What really happened in the second round?

[rookBoston]

It wasn’t just draftnik scounts, Wes Bunting rated him low and even the NFL had a bad grade on him. The players around Wilson had grades in the low 80s and then you see Wilson and 48 and change.

To me, the question isn’t whether he’d have been there in the 5th, no one knows, but is there a better way to spend that pick? I would be thrilled if we got Lavonte David or Kendall Reyes, but even if we traded the pick back to beef up our lines, especially in the middle, I think we’d have been better off.

Yeah, that's fine if you're drafting an imaginary team. But who do you plan to play at FS if you're GM of the New England Patriots, and you decide to spend the pick so Kendall Reyes can sub in when Deaderick needs a rest?

Is Sterling Moore your solution? That gives you more confidence? There are not a lot of practical options, if you don't fill the FS need at 48. You can either spend the pick on a S or you sign Yeremiah Bell or you can play Mathew Slater at the spot, again.

I like what I've been reading about Wilson. He's was a captain, he's a film rat, he has positional versatility, he's a reliable tackler. There are some pretty good reasons to think he can play the position and fill the gap. So, what are we upset about, again? That Kiper didn't have his draft day notes prepped?

 

[mayoclinic]

I like what I've been reading about Wilson. He's was a captain, he's a film rat, he has positional versatility, he's a reliable tackler. There are some pretty good reasons to think he can play the position and fill the gap. So, what are we upset about, again? That Kiper didn't have his draft day notes prepped?

My only regret is that we didn't get Lavonte David.

I thought BB could have been a bit more aggressive with the safety position in FA. I thought we wasted time with Laron Landry and ignored some other options. One guy who slid under the radar who I thought would have provided very similar skills to Tavon Wilson was former Oklahoma DB Reggie Smith. Carolina signed him away form the 49ers (who had a very good secondary last year) for chump change (1 year deal worth $765K). I would have preferred that the Pats sign a guy like Smith and then draft Lavonte David at 48, who was BPA by far IMHO.

I have nothing against Wilson, and think he will be solid. But I think David will be EXTRAORDINARY. And for me, you never pass on a superior player because of need.

 

[Water Boy]

In the realm of speculation, though: since the draft I've been looking back over the safety options. If you wanted an FS type -- preferably with experience at multiple DB positions, with the right intangibles to become a leader of your secondary -- your options were very, very few.

Barron and Smith were unreachable.
Martin was injured.
Johnson and Iloka had attitude problems.
Trenton Robinson has the size of Kyle Arrington (5'9" 195).
Hardin had a majory injury history, and had only played CB.

Who's left? Taylor, who had only played SS; maybe DeQuan Menzie, who had only played CB; and Tavon Wilson.

I think its clear that Wilson's draft value was highly inflated by the lack of depth at FS in this draft class. I'll concede as many speculate that Wilson may have been taken prior to the Patriots next pick after 48, but I think its fair to call this pick a reach.

 

[Off The Grid]

OK, let's look at the evidence.

On one side we have "the scouting reports you read" saying Wilson is "no good at all." Presumably these weren't NFL scouting reports per se, but opinions from outside draftniks.

On the other side, we have one of the NFL's most extensive scouting operations, with a track record of above-average drafting, spending a second-round pick on Wilson.

Do we know from these two conflicting pieces of info how all 31 other teams viewed Wilson? Nope. Is what you read on websites overwhelming evidence, while the one actual NFL scouting analysis we know about means "NOTHING"? Of course not. We don't know.

Here's the rub: this isn't a game of averages.

Let's give the web draftniks the benefit of the doubt and say that they pegged the dominant NFL sentiment on Wilson. So most teams saw Wilson as a 5th-6th round prospect. Some thought he was a little better than that; some a little worse; a few much better (we know of at least one in that category, right?); a few much worse. Let's say it broke down like this:

VALUATION : #OF TEAMS
2nd : 3
3rd-4th : 5
5th-6th : 16
7th-UDFA : 5
no interest : 3

That makes him, overall, exactly a 5th-6th round prospect, just as the draftniks claimed. Go draftniks! Yet there's very little chance that he'd last until the 5th-6th rounds.

Do you remember a couple of years ago how there were reports that teams were all over the map on Brandon Spikes? Given his physical makeup and style of play, Some had him as a solid 2nd rounder, many others as a day-3 guy, and some as undraftable. To the Patriots, he was worth the 2nd round pick, even if dozens of other teams disagreed.

