What the Pats want for Mallet according to

[supafly]

I don't know, maybe because he is an NFL quarterback and gets paid as one. He won the job as Brady's back-up and has kept it, under Belichick that is not an easy task, you are either continuing to improve and show you are ready to play or you are gone. Has he shown that he is a successful starting quarterback-no, but then again he hasn't had the chance, and I am not sure how someone can argue that Mallett isn't worth a second but Johnny Manziel and Co. are worth firsts, it's not like they have shown they can play in the NFL either.


Would Bill O'Brien decide that using the #33 for Mallett makes more sense than drafting a QB 1st overall, i have no idea, but I wouldn't be at all surprised by it as he may well decide that Mallett can step right in and run his system. On the other hand his experience with Mallett may be just the opposite and he may have seen enough to believe Mallett isn't the answer, we have no way of knowing, however we will know much more by the time the draft rolls around and the question will be answered one way or the other.

While all of your thoughts are quite reasonable, the main differences between choosing someone in the draft and instead choosing to spend the pick on Ryan Mallett are:

--age (you'll get your franchise QB at about 3-4 yrs younger, maybe even more for guys like Manziel, where it'd be 4-5 yrs younger. That's a pretty big difference)

--price (you'll get your new franchise QB for peanuts, whereas you'll have to not only give up a 2nd round pick for Mallett, but also have to then immediately sign him to a brand new, long-term deal where the price will have to be somewhat competitive with lower tiered starters in the league. No one in their right mind is going to part with a 2nd round pick without securing his services beyond 2014. Good luck choosing to pay him anywhere between 4-5m and possibly even up to 10-12m, instead of being able to take someone like Manziel for peanuts on the dollar on a cheap, rookie deal)

These are some pretty big differences right here, not that I'm suggesting that he wouldn't pique some interest, because I think he will--at least one some level. I just think that it's a no-brainer that you'd rather have the younger, cheaper option; especially since Mallett has looked downright poor in the limited preseason opportunities that he's received. If a guy who has proven himself at the NFL level like Kirk Cousins is going to command a 2nd rounder, then a guy like Ryan Mallett shouldn't be commanding more than a 4th--possibly a 3rd to some sucker who is insanely desperate. Of course with Cousins, you don't have to worry about a new contract either, as he's not a free agent until 2016, so you'd have some time to make a sufficient determination. Either way, most experts feel that it's highly unlikely that even Cousins would warrant parting with a 2nd rounder, and that he's pretty much a "high quality backup," as opposed to a sure-fire starter. I'm not sure what that says about Ryan Mallett's hopes.

We constantly heard about some mythological connection to Mike Lombardi, who claimed on NFLN's Thursday night game that "either one of Hoyer or Mallett have the potential to someday be starters in this league." That's not exactly half of what many make it out to be when they claim that "Lombardi said that he wants Ryan Mallett." Obviously, he chose Brian Hoyer, so that point was made moot anyway. Now we're going to sit back and pin our hopes on some fan-created connection to Bill O'Brien and the super high pressure situation that he's in to succeed right off the bat. We honestly have absolutely no idea whether or not O'Brien feels that Mallett has potential to be an instant starter over time, or whether he feels that he flat out sucks. All of this speculation is nothing more than fan created hope.

If I am Bill O'Brien and the whole city of HOU is looking at me to step in and succeed in possibly my one and only shot at being an NFL head coach, I am probably not going to select Ryan Mallett as my choice to make a huge gamble on right off the bat. I would probably select a franchise QB in the draft, along with a journeyman backup who I wouldn't have to part with a 2nd + an expensive contract for. On top of that, I'd also have at least one of the QBs who are already there like Keenum as a 2nd/3rd QB on the depth chart as well. I think I'd have all of my bases covered, without taking any stupid gambles or risks, which would exaggerate my tendency to be questioned for making the wrong choice(s) right off the bat.

 

[manxman2601]

I have a question for you all – Is there a player slated to be available at #33 that offers the Texans more upside than Ryan Mallet could offer them?

Just remember that this supposedly the deepest draft in a decade. They should be thinking about getting a first rounder type player at 33.

