Diner Draft Questions

[mayoclinic]

New Diner issue out from Michael Lombardi:

New England Patriots Forums - PatsFans.com Patriots Fan Messageboard

Not a lot specific to the Pats interests, though it sounds like Andre Smith is rising back up and Lombardi thinks he's a top 10 lock.

Matt Stafford is crazy if he doesn't sign with the Lions, regardless of what discount they want him to take. He'll lose a ton of money if he doesn't end up the #1 pick.

 

[mayoclinic]

Sorry, brain far. Wrong URL posted. Here's the correct link:

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/2009/04/diner-morning-news-draft-questions/ [/URL[

 

[apple strudel]

It still sounds like he's predicting a run on tackles - at least 4 in the first round.

And interesting about Beanie Wells and other players' take on him.

 

[mgteich]

I would expect four tackles in the half of the first round, with another four in the next 30 picks. The second tier uncludes Beatty, Britton, Meredith and Loadholt. To put it another way, I think that we probably will not have an opportunity at any of the top 8 OT's when we draft at 47, certainly not at 58.

It still sounds like he's predicting a run on tackles - at least 4 in the first round.

And interesting about Beanie Wells and other players' take on him.

 

[mayoclinic]

Interesting stuff. Lombardi and many others are predicting 4 OT's in the top 10 picks.

Here's some more interesting stuff from Nolan Nawrocki at PFW:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

Nawrocki is hearing a lot of Michael Crabtree to GB at #9 rumors, which could happen if he drops that far. Also an interesting rumor that KC is shopping Glenn Dorsey. The most interesting part of is column, though, is what he says about the pass rushers in this draft comparing 2009 with 2005:

There are a lot of similarities in this draft to what may go down in history as one of the worst top 10s of all time in that 2005 draft. To add a little perspective, consider that at this same time four years ago, the Buccaneers were having internal conversation about whether to draft DeMarcus Ware or Cadillac Williams but sided with offense, in part because Jon Gruden was infatuated with the competitive back and in part because the Buccaneers thought Ware was too one-dimensional, much as Aaron Maybin has been criticized this year. In retrospect, I think it’s safe to say the Buccaneers would prefer to have the NFL's top pass rusher, and arguably the best defensive player in football, over a china-doll back. Scouts were also calling Shawne Merriman too stiff, the same way they have been banging Brian Orakpo. There’s a good chance that Maybin and Orakpo will slip outside the top 10 as Ware and Merriman did, but in three years, I think the pass rushers in this class will stand out in much the same way.

Interesting stuff. Maybin as DeMarcus Ware and Orapko as Shawne Merriman. Physically they are similar in style. It will be interesting to see how they turn out.

 

[dryheat44]

.

Matt Stafford is crazy if he doesn't sign with the Lions, regardless of what discount they want him to take. He'll lose a ton of money if he doesn't end up the #1 pick.

I agree, especially since Aaron Curry is willing to sign for less than what Jake Long got last year. Aaron Curry willing to accept below-market deal to be Lions' No. 1 pick - The Huddle - USATODAY.com

 

[mgteich]

I think that Orapko and Maybin may move down a bit from their value since it has been judged that they fit best in the 4-3. Since there are so many 3-4 teams, and newly 3-4 teams, I think that this may hurt them a bit.

Exactly how does one have a rumor of Crabtree at #9 to Green Bay? Maybe Green Bay would pick him at #9 if that's what is meant. That is much different that projecting that Crabtree will be available or that Green Bay will trade up for him, neither of which is suggested by Nawrocki.

The Dorsey tidbit is indeed interesting.

Interesting stuff. Lombardi and many others are predicting 4 OT's in the top 10 picks.

Here's some more interesting stuff from Nolan Nawrocki at PFW:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

Nawrocki is hearing a lot of Michael Crabtree to GB at #9 rumors, which could happen if he drops that far. Also an interesting rumor that KC is shopping Glenn Dorsey. The most interesting part of is column, though, is what he says about the pass rushers in this draft comparing 2009 with 2005:

There are a lot of similarities in this draft to what may go down in history as one of the worst top 10s of all time in that 2005 draft. To add a little perspective, consider that at this same time four years ago, the Buccaneers were having internal conversation about whether to draft DeMarcus Ware or Cadillac Williams but sided with offense, in part because Jon Gruden was infatuated with the competitive back and in part because the Buccaneers thought Ware was too one-dimensional, much as Aaron Maybin has been criticized this year. In retrospect, I think it’s safe to say the Buccaneers would prefer to have the NFL's top pass rusher, and arguably the best defensive player in football, over a china-doll back. Scouts were also calling Shawne Merriman too stiff, the same way they have been banging Brian Orakpo. There’s a good chance that Maybin and Orakpo will slip outside the top 10 as Ware and Merriman did, but in three years, I think the pass rushers in this class will stand out in much the same way.

