Bill Simmons "hears" that Moss and AD are gone, BB is "blowing it up"

[JR4]

His favorite receiver is STILL the open one. Some of you can't accept the fact that NO ONE aside from Moss and Welker could get open this season. It's easier to live in the fantasy world of years past where they had a WORSE passing offense than they have had with Moss/Welker I guess.

Maybe we didn't watch the same games. I can remember often saying
xxxx was wide open during this season. Brady stays with his two favorite
guys longer than he should. Often it works because one or the other gets
somewhat open. But he misses wide open receivers because of it.
If I had the inclinated to do I could go back over all my recorded games
and get some film to show you but I don't have the time or inclination.

The problem with Brady doing this is that his offense becomes easier to
defend. Just on the probabilities alone.

 

[emoney_33]

Maybe we didn't watch the same games. I can remember often saying
xxxx was wide open during this season. Brady stays with his two favorite
guys longer than he should. Often it works because one or the other gets
somewhat open. But he misses wide open receivers because of it.
If I had the inclinated to do I could go back over all my recorded games
and get some film to show you but I don't have the time or inclination.

It's been proven that the human memory is incapable of accurately analyzing these things. There were plenty of times in years past (yes 2003/2004) where a guy was open in the flat or on the other side of the field and Brady didn't find him. As good as Brady is, he really is not perfect. He does make mistakes, and always has.

In years past some used to complain about the offense because we didn't have a legitimate deep threat so defenses keyed in on the underneath stuff and the run. Also it is required for any offense to attempt deep passes even if they aren't wide open to keep defenses honest. And yes even when there may be a guy open for an easy 2-4 yards.

The problem with Brady doing this is that his offense becomes easier to defend. Just on the probabilities alone.

There's a big difference between "in theory" and "in practice". This may sound logical, but it's been proven to be false. This offense is NOT easier to defend than the 2001-2003 offenses. I leave out 2004 because that consisted of Dillon's awesome year and an amazingly balanced attack. If we could get a Dillon 2004 type year from a running back, I would absolutely LOVE it. If the argument is that we need a stronger running game, I am with you 100%.

However the passing offense did not produce nearly as much in any year aside from 2007. This is also coming in a year that consisted of the most difficult pass defense schedule of the last 17 years, not just for the Patriots but of any team in the NFL. Even with that schedule, and the 2nd half struggles, and all the complaints of how terrible and predictable the offense was... we still led the league in TOP, were 3rd in Yards and 6th in Points. I know it's amazing because the human memory isn't capable of analyzing accurately, so it seems like those numbers just aren't right. But they are, they trully are.

 

[bakes781]

With Tom Brady behind center this is always going to be a pass 1st offense, so the argument for a "stud RB" is moot IMO. When they did run the ball it was generally effective. The problem is they don't run enough. With this team the passing game is supposed to setup the run game, but with Brady and Moss not connecting like they have in the past it made the entire offensive gameplan suffer. Randy was essentially a possession receiver this season.

 

[teknos1s]

Although moss will go down as one of the all time greats i wouldnt mind seeing him go, as long as we can pick up two decent WRS in the offseason. Moss is a specialized WR and hes good at what he does (if teams let him) we see that the NFL has caught and on the bracketing and physicallness gets to him. And watching the games i see that there are alot of wasted downs throwning to him - the routes he runs are high risk high reward but it also means low percentage completion routes - we cant waste downs in this offense. Moss could be AMAZING if he just worked on a few little things (like not having t-rex arms on his deep routes sometimes we do see him outstretch for the ball but from what ive seen of late is just a bunch of trex arms.)

what we need is one or two recievers who arents as specialized in what they do. guys who can do what welker does and what moss can do - maybe not as good as them at both but can do both jobs decently well. This will leave the defences wondering how to play the coverage. We saw this with good success with givens, gafney, brown, and branch ect. Being too specialized in your skill set isnt a good thing, just ask the neandrothals - the ice age ended and they died out. well our offense had a nice run in the 07 style but we have to evolve now to a more balanced attack or we're screwed. I want to see WRS who will put it on the line, turn around, and reach for the ball at its highest point

 

[emoney_33]

With Tom Brady behind center this is always going to be a pass 1st offense, so the argument for a "stud RB" is moot IMO. When they did run the ball it was generally effective. The problem is they don't run enough. With this team the passing game is supposed to setup the run game, but with Brady and Moss not connecting like they have in the past it made the entire offensive gameplan suffer. Randy was essentially a possession receiver this season.

