Would you package picks 23 and 47 to move up for Orakpo?

[gzathepat]

I won't trade up for him but I won't mind grabbing him in the first if for some odd reason he slides.

 

[DW Toys]

There's just so much depth at that position that it doesn't excite me - which is the same reason that - wait for it - Barwin at #23 is just so-so to me.

For them to take an OLB converting from DE before #34 they had better think he's the next Ware or Merriman because there will be good choices at #34 and later.

Cousins, I do not see BB packaging to move up in round one. Trade out ? Maybe. From seeing the resources and time they are spending on certain players and the fact that BB was visiting Florida and UConn and not for a fourth or fifth rounder or a smoke job, I think you can get some pretty educated idea of at least some targeted picks in the draft falls the way they want.
Reiss was pretty right on in his projections. It helps when you are around those contacts daily. He says LB, S, G, DL.

Suppositions:

#23=Ayers DE or Hood DT (preparing in case Seymour and Green bolt. I can see them trading Green to Denver(?) for a pick). I would not be surprised to see BB take Harvin WR as the third choice. You can do a lot of stuff with him. BB's relationship to Meyer feeds him the true story on this kid.

The wild card is Andre Smith if he slides this far. Saban will stand behind the kid to BB.

For all the Barwin fans. If BB thinks he is the guy, he will not wait until #34. He'll strike now at #23 (unless he can trade down five picks or so), but I think with seven OLB's right now on the roster, finding a partner opposite Thomas might be right here.

#34=Butler CB (shocker?.....no. Think about it. Best skill set of any CB in the Draft. A visit to UConn by the "Godfather". Bodden has a one year contract and Hobbs is done in 2010. Springs is an older CB but maybe a Saftey option. Last years scouting job on the W&W twins wasn't exactly stellar. They are backups.

If they draft Butler, they could trade Hobbs this year for a pick before they get nada in 2010).....

or Donald Brown RB (see above).

The top three backs are all over 30. Faulk is in his final year. Maroney has been no where near a first round value and do not even attempt to spin that one. CAP potential money loss non-withstanding, Maroney could be had for a decent pick. All this make believe stuff about saying it is cheaper to keep him is ridiculous. All of the NO!NO!NO! crew here would take Brown over Maroney too. If you have a chance to make chicken salad from chicken feces you do it. $700k when Jerry Jones lost $8m on T.O.? I agree if has to be a decent pick like a late two or three.

BB was looking at one or two of the above or both. Cody Brown is a fourth rounder tops. He is not a Storrs field trip maker.

#47=Merridith G. Thought to be a OT by the other 31, but has versatility to play both. Was a better OG in his senior year. Versatility and roster spots for the BB game are key. Dante was sent to work him out personally. I think you can bank on Merridith if he is still there.

#58=Inglesius WR or Massaquois WR. Both about the same 6' 2" size and speed. A depth measure. A fight for the #4 WR for now with Lewis. Both starting wide outs over 30. Rather see Casey or Kruger as an ILB but this is not the BB minsdset I do not believe. These two are... "Eh!" picks to me.

The only thing that could change this is if Laurenaitus slips this far. It appears that BB is not really seeking an ILB that I can see unless there is a fake out with Maualuga in the first.

#89=Moore SS or Vaughn SS. Both bigger Safeties who have enough speed or even more than both Merriweather and Sanders but can drop into the box. Moore has good hands and was a player maker in 07 when healthy. One should be available.

#97 comp=Pat White QB. If he still sits there. Again, a roster spot move. Third QB but a WR or return guy. If they script 10 or 15 plays for him per game, at the worse case scenario it forces opposing DCs to game plan him and waste time. A smart typical BB move.

#120=Jason X. Williams OLB/SS. 4.46 speed. Maybe he is the pass rush guy that we all see in Barwin, English etc. Much faster than Woods, Crable, Redd, TBC, Rudd et al.

#170 comp=Johnny Knox WR. Returner and Welker slot back up. A blazer but bigger than Wes.

#199=Devon Moore RB. Groom him for the Faulk job and a more precise pick if Donald Brown is not chosen.

#207 comp=Quinn Johnson FB. He would go with Fiametta but he will be gone. He makes the squad but does not get active but for a few games BB has special plans for.

#234=I have no idea. Maybe Tyler Lorenzen from UConn as a camp arm/Safety try out? I would love to see Lonnie Harvey, NT. And they have had a sniff at him. The 346 LB guy moves like a 270-280lb DE. Why not? A true NT back up that can be developed.

These are not my picks or binkies for sure. I would not be happy with these guys. Nothing sexy here but it is BB. A lot depends on availability and surprises if someone drops into their lap or trades. These suppositions are based on visits, discussions, contracts, work outs, future roster holes needed to be firmed up and typical Patriots traits like the ability to play more than one position or character.