Really good stuff, here.

I'd call that little visual a simple but extremely effective representation of reality.

And Brandon Spikes is a perfect example of why the average Draft Grade ultimately means very little.

 

[Off The Grid]

Ivan --- disagree, it is a projection of the team with the second highest value on a player. Drafting is full of winners curses where the team that drafts a player usually has a grade/value on that player that is higher than league average.

The question being debated is what was the 2nd highest value in the NFL on Wilson, not the first highest value which the Patriots revealed as equal to the 48th pick in the draft.

For the WIN, Brother Fester!! :rocker:

All Brother Snake was originally saying was that we don't know...and he's obviously correct.

 

[Off The Grid]

It should also be noted that even if TEN teams give a guy a 2nd Round grade, it doesn't necessarily mean he's gonna be drafted in the 2nd Round...or even the 3rd.

Why? Simple: Those ten teams may have two or three other guys that they give higher grades to.

Therefore it's quite possible for the theoretical scenario that Sister Patricia sketched out to be a very accurate representation of reality ~ and, frankly, it feels like it is, doesn't it?? ~ yet for all 3 teams giving him a 2nd Round grade to let'm sink, because they liked somebody else even more.

Personally, I detested the Pick.

But it would be presumptuous to say that I know it was a bad Pick.

Bill The Mad (Genius) has made many mistakes, and this may well prove to be another.

And it's perfectly reasonable to criticize this move:

It's the First Prerogative of every fan.

But he is the very best.

And he most certainly has earned the benefit of the doubt.

 

[Off The Grid]

I rescind my earlier comment!!

 

[Snake Eyes]

Yeah, that's fine if you're drafting an imaginary team. But who do you plan to play at FS if you're GM of the New England Patriots, and you decide to spend the pick so Kendall Reyes can sub in when Deaderick needs a rest?

Is Sterling Moore your solution? That gives you more confidence? There are not a lot of practical options, if you don't fill the FS need at 48. You can either spend the pick on a S or you sign Yeremiah Bell or you can play Mathew Slater at the spot, again.

I like what I've been reading about Wilson. He's was a captain, he's a film rat, he has positional versatility, he's a reliable tackler. There are some pretty good reasons to think he can play the position and fill the gap. So, what are we upset about, again? That Kiper didn't have his draft day notes prepped?

What's going to happen to TFB if one of our tackles goes down? What happens to our defense if Wilfork goes down?

FS is a need but I think there are bigger needs, that's why I'm fine with risking not drafting Wilson until later to address a bigger area of concern at #48. IF Wilson is those things you mentioned, great, I certainly want a stronger secondary, I just hope you're prepared to stand by your words if he turns out not to be.

 

[Avenger]

What's going to happen to TFB if one of our tackles goes down? What happens to our defense if Wilfork goes down?

FS is a need but I think there are bigger needs, that's why I'm fine with risking not drafting Wilson until later to address a bigger area of concern at #48. IF Wilson is those things you mentioned, great, I certainly want a stronger secondary, I just hope you're prepared to stand by your words if he turns out not to be.

Safety was not only a big need it was our BIGGEST need.

 

[patchick]

What's going to happen to TFB if one of our tackles goes down? What happens to our defense if Wilfork goes down?

FS is a need but I think there are bigger needs, that's why I'm fine with risking not drafting Wilson until later to address a bigger area of concern at #48.

Obviously, losing one of your best, most critical players would hurt any team. But you feel that a 3rd or 4th OT is a bigger need than a starting free safety?

S was the one position on the team lacking a starter. On the rare occasions when they enter the draft in that state, the Patriots always move aggressively to fill it. (cf. Mankins, Logan.)

 

[ZoisKing]

Obviously, losing one of your best, most critical players would hurt any team. But you feel that a 3rd or 4th OT is a bigger need than a starting free safety?

S was the one position on the team lacking a starter. On the rare occasions when they enter the draft in that state, the Patriots always move aggressively to fill it. (cf. Mankins, Logan.)

Exactly. Our group of safeties was easily our weakest position group, and as you say lacked anyone of starting caliber with Chung out for an extended period of time.

I'd actually like to see if any other team had a worse safety group than ours. They played a huge role in the yardage we gave up.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Obviously, losing one of your best, most critical players would hurt any team. But you feel that a 3rd or 4th OT is a bigger need than a starting free safety?

