Underlying Assumptions

[BTTA]

There are a handful of assumptions about the Pats personnel situation which show up at times explicitly and implicitly on this board.

The poll above is meant to take the temperature of the board on these assumptions.

And, what would you add to the list?

 

[mgteich]

I consider Jarvis Green among the starters since he gets starter pay.

I am fascinated by those who think that corners are a 2009 weakness. We are FINE with Bodden, Hobbs and Springs (with Wheatley and Wilhite as injury backups and dime back).

We should draft a corner if Belichick isn't comfortable with the futures of Wheatley and Wilhite. However, I wouldn't. I'd rather draft two safeties.

 

[patfanken]

These are all great questions, but they need more than a yes or no answer. I'll give it a try.

There is only one ILB of starting quality

It doesn't matter if there is or their isn't. What we NEED is a young tough big ILB who is a run stuffer. It won't matter if this kid is limited in pass coverage, because he won't be on the field during those downs where pass coverage is a factor. And from what I've read, there are a couple of those who will be available in the 3rd and 4th rounds. The fact is that your ILBs are NOT going to be on the field all three downs. We already have a future all pro ILB who will be on the field most of the time, we DON'T need another "great ILB" who will most likely spend MORE than half the defensive snaps on the bench.

There is only one OLB of starting quality

Who knows, but I doubt it. The real question here is whether we draft an OLB product who has significant OLBing experience (ie Cushing/Matthews) or do we look for the long haul and go and train a "tweener" over a couple of years (ie English/Barwin/Brown). Personally I think the latter. The Pats 3-4 is different than Pittsburgh's, Baltimore's, Dallas', etc. I think the Pats would rather start fresh than have to undo what has been taught in college. Also those "tweeners" are all usually a bit bigger and stronger than College OLBs. If/when the Pats sign Jason Taylor, the prospect they pick will have plenty of time to develop while they excell in STs, be a situational rusher, and depth.

There is an adequate backup QB

Again who cares. I don't think people realize how happy they are with Kevin O'Connor. KOC is Matt Cassel with a better arm, better legs, and 3 years college experience. He will be ready to back up Tom Brady THIS year. Unfortunately for him I think his best years will be with another team, as I don't see Brady retiring before his rookie contract is up. IMHO, our next starting QB will be drafted NEXT year or the year after. So the Pats will have to settle for another high draft pick in return for developing another fine NFL QB.

Upgrading left tackle should be a priority [/QUOTE]
IMHO, You always would love to upgrade EVERY position every year, but its neither possible, nor necessary. I'm perfectly happy to go into next year with a tackle rotation of Light, Kazcur, OCallahan and Britt...if we had to. If there is a chance to upgrade those 4, then OK, but AFTER we pick up our S, CB, DL and OLB prospects

Upgrading the interior OL should be a priority

I think this is a little more pressing than OT, given Steven Neal's age, contract situation, and injury history. However good OL prospects are found all over the draft (ie Koppen) However that being said, I wouldn't object to seening a top OG prospect get drafted in the first 4

Maroney won’t be a big part of the RB mix

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong I think Maroney will open some eyes this year...before he takes his skills elsewhere. If you want to blame him for something, blame his tendency to get injured, because when he's healthy (ie end of 2007), he's been a very productive RB. I think he'll have a very nice year running with this tandem of RBs, and then move on.

One or more DL starters will leave for 2010

Wilfolk WILL be signed. Warren is under contract until 2012 IIRC. Seymour will be gone. I expect Richard to have an "all pro" like year and then take the money and run....probably to Carolina or other points south. From the begining Richard has never liked NE for one reason or another. He's always been a true professional, but I think when his contractual obligations are over, he'll leave. When you add that to the fact that Richard's contact demands would be over what the Pats would be willing to pay; you end up in the obvious place.

