Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run???

[Sicilian]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Warren is a big loss for our run D, but a lot of people are falling into the usual logical fallacy when it comes to evaluating NFL defenses. They assume that one position is primarily responsible for half of the plays.

For example, "our lack of apparent OLB talent means we have no pass rush." Even though pass rush can come from many areas, including up the middle (where we may have improved).

"Run defense comes only from having three great D-Linemen. LBs are just there to get the stats and if the secondary is making tackles on run plays that's NEVER a good thing." Wrong. The run defense is a TEAM effort. Having a stout line is a big big part, but having an improved LB corp and better play from the SS position will have a huge impact as well. People point to Ted Washington as the stabilizer in 2003, and he was phenomenal, but Rodney played a big role in improving the run D that year as well.

Also, maybe I'm wrong, but in watching the Saints game I came away thinking this run defense was going to be a strength this year. Barring more injuries, our 1's looked to have a very good Saints ground game pretty wrapped up.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

All of your observations are true, but misleading. The weakness of the Team was against the run last season, despite the incessant blithering about OLBs and Pass Rush. Seymour was suddenly gone, Warren played dinged, Guyton is another Will and more akin to Mayo than a Mike partner. Mackenzie was IRed. Which forced both to try to play Mike at times with imperfect results.

I was never one of the people banging the drum soley about the OLB position. I'm not going to say that I didn't think that position was a problem, because it was. But Belichick's philosophy is to build from the trenches out and that is where we lost the best 3-4 two gapping DE in the league coming off of a career year. It was obvious, IMO, that the biggest problem on defense was at DE. It's looking like we might just have the same problem this year... as of right now anyway.

The secondary suffered from the lack of a really good SS to take Rodney's position, and general lack of experience and a competent 3rd CB. A Bears FA/cut pickup was the best we had. The Pats in 2009 could not stop the run very well.

I agree with all of this.

Yet all they yielded was 110 Yards per game; its not like they were an open door for 200 ypg. The Defense was a lot weaker than it appears to be today,

I don't think you can find anybody who will try to argue that we had the worst rushing defense in the league last year. I certainly don't think that's true. However, as you've admitted, the rushing defense was a problem last season. The better running teams in the league were able to run on us with successful results. This year, the coaching staff appeared to recognize the issue and brought in a couple of big bodies to help compete for the opportunity to improve the run defense. One of them has never played in a two gapping 3-4 and the other one has been a disappointment throughout his career, but at 32 is hoping for a career rejuvenation under the best coach in the league.

and so was the limited Welker/Moss Offense.

No arguments here.

Only the elite teams could sustain drives into the red zone, and then into the endzone against the Pats. The Pats were 10-6, not 6-10. They were 5th in Points Against; were second fewest in opponent's red zone opportunities.

You should check out other threads. I got into this EXTENSIVELY with AndyJohnson. The elite teams were not only able to sustain drives into the end zone, but they were able to score 30+ points against us. Teams with sensible game plans (i.e. - The Dolphins with the Wildcat and the Broncos with the Wild Horse) were able to use their running game to eventually open up the passing game big time with Henne and Orton posting career days against our defense. On top of that, our schedule was decidedly average, trending toward below average. The fact that we were fifth in scoring speaks to both that schedule as well as the relative effectiveness of the bend-but-don't-break philosophy which gets unfairly lampooned on here. We stood our ground on several occasions against lesser teams but were exposed against better teams last year - both on the ground and through the air. This year, the schedule is even tougher.

This 2010 Edition already appears to be stronger than last year's club. The CBs are better/deeper than at any time in the 2000 decade,even without a single superstar CB. The ILBs now have a pair of Wills and a pair of Mikes; with potential Stars leading at both positions, in Mayo and Spikes. The Defensive line had four #1 picks before Warren 's IR, but still has 3, like the glory days, and in Wright, Pryor and possibly Brace or someone emerging from the cast of thousands auditions, has at least two adequate rotation players.

Disagreed about the CB's. The early 2000's corps were extremely strong led by one of the best in the league at the time. The ILB's I agree on. They appear to be extremely strong. The defensive line I currently see as a work in progress. Hoping for good results.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

This is the part that I don't get from some people. If the Pats are limping in their run defense, the Saints are crawling and the Colts have slogging through deep mud with broken legs. Last time I looked, nobody was digging graves for those teams.

You just can't isolate one part of the game without considering the others. The Pats have enough strength in other areas to make up for breaking in some new talent at DE and OLB.

I have no problem if people want to dump the Pats D off a cliff...just make sure that the broken bodies of the Saints and Colts are already at the bottom. Otherwise, the thing smashed on the rocks below would be your credibility.

The bolded should be engraved in stone.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

The elite teams were not only able to sustain drives into the end zone, but they were able to score 30+ points against us.

The Pats gave up 30 points to the Colts, Saints and Texans, all on the road.
The Jets gave up 30 points to the Pats and Miami twice.
The Saints gave up 30 points to the Skins and Fins, plus 27 to the Lions, Giants and Falcons.
The Colts gave up 30 points to the Pats, Jags and Bills.

If you are going to use the "giving up 30 points" angle, at least be fair in comparing the Pats to other teams.

If you are going to dig into the context of each game, be sure to include the refs and 4th-n-2 against the Colts (it was 31-14 in the 4th) and the injuries and meaningless game against the Texans (it was 27-13 in the 4th). The Saints game was a legit beating.

Teams with sensible game plans (i.e. - The Dolphins with the Wildcat and the Broncos with the Wild Horse) were able to use their running game to eventually open up the passing game big time with Henne and Orton posting career days against our defense.

You mean the game where the Fins ran for 90 yards on 26 carries (and didn't run the wildcat...and were outrushed by the Pats) or the game where the Donks ran for 103 yards on 25 carries (about the same as the Pats and the drives with the Wild Horse formation lead to exactly 3 points).

Henne and Orton certainly handled the Pats pass defense far too easily in those games. Correlating that to a difficulty with their rushing attack not only ignores facts but is completely missing the point. The defense knew Henne and Orton were passing and they still couldn't do much against them.

