At Least Eight Openings For Rookies

[mgteich]

And yes I now that free agency isn't over. I still think a FB, a SS and/or a QB are all possible.

That being said, Belichick has brought the team to where he always hopes to be before the draft. He has a completed team that, with reasonable health, could do very well, with no rookie contributions.
===========================================================
I still see eight easy possbilities for upgrade, all over bottom of the roster players.

QB Gutierrez
RB/FB Green-Ellis
OT O'Callaghan
OG Yates
OLB Redd
ILB Rudd/Alexander
SS the current roster spot is held by CB Richardson
FS/swing DB Spann

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MG’s ROSTER AS OF MARCH 14

OFFENSE (24)
QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, (Gutierrez)
RB/FB (5) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney, (BJGE)
WR (4) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis
TE (3) Watson, Baker, Thomas
OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, (O’Callaghan)
OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, (Yates)

DEFENSE (24)
DL (6) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Smith
OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Banta-Cain, Woods, (Redd)
ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, (Ruud/Alexander)
CB (5) Hobbs, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite
S (3) Meriweather, Sanders, (Spann)
Utility DB (1) (Richardson)

SPECIALISTS (5)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Hodel
ST (2) Aiken, Slater

PRACTICE SQUAD
Wendell, Listorti, DeVree, Craig, Malone

 

[JSn]

Thanks for doing that. A lot of these FA signings are keepers, and it had me wondering how we sign any draftees. Do you think Tully is a guy who could lose his spot to a draftee as well?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thanks for doing that. A lot of these FA signings are keepers, and it had me wondering how we sign any draftees. Do you think Tully is a guy who could lose his spot to a draftee as well?

I do, but he probably doesn't as an experienced OLB.

 

[mgteich]

I don't. He is a top special teamer and might be kept for only that reason. The fact that he is capable of starting at OLB in our system makes him a keeper. My bottom line is that he is worht keep for his special teams play and as an emergency OLB. Personally, I think he is better than that and is likely to get significant reps.

Thanks for doing that. A lot of these FA signings are keepers, and it had me wondering how we sign any draftees. Do you think Tully is a guy who could lose his spot to a draftee as well?

 

[JSn]

I don't. He is a top special teamer and might be kept for only that reason. The fact that he is capable of starting at OLB in our system makes him a keeper. My bottom line is that he is worht keep for his special teams play and as an emergency OLB. Personally, I think he is better than that and is likely to get significant reps.

Hm. Why did he fail so miserably when he left? Just the system change, or was Bill hiding his weaknesses here? Something else?

 

[mgteich]

I think he was fine here in our system with our coaches. He was a reasonable backup. He started in his last year and did an OK job, but not good enough to warrant a permanent starting job. And yes, Bill is quite capable of using the strengths of players and hiding their weaknesses, instead of expecting every player to do everything.

Hm. Why did he fail so miserably when he left? Just the system change, or was Bill hiding his weaknesses here? Something else?

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I think he was fine here in our system with our coaches. He was a reasonable backup. He started in his last year and did an OK job, but not good enough to warrant a permanent starting job. And yes, Bill is quite capable of using the strengths of players and hiding their weaknesses, instead of expecting every player to do everything.

Let's also remember Nolan runs more of a Pittsburgh 3-4, which I'd have thought catered to TBC's strength, but TBC also gained a lot of weight when he left NE. He was listed as 250 while in NE and was listed as 265 for SF, though there were reports he showed for his first mini-camp around 290.

 

[spacecrime]

All possibilties, but not so easy. Unless they get a QB or RB in the first few rounds, for instance, it would take an exceptional rookie to unseat BJGE or Gute. Not that they can't be upgraded, but they are decent backups and we are unlikely to get 8 rookies who unseat 8 of the backups listed.

That's why I would like to trade a 2 this year for a 1 next year, or package a couple of 2's this year for a 1 this year. I just don't see 8 rookies making this team. I have a hard time seeing six rookies making this team, and those are all first-three-round picks!

