1st round 'stud' CBs often bust. I don't know why exactly, but they do. I think the FO is good at picking DB talent in general. Except for Guss Scott and Dexter Reid. They were turds.
But alot of it is experience...Samuel has it and a draft pick wouldn't. It's too much to expect a draft pick to come in and play that well right away, I would think. Although Hobbs has played OK...he hasn't not played well due to not understanding the system, IMO.
Anyway, what I don't get is where the money goes if they don't spend it? They have alot of cap space this year and only at 77M or something next year (albeit with no rookies signed and no TBC, Samuel, Graham, etc.). So they have a huge amount of cap space to play with. A $30M 5 year contract with the last year at 8M is only 4M a year really.
So I think they could sign him to a good contract, almost as much as someone else would. If they offered him a contract like that tomorrow, how many people could turn down a signing bonus check for 6-8M or so? Bird in the hand factor.
I don't think he's THAT great, but interceptions are very important and he seems to have learned how to get them better. The pats could proably bring another CB up to speed, but it just takes a while. They don't have the luxury of time...without Samuel it's GAy, Hobbs, and the punt returning rookie. And maybe a 30 something chad scott. Not good.
Maybe Wilson could play CB and they could pick up another safety verteran in the offseason. They're a little cheaper than CBs.
2005
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 6 Adam Jones CB West Virginia
1 8 Antrel Rolle CB Miami
1 9 Carlos Rogers CB Auburn
1 23 Fabian Washington CB Nebraska
1 29 Marlin Jackson CB Michigan
2004
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 8 DeAngelo Hall CB Virginia Tech
1 10 Dunta Robinson CB South Carolina
1 25 Ahmad Carroll CB Arkansas
1 28 Chris Gamble CB Ohio State
2003
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 5 Terence Newman CB Kansas State
1 11 Marcus Trufant CB Washington State
1 28 Andre Woolfolk CB Oklahoma
1 30 Sammy Davis CB Texas A&M
1 31 Nnamdi Asomugha CB California
2002
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 5 Quentin Jammer CB Texas
1 17 Phillip Buchanon CB Miami
1 26 Lito Sheppard CB Florida
1 21 Nate Clements CB Ohio State
1 22 Will Allen CB Syracuse
1 24 Willie Middlebrooks CB Minnesota
1 26 Jamar Fletcher CB Wisconsin
2000
Rd Sel# Player Pos. School
1 15 Deltha O'Neal CB California
1 23 Rashard Anderson CB Jackson State
1 24 Ahmed Plummer CB Ohio State
1 7 Champ Bailey CB Georgia
1 10 Chris McAlister CB Arizona
1 23 Antoine Winfield CB Ohio State
1 26 Fernando Bryant CB Alabama
I'd say the bust to production ratio is half and I think that is true of any position. I'm confident if there is a guy there the Pats will trade up a few spots to get him or trade down as not to overvalue him.