On top of that, our schedule was decidedly average, trending toward below average. The fact that we were fifth in scoring speaks to both that schedule as well as the relative effectiveness of the bend-but-don't-break philosophy which gets unfairly lampooned on here. We stood our ground on several occasions against lesser teams but were exposed against better teams last year - both on the ground and through the air. This year, the schedule is even tougher.

So lets compare. First the 10 games that are pretty equal from last year to this year:
Jets = Jets
Fins = Fins
Bills = Bills
Ravens (home) = Ravens (home)
Lions (road) = Bucs (London)
Cincy (home) = Titans (home)
Browns (road) = Jags (home)

Now the 3 games where the schedule is harder (assumes Favre is QB for the Vikings):
SD (road) > Broncos (road)
Vikings (home) > Falcons (home)
Bears (road) > Panthers (home)

That leaves 3 games where the Pats get a break:
Colts (home) < Colts (road)
Packers (home) < Saints (road)
Steelers (road) < Texans (road)

Looks pretty similar to me. Sure you can say that X team has improved dramatically more than the Pats, but that is hard to say objectively.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Hm. I had thought that they were running a two gap system back then and maintained it when they promoted Bates. I could be wrong. I know Coyer is now coordinating a Tampa-2 in Indy this year, but I thought that he was running a two gap in Denver and when he was replaced by Bates, they moved Warren because they thought that he was a better fit in a one gap system while Sam Adams was ideal for them.

Denver was a one gap. Remember they brought in all the old Cleveland guys when Crenell changed the system there? I dont remember Sam Adams going to Denver, but I could be wrong.
I dont think Warren ever played in a 2gap.

Regardless, though, let me just remind everyone that most people here considered Warren to be an inside guy and a JAG when we first signed him. Now that he's going to be a start, he's the automatic answer who will work wonders for our defense and make us forget about Seymour and Warren.

Is your point you doubt Warren because he failed in a 2gap, or because you dont want to believe in him.
It is very strange that your response to the fact you were relying on to disparage him is "Oh yeah, but everyone thought he was going to suck"
I would think your response would be "Oh, maybe he will be better than I thought, since that deficiency may have been wrong".

I'm sure some fans called him a jag or misunderstood how a 43 DT would line up in a 34, but I dont think that has anything to do with how he will play.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/10/336006-patriots-sign-gerard-warren.html

Furthermore, for every guy that BB has rescued from bad teams and bad coaching, there is another guy that he brought in that still either played like garbage or just looked like a JAG. Of course, after only one preseason game, we can't make a judgment either way and need a bigger body of work to look at. With that said, I'm not exactly sure what you saw out of him that inspired you. The couple of times I saw him get into the backfield resulted from blown blocking assignments along the Saints' offensive line. Other than that, he looked like a standard defensive lineman. A JAG, if you will. Other than that, I didn't see anything to be overly impressed about.

It sounds like you are offended by any thought he can play.
How does how many time he got into the backfield have anything to do with playing 2gap defense? What do you want him to do when there is a blown assingnment, stand up and say Oh I cant make this play becuase it is only because someone missed a block?
I watched him very closely and here is what I saw. (none of which included the infamous excuse of a missed block btw)
I saw good, sturdy 2 gap discipline. I saw an above average performance at holding the point of attack. I saw VERY good adjustment from 2gap discipline to reading pass and getting into pass rush technique without getting tied up first. I saw an adequate job of shedding the block and being under control to get to ball carrier. I saw potential for abandoning responsibility in order to make a play, which needs to be addressed but is expected of a guy transitioning to a 2 gap.
My biggest concern with Warren is that at his size and his age whether the stamina will be there. I'm not really concerned at all that he can do the job aside from that issue.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

The Pats gave up 30 points to the Colts, Saints and Texans, all on the road.
The Jets gave up 30 points to the Pats and Miami twice.
The Saints gave up 30 points to the Skins and Fins, plus 27 to the Lions, Giants and Falcons.
The Colts gave up 30 points to the Pats, Jags and Bills.

If you are going to use the "giving up 30 points" angle, at least be fair in comparing the Pats to other teams.

I really don't see how bringing up other teams is in any way relevant to the problems that the Pats had on defense last season and the steps that we've taken to solve them. Especially when the thread here has absolutely nothing to do with any of those teams and everything to do with the Patriots. If you want to start a thread comparing those defenses to our's, I'll be happy to engage you there.

If you are going to dig into the context of each game, be sure to include the refs and 4th-n-2 against the Colts (it was 31-14 in the 4th) and the injuries and meaningless game against the Texans (it was 27-13 in the 4th). The Saints game was a legit beating.

You can blame the refs for that all you want. But the refs only gave them up until 21 points. The Colts pretty much earned the rest. The referees didn't give them the whole game. The Saints game we got torched as well. The Denver and Miami games were nightmares. The Texans game we clearly went in it to win it. It's a simple fact of the matter that this defense didn't perform like a top five defense at several points of the year. Do you really believe that the 2009 version was a top five defense in the NFL?

You mean the game where the Fins ran for 90 yards on 26 carries (and didn't run the wildcat...and were outrushed by the Pats) or the game where the Donks ran for 103 yards on 25 carries (about the same as the Pats and the drives with the Wild Horse formation lead to exactly 3 points).

Really, when Orton and Henne (leading one of the worst passing offenses in the league) are torching you the way they were, doesn't the running game take a back seat? And really, rushing for the same amount as the Broncos (who put up 103 yards on the defense with Knowshon Moreno and his merry gang of bandits) doesn't really excuse the poor effort the defense put out on the field that day. The 2009 squad couldn't stop the better competition and allowed two very pedestrian quarterbacks to put up career days.

Henne and Orton certainly handled the Pats pass defense far too easily in those games. Correlating that to a difficulty with their rushing attack not only ignores facts but is completely missing the point.

How does it miss the point? The running games were taking a toll on the defense early and forced the defense to play conservatively (at least in the Broncos game) which opened up passing lanes for both quarterbacks. Pointing out difficulty in run defense and the pass defense, especially in regards to this thread, is absolutely relevant.

