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Perfect trade down scenario


Said it before, if the stud QB isn’t there at 3, trade back a couple spots and take McCarthy. Make sure you get another 2nd round pick at the top of the round in return. Take a left tackle and WR at the top of the second round. Three potential team changing players in the first two rounds.

If the Pat’s think they know something the rest of the NFL doesn’t, that Nix, Penix, Rattler or Pratt are a franchise QB then trade back a couple spots and take a tackle if the top guys are still sitting there.

People are getting to wrapped up in the #3 overall pick as being some can’t miss prospect as long as he’s taken right there. The third pick in 2021 was Trey Lance… how’d that work out?
 
Last time the Pats traded a #3 pick in the draft we got a #8 & #10 pick in return who turned out to be Chris Singleton and Ray Agnew. It’s ok if most of you are probably saying, “who”?? The #3 pick we traded was used by Seattle to select DL Cortez Kennedy who is now a proud member of the Hall of Fame. Let’s not have history repeat - take the QB you like best or whoever else you think would have the greatest positive impact. Also, not to put pressure on our de-facto GM, but I just read an article stating that while our owner is “encouraged” with E. Wolf *but* a GM “search” may still be coming. Sounds like making a decision that could set progress back another 3 - 4 years if the wrong choices are made is now part of his “job interview” while we’re all hoping for a “happy ending”! Is there an alternative universe where this makes any sense??

I remember Singleton/Agnew. But I make a #3 for #8/#11 trade any day and twice on Sundays.

That is like giving up Daniels for Dallas Turner/Brock Bowers....and probably using the extra ammo to trade back in the late 1st/early 2nd to get Penix Jr. or Nix..... that would give us a developmental QB behind Brissett...a good TE room...and a pass rusher to pair with Judon.... AND I like Daniels a lot (shrugs).

Yeah, Wolf being around for this draft was one of the reasons I was hesitant to move on from Belichick....we are using BB's scouts & front office personnel....there has not been much turnover. I think after the draft we'll clean house somewhat a bit like most incoming GMs do on other teams. I am OK with Wolf sticking around as long as he hits on his picks or makes good trades.
 
I remember Singleton/Agnew. But I make a #3 for #8/#11 trade any day and twice on Sundays.

That is like giving up Daniels for Dallas Turner/Brock Bowers....and probably using the extra ammo to trade back in the late 1st/early 2nd to get Penix Jr. or Nix..... that would give us a developmental QB behind Brissett...a good TE room...and a pass rusher to pair with Judon.... AND I like Daniels a lot (shrugs).

Yeah, Wolf being around for this draft was one of the reasons I was hesitant to move on from Belichick....we are using BB's scouts & front office personnel....there has not been much turnover. I think after the draft we'll clean house somewhat a bit like most incoming GMs do on other teams. I am OK with Wolf sticking around as long as he hits on his picks or makes good trades.
The cited example where #3 was traded for #8 and #11, as I recall was a notoriously bad draft year overall, while 2024 looks to be strong at our positions of need, particularly WR, into the 3rd round.
 
I'm getting sick of typing it, and I know others might be getting sick of reading it, but until we know what the offers actually are, it's a little silly to say categorically that we should or should not trade the pick. This OP makes sense to me, though. It makes all the sense in the world to discuss what we might do in response to various possible offers. The basic calculus here is not easy, but it's pretty simple: How sure you are of the QB's prospects' likely success, and how generous are the offers? Since we don't have the offers yet, we can't solve the equation, but we can speculate on hypothetical offers - plug in various values - and try to refine our sense of the various qb prospects' merits. If we had a solid team lacking only a decent QB, it would be easier just to pick the best QB and see what happens, but we are a long way from being in that state. It is my sense as well that none of the QB prospects we are likely to have a shot at (if any of them) falls into the "can't miss" category. When you add also that it is very unlikely this will be a quick-turnaround rebuild, that makes it less urgent that we get Our Guy this year necessarily, so an evaluation of next year's likely qb prospects is also in order. I think impatience is unwise in a complex situation in which there are still important unknowns.
 
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I remember Singleton/Agnew. But I make a #3 for #8/#11 trade any day and twice on Sundays.

