It is OVER A YEAR until the first day of the 2011 training camp. The players are already talking about a six year deal. The stumbling block is NOT about total monies but about how much financial information the owrners will divulge. The various percentages given for player revenue are there because different portions of revenue are counted, and some are not known. For example, is parking revenue counted?
Personally, I think that it is enormously positive that the nfl is doing very well and that the parties are even talking over a year before the end of current arrangement. The owners have cash flow protection from the contract with the networks, which they would pay back over time by giving credits to the networks. The players have cash flow protection through their strike fund.
As always, there will be the usual issues: percentage of revenues, which revenue are counted, free agency details (why bother with RFA when the teams don't bother), franchise tag details, pension amounts, full partial or no rookie pay schedule, cap details, potential team moves and league support for such moves, and league and player disciplinary policies. This is a normal list. The nfl has the CBA, so we are only talking about revisions.
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If this were July 1st 2011, I would be mildly optimistic about the season starting on time and the effect of lost practice time on player development. With this being July 1, 2010, it is waaaaaaaaay premature to think that there will be the first player stoppage since 1987.
BTW, I would note that in the strikes of 1982 and 1987, the entire season was NOT lost. In 1982, weeks 3-10 were lost. In 1987, the first few weeks were played with replacement players and the players came back on October 15th to play the rest of the season.
It seems the most likely WORST CASE SCENARIO is a 10 week season.