The defense knew Henne and Orton were passing and they still couldn't do much against them.

I have to think that this pretty much destroys any point you could possibly make about the defense being top five.

So lets compare. First the 10 games that are pretty equal from last year to this year:
Jets = Jets
Fins = Fins
Bills = Bills
Ravens (home) = Ravens (home)

I'm not sure how you can say any of these teams are equal. Each and every single one of them have made moves that could very well make them better teams.

Lions (road) = Bucs (London)

I have to think the 2010 Lions currently have more talent than the 2009 Bucs.

Cincy (home) = Titans (home)

Cincy is a division winner while the Titans were 0-6 and going through some SERIOUS issues at the time we played them.

Browns (road) = Jags (home)

This is pretty comparable.

Now the 3 games where the schedule is harder (assumes Favre is QB for the Vikings):
SD (road) > Broncos (road)
Vikings (home) > Falcons (home)
Bears (road) > Panthers (home)

The only one I could disagree on is the Bears game. It depends on how Cutler adjusts to Martz's new schemes.

That leaves 3 games where the Pats get a break:
Colts (home) < Colts (road)
Packers (home) < Saints (road)
Steelers (road) < Texans (road)

At the time we're playing the Steelers, they could have both Polamalu healthy (who is the key to their defense) and Big Ben hitting his groove. I would have to think that they would be better than the 2009 Texans.

Looks pretty similar to me. Sure you can say that X team has improved dramatically more than the Pats, but that is hard to say objectively.

Actually, I wasn't saying any of those teams have improved dramatically over the Pats. What I WAS saying was that those games look to be tougher than the 2009 schedule right now and should present a lot of challenges to both the offense and the defense of the 2010 Pats. Remember now that I said that I thought this team would go 12-4 when predicting their record.

 

[condon84]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

To the OP:

If you can't be optimistic about an upcoming season, why be a fan?

 

[Sicilian]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

I'm not sure how you can say any of these teams are equal. Each and every single one of them have made moves that could very well make them better teams.

The key word here is "could". Many also have moves that could make them worse than last year. The Bills lost TO and Schoebel. The Dolphins added Dansby and Marshall, but lost both starting OLBs. The Jets have been covered here ad nauseum here. The Ravens really haven't lost anybody, so I COULD see them getting better, but I wouldn't say it's a foregone conclusion. I think it's safe to assume that each of those teams has as good chance of being worse as they do of being better, so those games are comparable.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

The key word here is "could". Many also have moves that could make them worse than last year. The Bills lost TO and Schoebel. The Dolphins added Dansby and Marshall, but lost both starting OLBs. The Jets have been covered here ad nauseum here. The Ravens really haven't lost anybody, so I COULD see them getting better, but I wouldn't say it's a foregone conclusion. I think it's safe to assume that each of those teams has as good chance of being worse as they do of being better, so those games are comparable.

Ravens have lost a starting corner for the season and Ed Reed for at least a big part of it.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Denver was a one gap. Remember they brought in all the old Cleveland guys when Crenell changed the system there? I dont remember Sam Adams going to Denver, but I could be wrong.
I dont think Warren ever played in a 2gap.

Yeah, I could have been wrong. I always thought that he played in a two gap system in Denver. That's why I thought they moved him and brought in Sam Adams, because they didn't feel that he was an ideal fit in the system. Maybe someone with more knowledge on the subject can come in and elaborate as to whether or not it was actually a two gap.

Is your point you doubt Warren because he failed in a 2gap, or because you dont want to believe in him.

I have my doubts about Warren being our savior at DE because I've seen him play. As I've said before, he didn't seem to be anything more than a JAG D-Lineman. That's actually been his thing throughout his career.

What's strange here is the fact that you're going to that well with me. I'm pretty sure that almost 13,000 posts with the amount of time I spend on here would tell you that I'm not just some troll "Pats fan" that's only here to be completely negative in hopes that I'm right and the team is wrong and suffers for it. I've said FAR more positive things about this team recently than I have negative things. When it comes to Warren, I'm calling it like I see it. Maybe he didn't play in a two gap, but he hasn't exactly impressed either. Is he the answer? Not sure. I'm going to have to see him play more. As of right now, I can only go by his career and what I saw Thursday night: neither of which were particularly impressive.

It is very strange that your response to the fact you were relying on to disparage him is "Oh yeah, but everyone thought he was going to suck"

First of all, I'm not trying to disparage him. That would mean that I have an agenda here and I clearly don't. My constructive criticisms of this defense and the player in question are for what I feel is in the best interests of this team. So far, I've been met "well, he's playing for Bill Belichick now so expect better results". Now, one who just wants to go with the flow would say, "yeah, I guess that's so. Belichick is the best defensive coach in the league". And I can't deny the latter. But one who can take a second to think critically on the subject will also realize that Belichick's experienced just as many failures with JAG projects such as Warren coming from badly coached teams. That person can look at his body of work and can express doubts based on that body of work while still hoping for the best, which is what I did.

Secondly, where did I say that he was going to suck? Let me remind you of what I said here...

Regardless, though, let me just remind everyone that most people here considered Warren to be an inside guy and a JAG when we first signed him. Now that he's going to be a start, he's the automatic answer who will work wonders for our defense and make us forget about Seymour and Warren.

Reminding the same people that are now relying on him to be the difference maker vs. the run that they originally thought he was going to be an inside guy and a JAG is pretty far from saying he's going to suck.

I would think your response would be "Oh, maybe he will be better than I thought, since that deficiency may have been wrong".

I have said just that. Multiple times in other threads and in this thread...

For this reason we should be doing all we can to address the DE situation. Maybe Gerard Warren is the answer for one of those DE slots.

I'm sure some fans called him a jag or misunderstood how a 43 DT would line up in a 34, but I dont think that has anything to do with how he will play.

He could really go either way. Maybe he's just another guy on our defensive line, like he's been for other teams throughout his career. Or, maybe he undergoes a career renaissance under BB and a new system (if he hasn't played in one before).