I'd suggest that:

Clowney
ASJ/Amaro ( BOB loves his tight ends)
Mettenberger/McCarron/Garoppolo

probably works out pretty well.

 

[manxman2601]

Forgive me if this has already been said, but considering Clowney is sitting there for the #1 pick and this is not a stellar bunch of draft QBs, should BOB, a man very familiar with Mallett, pass on him then that will kill off his trade value. If I'm a GM and BOB doesn't show interest in Mallett to be a starter, then I have to wonder why I should. And if he's not certain to be a starter, I'm not giving up a 2nd for him.

 

[manxman2601]

While all of your thoughts are quite reasonable, the main differences between choosing someone in the draft and instead choosing to spend the pick on Ryan Mallett are:

--age (you'll get your franchise QB at about 3-4 yrs younger, maybe even more for guys like Manziel, where it'd be 4-5 yrs younger. That's a pretty big difference)

--price (you'll get your new franchise QB for peanuts, whereas you'll have to not only give up a 2nd round pick for Mallett, but also have to then immediately sign him to a brand new, long-term deal where the price will have to be somewhat competitive with lower tiered starters in the league. No one in their right mind is going to part with a 2nd round pick without securing his services beyond 2014. Good luck choosing to pay him anywhere between 4-5m and possibly even up to 10-12m, instead of being able to take someone like Manziel for peanuts on the dollar on a cheap, rookie deal)

These are some pretty big differences right here, not that I'm suggesting that he wouldn't pique some interest, because I think he will--at least one some level. I just think that it's a no-brainer that you'd rather have the younger, cheaper option; especially since Mallett has looked downright poor in the limited preseason opportunities that he's received. If a guy who has proven himself at the NFL level like Kirk Cousins is going to command a 2nd rounder, then a guy like Ryan Mallett shouldn't be commanding more than a 4th--possibly a 3rd to some sucker who is insanely desperate. Of course with Cousins, you don't have to worry about a new contract either, as he's not a free agent until 2016, so you'd have some time to make a sufficient determination. Either way, most experts feel that it's highly unlikely that even Cousins would warrant parting with a 2nd rounder, and that he's pretty much a "high quality backup," as opposed to a sure-fire starter. I'm not sure what that says about Ryan Mallett's hopes.

We constantly heard about some mythological connection to Mike Lombardi, who claimed on NFLN's Thursday night game that "either one of Hoyer or Mallett have the potential to someday be starters in this league." That's not exactly half of what many make it out to be when they claim that "Lombardi said that he wants Ryan Mallett." Obviously, he chose Brian Hoyer, so that point was made moot anyway. Now we're going to sit back and pin our hopes on some fan-created connection to Bill O'Brien and the super high pressure situation that he's in to succeed right off the bat. We honestly have absolutely no idea whether or not O'Brien feels that Mallett has potential to be an instant starter over time, or whether he feels that he flat out sucks. All of this speculation is nothing more than fan created hope.

If I am Bill O'Brien and the whole city of HOU is looking at me to step in and succeed in possibly my one and only shot at being an NFL head coach, I am probably not going to select Ryan Mallett as my choice to make a huge gamble on right off the bat. I would probably select a franchise QB in the draft, along with a journeyman backup who I wouldn't have to part with a 2nd + an expensive contract for. On top of that, I'd also have at least one of the QBs who are already there like Keenum as a 2nd/3rd QB on the depth chart as well. I think I'd have all of my bases covered, without taking any stupid gambles or risks, which would exaggerate my tendency to be questioned for making the wrong choice(s) right off the bat.

The point with Lombardi is that he said Mallett was the best QB in the draft the year he was drafted and was a believer in Mallett as a first round pick. And that was before the draft.

 

[AzorianPats]

If we "reportedly" want a second for Mallet, I can see BB trying to get Houston pick in the third, which is pretty much a second rounder.

As a Pats fan, I'd be ecstatic if we traded Mallet for the 33rd pick, but if your Houston, how the hell does that make any sense? There is absolutely no tape on Mallet running an NFL offense. BOB might have loved him coming out of college, but he's a new coach in a new city, that's a QB away from contending. Not to mention how can you sell that to a fan base? If I was a Texan fan and that trade were to happen, I'd be rip ****.