83 receptions, 1264 yards, 15.2 AVG, 13 TD, 18 receptions of 20+ yards.

 

[emoney_33]

Although moss will go down as one of the all time greats i wouldnt mind seeing him go, as long as we can pick up two decent WRS in the offseason. Moss is a specialized WR and hes good at what he does (if teams let him) we see that the NFL has caught and on the bracketing and physicallness gets to him. And watching the games i see that there are alot of wasted downs throwning to him - the routes he runs are high risk high reward but it also means low percentage completion routes - we cant waste downs in this offense. Moss could be AMAZING if he just worked on a few little things (like not having t-rex arms on his deep routes sometimes we do see him outstretch for the ball but from what ive seen of late is just a bunch of trex arms.)

what we need is one or two recievers who arents as specialized in what they do. guys who can do what welker does and what moss can do - maybe not as good as them at both but can do both jobs decently well. This will leave the defences wondering how to play the coverage. We saw this with good success with givens, gafney, brown, and branch ect. Being too specialized in your skill set isnt a good thing, just ask the neandrothals - the ice age ended and they died out. well our offense had a nice run in the 07 style but we have to evolve now to a more balanced attack or we're screwed. I want to see WRS who will put it on the line, turn around, and reach for the ball at its highest point

Look at the numbers please...

Brady's completion % was 2nd best of his career, so much for "wasting throws on low percentage plays".

Moss/Fitzgerald:

83, 1264, 15.2 average, 13 TD
97, 1092, 11.3 average, 13 TD

Fitzgerald last 4 games of the season:
2/22, 4/36, 5/48, 3/17

Wow, even Fitzgerald had a stretch of not-so-great games!? No way! That only happens to t-rex armed dog-fakers like Moss!



Oh wait you talk about the sucess of Givens, Branch etc... If the defense didn't win some of those games, you wouldn't be speaking so highly of them. Just look at the Titans game in the 03 playoffs where Branch had 11 yards and Givens about 26? Yeah, let's keep pretending the past was something it wasn't. The DEFENSE of 2003/2004 was very good and opportunistic, why people continuously want to yearn for the old days of a lesser offense is beyond me.

 

[MassPats38]

Moss, however, is another story. It would not make any sense whatsoever to get rid of (outside of Brady) the biggest weapon you have on offense when he is still capable of generating 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdown receptions and has one more year left on his contract with the NFL going into (what looks like) an uncapped season. No sense.

Agreed. Moss was brought in because of 2006. It appears BB, prior to that year, did not value high profile/high price receivers, figuring precise timing routes (a la Bill Walsh) would make up for receiver ability, much as he did not value high priced defensive backs (if you pressure the QB, a better than average DB can cover a receiver). Moss is still a physical freak, even if age has slowed him down a bit. If you dump him and don't have Welker, the team regresses to its offense in 2006 and Brady is spending the season trying to get timing patterns down with a brand new set of receivers. I cannot see BB repeating that history without a power running back capable of turning the offense into a primary running threat and thereby taking defensive heat off the passing game.

 

[teknos1s]

Im not one to look too much into stats and never have been because i dont think they tell the real truth. Im not saying we're getting larry fitz but we need someone who can play both games short and long - and btw id go out on a limb and say most would prefer larry fitz over moss. I just chose that picture of him as an example of how a WR should be outstretched for a ball - something i didnt see moss do in crucial times enough this season or last - i feel he has always mostly depended on his speed to again seperation and thats what allows him to keep his elbows in and hands open to bring in catches. point blank is that stats can say all they want but when you dont punch it in, you dont make that one crucial play when it needs to be made, that 90yd drive with 10/11 completions doesnt mean jack - bradys completion percentage doesnt mean much of anything to me really because stats DO lie - we just couldnt make the plays when we needed them this season. Teams of the past maybe didnt have as good of stats but hell how many times did we say "wow! they actually pulled it off" in crucial situations? thats why tom got his rep as being clutch, not cause of his stats, but cause of his ability to make the ONE play at a crucial point

