moving up for a "sure thing"

[ctpatsfan77]

And as the contract costs of first round picks is increasing very fast (look at the increases in guaranteed dollars) - I expect Bill to continue this for the forseeable future , unless a rookie salary wage is instituted. There is diminishing value in first round picks as these first round contracts continue to increase at a faster rate than other round contracts (again see the guaranteed dollars increases).

It's increasing, but not nearly as much near the bottom of the round. A five-year contract at #22 would run somewhere on the order of $10M/5y. Even the #10 contracts are only about double that number (see Mayo, Jerod).

 

[SunnyDenmark]

It's increasing, but not nearly as much near the bottom of the round. A five-year contract at #22 would run somewhere on the order of $10M/5y. Even the #10 contracts are only about double that number (see Mayo, Jerod).

Interesting observation. With a referance point of say - last 4-6 years (when the guaranteed amounts started to really shoot upwards), you maybe quite right about the % amount of increase (from one year to the next). Again referring to only the first round. But actually $ amounts - I still think it would be in the top half of the first round instead of the lower half.

But either way (% increase or actual dollar amounts) - I think my point is still valid. That being that the value of the first round picks (vs. 2nd ) has DECLINED in last several years due to the high rate of contract increases (especially guaranteed dollars). Has the ability levels of 1st round talent risen commenserate with the contracts increases year after year? NO - which is why I like the 2nd rounders better. And I think that is why BB has traded down/ out of first round more than traded up. Second round is where the better value is - and even moreso if this years draft is as deep as some are saying.