 

[DarrylS]

I don't know, maybe because he is an NFL quarterback and gets paid as one. He won the job as Brady's back-up and has kept it, under Belichick that is not an easy task, you are either continuing to improve and show you are ready to play or you are gone. Has he shown that he is a successful starting quarterback-no, but then again he hasn't had the chance, and I am not sure how someone can argue that Mallett isn't worth a second but Johnny Manziel and Co. are worth firsts, it's not like they have shown they can play in the NFL either.

Would Bill O'Brien decide that using the #33 for Mallett makes more sense than drafting a QB 1st overall, i have no idea, but I wouldn't be at all surprised by it as he may well decide that Mallett can step right in and run his system. On the other hand his experience with Mallett may be just the opposite and he may have seen enough to believe Mallett isn't the answer, we have no way of knowing, however we will know much more by the time the draft rolls around and the question will be answered one way or the other.

Mallett has been in the NFL for three seasons so far and has not(fortunately) played in a game to show that he can compete on this level... we have seen some evidence in the preseason, however what my eyeball test was not all the convincing...

After that it is a whole bunch of guesswork.... you are right we have no way of knowing. The reality is that Houston is not that far away from being respectable again, a few pieces here and there could turn that franchise around.

My guess is O'Brien will draft a qb #1 that he can mold to what he wants..

Perhaps a 4th rounder may be more appropo, and in the logic of this board that would really be a 3rd....

 

[dhamz]

So both the Patriots and Redskins aren't telling teams 2 1/2 months before the draft they will accept very little for their back-up QBs? They have started by asking for top value?

This is shocking.

It is meaningless at this point. It could be a negotiation starter for a player they intend to try and deal or it could be a sign that both are content to hold onto their back-up QBs unless someone is willing to overpay for them. And no one outside the organizations knows at this point.

 

[Brady6]

I have to confess that this mentality baffles me. Does anyone think that Tom Brady is taking 2 seconds of his valuable time to help coach up Ryan Mallett? Oh, sure, when the media asks about it, they are the best of friends helping each other out left and right. But in reality, I doubt anything even remotely like that is going on.

Brady is too busy worrying about the Denver, NY, Miami, etc, defense than coaching the backup. Quite honestly, I don't want my starting QB to worry about the backup. I want him worried about the next game.

“Ryan you suck, do not talk to me”

 

[Don_the_patfan]

Here's a scenario, assuming BOB likes Mallett enough to offer value:

• Texans want Clowney but decide that they can't go into 2014 with their current QB roster
  
• Texans offer to swap positions in round 2 and 3 in exchange for Mallett (The trade chart equivalent of trading pick #47 to the Patriots)
  
• Texans get Clowney and Mallett, and keep all their picks, while the Patriots move up into position to get both the TE and DL in the top 33, and they'd be in great position to grab an interio OL at the top of round 3
  
• Texans get one year tryout with Mallett and can sell their fans on having the ability to draft a QB in a better year for them (2015), if needed

Ecstatic is the word that would come to mind for me as a Patriots fan, and it doesn't screw over the Texans in the deal.

Hard to disagree with your points here. It makes sense for all sides. I would be happy as well. Although if that happens look for the pats to trade back and acquire more picks.

 

[DW Toys]

I have a question for you all – Is there a player slated to be available at #33 that offers the Texans more upside than Ryan Mallet could offer them?

Good post. Absolutely correct.
DW Toys

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Mallett has been in the NFL for three seasons so far and has not(fortunately) played in a game to show that he can compete on this level... we have seen some evidence in the preseason, however what my eyeball test was not all the convincing...

But how much does that say about his ability to complete passes to, say, Andre Johnson?