This is going to be a fun draft to watch!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[mgteich]

I don't expect Gut or Green-Ellis to be replaced in the draft. However, I think free agent replacements are still possible. I think that we could use a veteran quarterback and a fullback on the roster more than Gut and Green-Ellis.

I expect us to use the 89 to trade up (or into 2010 if you must) but I want our other top picks. I'll use my primary scenario where we don't get a top OT early.

first four picks: OLB, ILB, S, OG
next two: OT, S

After than we are talking about 5th comps and later who are not likely to make the team. I am not concerned with wasting these picks. We can trade them forward if anyone is interested. Also, we can draft more at the above positions. After all, we have gotten LB's and DE's late before (for example Banta-Cain and LeKevin).

The alternate scenario switches OG and OT. Safeties can be similarly treated. We could get a SS early and a FS later or vice versa.

All possibilties, but not so easy. Unless they get a QB or RB in the first few rounds, for instance, it would take an exceptional rookie to unseat BJGE or Gute. Not that they can't be upgraded, but they are decent backups and we are unlikely to get 8 rookies who unseat 8 of the backups listed.

That's why I would like to trade a 2 this year for a 1 next year, or package a couple of 2's this year for a 1 this year. I just don't see 8 rookies making this team. I have a hard time seeing six rookies making this team, and those are all first-three-round picks!

This is going to be a fun draft to watch!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

RB/FB Green-Ellis
OL O'Callaghan, Yates, Hochstein
OLB Redd, TBC
ILB Rudd/Alexander
DB Richardson, Spann

Some of the kids in this draft will be fighting for Practice Squad slots: I expect BB to try and keep one OLB and one ILB, CB, S, OL, DL at minimum.

 

[DocE]

And yes I now that free agency isn't over. I still think a FB, a SS and/or a QB are all possible.

That being said, Belichick has brought the team to where he always hopes to be before the draft. He has a completed team that, with reasonable health, could do very well, with no rookie contributions.
===========================================================
I still see eight easy possbilities for upgrade, all over bottom of the roster players.

QB Gutierrez
RB/FB Green-Ellis
OT O'Callaghan
OG Yates
OLB Redd
ILB Rudd/Alexander
SS the current roster spot is held by CB Richardson
FS/swing DB Spann

I think you have nailed the most tenuous 8 spots on the current roster
================================
MG’s ROSTER AS OF MARCH 14

OFFENSE (24)
QB (3) Brady, O'Connell, (Gutierrez)

I could see a late round QB given the number of picks the Patriots have. That said, would BB want Brady backed up by a 2nd year QB and have a rookie as 3rd string? seems doubtful.

RB/FB (5) Taylor, Faulk, Morris, Maroney, (BJGE)
I think we will see a RB drafted either a RB/FB combo (they have looked at Jennings from Liberty) or a 3rd down type of back. Taylor, Faulk, and Morris are all near the end of the line.

WR (4) Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis

I still think there is room for a draft pick here, as early as the 2nd round. I think the Galloway/Lewis acquisitions make a high pick unlikely and that the Patriots will wait until the 4th or later to take a WR, if they do so at all.

TE (3) Watson, Baker, Thomas

I don't think Thomas is a lock for the roster, so I think a TE is possible as early as round 2-3. Baker's contract can easily be viewed as a 2 year deal and Watson is up after this year.

OT (4) Light, Kaczur, LeVoir, (O’Callaghan)

I hope our offseason additions allow the Patriots to take a Tackle prospect on day one. Much tougher (and more expensive) to find a Tackle than a guard. I like Levoir, but It wouldn't shock me if he didn't make the team.

OG/C (5) Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Hochstein, (Yates)

I think we will see a guard drafted at some point and possibly a 2nd one in the 7th as a practice squad possibility.