It sounds like you are offended by any thought he can play.

Yes, because at 13,000 posts and hours upon hours dedicated to discussing and rooting for this team on top of the 100's of dollars of merchandise purchased in appreciation of this team, all I really want to do is see them fail.

:bricks:

How does how many time he got into the backfield have anything to do with playing 2gap defense? What do you want him to do when there is a blown assingnment, stand up and say Oh I cant make this play becuase it is only because someone missed a block?

The particular point that I was responding to concerned MLR saying that he was impressed by Warren's play and the entire defense's play. The only thing that I could think of was the couple of instances he got into the backfield and disrupted things. I thought it was only natural to point out that it was because of blown assignments. At the same time, I saw Warren display a few instances of good technique (such as the swim move) to try to beat his man. But the bottom line is that I honestly didn't see anything which I would deem "impressive".

I watched him very closely and here is what I saw. (none of which included the infamous excuse of a missed block btw)
I saw good, sturdy 2 gap discipline. I saw an above average performance at holding the point of attack. I saw VERY good adjustment from 2gap discipline to reading pass and getting into pass rush technique without getting tied up first. I saw an adequate job of shedding the block and being under control to get to ball carrier. I saw potential for abandoning responsibility in order to make a play, which needs to be addressed but is expected of a guy transitioning to a 2 gap.
My biggest concern with Warren is that at his size and his age whether the stamina will be there. I'm not really concerned at all that he can do the job aside from that issue.

I'm not going to tell you what you did or didn't see because we both have very different sets of eyes. But I think you should watch the game again. Warren does a great job of holding up at the point of attack on some plays. On other plays, two blockers are able to drive him back off the line of scrimmage. As a DE in our system, Warren's going to be expected to hold his own against two blockers regularly. Hopefully he improves on that.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

The key word here is "could". Many also have moves that could make them worse than last year. The Bills lost TO and Schoebel.

There are many people who think that the loss of TO is an addition by subtraction. Schobel will be a loss, no doubt. To be honest though, they weren't the teams I was thinking of when I made that statement.

The Dolphins added Dansby and Marshall, but lost both starting OLBs.

Jason Taylor is just about done. Cameron Wake was far more proficient at getting into the offensive backfield last season than Taylor was. On top of that, they added Misi. So it isn't like they didn't address the problem. Personally, I think Wake is an improvement over Taylor based on the Dolphins games I saw last season (which was about as many as I saw of the Pats). Misi I actually wanted in the draft but eh. The biggest loss they have is their NT. The question there is whether or not Nolan can scheme around it. I don't think anybody can deny that Marshall is a definite gain for them.

The Jets have been covered here ad nauseum here.

Aye.

The Ravens really haven't lost anybody, so I COULD see them getting better, but I wouldn't say it's a foregone conclusion. I think it's safe to assume that each of those teams has as good chance of being worse as they do of being better, so those games are comparable.

The Ravens gained a pretty good WR to go with that running game. The real question there is how much they're going to miss the injured guys in their secondary.

 

[Deus Irae]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Yeah, I could have been wrong. I always thought that he played in a two gap system in Denver. That's why I thought they moved him and brought in Sam Adams, because they didn't feel that he was an ideal fit in the system. Maybe someone with more knowledge on the subject can come in and elaborate as to whether or not it was actually a

Denver, under Bates, was switching over to a 2-gap system. Warren couldn't get it done, so he got shipped to the Raiders. Here's an ESPN article that covers some of it:

But while Warren was still listed as the starter at right tackle on the unofficial depth chart, his playing style no longer dovetailed with the Denver defense and that, in part, has made him expendable. New coordinator Jim Bates prefers two-gap tackles, interior players who are anchors more than penetrators, and Warren has always been a one-gap defender, a guy who likes to get upfield.

Broncos get undisclosed pick from Raiders for DT Warren - NFL - ESPN

Now, he's got more years of experience under his belt, so maybe the second chance will work out for him.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

I really don't see how bringing up other teams is in any way relevant to the problems that the Pats had on defense last season and the steps that we've taken to solve them. Especially when the thread here has absolutely nothing to do with any of those teams and everything to do with the Patriots. If you want to start a thread comparing those defenses to our's, I'll be happy to engage you there.

You brought up the 30 points angle. My point was you can say the same thing about the top-ranked Jets and both Super Bowl teams. If you want to retract your point about giving up 30 points to a few teams as being an indicator of a chronic problem, that is fine. If you are going to stick with it for the Pats, why is it a problem to see if your point holds water by looking at other teams for comparison?

Do you really believe that the 2009 version was a top five defense in the NFL?

Probably not, but I would include them in the discussion. It is not a ridiculous contention.

Really, when Orton and Henne (leading one of the worst passing offenses in the league) are torching you the way they were, doesn't the running game take a back seat? And really, rushing for the same amount as the Broncos (who put up 103 yards on the defense with Knowshon Moreno and his merry gang of bandits) doesn't really excuse the poor effort the defense put out on the field that day. The 2009 squad couldn't stop the better competition and allowed two very pedestrian quarterbacks to put up career days.

This thread is about stopping the run. If you want to discuss the problems recent Pats teams had in stopping the pass, I'm on board with that.

How does it miss the point? The running games were taking a toll on the defense early and forced the defense to play conservatively (at least in the Broncos game) which opened up passing lanes for both quarterbacks. Pointing out difficulty in run defense and the pass defense, especially in regards to this thread, is absolutely relevant.

It would be relevant if you were correct. You just aren't. The Fins ran Pat White out for a few busted plays and then never flirted with the Wildcat. They didn't run particularly well and went to Henne heavily (with only some draws mixed in) through most of the 2nd half. The Donks gave up on the Wild Horse when it didn't lead to points and leaned on Orton after halftime. Completely opposite to your contention, Moreno got 20 of his 88 yards in OT AFTER Orton's passing got the Pats on their heels.

I'm not sure how you can say any of these teams are equal. Each and every single one of them have made moves that could very well make them better teams.