DW Toys

 

[captain stone]

Bingo. I wouldn't take him at 23, not that he'll last that long, much less trade up for him. 4-3 end all the way as far as I'm concerned.

Splunge for me, too.

My plea to Bill: Please, please, pretty please do NOT package picks just to move up a few spots. There's good depth at the positions for which we have the most need. Please take advantage of this depth by drafting as many players as possible; there's room on the roster for all of them, plus some UDFAs, too.

 

[mgteich]

Is our washout rate really 50% with top picks? Please list our washouts that were not injured. How many top patriots picks have not become starters?

Nope with a 50% wash out rate in the top picks you get better odds of finding a player with 2 picks than 1.

 

[mgteich]

Are we really asking whether we would trade up to get a starting OLB even if that would mean that we wouldn't draft our 2-year binky project?

If Belichick thinks that there is a great difference between Orakpo (or Brown) and the rest then a 47 is not too much to trade. One great advantage of having lots of picks is that there will be plenty of picks to meet our needs, even if trade a couple to move up.

 

[mayoclinic]

Are we really asking whether we would trade up to get a starting OLB even if that would mean that we wouldn't draft our 2-year binky project?

If Belichick thinks that there is a great difference between Orakpo (or Brown) and the rest then a 47 is not too much to trade. One great advantage of having lots of picks is that there will be plenty of picks to meet our needs, even if trade a couple to move up.

No, what we're really asking is the following: Having dodged a bullet on an overmuscled bulky 4-3 DE with gaudy stats last year who showed none of the agility and skills necessary to convert to 3-4 OLB and who was the outstanding bomb of his rookie year, do we want to trade up in the first round this year to try and make up for it with another such guy?

There was nothing wrong with Gholston as a talent last year. He had some motor issues and wasn't the sharpest tack in the toolbox, but he had top 10 talent. So does Orapko. But neither one fits well as a 3-4 OLB.

If Andre Smith falls to 23, should the Pats draft him and convert him to 3-4 OLB? I think he would be awesome at the point of attack. Should we trade up for him if he falls to the mid teens?

 

[TriplecHamp]

No, what we're really asking is the following: Having dodged a bullet on an overmuscled bulky 4-3 DE with gaudy stats last year who showed none of the agility and skills necessary to convert to 3-4 OLB and who was the outstanding bomb of his rookie year, do we want to trade up in the first round this year to try and make up for it with another such guy?

There was nothing wrong with Gholston as a talent last year. He had some motor issues and wasn't the sharpest tack in the toolbox, but he had top 10 talent. So does Orapko. But neither one fits well as a 3-4 OLB.

If Andre Smith falls to 23, should the Pats draft him and convert him to 3-4 OLB? I think he would be awesome at the point of attack. Should we trade up for him if he falls to the mid teens?

Muscles have nothing to do with how well a player will play at OLB look at DeMarcus Ware. I actually think Rex Ryan will turn Gholston into a machine. Brian Orakpo has played in space before and is a top 5 talent. If he slipped to 14, I would absolutely trade up and get him with 47 but not 34.

 

[mgteich]

I now understand. Because posters on this board might have drafted Gholston, THEREFORE Belichick should not consider Orapko.

I would suggest that Belichick does fine in evaluating what linebackers and defensive ends fit in our system. It is very tricky to evaluate which players will fit it well to our 3-4 two gap.

And BTW, I think it way too early too consider Gholston a bust. Obviously, Belichick judged well and met our need at ILB with Mayo.

What you really seem to be saying is that we should avoid players that posters consider to be 43 OLB's because they might not be worth the value of the draft pick.

No, what we're really asking is the following: Having dodged a bullet on an overmuscled bulky 4-3 DE with gaudy stats last year who showed none of the agility and skills necessary to convert to 3-4 OLB and who was the outstanding bomb of his rookie year, do we want to trade up in the first round this year to try and make up for it with another such guy?

There was nothing wrong with Gholston as a talent last year. He had some motor issues and wasn't the sharpest tack in the toolbox, but he had top 10 talent. So does Orapko. But neither one fits well as a 3-4 OLB.

If Andre Smith falls to 23, should the Pats draft him and convert him to 3-4 OLB? I think he would be awesome at the point of attack. Should we trade up for him if he falls to the mid teens?

 

[Spiral]

I think the Patriots should be patient and let the draft come to them. My guess is since there are a lot of players from 15-40 with similar grades, there will be someone available at 23 that most "experts" think will be long gone by then. The Patriots have put themselves in a great position for this draft--primarily by addressing most of their needs in free agency, and by stockpiling picks in the sweetspot of this year's draft, allowing them to go BPA with every pick.