 

[OhExaulted1]

While all of your thoughts are quite reasonable, the main differences between choosing someone in the draft and instead choosing to spend the pick on Ryan Mallett are:

--age (you'll get your franchise QB at about 3-4 yrs younger, maybe even more for guys like Manziel, where it'd be 4-5 yrs younger. That's a pretty big difference)

--price (you'll get your new franchise QB for peanuts, whereas you'll have to not only give up a 2nd round pick for Mallett, but also have to then immediately sign him to a brand new, long-term deal where the price will have to be somewhat competitive with lower tiered starters in the league. No one in their right mind is going to part with a 2nd round pick without securing his services beyond 2014. Good luck choosing to pay him anywhere between 4-5m and possibly even up to 10-12m, instead of being able to take someone like Manziel for peanuts on the dollar on a cheap, rookie deal)

Good points supa, although everyone has seemed to overlook the elephant in the room. You see, Houston has 3 QB's already under contract:
TJ Yates (691K salary, 46K if cut)
Casey Keenum (495K salary, no hit)
and this Matt Schaub fella (14.125 mil 2014 salary, signed thru 2016, 10.5 mil cap hit if cut) Think Herenandez' cap hit is constrictive?

If I am Bill O'Brien and the whole city of HOU is looking at me to step in and succeed in possibly my one and only shot at being an NFL head coach, I am probably not going to select Ryan Mallett as my choice to make a huge gamble on right off the bat. I would probably select a franchise QB in the draft, along with a journeyman backup who I wouldn't have to part with a 2nd + an expensive contract for. On top of that, I'd also have at least one of the QBs who are already there like Keenum as a 2nd/3rd QB on the depth chart as well. I think I'd have all of my bases covered, without taking any stupid gambles or risks, which would exaggerate my tendency to be questioned for making the wrong choice(s) right off the bat.

I think before Houston can really entertain the possibility of trading for Mallet or taking a QB #1 or wherever, they may want to find a dance partner for what would amount to a very expensive lame duck QB. We've seen this before, although under very different circumstances. Thank you Drew for being a stand up dude and that's why he deserved the Patriot HOF induction. I don't see a similar scenario being so pleasant in Texas. If I'm Bill O'Brien I'm looking for a way to get pick-six Schaub playing elsewhere before I do anything.

 

[The Scrizz]

Setting the price for a second round pick who has never played a meaningful or any NFL game is delusional or wishful thinking.

What evidence does anyone have that he is actually an NFL quarterback??

The fact the Pats carried him as their only backup QB tells me Belichick considers him an NFL QB.

 

[strngplyr]

The fact the Pats carried him as their only backup QB tells me Belichick considers him an NFL QB.

He could just know that if Brady goes down the season is over anyways and simply needs a cheap body to finish the game, knowing the system is just a convenience.

(Yes, i'm just playing devils advocate, i also agree with the majority thinking Mallet has no value to anyone but us, it's all media driven.)

 

[Danger Zone]

The fact the Pats carried him as their only backup QB tells me Belichick considers him an NFL QB.

Just as he carried a jaw-dropping FOUR quarterbacks for Brady's rookie year.

 

[BradyFTW!]

While all of your thoughts are quite reasonable, the main differences between choosing someone in the draft and instead choosing to spend the pick on Ryan Mallett are:

--age (you'll get your franchise QB at about 3-4 yrs younger, maybe even more for guys like Manziel, where it'd be 4-5 yrs younger. That's a pretty big difference)

--price (you'll get your new franchise QB for peanuts, whereas you'll have to not only give up a 2nd round pick for Mallett, but also have to then immediately sign him to a brand new, long-term deal where the price will have to be somewhat competitive with lower tiered starters in the league. No one in their right mind is going to part with a 2nd round pick without securing his services beyond 2014. Good luck choosing to pay him anywhere between 4-5m and possibly even up to 10-12m, instead of being able to take someone like Manziel for peanuts on the dollar on a cheap, rookie deal)

These are some pretty big differences right here, not that I'm suggesting that he wouldn't pique some interest, because I think he will--at least one some level. I just think that it's a no-brainer that you'd rather have the younger, cheaper option; especially since Mallett has looked downright poor in the limited preseason opportunities that he's received. If a guy who has proven himself at the NFL level like Kirk Cousins is going to command a 2nd rounder, then a guy like Ryan Mallett shouldn't be commanding more than a 4th--possibly a 3rd to some sucker who is insanely desperate. Of course with Cousins, you don't have to worry about a new contract either, as he's not a free agent until 2016, so you'd have some time to make a sufficient determination. Either way, most experts feel that it's highly unlikely that even Cousins would warrant parting with a 2nd rounder, and that he's pretty much a "high quality backup," as opposed to a sure-fire starter. I'm not sure what that says about Ryan Mallett's hopes.