 

[emoney_33]

Im not one to look too much into stats and never have been because i dont think they tell the real truth. Im not saying we're getting larry fitz but we need someone who can play both games short and long - and btw id go out on a limb and say most would prefer larry fitz over moss. I just chose that picture of him as an example of how a WR should be outstretched for a ball - something i didnt see moss do in crucial times enough this season or last - i feel he has always mostly depended on his speed to again seperation and thats what allows him to keep his elbows in and hands open to bring in catches. point blank is that stats can say all they want but when you dont punch it in, you dont make that one crucial play when it needs to be made, that 90yd drive with 10/11 completions doesnt mean jack - bradys completion percentage doesnt mean much of anything to me really because stats DO lie - we just couldnt make the plays when we needed them this season. Teams of the past maybe didnt have as good of stats but hell how many times did we say "wow! they actually pulled it off" in crucial situations? thats why tom got his rep as being clutch, not cause of his stats, but cause of his ability to make the ONE play at a crucial point

Well to ignore stats is to allow yourself to create mistruths and come to false conclusions. Much like the fake "they can't make plays often but they can always make it when it counts" argument. There is no such thing as an ability to make ONE play at a crucial time while failing to make plays at any other time consistently. If we lost the 2003 playoffs Titans game would you say Branch and Givens couldn't make one play when it mattered? Combined they had < 40 yards. Yet you sit there and claim that they are better for the team because they always make a play when it counts. If the defense faultered and let the Titans score 21 instead of 14, then you don't get that 100+ yard superbowl from Branch and then what are you saying?

Fitz is awesome no doubt, but you post 2 pictures. One of a high arching throw dropping into Randy's arms with a GREAT play by the DB to knock it down and one of a higher further throw where Fitz couldn't reach it unless he leaped for it. You act as if it shows Moss' inability when part of his great talent is his ability to never tip the defender off that the ball is about to come into his arms. We've seen tons of plays like that go for completions and TDs, but you only care about the failures? What about when Fitz jumps and DOESN'T come down with it, does that mean he is bad or shouldn't jump?

The fact of the matter is that stats are facts, you can interpret them in various ways, but when you throw them out because they directly prove your argument wrong then that's just of ignorance is bliss.

There's no two ways about it, you claimed that Brady throws too many low percentage passes Moss' way and it's better to throw high percentage passes to Branch/Givens. Yet the FACT is that there was a HIGHER percentage of completions when utilizing Moss/Welker vs. Branch/Givens

 

[VJCPatriot]

Actually what Moss does is wait till the last second to reach for the ball. The reason he does this is so that he doesn't clue the CB in on when the ball will be coming. It's a veteran move designed to deceive the DB and has nothing to do with his willingness to extend his arms for the football. He has made some amazing catches look easy, some one handed grabs are included in that assortment that most receivers just CANNOT come close to doing.



I think that even if Moss has been slowed by injury this season his production has been pretty amazing. Moss is the reason that Welker is so successful. How we can continually praise Welker and dump on Moss without acknowledging that Moss' presence contributes to Welker's success is beyond me.

I think people are still hung up on his image from his Oakland days. Both BB and Brady have continually said that is not true, that Moss is one of the most intelligent WRs they've ever had and a hard worker. So I'll choose to believe BB, Brady, and the numbers which are pretty darn good, rather than some biased and frustrated message board posters who just want to lay all the blame on Randy for this entire up and down season.

PS It was our offensive line that failed us in the game vs the Ravens more than anything. If you give Brady time to throw he wouldn't have coughed up the ball so often. That early deficit caused by turnovers was too much to overcome.

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

I would be shocked if Moss is gone, then agan, I think this off-season is going to have lots of "OMG" moments team wise. Hopefully all positive...