That is like giving up Daniels for Dallas Turner/Brock Bowers....and probably using the extra ammo to trade back in the late 1st/early 2nd to get Penix Jr. or Nix..... that would give us a developmental QB behind Brissett...a good TE room...and a pass rusher to pair with Judon.... AND I like Daniels a lot (shrugs).

Yeah, Wolf being around for this draft was one of the reasons I was hesitant to move on from Belichick....we are using BB's scouts & front office personnel....there has not been much turnover. I think after the draft we'll clean house somewhat a bit like most incoming GMs do on other teams. I am OK with Wolf sticking around as long as he hits on his picks or makes good trades.
Perhaps you’re right about getting another #8 & #10 pick for our #3 however the only team with 2 first rounders to offer is the Vikings who could offer their #11 & #23 which isn’t such a “no brainer” to accept especially when the decision maker is still on his job interview..
 
Perhaps you’re right about getting another #8 & #10 pick for our #3 however the only team with 2 first rounders to offer is the Vikings who could offer their #11 & #23 which isn’t such a “no brainer” to accept especially when the decision maker is still on his job interview..

Agree. I just typed a post over at the Atheltic saying that if we were to trade #3 for #11/#23...I also want a 2025 1st round pick OR Justin Jefferson.

#11/#23 won't help us by themselves...we need more. If we did that...#23 is highly likely Bo Nix...which would be OK with me...but not as good as 3 firsts.
 
Agree. I just typed a post over at the Atheltic saying that if we were to trade #3 for #11/#23...I also want a 2025 1st round pick OR Justin Jefferson.

#11/#23 won't help us by themselves...we need more. If we did that...#23 is highly likely Bo Nix...which would be OK with me...but not as good as 3 firsts.
I’d be more than ”ok” with #11, #23, and Jefferson but bring one of the top 5 receivers in the league, he’s worth at least (2) #1 picks - no way Minn agreeing with that. A third #1 in 2025 may be doable but it’s gonna be tough passing on Maye or Daniels..
 
Agree. I just typed a post over at the Atheltic saying that if we were to trade #3 for #11/#23...I also want a 2025 1st round pick OR Justin Jefferson.

#11/#23 won't help us by themselves...we need more. If we did that...#23 is highly likely Bo Nix...which would be OK with me...but not as good as 3 firsts.
We should be able to get the 3 firsts, if that is what we want.

I think that we are then at the mercy of several other teams. I suspect that we would be drafting Nix at 11., and be thankful that there wer so many good non-QB's available for those picking 6-10. Your scenaraio (say McCarthy at 5) would have us waiting hoping that no one will trade up to 6 through 22 for a QB.
 
Everyone who suggests a trade down needs to go do some research i haven't seen or educate me, you either trade down and you're stuck without a quarterback and 2025 is a weak quarterback draft or you do the hipster suggestion of taking a 2nd tier QB when there's a 100% failure rate in the last 20 years doing that.

I want someone to show me where a team traded down, took a quarterback that same year and it worked out for them.

I get the idea of building the roster but this plan only works if you then get the QB the following year and 2025 looks like one of the weakest QB drafts in a long time, trading down to the 2nd tier of QBs is just a wasteland for teams who have done it.

It's a good way to turn your team into a 7-8 win team without a QB in 2 years and without a clear way to get one.
 
Everyone who suggests a trade down needs to go do some research i haven't seen or educate me, you either trade down and you're stuck without a quarterback and 2025 is a weak quarterback draft or you do the hipster suggestion of taking a 2nd tier QB when there's a 100% failure rate in the last 20 years doing that.

I want someone to show me where a team traded down, took a quarterback that same year and it worked out for them.

I get the idea of building the roster but this plan only works if you then get the QB the following year and 2025 looks like one of the weakest QB drafts in a long time, trading down to the 2nd tier of QBs is just a wasteland for teams who have done it.

It's a good way to turn your team into a 7-8 win team without a QB in 2 years and without a clear way to get one.
NOTE - I favor drafting of drafting Maye or Daniels with the #3 pick.
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Some would play game by trying to move down one or two picks. One is OK, if we are OK with 2 choices that are available. Tading down even one pick if we have only one choice is dangerous. AZ could easily trade with us then down to 6 where they
could get an excellent receiver.

If we don't like either of the top 4 that are available at 3, then we should trade down to as low as 12 and draft Nix or Penix.
 