We constantly heard about some mythological connection to Mike Lombardi, who claimed on NFLN's Thursday night game that "either one of Hoyer or Mallett have the potential to someday be starters in this league." That's not exactly half of what many make it out to be when they claim that "Lombardi said that he wants Ryan Mallett." Obviously, he chose Brian Hoyer, so that point was made moot anyway. Now we're going to sit back and pin our hopes on some fan-created connection to Bill O'Brien and the super high pressure situation that he's in to succeed right off the bat. We honestly have absolutely no idea whether or not O'Brien feels that Mallett has potential to be an instant starter over time, or whether he feels that he flat out sucks. All of this speculation is nothing more than fan created hope.

If I am Bill O'Brien and the whole city of HOU is looking at me to step in and succeed in possibly my one and only shot at being an NFL head coach, I am probably not going to select Ryan Mallett as my choice to make a huge gamble on right off the bat. I would probably select a franchise QB in the draft, along with a journeyman backup who I wouldn't have to part with a 2nd + an expensive contract for. On top of that, I'd also have at least one of the QBs who are already there like Keenum as a 2nd/3rd QB on the depth chart as well. I think I'd have all of my bases covered, without taking any stupid gambles or risks, which would exaggerate my tendency to be questioned for making the wrong choice(s) right off the bat.

The point that you brought up with price is an interesting one, and I agree that it's the primary issue that's driving down Mallett's trade value. A large part of the reason why draft picks are so great is because they allow you to lock in talented players for 4-5 years at extremely favorable costs. Trading away a pick for a player who will then need a new contract goes a long way toward messing up a team's salary structure.

That said, it will be interesting to see what Mallett can actually command on his next contract. I think it goes without saying that:

• Nobody will trade for Mallett until he has first agreed to an extension

• Therefore, if he's not willing to accept a contract that a potential trading partner finds worthwhile, he won't be traded.

• Given that he has yet to take a meaningful snap in the NFL, even the few teams that might want to trade for him probably won't be willing to give him much.

Which means... well, what exactly? If you're Mallett, and Bill O'Brien asks if you're willing to accept a four year contract that would make you one of the lowest paid starters in the NFL, do you agree to that deal? On one hand, if you don't, Brady gets hurt, and then you play well, you can go into FA and make way more money.

OTOH, if you turn down the offer, don't get traded, and spend another year sitting behind Brady, you're hitting UFA with no NFL track record. There'll be maybe a couple of places where you'll have an opportunity to compete for a starting job, but in all likelihood none of them will be as good a situation as what you could have had in Houston. Will there be enough interested teams to drive your price significantly up from what you could have had on the contract you received after the trade?

If I'm Mallett, and Bill O'Brien tells me that he has a plan for me and wants to trade for me and plug me into an offense featuring Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, and Duane Brown, I'd have to think long and hard about that. If that means playing out another four year contract at $4M APY with some signficant, earnable performance incentives, there's a case to be made that that's a legitimately good opportunity to go out, establish myself as an upper echelon QB, and hit free agency again before I turn 30, giving me a shot at a mega contract while I'm younger than Cutler and Romo were when they got theirs.

I have no idea if it will turn out that way, but if O'Brien has real confidence that Mallett can be his guy, then I could see a scenario like that working out well for everyone involved. As you pointed out, O'Brien would be taking a real risk, but it would allow him to get 'his' QB for less money over the next four years than he'd pay the #1 overall pick, plus he would still have the #1 pick to either use or trade down for a bunch of picks.

Mallett would probably be the loser in all of this, since he'd basically end up playing out 7 years on essentially rookie wage scale salaries, but given where he stands today that a reasonably compelling case can be made that it's a good path forward for him.