I'm saying that the game difficulty for the Pats is about the same. If the Pats improved more, then the games would absolutely be easier. I choose to think that the teams are approx. the same (including the Pats) until we see different. Seems kind of silly to including improvements for other teams and not consider them for the Pats.

I have to think the 2010 Lions currently have more talent than the 2009 Bucs.

Maybe. Maybe not. I hope you aren't depending on the Lions justifying your assessment of the schedule difficulty.

Actually, I wasn't saying any of those teams have improved dramatically over the Pats. What I WAS saying was that those games look to be tougher than the 2009 schedule right now and should present a lot of challenges to both the offense and the defense of the 2010 Pats. Remember now that I said that I thought this team would go 12-4 when predicting their record.

I would agree with your record prediction and the schedule may turn out to be more difficult, but it doesn't look that way at this point. The home schedule looks to be more difficult but the road schedule looks easier. Given that Brady hasn't lost a home regular season game since 2006, I like the way that should play out.

 

[lillestroom]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

To the OP:

If you can't be optimistic about an upcoming season, why be a fan?

Because I'm passionate about my own team?

Because I dont want to see other teams simply eat up six or seven minutes each time they get the ball and running 250+ yards on us week-win, week-out?

Whats the point having one of the top three O's in the game if they are getting significantly less time on the field than the opposition?

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Yeah, I could have been wrong. I always thought that he played in a two gap system in Denver. That's why I thought they moved him and brought in Sam Adams, because they didn't feel that he was an ideal fit in the system. Maybe someone with more knowledge on the subject can come in and elaborate as to whether or not it was actually a two gap.

Not necessary, they didn't play 2 gap, I already addressed that.

I have my doubts about Warren being our savior at DE because I've seen him play. As I've said before, he didn't seem to be anything more than a JAG D-Lineman. That's actually been his thing throughout his career.

Huh? He was a first round pick who has been a starter in the NFL for 9 years. That is not a JAG.
Savior? Why the hyperbole?

What's strange here is the fact that you're going to that well with me. I'm pretty sure that almost 13,000 posts with the amount of time I spend on here would tell you that I'm not just some troll "Pats fan" that's only here to be completely negative in hopes that I'm right and the team is wrong and suffers for it. I've said FAR more positive things about this team recently than I have negative things.

I didnt say all of your posts are negative.
It is curious to me that you said the reason you were down on Warren was that he failed in a 2 gap. When that was clarified you went to a thead when he was signed where you thoguht posters called him a JAG.
That is very defensive, and seems like an attempt to protect your uniformed original opinion.

When it comes to Warren, I'm calling it like I see it. Maybe he didn't play in a two gap, but he hasn't exactly impressed either. Is he the answer? Not sure. I'm going to have to see him play more. As of right now, I can only go by his career and what I saw Thursday night: neither of which were particularly impressive.

He has started for 9 years. How is that not impressive?



[quoe]First of all, I'm not trying to disparage him. That would mean that I have an agenda here and I clearly don't. My constructive criticisms of this defense and the player in question are for what I feel is in the best interests of this team.[/quote]
I wont comment here, because that says your opinion and approach would have an impact on the team and I am sure that isnt what you were trying to say.

So far, I've been met "well, he's playing for Bill Belichick now so expect better results".

Who said that? I didnt/

Now, one who just wants to go with the flow would say, "yeah, I guess that's so. Belichick is the best defensive coach in the league". And I can't deny the latter. But one who can take a second to think critically on the subject will also realize that Belichick's experienced just as many failures with JAG projects such as Warren coming from badly coached teams. That person can look at his body of work and can express doubts based on that body of work while still hoping for the best, which is what I did.

But thats not what you did. You said you were worried because he failed in a 2gap. When that was wrong, you changed the basis of your opinion to the reaction of message board posters to his signing.

Secondly, where did I say that he was going to suck? Let me remind you of what I said here...

Regardless, though, let me just remind everyone that most people here considered Warren to be an inside guy and a JAG when we first signed him. Now that he's going to be a start, he's the automatic answer who will work wonders for our defense and make us forget about Seymour and Warren.

Well that sounds like you are criticizing anyone who feels OK with him at DE. Again why the hyperbole? Is anyone saying he will work wonders and make us forget Seymour ad Warren? You appear to be purposely trying to make anyone proWarren look stupid b exagerating their position to sound stupid. That would be a tactic of an antiWarren agenda would it not?

Reminding the same people that are now relying on him to be the difference maker vs. the run that they originally thought he was going to be an inside guy and a JAG is pretty far from saying he's going to suck.

But you werent reminding anyone of their own opinion you tried to find a negative to replace your incorrect slam that he failed in a 2gap.

I have said just that. Multiple times in other threads and in this thread...

For this reason we should be doing all we can to address the DE situation. Maybe Gerard Warren is the answer for one of those DE slots.



He could really go either way.

I cant really address every post you ever made, I am discussing this thread.

Maybe he's just another guy on our defensive line, like he's been for other teams throughout his career. Or, maybe he undergoes a career renaissance under BB and a new system (if he hasn't played in one before).

Or maybe he just is the player he is and fills a need.

Yes, because at 13,000 posts and hours upon hours dedicated to discussing and rooting for this team on top of the 100's of dollars of merchandise purchased in appreciation of this team, all I really want to do is see them fail.

:bricks:

Your reaction to being wrong about his 2gap experience was to find a different way to criticize him, and a lame one at that. :bricks:

The particular point that I was responding to concerned MLR saying that he was impressed by Warren's play and the entire defense's play. The only thing that I could think of was the couple of instances he got into the backfield and disrupted things. I thought it was only natural to point out that it was because of blown assignments. At the same time, I saw Warren display a few instances of good technique (such as the swim move) to try to beat his man. But the bottom line is that I honestly didn't see anything which I would deem "impressive".

Good 2gap DL play usually doesnt fall under the heading of impressive.

I'm not going to tell you what you did or didn't see because we both have very different sets of eyes. But I think you should watch the game again. Warren does a great job of holding up at the point of attack on some plays. On other plays, two blockers are able to drive him back off the line of scrimmage. As a DE in our system, Warren's going to be expected to hold his own against two blockers regularly. Hopefully he improves on that.

