rather than another 5 year deal. Those are a little tougher to structure so that the team is comfortable and the player doesn't feel dissed (backloaded ungraranteed money). There is a compromise to be achieved and it relates to rolling guarantees. With the cap due to rise dramatically in 2014 they'll be fine with paying him a present day top tier average for a couple of seasons. He just has to realize they won't guarantee to up front to the extent they might have had they been able to do the deal when it made more sense to.

Fans tend to make some apples and oranges comparisons when assessing player value. To Bill value is production and consistency. That's why he doesn't care if you're talking UDFA or 1st rounder. Brady wasn't Manning, but over time he's matched him production wise to the point that this time around Manning was willing to take Brady money... This team was willing to pay Randy Moss $9M per 4 years ago and trade a #2+ and pay Wes Welker $4M in the same time frame when many fans here thought that was a wild overpay for a slot guy. Turns out the team thought different, and they were right. The fact that he has outperformed his contract consistently in silence also carries some weight with them. They eventually just part with those who don't earlier.

They paid Ocho $6M last season and essentially got nothing out of him, which is why it's highly doubtful he is back (no one lies to overpay...). As a result they have $3M more to invest in Welker (and $1.5M more in cap space) without breaking a sweat just to maintain the status quo. They should and will be looking to improve on the status quo, and losing Welker in the short term (2-3 seasons) won't achieve that no matter who else they bring in to replace Chad or upgrade Branch.

These decisions are seldom as cut and dried as fans tend to project them to be. Mankins proved that. As conversely did Warren and Seymour and others. They can and will pay you what you're worth, as long as you're worth it.

 

[rfournier103]

With all that production from Welker since 2007, I just don't see how the Patriots don't have Welker back next season. Who would replace him? The Pats need ANOTHER reciever, not LOSE one. If I may be brutally honest, I think this is a non-story. He said he wants to come back. I'll be shocked if he's not.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I think that Welker will stay*but if they*let Welker, Branch and Ocho*walk, they could put*Edelman in the*slot and would have the cap money to sign Vincent Jackson and Lloyd.

That actually gains them nothing and there is always the possibility it gains them less than nothing because it's not a given Jackson fits here and it's not a given Lloyd doesn't hit the wall sooner than Welker and it's not a given Edleman can replace Welker long term (as in course of a season even) and even if he could he's up after 2012 so if he did he'd want his, too.

I'd prefer they bring in a mid level FA WR and draft a couple of versatile, developmental players later in the draft where a lot of the WR gems fans here long for actually emerge from.

 

[Patsgofor4]

That actually gains them nothing and there is always the possibility it gains them less than nothing because it's not a given Jackson fits here and it's not a given Lloyd doesn't hit the wall sooner than Welker and it's not a given Edleman can replace Welker long term (as in course of a season even) and even if he could he's up after 2012 so if he did he'd want his, too.

I'd prefer they bring in a mid level FA WR and draft a couple of versatile, developmental players later in the draft where a lot of the WR gems fans here long for actually emerge from.

That scenario assumes that BB thinks that Edelman can handle slot duty. Jackson is a beast....he would be great with Brady. Lloyd was productive even with the Rams god-awful offense. I was just throwing out an interesting scenario, not one which I think will happen or even that BB should do.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think that Welker will stay*but if they*let Welker, Branch and Ocho*walk, they could put*Edelman in the*slot and would have the cap money to sign Vincent Jackson and Lloyd.

No doubt, all Edelman has to do is catch another 110 passes or so and lead the league in yards and he'll replace Welker just fine. Shouldn't be much of a problem.

 

[Deus Irae]

That scenario assumes that BB thinks that Edelman can handle slot duty. Jackson is a beast....he would be great with Brady. Lloyd was productive even with the Rams god-awful offense. I was just throwing out an interesting scenario, not one which I think will happen or even that BB should do.

1.) What has Edelman done to convince you that he can be a legitimate replacement for Welker in the slot?

2.) What has BB done to convince you that he thinks Edelman can be a legitimate replacement for Welker in the slot?

 

[Patsgofor4]

No doubt, all Edelman has to do is catch another 110 passes or so and lead the league in yards and he'll replace Welker just fine. Shouldn't be much of a problem.

Listen you sarcastic arse, I obviously wasn't intimating that Edelman will produce at Welker-like levels but VJ and Lloyd would be a big upgrade versus Branch and WR 3 of the week and would dramatically improve the big play ability of the offense.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

1.) What has Edelman done to convince you that he can be a legitimate replacement for Welker in the slot?

2.) What has BB done to convince you that he thinks Edelman can be a legitimate replacement for Welker in the slot?

Front row view of the other team's receivers going across the middle?