DEFENSE (24)
DL (6) Wilfork, Seymour, Warren, Green, Wright, Smith

Can never have enough Dlineman, but with Wright locked up it does significantly lessen the immediate need. I only see Gilbert and Jackson (and Hood if he can play the 5 technique) as Day 1 options and they likely will be reached for due to scarcity.

OLB (5) Thomas, Crable, Banta-Cain, Woods, (Redd)

A rare consensus on the Draft Talk forum is that the Patriots will draft an OLB.

ILB (4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, (Ruud/Alexander)

I'd like an ILB, but there doesn't seem to be a great fit in this draft. That 4th ILB spot is one of the 2-3 weakest positions on the 53.

CB (5) Hobbs, Bodden, Springs, Wheatley, Wilhite

Can't pass up value at any position, but (on paper) this looks like a good group.

S (3) Meriweather, Sanders, (Spann)
Utility DB (1) (Richardson)

I think we will see a safety drafted within the first 3 rounds, but I have no idea whether it will be a coverage guy or a bigger in the box type. It seems like the Patriots lack the in the box safety, but BB seemed to acknowledge a change in the way Safety is played in his comments at the combine. It could be another cover type S to sub for Sanders in nickel/dime packages.
SPECIALISTS (5)
K (1) Gostkowski
P (1) Hanson
LS (1) Hodel
ST (2) Aiken, Slater

I think Hodel, Hanson, and Slater could all see competition, though most likely from UDFA's and I would think Ventrone would be back for training camp too.
PRACTICE SQUAD
Wendell, Listorti, DeVree, Craig, Malone

I think BB will bring in long snappers to the practice squad in '09 in the same way he did with punters in '08.

 

[Patriot Missile]

RB/FB Green-Ellis
OL O'Callaghan, Yates, Hochstein
OLB Redd, TBC
ILB Rudd/Alexander
DB Richardson, Spann

Some of the kids in this draft will be fighting for Practice Squad slots: I expect BB to try and keep one OLB and one ILB, CB, S, OL, DL at minimum.

Sorry but Green-Ellis is not going to be a every play FB for this team. He weighs 215. That is way on the light side. Bank on signing or drafting someone for this spot. Look at Brannan Southerland out of Georgia or Tony Fiammetta from Syracuse. I wouldn't rule out the Sabean connection and see the Pat's draft Travis McCall from Alabama either. All these guys could be had for a 6th or later on day 2.

 

[Jimke]

This is a year where the Patriots should hold on to most of

their draft choices. As a best case scenerio (no CBA) the

Patriots could lose five starters (Bruschi, Neal, Seymour, Watson,

and Wilfork after 2009. If a new CBA occurs, add Gostowski, Hobbs,

Kaczur, and Mankins to the list of starters who will be lost.

The time to find replacement for some of these players is 2009

so they can gain a year of experience. Like all of you, I hope

they can extend a couple of these players before the 2009

season is concluded.

 

[patchick]

I think Hodel, Hanson, and Slater could all see competition, though most likely from UDFA's and I would think Ventrone would be back for training camp too.

I agree on all of these players. By most accounts, Ventrone was the absolute ace of the Pats ST coverage teams last season. Wouldn't even be a shock if he became the captain this year.

Also, can we assume that a day-1 rookie could find room at almost any position? Guys like Eric Alexander and Le Kevin Smith aren't exactly on the bubble, but both will be FAs in 2010 and could make way for a top draft pick.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Sorry but Green-Ellis is not going to be a every play FB for this team. He weighs 215. That is way on the light side. Bank on signing or drafting someone for this spot. Look at Brannan Southerland out of Georgia or Tony Fiammetta from Syracuse. I wouldn't rule out the Sabean connection and see the Pat's draft Travis McCall from Alabama either. All these guys could be had for a 6th or later on day 2.

