So what's the writing on the wall for BJGE?

[fumbrunner]

In essence you are content with the Patriot's backfield as currently constituted. Even though the Jets dared the Pats to run all day. Bill does not agree with you by saying the running game is fine.

If you are not seeing how Bill is trying to change the attitude of this offense by drafting a 320 lb LG, a 355 lb G and two potentially bellweather RBs, I don't what to tell you.

Times are changing.

Interesting that you should mention the drafting of these guards. Could it be that BB is finally comfortable with what he has as a base in the running game with BJGE and woodhead that he decided this is the direction he wanted to move in? Adding two other RBs add to it. I think it possibly shows his faith in BJGE.

 

[DaBruinz]

I keep asking myself what is so wrong with BJGE that we HAD to draft two running backs high. Two very good running backs.

Vareen most likely will split carries with BJGE but he does something that BJ can't. He can take the ball outside with speed and break defenders, and he can carry it up the middle for power.

Vareen at his height was ranked the strongest at his position this year with 31 reps of 225 consecutively. He has a great power and speed combo and is considered one of the smartest backs in this draft class. His hands were a huge part of his game and allowed him to become a massive game changer at Cal.

He's been called Ray Rice by some scouts while others see him as a more polished version of Marshawn Lynch without the off field issues.

So what is wrong with BJGE? Ive killed myself in figuring out what is so wrong with his game. And my prayers were finally answered over the weekend. After countless hours of listening to phone interviews and reading transcripts and adding 2 + 2 equals 246. It was said.

BJGE is one dimensional. When he came into the game teams knew the Patriots were going to run and that they were going to run up the middle. Same thing with Woodhead, when he came into the game it was either going to be a screen to Danny or a run to the outside. In essence the Patriots running game had become stale and predictable.

Teams knew defensively when we were running and when we were throwing based on our backfield.

I was not aware of this and i thought i'd share. Hope this helps.

A low 2nd and a mid 3rd = "high picks"?

Well, I watched the games and I saw Woodhead run plenty of times INSIDE. And his splits show that as well.

Danny Woodhead Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

When you look at the splits, many of his runs came Up the middle, or to the left or right sides. If I remember correctly, the middle = "A" gaps, Sides=B gaps, and outside = c/d gaps = outside the tackles.

In fact, he had his most success running to the right (Hello Vollmer)..

The problem with BJGE is that he's got one speed. He's not terribly fast, but not terrilby slow either. He'll hit you. And he won't drop the ball.

Vereen and Ridley both have more agility than BJGE. Both have the ability to step up and become significant parts of this offense. It is safe to say that the Passing game is where BJGE is lacking. Both in terms of blitz pick-up and catching out of the backfield.

How things shake out will be interesting to watch. I think that all 4 guys will push one another.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Interesting that you should mention the drafting of these guards. Could it be that BB is finally comfortable with what he has as a base in the running game with BJGE and woodhead that he decided this is the direction he wanted to move in? Adding two other RBs add to it. I think it possibly shows his faith in BJGE.

Thats another way to look at it. Although I'd counter that by by developing BJGE into a 1000 yd runner, he is now speculating that what the running game could be with two or three solid runners (including BJGE) and a physically superior o-line.

With that said, I still don't think you draft a RB in the 2nd and 3rd round and still plan on giving BJGE the rock 229 times a year.

 

[fumbrunner]

Thats another way to look at it. Although I'd counter that by by developing BJGE into a 1000 yd runner, he is now speculating that what the running game could be with two or three solid runners (including BJGE) and a physically superior o-line.

With that said, I still don't think you draft a RB in the 2nd and 3rd round and still plan on giving BJGE the rock 229 times a year.

Agreed. As I mentioned in a previous post, being the nominal #1 in this RBBC does not mean alot. Each of these guys have different strengths and BB will use those strengths as he game plans each week. There may be games where BJGE gets his usual 18-22 carries, there will be others where he'll get 8. Having said that, I would be surprised if they didnt run the ball much more next year.

 

[Gwedd]

Agreed. As I mentioned in a previous post, being the nominal #1 in this RBBC does not mean alot. Each of these guys have different strengths and BB will use those strengths as he game plans each week. There may be games where BJGE gets his usual 18-22 carries, there will be others where he'll get 8. Having said that, I would be surprised if they didnt run the ball much more next year.