I really dont need to go back I saw it already.
I do strongly disagree that a DE in our system deals with two blockers regularly.
PErhaps you can point me to which plays he was driven back by 2 blockers because I didnt see them on my tape. He was in for only 20 plays and I imagine almost half of them were passes, so it shouldn't be too hard to find them. I dont think they actually exist though, but I'll be the first to admit if I am wrong.

 

[Sicilian]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Because I dont want to see other teams simply eat up six or seven minutes each time they get the ball and running 250+ yards on us week-win, week-out?

I think, when I'm old and gray, and my grandkids come to me and ask, "Grandpa? Why are you so bitter?" I'll tell them it's because of exaggerations like this.

No one was running for 250+ yards on us. Not even once, let alone "week in, week out". Here are our rushing yards allowed each game, with that opponents rank in total rushing yards:

Buf: 90 (16th)
NYJ: 117 (1st)
Atl: 58 (15th)
Balt: 116 (5th)
Den: 103 (18th)
Ten: 193 (2nd)
TB: 89 (23rd)
Mia: 133 (4th)
Ind: 91 (32nd)
NYJ: 104 (1st)
NO: 113 (6th)
Mia: 88 (4th)
Car: 126 (3rd)
Buf: 105 (16th)
Jax: 98 (10th)
Hou: 144 (30th)
Bal (playoffs): 234 (5th)

We played each of the top SIX rushing teams at least once, with the number 1, 4, and 5 teams coming up twice. Other than the debacle against Baltimore in the playoffs, our worst games were Ten (2nd most rushing yards, a 2000 yard rusher, in a game we still won 59-0), and Hou (which was not a full squad game reall).

Aside from that, every game where we allowed over 110 yards was against a top six running team.

So please, spare me the "OMG WE'RE GONNA BE THE WORST RUN DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE!!!!" crap. It's old and has no factual basis.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

You brought up the 30 points angle. My point was you can say the same thing about the top-ranked Jets and both Super Bowl teams. If you want to retract your point about giving up 30 points to a few teams as being an indicator of a chronic problem, that is fine. If you are going to stick with it for the Pats, why is it a problem to see if your point holds water by looking at other teams for comparison?

Yeah, okay. Other teams allowed 30 point games too. How does that make them a relevant discussion in a thread about the Pats defense and their issues in 2009? How does that change the fact that the Pats defense, who you think was a top five defense in 2009, had some obvious problems against both the run and the pass? Short answer: it doesn't.

Probably not, but I would include them in the discussion. It is not a ridiculous contention.

So basically, one would be safe in assuming that, with all of the obvious improvements to the unit, you're expecting the Pats to field the top ranked defense in the league?

This thread is about stopping the run. If you want to discuss the problems recent Pats teams had in stopping the pass, I'm on board with that.

This is especially delicious being that the following was the quote that you used to respond to me...

Henne and Orton certainly handled the Pats pass defense far too easily in those games. Correlating that to a difficulty with their rushing attack not only ignores facts but is completely missing the point.

Sure, this thread is about stopping the run. One can reasonably expect it to boil down to the defense as a whole. With that said, my point stands. The fact that we were allowing close to or over 100 yards in those games is just as relevant as the fact that those gains were helping the opposing offense torch us through the air.

Now, with all of that said, are you under the impression that we fielded a stout run defense last season?

It would be relevant if you were correct. You just aren't. The Fins ran Pat White out for a few busted plays and then never flirted with the Wildcat.

Wait, wait... I thought the Fins never went to the Wildcat. Isn't that what you said before? So now they have? Which one is it? The simple fact of the matter is that wildcat or not, the Dolphins had some relative success running the ball against our defense.

They didn't run particularly well and went to Henne heavily (with only some draws mixed in) through most of the 2nd half.

And, as you said, the team knew what was coming and still couldn't stop one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL in 2009. How exactly does that help your point that the Pats were a top five defense last season?

The Donks gave up on the Wild Horse when it didn't lead to points and leaned on Orton after halftime. Completely opposite to your contention, Moreno got 20 of his 88 yards in OT AFTER Orton's passing got the Pats on their heels.

If you couldn't see how using the Wild Horse right off the bat put the defense on their heels and made them ultra-susceptible to Orton and the pass, I don't know what to tell you. I would think that you would take that olive branch since, again, Orton torching the defense without any conceivable help from the running game would all but destroy the point that you're trying to make that the 2009 Pats were a top five defense. At this point, you're doing ten times more damage to your argument than I am.

I'm saying that the game difficulty for the Pats is about the same. If the Pats improved more, then the games would absolutely be easier. I choose to think that the teams are approx. the same (including the Pats) until we see different. Seems kind of silly to including improvements for other teams and not consider them for the Pats.

Considering improvements for the Pats (which I have) doesn't make the games this year any less of a challenge on paper at this point. We've obviously improved this year, but the upcoming season's schedule is absolutely more brutal than last year. For one, we don't have two home games in a row. For another, our opponent's win-loss total is 136-120. Our schedule features us playing the AFC North winner, followed division rival and AFC runner up Jets, followed by the Bills and Dolphins in Miami (where they always give us problems), followed the Ravens who slaughtered us in the opening round without use of a quarterback, followed by the 13-3 AFC West Champion Chargers (who give us a hard time as well), followed by the NFC runner up and AFC North Champion Vikings, followed by the Browns and Steelers, followed by the AFC South Champion and Super Bowl runner-up Colts (who have owned us for the last few seasons), then Lions, Jets, Bears, Packers, Bills, and Dolphins. The second half of our schedule gives us a chance to catch up if we need it, but that's no easy schedule.

Maybe. Maybe not. I hope you aren't depending on the Lions justifying your assessment of the schedule difficulty.

You're the one holding onto the Lions and refusing to discuss anyone else. Not me.

I would agree with your record prediction and the schedule may turn out to be more difficult, but it doesn't look that way at this point. The home schedule looks to be more difficult but the road schedule looks easier. Given that Brady hasn't lost a home regular season game since 2006, I like the way that should play out.