Interesting stuff. Maybin as DeMarcus Ware and Orapko as Shawne Merriman. Physically they are similar in style. It will be interesting to see how they turn out.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Interesting stuff. Lombardi and many others are predicting 4 OT's in the top 10 picks.

Which seems pretty standard for modern day drafts .. Tackles are gold dust and teams know it

 

[mayoclinic]

Here's some more from NFL, this time from Wes Bunting:

The National Football Post | NFP Draft Snippets

I have to confess, I'm totally confused as to how the top 10 will pan out. Stafford to Detroit seems highly probable, along with an OT (probably Jason Smith) to St. Louis. But after that it's up in the air, depending on whether Washington is serious about trading up for Mark Sanchez. I think KC takes Eugene Monroe #3 if they stay at 3, but they would prefer to trade down and get Tyson Jackson. Seattle will take one of Sanchez or Monroe. I thought Cleveland was going to go for Crabtree, but now rumors are that they were turned off by Crabtree's visit and will pass.

It's totally musical chairs as far as how the top players are going to go. Someone is going to slip to around 8-10 or even out of the top 10, and I'm not sure who. It could be Crabtree, Curry, Raji, or Andre Smith, any of whom would potentially be of interest to the Pats.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Here's some more from NFL, this time from Wes Bunting:

The National Football Post | NFP Draft Snippets

I have to confess, I'm totally confused as to how the top 10 will pan out. Stafford to Detroit seems highly probable, along with an OT (probably Jason Smith) to St. Louis. But after that it's up in the air, depending on whether Washington is serious about trading up for Mark Sanchez. I think KC takes Eugene Monroe #3 if they stay at 3, but they would prefer to trade down and get Tyson Jackson. Seattle will take one of Sanchez or Monroe. I thought Cleveland was going to go for Crabtree, but now rumors are that they were turned off by Crabtree's visit and will pass.

It's totally musical chairs as far as how the top players are going to go. Someone is going to slip to around 8-10 or even out of the top 10, and I'm not sure who. It could be Crabtree, Curry, Raji, or Andre Smith, any of whom would potentially be of interest to the Pats.

I do not know how KC can afford to pass on Jackson. Granted #3 is a huge overdraft, especially considering Seymour only went at #6. But wait a minute didn't Seymour fall to #6 because the Browns scooped up Warren earlier in that draft? Maybe #3 is not such an overdraft afterall.

 

[bakes781]

Now that Raji is confirmed clean wouldn't KC have to be looking at him? If the rumors are true they are shopping last year's pick Dorsey then I'd say it's almost a certain they'd be looking at Raji.

 

[mayoclinic]

Now that Raji is confirmed clean wouldn't KC have to be looking at him? If the rumors are true they are shopping last year's pick Dorsey then I'd say it's almost a certain they'd be looking at Raji.

It's certainly an option. If they pick up picks they could still go after Ron Brace in the 2nd round, or use #65 on someone like Dorell Scott from Clemson.

I think that KC would love to trade Dorsey and pick up someone like Tyson Jackson who is more of a true 3-4 DE. Then they could use #3 on an OT or trade down with it. But I'm not sure anyone is going to give up enough for Dorsey, who didn't have a terrific 1st year. It would make sense for a team like Tampa Bay or Indy, but I don't think they have enough to interest KC. Maybe Cincinnati at #6 or Oakland at 7, but that seems like a lot to give up. That might be KC's ideal - trade Dorsey for 6-7 to take Jackson, and trade out of #3 (ideally to Washington for #13 and a 2010 1st). Just guessing. We know Pioli will be active, whatever else.

 

[bakes781]

My dream scenario to start off the draft is either Mark Sanchez or BJ Raji going #1 overall and all of the invitees in NY sweating it out another 10 minutes.

 

[apple strudel]

If the rumors are true they are shopping last year's pick Dorsey then I'd say it's almost a certain they'd be looking at Raji.

