Huge pressure on this year's draft

[tombonneau]

Well, with the Fish nabbing Marshall and the Jets getting Holmes, there is potential that both those offenses took huge leaps forward.

Meanwhile, the Pats -- not to criticize their approach to the offseason, this is a simple fact -- have instead opted to make a few low key signing and focus on their money on retaining their core FAs. This is a valid approach, albeit not a sexy one for fans.

However, what it does, IMO, is turn a huge amount of pressure on the FO to really nail this draft. By not being active in free agency, the Pats pretty much painted themselves into a corner that they need to draft:

OLB
WR
TE

And not only do they have to draft these players, they will need these players to be making contributions immediately. TE isn't as important if Crumpler can still play, but the second TE will still see plenty of snaps.

WR & OLB, however, should be spots where rookies are playing considerable time, if not starting. Of course, that is is no other moves are made. But if they aren't, the only way for the Pats to improve their starting roster is by nailing both those positions in the draft. I hope they're up for it ...

 

[JackBauer]

Well, the thing is, who's to say the Patriots don't plan on being active in FA? As near as I can tell, FA isn't exactly over, is it?

 

[crowell33]

Well, the thing is, who's to say the Patriots don't plan on being active in FA? As near as I can tell, FA isn't exactly over, is it?

I have seen the remaining F/A list. The remaining names appear to be veteran minimum type signings ( Pierce, Holt, Coles, Bullock, Owens, Taylor, etc. ).

There is also the possibility that someone may (or may not) be cut from another team's roster that the Patriots find desirable. ( Although the Patriots would, of course, then have to bid against the other 31 teams for that player as well ).

 

[Marqui]

I thought the Pats had a very good draft last year so hopefully that success can carry over..

 

[JackBauer]

I have seen the remaining F/A list. The remaining names appear to be veteran minimum type signings ( Pierce, Holt, Coles, Bullock, Owens, Taylor, etc. ).

There is also the possibility that someone may (or may not) be cut from another team's roster that the Patriots find desirable. ( Although the Patriots would, of course, then have to bid against the other 31 teams for that player as well ).

The Pats could also trade one of their second rounders for a player. Who knows what sort of shenanigans may occur?

Maybe the Dolphins will trade us Ginn for a 7th round pick.

 

[Kontradiction]

I would still love to see T.O. brought in as our WR3.

 

[Marqui]

Bill Belichick likes where Pats stand - BostonHerald.com

And it doesn't exactly sound like Belichick is planning to trade away the picks for veterans. But you never know I guess.

 

[patsfan-1982]

I would still love to see T.O. brought in as our WR3.

i agree give T.O a one year deal. and the pats can use ther first 4 picks on DE. OLB and RB.

 

[Spiral]

First, I don't think the Patriots have painted themselves into a corner. They'd be in a corner if they had traded away a bunch of draft picks, leaving them no room for error with any of their picks. If anything, I think the opposite is true.

Second, I think there is going to be a lot of trading for players after day 1 and day 2 of the draft. There are a lot of players who have been dumped this off-season for salary reasons. My guess is that there are a lot of salaries out there that teams would like to get rid of, but think they could get something in return. My guess is that for economic reasons there are a number of teams that would be willing to trade productive, relatively high-salaried players for mid to low-round draft picks. It wouldn't surprise me in the least to see BB pick up a couple of starting caliber veterans during the last two days of this draft. I think people will be surprised by some of the names of players being dealt during the draft.

 

[tombonneau]

I thought the Pats had a very good draft last year so hopefully that success can carry over..

This is what gives me hope. It looks like his first draft without SP that BB has hit two home runs in Edleman & Vollmer, with Butler showing starting potential. Chung a bit of a mystery still and Brace is looking like the only bad apple in the bunch, but even he could turn it around.

So yes, that gives a fan hope that BB can nail a couple of those picks to refresh the team's talent pool. I just hope he doesn't pass on LB talent in the first two rounds over and over again like last year, when just about any of those LBs would have been starting on the NEP.

 

[tombonneau]

First, I don't think the Patriots have painted themselves into a corner. They'd be in a corner if they had traded away a bunch of draft picks, leaving them no room for error with any of their picks. If anything, I think the opposite is true.

I'd argue they painted themselves into a corner. Let's put it this way and assume they don't sign a TO or comparable LB to compete for a starting spot.

That means if they don't draft a starting WR or LB in the upcoming draft, they go into the season with Pierre Woods and Sam Aiken in the starting lineup. That's painting yourself into a corner.

