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I have a hard time putting Atlanta at number 1. Their games vs Oakland and Carolina pretty much came down to the last play. You think Eli has clutch luck? Watch the end of those two games.
Every team will experience unexpected close games, it's why the phrase 'Any Given Sunday' exists. The Pats have already encountered this with the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Jets. The difference is that the Pats lost 2 of 3 of those games, while the Falcons still managed to pull them out. To put down Atlanta because they aren't winning in landslides is like those people who were hating on the 2003 Pats because they were squeeking by opponents (good and bad).