S was the one position on the team lacking a starter. On the rare occasions when they enter the draft in that state, the Patriots always move aggressively to fill it. (cf. Mankins, Logan.)

Keep in mind that Vollmer was hurt most of last season and Cannon has barely played, IMO the depth at OT is very thin. Lacking a proper safety means the other team scores a lot, lacking in OT means TFB gets mauled.

Also, what makes you think Wilson is going to have the goods to be effective at the position? He's by no means a lock, I would go so far as to call that a reach. I don't know who said it but I think 'need is a terrible evaluator of talent', I'd rather take my chances that Wilson would be there later on and throw McCourty or Edelperson in at FS if I had to.

 

[rookBoston]

Keep in mind that Vollmer was hurt most of last season and Cannon has barely played, IMO the depth at OT is very thin. Lacking a proper safety means the other team scores a lot, lacking in OT means TFB gets mauled.

Also, what makes you think Wilson is going to have the goods to be effective at the position? He's by no means a lock, I would go so far as to call that a reach. I don't know who said it but I think 'need is a terrible evaluator of talent', I'd rather take my chances that Wilson would be there later on and throw McCourty or Edelperson in at FS if I had to.

We've lost Matt Light at LT, but we drafted his replacement last year in Solder. Vollmer has been solid. Cannon played at OT last year when he was hurt, and did well given he started the season on PUP. But, even imagining the worst, Gallery can play at OT, and apparently the coaching staff are high on Matt Kopa. So the depth chart is not anywhere near as empty as it is at S.

No question, it will be worth drafting some young studs on the OL in 2013, given that Koppen and Waters are both on the verge of retirement. But it's hard to say the need at OL is higher that S. There are players like McDonald that stepped in off the PS last year and did quite well on the OL. Not the case at S. Our best options were Edelman and Slater. Talk about desperation.

The only reason we have (today) to think that Wilson has a good shot at significant playing time is the fact that BB spent a 2nd round pick on him. And, no, that is not circular reasoning. It's just a measure of what BB the coach thinks of Wilson's toolkit. If he didn't think he had the potential to be a rookie contributor, he would not have met the criteria for being drafted in the 2nd round.

Let's just pause on judging Wilson, since we have no new info... and see how he does in TC.

 

[mayoclinic]

Keep in mind that Vollmer was hurt most of last season and Cannon has barely played, IMO the depth at OT is very thin. Lacking a proper safety means the other team scores a lot, lacking in OT means TFB gets mauled.

I see it quite differently. Cannon acquitted himself more than adequately given that he was coming off of chemotherapy and had no offseason or training camp. Both Solder and Vollmer have proven they can play either tackle position well. And the Pats signed Robert Gallery, who at the very least has proven to be a solid RT as well as a guard. Although Gallery struggled at LT early in his career, I wouldn't be surprised to see him do better under Scar's tutelate. But those 4 guys give the Pats a lot of depth and versatility at the position. That's not saying I wouldn't like a developmental OT, but the Pats already have several (Kyle Hix, Matt Kopa, possibly Markus Zusevics).

 

[patchick]

Keep in mind that Vollmer was hurt most of last season and Cannon has barely played, IMO the depth at OT is very thin. Lacking a proper safety means the other team scores a lot, lacking in OT means TFB gets mauled.

Also, what makes you think Wilson is going to have the goods to be effective at the position? He's by no means a lock

Well of course, I never count on ANY rookie to be an effective day-1 starter in the NFL. Doesn't that go for a tackle, too? If you're not ready to count on Cannon because he's a 2nd-year player who got a late start on his rookie year, why would you count on an actual rookie?

I would LOVE another quality OT. But I think we're a little spoiled from last year, when the Patriots boasted 3 legitimate starting-quality NFL tackles. How often does any team have that luxury?

What they had pre-draft was 2 quality tackles with extraordinary size and athleticism who could play either side, and two probably average RT backups in Cannon and Gallery. Thin, but still better than most teams.

At safety, it was one decent but oft-injured starter, one incoming vet whose ceiling is decent starter and floor is special teams, and a bunch of cornerbacks who might be able to play safety if pressed. Ouch.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would LOVE another quality OT. But I think we're a little spoiled from last year, when the Patriots boasted 3 legitimate starting-quality NFL tackles. How often does any team have that luxury?

What they had pre-draft was 2 quality tackles with extraordinary size and athleticism who could play either side, and two probably average RT backups in Cannon and Gallery. Thin, but still better than most teams.