Safety is a weakness on the defense

And the only real one I see on the Pats. James Sanders is an adequate starter...when healthy, but with the change in the NFL's passing game, I think we need to upgrade that position. If there was an Ed Reed type prospect out there, I'd move heaven and earth to get him. However there isn't a truly "great S product out there". In fact I don't think a S will get drafted in the first round. So I'd make sure I got one of the top 3 prospects in the 2nd round. Delmas, Chung and Moore are the 3 names I see throw about, so based on that minimum knowledge, I'll be disappointed not to see one of these guys in Foxboro on Sunday. Then I think about the Depth. After Merriweather and Sanders, who's left....Atwain Spann??????

One of more OL starters will leave for 2010

Yes, but only because in 2 years a lot of things will happen. What I'd like to see happen AFTER this year is the following. The Pats draft a top LT prospect in next year's draft. Steven Neal retires or moves on, and Matt Light replaces him. Mankins is resigned, and Koppen keeps on keeping on. At right Tackle O'Callahan keeps inproving and eventually taking over for Kazcur, while Kazcur starts the first 4 games of the 2010 season at LT, before the unnamed prospect takes over for the next 10 years, while Kazcur becomes quality depth at both tackle positions. Hows that?

CB is a weakness on the defense

It certainly isn't NOW. With the additions of Boddin and Springer, plus the return of Wheatly and Wilhite, The Pats have DRAMATICALLY upgraded their CB position from the end of last season. Add to the fact that Ellis Hobbs is a quality starting CB in the NFL. Maybe not an all pro quality CB, but better than average nonetheless. That will give us FIVE CBs who starting out will be better than the 5 who ended the season (Hobbs we have found out was playing with injuries that have cleared up and the other 4 weren't on the 45 man roster at the end of the year)

THAT BEING SAID, it is my greatest hope that we come away from Saturday's draft with Malcolm Jenkins, who is one of the few players in the draft who is acknowledged as the best CB prospect. I don't care about his 40 time, his 3-cone time was the best among the CBs, and its not straight line speed, but ACCELERATION and the ability to change directions that marks a potentially great CB. THAT Jenkins has in spades. He is the one player I'd give up one of the late seconds to move up and grab him.

So why not only pick a CB, but give up a draft pick to get him, when you already have 5 guys you already like plus Mike Richardson? Its a legit question. Again I go back to the fact that you cannot have TOO MANY DBs. Its just that simple. The NFL is a league where it is NOW normal for decent QBs to complete 60% of their passes and the top 10 QBs to complete close to 70%. Think of the evolution. When I played back in the 70's any time a QB completed better than 50% he had a very good day. As the west coast offense began to develop in the 90's that percentage was raised into the 60's for the better QB's. Now you have guys like Matt Cassel who hadn't started a game in 9 years. or Kyle Orton being able to approach 70% completion rates. THE GAME HAS CHANGED - and to compete against those complex passing schemes you need quality DB's and the more the better. Jenkins has the ability to play S, though IMHO the line between S skills and CB skills becomes more blurred with every passing year. Believe me even WITH all the CB depth, having Jenkins will upgrade the ENTIRE secondary, and he'll be ready to jump in as a true #1 CB when Springs moves on.

Believe me we can get a great OLB prospect (most likely one of the top 3) with the #34 pick, and personally I think we are fine for this year at OLB with the guys we have. Remember like the ILB position, we generally replace one of the OLBs on 3rd and longs.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

And, what would you add to the list?

Good thread concept.

There is only one ILB of starting quality -- this is a multi-parter in reality:
- The first is the literal reading of your question.
- Then comes 'what role will Guyton play,' AND does NE need additional depth/competition at ILB?
-- Mayo is a lock for starter, after that there are questions, with a glimmer of hope.
-- Guyton should be, at minumum, the #3 ILB.
-- That leaves SILB open for speculation:
---- Can Guyton win the starting job or is he going to reprise the Roman Phifer role?
---- Does Tedy continue to start?
---- Can Alexander or Ruud or one of the OLB kids step up?
---- Does Adalius move back inside?
-- As far as draft strategy, I think it's a necessity to draft and/or sign (UDFA) one or more youngsters to compete in camp.
---- Where I disagree with some thinking is allocating one of the first three picks to this goal - based purely on the early round quality available, the top tier in this draft is only Curry, the next tier is not a good value for NE's need, the third and later tiers of prospects do a better job of marrying value with quality.