That's one of the main reasons I saw 12 wins.

 

[RayClay]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

I had thought Denver picked up two bust (so they said) tackles from Cleveland, but it was Warren and DE Courtney Brown. Warren and Michael Myers are listed as the R,L tackles by pro ref in 2005-6.

 

[Kontradiction]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

I'm going to start off by pointing out that turning the majority of the argument towards what I am doing and what I'm not doing doesn't really strengthen any position that you have. Jesus. For someone that "didn't want to get in the middle of this", you sure couldn't help yourself when it came to me, could you?

Huh? He was a first round pick who has been a starter in the NFL for 9 years. That is not a JAG.

The pretty common consensus on Warren is that he's been disappointing for a first round draft pick and has been moved around to four different teams while not really being a difference maker anywhere he's gone. That's the base definition of Just Another Guy.

Savior? Why the hyperbole?

Because the sudden change of opinions around here amuses me.

I didnt say all of your posts are negative.
It is curious to me that you said the reason you were down on Warren was that he failed in a 2 gap. When that was clarified you went to a thead when he was signed where you thoguht posters called him a JAG.
That is very defensive, and seems like an attempt to protect your uniformed original opinion.

Actually, it wasn't completely uninformed. It was MISinformed. Is getting shipped out because your defensive coordinator diagnoses you as a typical one gap guy that didn't think you were capable in the two gap any better than washing out of the two gap?

Bringing up that thread wasn't my basis for "bashing" Warren. It wasn't even my basis to prove that he was a bad football player. Anybody that's followed Warren (remember now that he played at Florida) could tell you that he really wasn't anything special in his career. Moreover, bringing up that thread was my attempt to show everyone how quickly opinions change around here. A few months ago, Warren was labeled a "JAG" by most on here. Now that Warren's out and we're looking at him, he's suddenly a "very capable two gap DE", in spite of the fact that, as you say, this is the first time in his career playing the two gap. That's what I considered humorous. The fact that you're now bent out of shape about it let's me know I hit the mark.

He has started for 9 years. How is that not impressive?

Uh, he's a professional football player. Nobody has ever taken that away from him. But if the barometer for being "impressive" is starting games over a long period, should we start being impressed with Ted Ginn? After all, he's now on his third year of starting. Joseph Addai has now started for four years. Is he now impressive? Should I bring up more examples off the top of my head?

I wont comment here, because that says your opinion and approach would have an impact on the team and I am sure that isnt what you were trying to say.

I know I don't have a direct impact on the team. But if I'm not allowed to weigh in on what I feel would be in the best interests for the team then what is the point of coming here? Should I just agree with everyone?

Who said that? I didnt/

Actually, that was MLR. You know? The guy I was having the one discussion with that you "really didn't want to jump into"?

But thats not what you did. You said you were worried because he failed in a 2gap. When that was wrong, you changed the basis of your opinion to the reaction of message board posters to his signing.

As usual, you're grasping on to one part for dear life. I'm not going to address why I brought up the thread because I already did that, and would have thought it would be obvious. However, you're now saying that I haven't looked at and discussed his body of work from his entire career in this thread? I've already said I was making my observations based on his entire body of work in the pros. The fact that I was mistaken about the type of defense that Denver ran in 2007 and the reason why Warren was given his walking papers (because the coaches didn't feel comfortable with him in the two gap) really doesn't change any of that. By the way, did you ever admit to being wrong about that sack that Light gave up on that one website that is now charging people? Just wondering.

Well that sounds like you are criticizing anyone who feels OK with him at DE.

So basically I'm criticizing myself? Because I'm okay with Warren at DE as long as he can get the job done. My question to you is how we can possibly know that right now.

Again why the hyperbole? Is anyone saying he will work wonders and make us forget Seymour ad Warren? You appear to be purposely trying to make anyone proWarren look stupid b exagerating their position to sound stupid.

It's called sarcasm. You might want to look it up sometime. I can't help it that I think it's funny when the majority of the board pans the guy as a JAG when we first sign him and that some are now "excited" about seeing him in the starting unit. Again, why would I want to make myself look stupid? I'm pro-whatever can help this team. If it's Warren then I'll be the first one to cheer his career renaissance with this team. But, apparently, to the "how dare you say anything bad about this team" crowd, constructive criticism based on what you've seen isn't allowed on this forum.

That would be a tactic of an antiWarren agenda would it not?

Nope, it would be a tactic of someone who finds humor in reminding people of how they felt not too long ago. But since you keep bringing it up, let me bring you to your own quote in that thread...

Warren may be a good fit as an inside player in sub packages.
Warren and Wright inside with Ty Warren also, with TBC and TBD outside, and its starting to come together, especially if either Crable or Cunningham can fill the other outside rusher spot.

In subpackages. Meaning you don't expect him to see the field with the base defense based on what you've seen. Fast forward to this thread and you're now making long-winded arguments for why Warren should be considered a solid starter in the base D based off of one preseason game in which the sample size was very small.

See, to me, that's funny.

But you werent reminding anyone of their own opinion you tried to find a negative to replace your incorrect slam that he failed in a 2gap.

Is the fact that his coach considered him incapable of playing in a two gap and then shipped him to a division rival really any better than my incorrect claim? It's like saying, "no, he didn't lose his leg back then. Just his arm".

I cant really address every post you ever made, I am discussing this thread.

What's funny is that post is directly from this thread.

Or maybe he just is the player he is and fills a need.

I've said numerous times that I hope he fills the DE need. Very much so. That would be great news for the defense. I have my doubts though. If there is any doubt as to whether or not he can be a competent starter against the run while also being able to get the push against the pass that he was used to, I would hope that BB is on the phone.

The idea here is to field the best team you possibly can, after all. Is it not?

Your reaction to being wrong about his 2gap experience was to find a different way to criticize him, and a lame one at that. :bricks:

How is it lame to point out that he's been a JAG with four different teams in his career? How is it lame to point out that the majority of posters responding to his signing thread thought that exact same thing a few months back? Are you saying that these are not true?