I've watched most of UT's games the past two years. Orakpo has 2-3 plays per game that are awesome, but he can disappear for long stretches of games. He's probably got a great highlight package, but the body of work just isn't there. He also missed several games the past two years with a knee injury, and that may be a cause for concern. From the UT defense, I go for DT Roy Miller, as long as you can draft him late enough to get him on the PS.

 

[AzPatsFan]

If he's available in the 14 to 17 range would you move up for the guy?

No!:banned:

 

[LloydBraun]

I am struggling to put my mind around what the Pats will do. If I had to guess right now, I would guess they take English. But, I think there is a chance they will take one of the stud OT's that drop. Then, they would take a DT like Hood at 34.

The top value in this draft is on both lines and at WR. It just so happens that we need players (long-term) at these positions. We also need ILB help and S help.

The ILB will come from later in round 2 or rounds 3-5. There are a lot of intriguing players at the ILB position, but none that stand out to me at the 23 or 34. Players like Sintim (late 2nd), McKillop, Brinkley, etc. can be had later on and they will be very good pro's.

The S position also has some quality depth. I think BB will take a S with a later 2nd or one of the 3rd's.

My predictions:

rd 1- OT or English
2nd- a DT (that can play DE in the 3-4), Michael Johnson if he drops, and a G or RB
3rd- S and WR

 

[mayoclinic]

I now understand. Because posters on this board might have drafted Gholston, THEREFORE Belichick should not consider Orapko.

I would suggest that Belichick does fine in evaluating what linebackers and defensive ends fit in our system. It is very tricky to evaluate which players will fit it well to our 3-4 two gap.

And BTW, I think it way too early too consider Gholston a bust. Obviously, Belichick judged well and met our need at ILB with Mayo.

What you really seem to be saying is that we should avoid players that posters consider to be 43 OLB's because they might not be worth the value of the draft pick.

I wouldn't consider Gholston a bust yet either. And I think he is a talented player, but he is a much more natural 4-3 DE than he is a 3-4 OLB. To draft a player that high (particularly one who lacks some of the intangibles to facilitate a major position change) and then expect him to come in and be immediately productive at a major position change is unreasonable. If he does succceed, I believe it will be because Rex Ryan works around his weaknesses and ues him in schemes which plays to his strength - which is what BB would have done.

I think Orapko is more athletic and better suited to OLB than Gholston, but I really see him as being much better suited to a 4-3 DE. Of course we should consider everyone, and I assume the FO is doing due diligence. But my personal take is that using that high of a pick on a guy who's a much more natural DE doesn't make a lto of sense. Of course Belichick "does fine in evaluating what linebackers and defensive ends fit in our system" - there's no question of that, and if he deemed Orapko a worthy investment I would be all for it. I just doubt it will happen, and don't favor it myself absent an endorsement from BB.

 

[Revman]

No. Better to get two good ones than one. I don't think Orakpo is better more value than several other players on board. Alex Mack-Ziggy Hood-Rey Maualuga etc.

 

[TriplecHamp]

No. Better to get two good ones than one. I don't think Orakpo is better more value than several other players on board. Alex Mack-Ziggy Hood-Rey Maualuga etc.

That depends if he is sitting at #15 or so than I think he is.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Only players I'm moving up for are E Brown and B Raji. And they'd have to fall to 12-17 range.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Only players I'm moving up for are E Brown and B Raji. And they'd have to fall to 12-17 range.

I am a big Everette Brown fan but Orakpo is right with him.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Everett Brown is probably the most fluid pass rusher in this draft, not to mention I like how he doubled his production each year in college. He shows he is soaking the knowledge in and getting better with time.

 

[DaBruinz]

If he's available in the 14 to 17 range would you move up for the guy?

No. I don't think the kid has the skillset and build to be a 3-4 OLB. I see him as a 4-3 DE..

 

[DaBruinz]

I can say the same about Barwin

I don't think you could, honestly. They have different skill sets. Orakpo is almost Freeney like in that he's a pure pass rusher who doesn't drop back into coverage and doesn't play the rush well.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mike Mayock had this to say about Orapko in Peter King's column on CNNSI today:

Matthew Stafford, Brandon Pettigrew, more on 2009 NFL draft - Peter King - SI.com

8. He's scared of Brian Orakpo, the Texas defensive end who's the apple of a few teams' eyes in the top half of the first round. "Buyer beware,'' Mayock said. "He's boom or bust. I don't know if he's DeMarcus Ware or Vernon Gholston. I've seen him have some really good games, and I've seen what I considered to be Brandon Pettigrew tearing him apart. The point is, I don't see it all the time from Orakpo, which concerns me.''