Also agree. Coach will use whichever back he feels gives him the best shot in a particular situation. It's why he preaches situational football all the time and gets folks thinking about all sorts of permutations.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Having said that, I would be surprised if they didnt run the ball much more next year.

I'm not sure they will run the ball that much more actually because of offensive game planning. I think they will run more because the defense will have improved and they will have more opportunities as opposed to putting the shackles on TB.

My logic.

Lets look at runs per year in the BB era:

2010- 454
2009- 466
2008- 513
2007- 451
2006- 499
2005- 439
2004- 524
2003- 473
2002- 395
2001- 473
2000- 424

Ave: 464

Last year they ran 46% of the time. With a great passer like TB, thats ok. However they only ran 986 plays from scrimmage- the lowest since 2001 and lost the ToP battle for the 1st time since 2002. What does that mean?

1) Defense can't get off the field?
2) Offense scored too quick and alot of garbage time ToP by opposing offenses in the 4th qtr?
3) Running game couldn't/didn't need to sustain drives?
4) Convert on 3rd down?

Last year the Pats had the 3rd fewest # of 3rd down attempts (but were 4th in conversions). They are sandwiched b/t/w CLE and CHI. Colts, Packers and Chargers are in the bottom 1/3 as well (Colts and Chargers were in top 10 in successes too). That tells me something- the 2010 Pats offense was ridiculously efficient (we knew this). By comparison, the 2007 offense finished 31st in 3rd down att. (Colts were 23rd)

2010- Ave .90 points a minute/ToP
2001- Ave .88 points a minute/ToP

Note: The 07 team had a ToP approx 3min more than the 2010 team. Here is why.

1st downs allowed defense per game:
07- 17.4
10- 21.8

Conclusion: 2010 offense was arguably the most efficient of all-time and comparable to the 07 offense. However, it's the defense. Not stopping on 3rd down killed the ToP.

 

[IcyPatriot]

The picks had less to do with BJGE and Woodhead and more to do with Belichick being tired of having to make do with just two active RBs at a time.

This ... also healthy competition is best for the team and schemes.

 

[ausbacker]

Let me qualify that I like the LawFirm as a Patriot. He does everything that is asked of him and is hard working sponge. The next point becomes as a dynamic playmaker I'm not sure he has that ability and is limited in what he can offer the Pats. Any opportunity to upgrade a particular skill set at any position has to be endorsed for the team to improve.

The more I think on it the more you realize the genius of BB. He addresses things which are blatantly there in front of us yet seem to get thrown down the level of needs because it's not the #1 perceived need we're told about.

 

[bucky]

In essence you are content with the Patriot's backfield as currently constituted- even though the Jets dared the Pats to run all day.

I never said that. I was just replying to a post that claimed the Pats' offense was easy to read and predictable. And it was nothing of the sort. In terms of the talent, BJGE can certainly be upgraded. Whether or not that happened is obviously TBD.

 

[Kasmir]

Well, we disagree. The yardage was a product of carries, not greatness.

You conclude that based on what? Football Outsiders rated BJGE the #2 back in the league last year in effectiveness per carry:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

 

[JoeSixPat]

At the start of last year the Patriots' backfield looked like this:

Fred Taylor, 35
Sammy Morris, 34
Kevin Faulk, 34
BenJarvis Green-Ellis, 25
Danny Woodhead, 26

Exactly - not sure why it took 4 posts to bring out this point but Belichick didn't draft young RBs to replace his young RBs - he drafted young RBs to replace old RBs.

If there's been any speculation to the contrary I haven't heard it.

 

[Kasmir]

A low 2nd and a mid 3rd = "high picks"?

Well, I watched the games and I saw Woodhead run plenty of times INSIDE. And his splits show that as well.

Danny Woodhead Splits - New England Patriots - ESPN

When you look at the splits, many of his runs came Up the middle, or to the left or right sides. If I remember correctly, the middle = "A" gaps, Sides=B gaps, and outside = c/d gaps = outside the tackles.

In fact, he had his most success running to the right (Hello Vollmer)..