 

[Rob0729]

Personally, I don't think the Pats have anymore pressure today than they had last week. The goal of the Patriots is to get the best players possible help this team win a championship not out maneuver the Jets or Dolphins. Belichick's goal going into the offseason was to get this team to a point that they can get 12 plus wins and compete for a Super Bowl and that goal hasn't changed even with the addition of Holmes and Marshall to the division.

 

[tombonneau]

Personally, I don't think the Pats have anymore pressure today than they had last week. The goal of the Patriots is to get the best players possible help this team win a championship not out maneuver the Jets or Dolphins. Belichick's goal going into the offseason was to get this team to a point that they can get 12 plus wins and compete for a Super Bowl and that goal hasn't changed even with the addition of Holmes and Marshall to the division.

I'd say his goal has been made harder this week, as (unless these knuckleheads get suspended) four (maybe three?) games this season will now be more difficult.

I would also wager heavily that the Dolphins & Jets will average more points this season, which means in the Patriots need to score more in their games against them.

While yes, the overall goal of the Patriots to assemble the best team possible hasn't changed, with the improvements in the division, the team now has to be that much better to reach that goal.

Thank god for the Bills ....

 

[Marqui]

Belichick doesn't see any fits in restricted free agency

 

[Rob0729]

I'd say his goal has been made harder this week, as (unless these knuckleheads get suspended) four (maybe three?) games this season will now be more difficult.

I would also wager heavily that the Dolphins & Jets will average more points this season, which means in the Patriots need to score more in their games against them.

While yes, the overall goal of the Patriots to assemble the best team possible hasn't changed, with the improvements in the division, the team now has to be that much better to reach that goal.

Thank god for the Bills ....

Well, unless the Dolphins do some significant improvements with their defense, they will be giving up more points each game. Besides, they finished three games back of the Patriots last year. They had a decent amount of catching up to do before the start of the offseason.

Personally, I still question how good the Jets will be (at the end of the year were they the team that backed into the playoffs and didn't really deserve to get there or where they the team that got hot in the playoff). I am not as enamored with their pick ups as a lot (other than maybe Holmes).

Still again, you don't make move based on reactions of the other teams in your division. You focus on getting your own team better. We find out every year that anything can happen in the NFL. Both the Jets could have 12 plus wins or have 4-5 wins. Worrying about them now is an exercise in futility for Belichick. If Belichick made draft picks for direct responses to the Jets and/or Dolphins, I would be more nervous than if they just went in with their current draft board and made the same moves that they were planning before this week started.

 

[tombonneau]

Well, unless the Dolphins do some significant improvements with their defense, they will be giving up more points each game. Besides, they finished three games back of the Patriots last year. They had a decent amount of catching up to do before the start of the offseason.

Personally, I still question how good the Jets will be (at the end of the year were they the team that backed into the playoffs and didn't really deserve to get there or where they the team that got hot in the playoff). I am not as enamored with their pick ups as a lot (other than maybe Holmes).

Still again, you don't make move based on reactions of the other teams in your division. You focus on getting your own team better. We find out every year that anything can happen in the NFL. Both the Jets could have 12 plus wins or have 4-5 wins. Worrying about them now is an exercise in futility for Belichick. If Belichick made draft picks for direct responses to the Jets and/or Dolphins, I would be more nervous than if they just went in with their current draft board and made the same moves that they were planning before this week started.

I hope you are right. Andy Hart actually summed up quite well how I feel about the recent moves and how it impacts the Patriots:

Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog Blog Archive From the Hart: Dolphins have Marshall plan

In terms of the moves for wide receivers in Miami and New York, my take is simple. The Patriots sure as heck better get a better pass rush this coming fall or they’re in trouble. I don’t care how young or inexperienced Chad Henne and Mark Sanchez are, if they have time they now have the legit weapons to make a lot of plays through the air. Both teams now have receiving corps that can challenge a secondary deep, underneath and in the middle of the field. That makes it very hard to stop an opposing offense, just ask people who’ve dealt with Randy Moss and Wes Welker in recent years.

 

[spacecrime]

the Pats pretty much painted themselves into a corner that they need to draft:

OLB
WR
TE

And not only do they have to draft these players, ..

last I checked, the trading deadline has not passed and neither has free agency.

There are a lot of teams looking to dump a lot of players that just haven't done it yet because there is no cap for them to stay under.

The Pats are not going into the season with AD unless there are horrible LB injuries. Other teams are in the same position. Never before have they had the luxury of keeping unwanted players until the last minute because they had to be under the cap.

Look for a LOT of players to be dumped the end of August. Someone will snap up AD and benefit. Who will we snap up? I don't know, but there will be some, so to say the Patriots can only get players via the draft is incorrect.

You also ignore trades. Late trades the last few years include Cory Dillon, Ted Washington and Randy Moss. Let's not pretend these trades didn't happen late because they did. As of this date, none of those players were on a Pats roster, yet they were obtained.