I don't think there is as much of a market for Welker as some are implying. If you're looking at slot receivers, the much younger Eddie Royal is out there. He doesn't have the pedigree and the know-how, but Welker isn't getting any younger and his position relies completely on his ridiculous quickness.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Listen you sarcastic arse, I obviously wasn't intimating that Edelman will produce at Welker-like levels but VJ and Lloyd would be a big upgrade versus Branch and WR 3 of the week and would dramatically improve the big play ability of the offense.

Actually you are just the latest in a long line of people who actually thinks Edelman can replace Welker when he has done absolutely nothing in his time in NE to show that he can even come close to doing so. Vincent Jackson and Brandon Lloyd are high ticket free agents and getting rid of Brady's favoritee reciever to go get a guy who is one strike from a year suspension and prohibitively expensive is a ridiculous idea. I'm all for upgrading WR and bringing in Lloyd if they can get him but the talk of getting rid of or "replacing" Welker is crazy talk, period.

As for the sarcasm,sometimes it is better than really responding to the worst ideas that are put forth here. The idea of getting rid of Welker is nothing new here, nor is the stupidity of it.

 

[Boomer B]

1.) What has Edelman done to convince you that he can be a legitimate replacement for Welker in the slot?

2.) What has BB done to convince you that he thinks Edelman can be a legitimate replacement for Welker in the slot?

I think in the scenerio that was posted, Edelman wouldn't need to replace all of Welker's production.

Hernandez is getting better and should see his catches increase. If we had 2 legit outside receivers we would see more production from them. The slot receiver wouldn't need to catch 100+ balls like Welker does.

I expect Welker to stay but I think the days of 100 -120 catches are behind him if we do get a good outside WR. I also hope that as Brady gets older we run the ball more which will lead to less catches for the receivers.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think in the scenerio that was posted, Edelman wouldn't need to replace all of Welker's production.

Hernandez is getting better and should see his catches increase. If we had 2 legit outside receivers we would see more production from them. The slot receiver wouldn't need to catch 100+ balls like Welker does.

I expect Welker to stay but I think the days of 100 -120 catches are behind him if we do get a good outside WR. I also hope that as Brady gets older we run the ball more which will lead to less catches for the receivers.

The idea that Welker's production would go down in this offense was the driving argument from those who said they should get rid of him last offseason, and the idea that Edelman would step up and could replace him accompanied it, instead his production went up again and Edelman was moved to DB and lost almost all his reps at WR. Welker is and has been Brady's safety valve and keeps him from getting killed waiting for receivers to get open, going to a system dependent on outside receivers only ensures that Brady will take more of a beating going forward and will be less effective.



I honestly don't know how an idea this bad can maintain the legs this does. Welker is without question one of the most proven commodities in all of football and getting rid of him is without question one of the stupidest ideas ever floated here. The winner of that prize will always be the Trade Brady/ Keep Cassel idea but "get rid of Welker. replace him with Edelman, V. jackson, D. jackson........" is a close second.

 

[MP-Logick]

I'm pretty certain that the only reason people think Julian Edelman can replace Wes Welker is that they are two similar-looking tiny white guys.

Edelman has never done anything to make anyone think he can have 4 seasons of 100+ receptions.

 

[Deus Irae]

I think in the scenerio that was posted, Edelman wouldn't need to replace all of Welker's production.

Hernandez is getting better and should see his catches increase. If we had 2 legit outside receivers we would see more production from them. The slot receiver wouldn't need to catch 100+ balls like Welker does.

I expect Welker to stay but I think the days of 100 -120 catches are behind him if we do get a good outside WR. I also hope that as Brady gets older we run the ball more which will lead to less catches for the receivers.

Replacing Welker isn't just about numbers. As the Giants noted, it's Welker that drives the Patriots receiving corps, not Gronkowski. In the Patriots system, it's the short/slot receiver (Welker) who keeps the engine humming, even with the two tight ends in the fold, because he's the one who can best move the chains when the team is under duress.

Edelman has not shown he can do that.

 

[Triumph]

I'm pretty certain that the only reason people think Julian Edelman can replace Wes Welker is that they are two similar-looking tiny white guys.

Edelman has never done anything to make anyone think he can have 4 seasons of 100+ receptions.

It wouldnt shock if Edelman was gone next year.

Welker isnt going anywhere.

 

[Patsgofor4]

It wouldnt shock if Edelman was gone next year.

Welker isnt going anywhere.

My scenario was basically an "if the Pats let Welker leave, what could they do?" scenario. I think that they should and will keep Welker. I would try to add Lloyd and/or Garçon, to take some pressure off on WW and Hernandez. It is clear that any team whose best deep threat is Slater needs to upgrade at that spot.