I thought Seymour gone was an OMG moment

 

[teknos1s]

Firstly i never said randy was bad - i even said he'll go down as one of the all time greats - and hes still good now. But in reference to that first picture. The guy is 6'5 and apparently has a verticle out of this world - im sorry but that is a catch if he turned around and jumped up to grab it at its highest point. if stats are important than i can think of no stat more important than the stat of keeping drives alive, espeicially on 3rd down - moss is Tied 19th in that department with about only one a game - 17. or % of catches caught while targeted? he isnt even in the top 20

hes great with the deep ball no doubt - could he be better with more aggressivness with boxing out - jumping and outreaching in those routes? IMO yes - with his height and verticle that would be unstopabble. I just think we'd have better luck with a coulpe guys who can do the intermediate, short, and long game all decently well so if the defence decides to shut down the deep ball then fine, we'lll take the intermediate or short without having to rely entirely on wes

 

[RobertWeathers]

I thought Seymour gone was an OMG moment

No question.

The Moss situation is interesting. Hes slated to earn $6.4m next year. He still produces at a high-level. Based on how the team operates, they keep and those people who produce with hefty cap numbers.

Unlikely that they move him- especially with Welker's status uncertain for next year.

 

[BradyFTW!]

what we need is one or two recievers who arents as specialized in what they do. guys who can do what welker does and what moss can do - maybe not as good as them at both but can do both jobs decently well.

Too bad there are exactly zero receivers in the NFL who fit that description.

You're saying you want someone who has all of the strengths of the best slot receiver and the best deep threat in the league, and you think that that's a reasonable proposition because you grant that the guy can be "maybe not as good as them" in their respective strengths? That's one of the most ridiculous things that I've ever read here, which at this point is really saying something.

 

[emoney_33]

Firstly i never said randy was bad - i even said he'll go down as one of the all time greats - and hes still good now. But in reference to that first picture. The guy is 6'5 and apparently has a verticle out of this world - im sorry but that is a catch if he turned around and jumped up to grab it at its highest point. if stats are important than i can think of no stat more important than the stat of keeping drives alive, espeicially on 3rd down - moss is Tied 19th in that department with about only one a game - 17. or % of catches caught while targeted? he isnt even in the top 20

You really just nitpicked to the point where you say Moss should have STOPPED and turned around, waited and then jumped... And this is your argument for what exactly? Are you arguing against the man's output which is better than Fitz will ever come close to in his career? Do you realize that allowing the ball to fall into your arms in stride has a greater chance of YAC than stopping and jumping just to please some people watching on TV. Moss' judgement on how to catch a pass I think it's just a little bit better than yours.

What is your point about 3rd down? Are you arguing that a short-pass receiver like Welker/Branch is MORE valuable than a big play target like Moss/Fitzgerald? You don't usually go DEEP on 3rd down, and you usually run or give it to your possession/slot/get the damn first down receiver.

But let's compare your favorite receiver's (Fitz) 3rd down numbers to Moss':

19 247 13.0 25 2
19 266 14.0 71 3

Could you link me to your % of catches while targeted data please?

hes great with the deep ball no doubt - could he be better with more aggressivness with boxing out - jumping and outreaching in those routes? IMO yes - with his height and verticle that would be unstopabble. I just think we'd have better luck with a coulpe guys who can do the intermediate, short, and long game all decently well so if the defence decides to shut down the deep ball then fine, we'lll take the intermediate or short without having to rely entirely on wes

He has always used his body to shield defenders. He has never and will never be a physical possession receiver, and he HAS been unstoppable throughout his career. Are you really arguing that the best WR (maybe ever) should have changed his style throughout his career because being the BEST wasn't good enough for you?

Moss has been the same type of receiver since he got in the league, and that has resulted in him being the best. How can you sit there and then argue AGAINST that man's style claiming that he would be even better than the best if he did what you WANT him to do... This boggles my mind.

As soon as the Ravens stopped playing Moss tight (and covered deep only because of score) Moss started catching the shorter passes. Moss is not and never will be a possession receiver, do you really think that replacing Moss WITH a possession receiver makes for a better team?