 

[supafly]

The point that you brought up with price is an interesting one, and I agree that it's the primary issue that's driving down Mallett's trade value. A large part of the reason why draft picks are so great is because they allow you to lock in talented players for 4-5 years at extremely favorable costs. Trading away a pick for a player who will then need a new contract goes a long way toward messing up a team's salary structure.

That said, it will be interesting to see what Mallett can actually command on his next contract. I think it goes without saying that:

• Nobody will trade for Mallett until he has first agreed to an extension

• Therefore, if he's not willing to accept a contract that a potential trading partner finds worthwhile, he won't be traded.

• Given that he has yet to take a meaningful snap in the NFL, even the few teams that might want to trade for him probably won't be willing to give him much.

Which means... well, what exactly? If you're Mallett, and Bill O'Brien asks if you're willing to accept a four year contract that would make you one of the lowest paid starters in the NFL, do you agree to that deal? On one hand, if you don't, Brady gets hurt, and then you play well, you can go into FA and make way more money.

OTOH, if you turn down the offer, don't get traded, and spend another year sitting behind Brady, you're hitting UFA with no NFL track record. There'll be maybe a couple of places where you'll have an opportunity to compete for a starting job, but in all likelihood none of them will be as good a situation as what you could have had in Houston. Will there be enough interested teams to drive your price significantly up from what you could have had on the contract you received after the trade?

If I'm Mallett, and Bill O'Brien tells me that he has a plan for me and wants to trade for me and plug me into an offense featuring Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Owen Daniels, Arian Foster, and Duane Brown, I'd have to think long and hard about that. If that means playing out another four year contract at $4M APY with some signficant, earnable performance incentives, there's a case to be made that that's a legitimately good opportunity to go out, establish myself as an upper echelon QB, and hit free agency again before I turn 30, giving me a shot at a mega contract while I'm younger than Cutler and Romo were when they got theirs.

I have no idea if it will turn out that way, but if O'Brien has real confidence that Mallett can be his guy, then I could see a scenario like that working out well for everyone involved. As you pointed out, O'Brien would be taking a real risk, but it would allow him to get 'his' QB for less money over the next four years than he'd pay the #1 overall pick, plus he would still have the #1 pick to either use or trade down for a bunch of picks.

Mallett would probably be the loser in all of this, since he'd basically end up playing out 7 years on essentially rookie wage scale salaries, but given where he stands today that a reasonably compelling case can be made that it's a good path forward for him.

Good stuff, buddy.

A valid look at some of the positives for Mallett, should he want to immediately compete for a starting job somewhere.

I'm still a bit leery, but one never knows about these kinds of things.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Good stuff, buddy.

A valid look at some of the positives for Mallett, should he want to immediately compete for a starting job somewhere.

I'm still a bit leery, but one never knows about these kinds of things.

Sounds like we agree, because I don't think it'll happen either. A second round pick is a significant investment for a guy who hasn't taken a meaningful NFL snap. To be worth it, Mallett would have to accept a new contract that basically paid him like a rookie, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he'd rather wait another year, hit the open market, and see if he can't create a bidding war between a bunch of teams that are hopeless at QB.

 

[Deus Irae]

Sounds like we agree, because I don't think it'll happen either. A second round pick is a significant investment for a guy who hasn't taken a meaningful NFL snap. To be worth it, Mallett would have to accept a new contract that basically paid him like a rookie, and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he'd rather wait another year, hit the open market, and see if he can't create a bidding war between a bunch of teams that are hopeless at QB.

Why couldn't Mallett just sign a one year extension that included incentives that could bump him up to low end starter money? That would certainly be fair compensation under the circumstances.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Why couldn't Mallett just sign a one year extension that included incentives that could bump him up to low end starter money? That would certainly be fair compensation under the circumstances.

Because I'm assuming that the Texans wouldn't want to give up a second round pick for a guy who would be an UFA in two seasons. Could be wrong, but I would think that having their QB at an advantageous cost would be an important part of any potential trade, since the alternative is drafting someone, which would give them 4-5 years of control at a low cost.