The problem with BJGE is that he's got one speed. He's not terribly fast, but not terrilby slow either. He'll hit you. And he won't drop the ball.

Vereen and Ridley both have more agility than BJGE. Both have the ability to step up and become significant parts of this offense. It is safe to say that the Passing game is where BJGE is lacking. Both in terms of blitz pick-up and catching out of the backfield.

How things shake out will be interesting to watch. I think that all 4 guys will push one another.

Woodhead was indeed an effective runner inside. A Bruschi observed last season, he has very powerful legs and very effectively fights for extra yardage inside.

The concern with Woodhead is all about durability precisely because he runs hard and inside. But he was a staggeringly effective. Few folks realize that when he was knocked out of the Buffalo game last year, he was within 3 carries of qualifying for Foootball Outsider's leaderboard. If he had qualified, he would have set the all-time record for effectiveness in their system.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Danny's a great and extremely versatile back, but it's highly questionable whether he stand up to the pounding of being a feature back in the NFL. Platooning him with BJGE and Vereen makes a lot of sense.

 

[Synovia]

1st downs allowed defense per game:
07- 17.4
10- 21.8

Did you go ahead and normalize that by number of possesions?

 

[Sciz]

Danny's a great and extremely versatile back, but it's highly questionable whether he stand up to the pounding of being a feature back in the NFL. Platooning him with BJGE and Vereen makes a lot of sense.

Exactly. Predraft, I was a strong supporter of getting Vereen, because he's pretty similar to Woodhead as an RB with the ability to run inside, run outside, catch the ball, and pass protect all very effectively, but with durability concerns. You know how you deal with durability concerns? You get two RBs like that!

 

[serifyn]

Consider BJGE

- Never Fumbles
- Is Decisive
- good outside runner
- Has been durable
- shows adequate blocking skills
- gains positive yardage.

Belichick will put the ball in BJGE hands because he knows BJGE wont put it on the ground, his ball security is great and he has been in the system long enough to know all of the plays.

BJGE will be the starter in the patriots offense, woodhead and vereen will back him up or change up for pass threat plays, but i think BJGE is the most well rounded at this point.

 

[patsinthesnow]

This is off this discussion but did anyone know the BJGE has become a twitter nut?

Twitter

He joined a week ago and has made a ton of tweets. Hope he doesn't pull a Rashard Mendenhall.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Did you go ahead and normalize that by number of possesions?

Nah. Would have made sense though but I figured 4 more 1st downs allowed per game allowed proved my point enough. With that said the 07 D allowed 933 plays/58 per game compared to 1056 allowed by the 2010 D which translates to allowing 66 plays a game.

Considering that they 2010 D was on the field 3 more minutes, allowed 4 more 1st downs a game and essentially another whole scoring drive a game (8 more plays per game), shows how much forcing turnovers really bailed out that D.

 

[TheSolderKing]

law firm will no doubt have less carries, which in my opinion is a good thing because you will be more fresh. I see another great year for him

 

[RobertWeathers]

Consider BJGE

- Never Fumbles
- Is Decisive
- good outside runner
- Has been durable
- shows adequate blocking skills
- gains positive yardage.

Belichick will put the ball in BJGE hands because he knows BJGE wont put it on the ground, his ball security is great and he has been in the system long enough to know all of the plays.

BJGE will be the starter in the patriots offense, woodhead and vereen will back him up or change up for pass threat plays, but i think BJGE is the most well rounded at this point.

Loaded question....

Providing that the kids play to their potential, when do they start taking his carries? This year? Next year (if BJGE is with the team)?

IMO you don't draft two RBs in the 2rd and 3rd rd to be backups getting 30-60 carries next year. You bring up BJGEs strengths, but the guy is not a game breaker or someone that can periodically carry the offense if need be. I am convinced BB wants this as TB gets longer in to the tooth.

 

[eom]

I keep asking myself what is so wrong with BJGE that we HAD to draft two running backs high. Two very good running backs.

So what is wrong with BJGE? Ive killed myself in figuring out what is so wrong with his game. And my prayers were finally answered over the weekend. After countless hours of listening to phone interviews and reading transcripts and adding 2 + 2 equals 246. It was said.

stop the madness.