We need a WR opposite Moss for sure to replace Aiken, but we do not need/want to replace Moss with lesser talent.

 

[Prufrock]

A RB and maybe another decent o-lineman would do absolute wonders for this offense. I know everyone will call me crazy for saying this, but the 2004 offense was better than the 2007 Offense. The 2007 Patriots were good because they had an absurd passing attack that no one knew how to stop until the Super Bowl. The 2004 offense might have been less spectacular, but at least they weren't one dimensional. If the Patriots go into next season relying solely on the pass I think they are due for another early exit from the playoffs. I'm really hoping that Simmons is right about BB wanting to get a decent running back.

 

[teknos1s]

You really just nitpicked to the point where you say Moss should have STOPPED and turned around, waited and then jumped... And this is your argument for what exactly?

Yes, that is my argument - because that would have been an automatic catch if he had done just that - no YAC without the Y part first. Speaking of YAC - Moss isnt the greasted in that area either

Moss' judgement on how to catch a pass I think it's just a little bit better than yours.

I will agree - but i do know one thing - and i have heard one thing from all the coaches ive ever encountered who probly know more about this than even randy, and that is you always want to catch the ball at its highest point - unless im missing something i thought that was the general understanding.

What is your point about 3rd down? Are you arguing that a short-pass receiver like Welker/Branch is MORE valuable than a big play target like Moss/Fitzgerald?

yes, thats what im saying: give me the automatic 10-20 yards per pass, If I could only keep moss or welker - im going with welker. once again shorter/intermediate high percentage catches with YAC.

But let's compare your favorite receiver's (Fitz) 3rd down numbers to Moss':

Larry fitz is my fav reciever? please tell me where i mention that? not even close. I had even mentioned earlier that the only reason i chose that pic is to show how a reciever should grab the ball at its highest point - i could have easily picked a picture of joe schmo doing the same thing

Could you link me to your % of catches while targeted data please?

Leaders - %Passes Caught/Target - NFL - SILive.com

He has always used his body to shield defenders. He has never and will never be a physical possession receiver

And thats what im saying we need, a physical possession reciever who can consistantly make the 20yd catch.

and he HAS been unstoppable throughout his career. Are you really arguing that the best WR (maybe ever) should have changed his style throughout his career because being the BEST wasn't good enough for you?

Everyones game needs to be retooled and evolved to keep up and improve - this goes to all facets in life. just cause your the best doesnt mean you cant improve. Jerry rice is the GOAT - he could run downfeild like moss and turn intermediate and short passes into long gains

Moss has been the same type of receiver since he got in the league, and that has resulted in him being the best. How can you sit there and then argue AGAINST that man's style claiming that he would be even better than the best if he did what you WANT him to do...

see above.

As soon as the Ravens stopped playing Moss tight (and covered deep only because of score) Moss started catching the shorter passes. Moss is not and never will be a possession receiver, do you really think that replacing Moss WITH a possession receiver makes for a better team?

Yes, i do - see alll reason above

We need a WR opposite Moss for sure to replace Aiken, but we do not need/want to replace Moss with lesser talent.

This is certainly where we differ. Ill take two recievers with lesser talent but still effective and good that can make the 20yd catch and still run for YAC. Moss is great but his times gotta be up soon.

 

[teknos1s]

A RB and maybe another decent o-lineman would do absolute wonders for this offense. I know everyone will call me crazy for saying this, but the 2004 offense was better than the 2007 Offense. The 2007 Patriots were good because they had an absurd passing attack that no one knew how to stop until the Super Bowl. The 2004 offense might have been less spectacular, but at least they weren't one dimensional. If the Patriots go into next season relying solely on the pass I think they are due for another early exit from the playoffs. I'm really hoping that Simmons is right about BB wanting to get a decent running back.

i completely agree with the 04/07 argument

 

[Jangles]

I will agree - but i do know one thing - and i have heard one thing from all the coaches ive ever encountered who probly know more about this than even randy.

Randys knowledge > your high school football coaches

 

[teknos1s]

NFL football coaches knowledge > Randys knowledge > your high school football coaches

let me edit this for you