Good 2gap DL play usually doesnt fall under the heading of impressive.

Really? I was pretty impressed with Seymour when he was here. Sorry you didn't feel the same.

I really dont need to go back I saw it already.
I do strongly disagree that a DE in our system deals with two blockers regularly.
PErhaps you can point me to which plays he was driven back by 2 blockers because I didnt see them on my tape. He was in for only 20 plays and I imagine almost half of them were passes, so it shouldn't be too hard to find them. I dont think they actually exist though, but I'll be the first to admit if I am wrong.

Even if I had the time slots in which they occurred, you'd probably just deny it. Just like denying that Logan Mankins whiffed on a block that was blamed on Matt Light when you have video evidence right in front you. That's why I recommend that YOU watch the game again and focus on Warren and, to a lesser extent, Damione Lewis the entire time. You'll see some good plays followed by some not-so-good plays.

And you can disagree. But a DE in our system DOES, indeed, need to deal with two blockers on passing downs. This is where I saw him struggle when undergoing the transition from a one gap to a two gap player.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Why the optimism? Come season time can we stop the run ???

Yeah, okay. Other teams allowed 30 point games too. How does that make them a relevant discussion in a thread about the Pats defense and their issues in 2009? How does that change the fact that the Pats defense, who you think was a top five defense in 2009, had some obvious problems against both the run and the pass? Short answer: it doesn't.

You made the point that giving up 30 points 3x last year supports your contention that there are obvious problems against the run. The Jets gave up 30 points 3x last year. They didn't have obvious problems against the run or the pass. The fact is that giving up 30 points 3x a year BY ITSELF says nothing. If you can't get this, stop trying to use logic.

So basically, one would be safe in assuming that, with all of the obvious improvements to the unit, you're expecting the Pats to field the top ranked defense in the league?

Nope. Team stat rankings are for losers. The Pats were a division-winner-one-and-done team last year. I'm betting that with the obvious improvements to the defense, they will be even better this year.

This is especially delicious being that the following was the quote that you used to respond to me...

Henne and Orton certainly handled the Pats pass defense far too easily in those games. Correlating that to a difficulty with their rushing attack not only ignores facts but is completely missing the point.

Sure, this thread is about stopping the run. One can reasonably expect it to boil down to the defense as a whole. With that said, my point stands. The fact that we were allowing close to or over 100 yards in those games is just as relevant as the fact that those gains were helping the opposing offense torch us through the air.

I think the Pats pass defense was pretty bad last year. Some bright spots for sure, but generally enough to give you a bad feeling in your stomach in the 4th quarter. Allowing 100 yds on 4 ypc or less to the Fins and the Donks is a fine effort. What were you expecting to see? The Pats kept the ground game relatively under control, got the lead, forced the other team to pass extensively and couldn't stop the opposing QB with the game on the line. Your contentions about the run defense based on these games is out of touch with reality.

Now, with all of that said, are you under the impression that we fielded a stout run defense last season?

Compared to what? They were stout enough to win every game on the schedule. That is good enough for me.

Wait, wait... I thought the Fins never went to the Wildcat. Isn't that what you said before? So now they have? Which one is it? The simple fact of the matter is that wildcat or not, the Dolphins had some relative success running the ball against our defense.

Seriously? That is your ace in the hole? Pat White is only considered "Wildcat" because he is such a horrific QB that running is his only viable option. Go back and check out the game and see how many times they ran Pat White and what resulted. Then look back at your comment:

"Teams with sensible game plans (i.e. - The Dolphins with the Wildcat and the Broncos with the Wild Horse) were able to use their running game to eventually open up the passing game big time with Henne and Orton posting career days against our defense."

Now it is "Wildcat or not" and "some relative success". They ran for less than 3.5 ypc with no TDs. I suppose that is relative success as compared to falling down and fumbling. Again, what are you expecting?

And, as you said, the team knew what was coming and still couldn't stop one of the worst passing offenses in the NFL in 2009. How exactly does that help your point that the Pats were a top five defense last season?

Never said they were a top 5 defense last year. In fact, have said that I don't believe they were, but wouldn't toss them out of the conversation against the run. I contend that the run defense was good enough to win every week but the pass defense was not. Since this is a thread on the run defense, I am more positive than if this were a thread on the pass defense.

If you couldn't see how using the Wild Horse right off the bat put the defense on their heels and made them ultra-susceptible to Orton and the pass, I don't know what to tell you.

Tell me how. They use the formation on the first drive, had some success, missed a field goal, fell behind by 10 points and barely went back to the formation the rest of the game. I think the burden is on you, not me missing something obvious.

I would think that you would take that olive branch since, again, Orton torching the defense without any conceivable help from the running game would all but destroy the point that you're trying to make that the 2009 Pats were a top five defense. At this point, you're doing ten times more damage to your argument than I am.

This is a thread on the run defense. Still haven't contended they were top 5. Not planning on doing it either.

For one, we don't have two home games in a row.

Only have back-to-back roadies once.

For another, our opponent's win-loss total is 136-120.

Last year.

Our schedule features us playing the AFC North winner,

Like we do just about every year. Even last year, the #2 Ravens were a better team than the #1.

followed division rival and AFC runner up Jets, followed by the Bills and Dolphins in Miami (where they always give us problems),

Same as every year.

followed the Ravens who slaughtered us in the opening round without use of a quarterback,

Played them last year too.

followed by the NFC runner up and AFC North Champion Vikings,

With a missing or hobbled Favre

followed by the Browns and Steelers,

That is a good thing

followed by the AFC South Champion and Super Bowl runner-up Colts (who have owned us for the last few seasons),

Just like we do every year, except this year at home, which is a good thing

then Lions, Jets, Bears, Packers, Bills, and Dolphins.

With the Jets, Packers and Fins at home.

I don't see that schedule as amazingly difficult. The SD trip is likely to be a pain but the rest is seriously workable. Getting the West divisions makes for easier opponents but more difficult traveling. Other than that, the schedule doesn't seem too bad.