There is only one OLB of starting quality -- No, Adalius AND Woods are adequate starters. TBC has been adequate in the past, but we need to see how he's developed in the past two seasons.
- The three kids behind them (Crable, Redd, Craig) are questionmarks, but ones with promise.
- Draft strategy: It's a deep draft, target one potentially elite prospect early and be prepared to take another competition prospect in the later rounds or sign a UDFA for the Practice Squad pool.

There is an adequate backup QB -- Yes.

Upgrading left tackle should be a priority -- No, but if opportunity drops in your lap...
-- There are mid and late round prospects who may not upgrade the starter, but will compete well for reserve, be prepared for the opportunity.

Upgrading the interior OL should be a priority -- the highest priority here.

Maroney won’t be a big part of the RB mix -- not an issue if he isn't.

One or more DL starters will leave for 2010 -- it's possible.
- The opportunity to draft a DL shouldn't be overlooked, but it shouldn't drive strategy in this draft.
- One or more late round/UDFA kids should be sought for camp competition, Practice Squad consideration.

Safety is a weakness on the defense -- at starter, No; in depth, there is a need to improve competition for reserve slots.

One of more OL starters will leave for 2010 -- it's possible.
- A move to improve interior OL depth will help address this issue.
- Obtaining one of the mid or late round LT prospects will help address this issue.

CB is a weakness on the defense -- not anymore.

 

[Seneschal2]

Can Guyton win the starting job or is he going to reprise the Roman Phifer role?

Phifer is the best coverage LB Belichick's ever coached. How are Guyton's coverage skills? Adequate enough to handle the role? I honestly don't know the answer.

There is only one OLB of starting quality -- No, Adalius AND Woods are adequate starters. TBC has been adequate in the past, but we need to see how he's developed in the past two seasons.

We also need to know BB's evaluation of others -- namely Crable. It is possible that Crable and/or a rookie could surpass the ability of Woods. The stars would have to be aligned for any Woods replacement (this season). TC and pre-season may be very competitive for this position.

The three kids behind them (Crable, Redd, Craig) are questionmarks, but ones with promise.

See above.

Upgrading the interior OL should be a priority -- the highest priority here.

It's certainly a top priority -- but only BB can accurately say it's the highest -- regardless of fans analysis. Odds are, the position will be addressed earlier rather than later.

Maroney won’t be a big part of the RB mix -- not an issue if he isn't.

Taylor was a huge signing

Safety is a weakness on the defense -- at starter, No; in depth, there is a need to improve competition for reserve slots.

Quality depth of course. But if BB is looking to add a playmaker to the secondary, than one with starter potential is necessary. Of course the playmaker could come from the CB position as well. I'm guessing adding more ball skills to the secondary is a high priority for BB.

CB is a weakness on the defense -- not anymore.

Agreed -- not this season. But the uncertainty of Hobbs and Bodden for 2010 may dictate this as another priority need -- but not necessarily a round one CB, as BB has successfully found non-first round starters in the past.

 

[Synovia]

It doesn't matter if there is or their isn't. What we NEED is a young tough big ILB who is a run stuffer. It won't matter if this kid is limited in pass coverage, because he won't be on the field during those downs where pass coverage is a factor

Its not 1965 anymore. In the 2009 NFL, pass coverage is a factor on every down.

 

[Seneschal2]

Its not 1965 anymore.

:ugh: It's not? Time to remove the cleats then.

In the 2009 NFL, pass coverage is a factor on every down.

:ditto:

 

[p8ryts]

Interesting poll. Glad to see that fans think CB is not a weakness and glad to see the Matt Light hysteria doesn't register here.

I really only have concerns about a pass rusher, a hard hitting safety and an inside linebacker, I think everyone else is fine. Oh except we need a backup for injury prone Neal who is fine when healthy.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Mauluga is the only ILB i would start.