Lastly, as far as pressure goes, it is the Jets and Fins under all the pressure. I still think the Pats are the best team in the divison, but will grant that it could be up for grabs. If so, one of Pats-Jets-Fins needs to come out of the draft stronger than the others.

But the pressure is not equal.



The Dolphins have only two picks in the first three rounds:
#12
#73

The Jets are in worse shape. THey have 2 picks in the first three rounds, and they aren't too good.
#29
#61

The Pats have 4 picks in the first three rounds, and they are pretty good ones.
#22
#44
#44
#47

They pick FOUR times before the Jets or Fins get to use their second pick.

If the Pats use one of their second rounders for a quality WR (pretty easy as Holmes went for a 5th rnd and Marshall for a pair of 2's, one this year one next), then the Pats will be the equal or better of the three and still have better picks that the Jets Dolphins.

If the pats draft poorly and only hit on half their early picks, the Jets and Fins cannot afford a single misstep - they must be PERFECT to keep even.

If the Pats his on 3 of 4, the Jets and Fins fall behind as they cannot match that with only two picks.

I'm a Pats fan (Pats fans are sometimes called homers here) but I'm not berift of thought processes.

I am fully aware that if the situation were reversed, if the Pats had two high picks and the Jets and Fins each had four, the same people who say the Pats are in trouble...would still say the Pats are in trouble. Even though the situation was exactly reversed.

Why is this? I wish I knew. In the case of DI and his ilk, he's just a pot stirrer. I doubt he believes anything he types. As long as he can brush the Cheetos dust off his keyboard and troll for responses he's happy. But some people are sincere in their belief that the Pats are behind the eight ball because their have 4 high draft picks, and I just don't understand.

 

[BadMoFo]

I hope you are right. Andy Hart actually summed up quite well how I feel about the recent moves and how it impacts the Patriots:

Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog Blog Archive From the Hart: Dolphins have Marshall plan

Let me answer for MLR and Robo: He doesn't know what he's talking about. We are in perfect shape now. Super Bowl here we come.

 

[Metaphors]

Well, with the Fish nabbing Marshall and the Jets getting Holmes, there is potential that both those offenses took huge leaps forward.

Meanwhile, the Pats -- not to criticize their approach to the offseason, this is a simple fact -- have instead opted to make a few low key signing and focus on their money on retaining their core FAs. This is a valid approach, albeit not a sexy one for fans.

However, what it does, IMO, is turn a huge amount of pressure on the FO to really nail this draft. By not being active in free agency, the Pats pretty much painted themselves into a corner that they need to draft:

OLB
WR
TE

Your post presumes that the Jets and Fins hit on their FA acquisitions. They have incurred risk as well and any one of them could blow up in their faces. Each of the signings we have talked about (Cromartie, LdT, Pool, Holmes, Marshall) have significant baggage that made them available in the first place. Even Dansby is a long-term risk due to the size of his contract.

The thing to realize is that outside of Dansby, the Jets and Fins weren't "top bidders"...they were effectively the only bidders, or at least the only bidders not low-balling the contracts/compensation. Anyone with a reasonable market for their services doesn't last long. All of these players could have been had by anyone over a month ago.

So while I agree the Pats have to nail this draft (and the previous one and the next one), it is because they have focused their assets there. They made the determination that these 3 years will yield the core of their team moving forward. 10-15 players (out of about 30 drafted) that better deliver the goods. That is a significant hit rate and gives you an indication of the confidence Belichick has in these classes.

The Fins and Jets need a near 100% hit rate on their trades/signings. That is also a significant hit rate and gives you an indication of their confidence in the players involved. My point is that assessment for these players is far from unanimous and history tends to point to a reasonable chance of negative outcomes.

Belichick is investing in large cap stocks and Jets/Fins are investing in toxic real estate assets. Remember, a lot of us could have financed the purchase of the Silverdome last year. Doesn't mean it would have been a good move. Even though it would make sleepovers for the kids much easier.

 

[signbabybrady]

I dont think the pressure is on the draft as much as player developement.

The thoery this offseason as the OP stated was to retain the core players and use Krafts cash on our own talent. The draft was there regardless of how we spent the FA money (whether on our own or on other big names).

But by saying the money should go to the guys on your roster that have earned it here you are saying that the team can improve itself by getting better inhouse and you don't need big free agents.

As the OP stated there is nothing wrong with the philosphy but it does put pressure on guys already on the roster to step up and fill the problem areas and pressure on the coaches and trainors to improve the talent or else we will be relying on rookies to improve the team. IMO the front office must feel good about its youth because they are risking alot on them.