I just took mg's list and updated it, I hadn't noticed his FB listing as something that aplied to B-Jeepers but as a general 'backfield' clumping.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

first four picks: OLB, ILB, S, OG
next two: OT, S

This makes a lot of sense, on the two safeties are you talking one free and one strong?

I saw a mock that had us taking Britten, Laurenitis, Barwin, Delmas, Chung and Urbik (in the 4th, no comp picks on the mock). Different order but it matches yours pretty well.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, I believe that we need a backup at both free and strong safety. BTW, I am not a fan of not having a backup free safety, presuming that a corner can always be moved (Springs this year). While this is true and valuable in an emergency, My preference is to have four true safeties o the initial 53 man roster, at least one of which is a top special teamer.

first four picks: OLB, ILB, S, OG
next two: OT, S

This makes a lot of sense, on the two safeties are you talking one free and one strong?

I saw a mock that had us taking Britten, Laurenitis, Barwin, Delmas, Chung and Urbik (in the 4th, no comp picks on the mock). Different order but it matches yours pretty well.

 

[mgteich]

BEST CASE - NO NEW CBA
Yes, we could lose Bruschi, Neal, Seymour, Watson and Wilfork.
I am not worried about losing Bruschi and Watson.
I think that OG is a high priority and we will draft one on Day One. Neal may be gone.
I expect to extend or franchise Wilfork (even twice)
I expect Seymour to be franchised.

ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS - A NEW CBA
I expect Wilfork to be extended.
I expect Seymour to be gone.
I expect Mankins to be gone.
I expect Gostkowski to be franchised for two years if necessary.
I expect Hobbs to be gone.
I expect Kaczur to be extended and to compete with LeVoir and a 2009 draft pick.
======================================

BOTTOM LINE - INPUT TO THE 2009 DRAFT PROCESS
A) Draft a guard or two, at least one on Day One.
B) Draft a tackle in the first four rounds to challenge Kaczur and LeVoir in 2010. Obviously a pick at 23 or 34 could challenge them in 2009.

This is a year where the Patriots should hold on to most of

their draft choices. As a best case scenerio (no CBA) the

Patriots could lose five starters (Bruschi, Neal, Seymour, Watson,

and Wilfork after 2009. If a new CBA occurs, add Gostowski, Hobbs,

Kaczur, and Mankins to the list of starters who will be lost.

The time to find replacement for some of these players is 2009

so they can gain a year of experience. Like all of you, I hope

they can extend a couple of these players before the 2009

season is concluded.

 

[midwestpatsfan]

I think we all have to remember that the Galloway and Bodden signings are 1 year deals, so those positions still need to be addressed. I also think, without seeing the specifics of the deal, that the Springs signing could potentially be a one year deal as well.(not sure how it is structured with bonus money) The draft has to be used not only to upgrade this years team but also have a look towards the future.

I still think
CB, WR, DL, ILB, OLB, S, OL all have spots that are open. Now, I think that it is very likely that the patriots wheel and deal picks on draft day a lot, both up and down. I think BB has put himself in a position to target specific players and move around the draft to get 5 or 6 guys he really wants.

 

[mgteich]

We will definitely have to see how the special teams positions play out. As you see, I have have only two special team specialists on my 53: Slater and Aiken. Many rosters posted have zero such players.

I don't Ventrone on my roster. I don't think we've even verified that he was tendered. If Ventrone is indeed such a special team ace, he could beat out Aiken or Slater. I don't see him winning a position roster spot.

I could allocate a couple of more positions to special team specialists. However, if I did, I would put Woods and Banta-Cain there. Their ability to play or backup at OLB is a major plus for them.

I agree on all of these players. By most accounts, Ventrone was the absolute ace of the Pats ST coverage teams last season. Wouldn't even be a shock if he became the captain this year.

Also, can we assume that a day-1 rookie could find room at almost any position? Guys like Eric Alexander and Le Kevin Smith aren't exactly on the bubble, but both will be FAs in 2010 and could make way for a top draft pick.