I haven't heard these rumors. Is it because he's more of a 1-gapper and doesn't project to NT?

 

[mayoclinic]

I haven't heard these rumors. Is it because he's more of a 1-gapper and doesn't project to NT?

The Dorsey rumor is discussed in this mornings Q&A with Nolan Nawrocki from PFW:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

That was the first I had heard of such a rumor. I have no idea if there is any substance to it. Presumably, as you say, Dorsey doesn't fit well in a 3-4 system that KC is expected to run, either at DT or as a 3-4 DE. But KC has invested a lot of money in him already, and I think they would be smart to build their defense around the personnel they already have in place. I'm sure Pioli and Haley have a plan in mind.

 

[apple strudel]

The Dorsey rumor is discussed in this mornings Q&A with Nolan Nawrocki from PFW:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

That was the first I had heard of such a rumor. I have no idea if there is any substance to it. Presumably, as you say, Dorsey doesn't fit well in a 3-4 system that KC is expected to run, either at DT or as a 3-4 DE. But KC has invested a lot of money in him already, and I think they would be smart to build their defense around the personnel they already have in place. I'm sure Pioli and Haley have a plan in mind.

That's a tough problem to have. Wikipedia lists him at 6'1" 297 pounds so yeah, he doesn't fit physically. I wonder what they could get for him? A lot of 4-3 teams would like to have him, or maybe even the 1 gap 3-4 teams.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Wouldn't it make sense for the Chiefs to keep Dorsey, draft Raji, and run a 46 defense, like the Bears invented? Think of the havoc that Dorsey and Raji would cause! I'm not terrible up to date on the nuances of the 46, but I do think it's got real potential in KC. I tend to like it better than a base 43, and I believe it is somewhat similar to the hybrid brand of 34 that the Ravens run. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, please!

I know much less about football than I pretend.

 

[apple strudel]

Wouldn't it make sense for the Chiefs to keep Dorsey, draft Raji, and run a 46 defense, like the Bears invented? Think of the havoc that Dorsey and Raji would cause! I'm not terrible up to date on the nuances of the 46, but I do think it's got real potential in KC. I tend to like it better than a base 43, and I believe it is somewhat similar to the hybrid brand of 34 that the Ravens run. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, please!

I know much less about football than I pretend.

I thought about the Chiefs keeping a 4-3 at least for the short term and they might do something like you suggest, but I know that philosophically all of the Bellichick tree prefers a 3-4 for its flexibility and ability to disguise attacks. I'd think eventually Pioli will go down that path.

 

[mgteich]

As several posters, the best case for Pioli is to
1) Trade Dorsey.
2) Move down a few spots from 3 and draft Raji or Jackson.
3) Use the compensation from Dorsey and whatever else to draft the other.

This is not going to work because no one is offering a top 12 pick for Dorsey (which he is worth). I believe that both Jackson and Raji will be picked in the top 12.

Pioli best shot seems to be to move down a bit, and draft Jackson (as so many analysts have suggested). Best case is to pick up a second and draft Brace.

I thought about the Chiefs keeping a 4-3 at least for the short term and they might do something like you suggest, but I know that philosophically all of the Bellichick tree prefers a 3-4 for its flexibility and ability to disguise attacks. I'd think eventually Pioli will go down that path.

 

[mayoclinic]

As several posters, the best case for Pioli is to
1) Trade Dorsey.
2) Move down a few spots from 3 and draft Raji or Jackson.
3) Use the compensation from Dorsey and whatever else to draft the other.

This is not going to work because no one is offering a top 12 pick for Dorsey (which he is worth). I believe that both Jackson and Raji will be picked in the top 12.

Pioli best shot seems to be to move down a bit, and draft Jackson (as so many analysts have suggested). Best case is to pick up a second and draft Brace.

I agree with your analysis, but it's a little strange that no one would be interested in trading for Dorsey. I've been hearing for months how week this DT class is, and how Raji would have been a mid-round pick last year with Ellis and Dorsey in the mix. I've also been hearing over and over how the top of this draft is weak. So why wouldn't a team like Cincinnati offer the #6 pick for Dorsey? They would have taken Ellis at #9 last year if NO hadn't traded up ahead of the Pats. Or the Raiders - you would think Dorsey would fit their defense better than Raji. Has Dorsey's stock fallen that much? Obviously the number of teams moving to a 3-4 defense cuts down the available trading partners, but I would still expect some interest if this rumor has any truth to it.