I think you underestimate Gallery. He is much more than an "average RT backup", and he's started every game he's ever played in with one exception his rookie season. I'd take Gallery over Nick Kaczur circa 2005-2009 any day.

I also think there's a good chance you underestimate Marcus Cannon. though it's too early to be certain.

 

[patchick]

I think you underestimate Gallery. He is much more than an "average RT backup", and he's started every game he's ever played in with one exception his rookie season. I'd take Gallery over Nick Kaczur circa 2005-2009 any day.

I also think there's a good chance you underestimate Marcus Cannon. though it's too early to be certain.

Yep, I was trying to lean conservative for purposes of the post, but I'm optimistic on both. Whereas at safety, we would either have been counting on Gregory and bubkes, or moving McCourty or Dowling to safety and weakening the corner position. In fact, I'd say that the safety position WITH the high draft pick is less settled than the tackle position without.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yep, I was trying to lean conservative for purposes of the post, but I'm optimistic on both. Whereas at safety, we would either have been counting on Gregory and bubkes, or moving McCourty or Dowling to safety and weakening the corner position. In fact, I'd say that the safety position WITH the high draft pick is less settled than the tackle position without.

Regardless, we know that for whatever reason BB chose to address the safety position in the 2nd round and not address OT at all in the draft, or at least until FA (depending on whether you project Markus Zusevics to guard or tackle). We don't know if that's because he felt the need at safety was greater (likely), because he valued Tavon Wilson as a prospect better than the OTs who were available (possible), or any number of reasons. Although there was a run on OLs in the 37-44 range (Mitchell Schwartz, Amini Silatolu, Cordy Glenn, Jonathan Martin and Jeff Allen all went in an 8 pick range) there were a lot of prospects still on the board who were rated fairly highly by the "experts", and at least one guy who was considered a possible 1st round talent (Mike Adams). The Pats could have added a 3rd "1st round talent" in Adams and then gotten someone like Antonio Allen in the 7th round instead of Jeremy Ebert. The "experts" would have applauded, and so probably would the board. But BB chose to ignore the tackle position and "reach" for a late round/UDFA safety prospect.

It all comes down to whether BB is better at assessing the needs of the team and the available talent around which to build a team, or the "experts".

 

[NEGoldenAge]

I don't believe these "rumors" not reports--unless there can be a hyperlink added--on other teams giving Wilson a second-round grade.

I have heard from other people who have spoken to other franchises that Wilson was a sixth or seventh round pick.

I think what Belichick likes more than is customary is the grit and leadership, driving him up, way up, above other teams' chart.

The guy over three seasons had a grand total of three INTs. As a three-year starter.

The idea that anyone else but the Patriots had a second-round grade on Tavon Wilson is, until evidence comes in, malarkey.

For example, Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt, had 13 INTs in two seasons playing in the SEC for a team that can't compete. A real ball hawk. And he's almost as big--and he's as fast as Wilson.

How many players that are considered 6-7th picks by all teams get 7 team visits?

 

[Ivan]

No one is disputing that Wilson was selected in the 2nd round, the controversy is whether he had anything close to a 2nd Round grade. The scouting reports I read on Wilson state that he's not good at all, and that he'd be lucky to even make a roster, hopefully he'll become a HoF player but I wouldnt bet on it.

Obviously the Patriots had a 2nd round grade on him because they used a 2nd round pick on him, and citing people who had Iloka as a 2nd rounder when no team in the league thought he was anywhere near that doesn't bolster your weak attempt at a case. Wes Bunting is a draftnik and he had both mike Adams and Peter Konz as 1st rounders the week before the draft so I'll defer to the Patriots scouts and their ratings over just another talking head. The same people said the same things about Logan Mankins and Patriot draftniks were shrieking about how they could have gotten him at the end of the 2nd round when in fact the Patriots knew the 49ers had the same grade on him and later acknowledged they were going to use the very next pick on him. Had the patriots listened to the draftniks they would never have taken Tom Brady, Logan Mankins, Sebastien Vollmer, and wouldn't have signed Welker because the draftniks thought a 2nd was too valuable to give up for him, and many Patriot fans here said exactly the same thing and based it upon the same reasoning that you use here.

Bottom line, you think the general draftnik ratings are gospel and I think the Patriots are always going to go by their ratings, and the fact that Mel Kiper and Wes Bunting don't think as highly of them doesn't matter in the least to me, all that matters is how he plays.