Apparently Penix Jr. really had a wild pro day from an athleticism standpoint. Ran a 4.46 40 yard dash, 36.5" vertical. Throws looked great. He passed his medicals at the combine. I think he might be a good choice if they trade down. They sent Camren Williams and a few scouts there today while Wolf, Mayo, AVP and McAdoo were at Maye's pro day which was at the same time.
 
The Ringer's 2024 NFL Mock Draft

Love this trade down scenario. LoL
Pats get 11 and 23 from the Vikings then draft a cornerback and tight end.
BB is back baby!!
 
Apparently Penix Jr. really had a wild pro day from an athleticism standpoint. Ran a 4.46 40 yard dash, 36.5" vertical. Throws looked great. He passed his medicals at the combine. I think he might be a good choice if they trade down. They sent Camren Williams and a few scouts there today while Wolf, Mayo, AVP and McAdoo were at Maye's pro day which was at the same time.
 
We should be able to get the 3 firsts, if that is what we want.

I think that we are then at the mercy of several other teams. I suspect that we would be drafting Nix at 11., and be thankful that there wer so many good non-QB's available for those picking 6-10. Your scenaraio (say McCarthy at 5) would have us waiting hoping that no one will trade up to 6 through 22 for a QB.

Yep. That is why I want three firsts. If we trade the #3 pick for 3 firsts...we are risking not even drafting any of the 6 top guys (Pretty sure Williams, Daniels, and Maye are gone by pick #5. McCarthy gone by maybe #10 I think. Then Nix late first...and Penix early 2nd).

But with 3 firsts....I'd be happy with Joe Milton or Spencer Rattler in the QB room backing up Brisset. We can always come back next year with that extra 1st.
 
We should be able to get the 3 firsts, if that is what we want.

I think that we are then at the mercy of several other teams. I suspect that we would be drafting Nix at 11., and be thankful that there wer so many good non-QB's available for those picking 6-10. Your scenaraio (say McCarthy at 5) would have us waiting hoping that no one will trade up to 6 through 22 for a QB.
Happy Easter to those Cousins out there........ and to you mg.

I have mentioned this compelling trade down that could involve three QB starved Teams and having the Pats wind up with not only added Draft picks but player currency as well. This might be a controversial opinion to some on this forum, but the blueprint is not impossible. This is not a Madden dream.

Sorry about the quick breakfast today, but just oatmeal and bananas with a unique topping of Reese's Puffs and a couple a chocolate covered almonds with almond milk. plus vanilla tea and cranberry grape juice for this rainy windy day.

All of this for below on manuvering one Draft pick. ....the Third Pick of the 2024 Draft.

OK,
1-The Commanders may or may not take J.J. McCarthy at pick #2. Second theory might be Daniels at pick #2.

2_ That leaves the "leftovers" of Maye or McCarthy if he realistically drops a little lower. I ask a legitimate question; Looking at the tape and stats of a QB like Penix (or even Nix) is there that much ground to make up between those last two mentioned and the "Holy Three" plus One? Franchise QB's? Who is that judge please? Ivan is a pretty good judge but are we talking miles or inches?

3- At our #3 pick, the available information has the Vikes in search of a staring young QB (again the term "Franchise QB" is bandied about) They have procured an extra First Round pick for the distinct purpose of moving up the board. They must have had some conversation with perhaps the top five Teams to judge the value of this move, if at all possible to accomplish. I appreciate their aggressiveness. I would not be surprised if they have a deal in place (Pats?).

So our pick #3 to the Vikes for picks #11 and #23 plus an option of Justin Jefferson or their First Rounder in 2025 and a third Rounder in 2026. Let us assume that they want Maye. That is the going rate for top tier QB highway robbery.

4-But.......before we agree to deal with the Vikes, we place a call to the Cards and say would you have interest in picks #11 and Pick #23? Lock it in, Their #4 pick has a Draft Value of 1800 points. Pick #11 and pick #23 have a value of 2010 points so there should be a slight kicker. Because of the "QB tax", we will get held up a bit. I could see them offering pick #90 in the third Round as they have two picks in the third Round. #90 is worth 140 Draft Value Points. So the Pats lose about 70 points but that's the cost of doing QB business. We pick up a second pick in Round 3. Not bad.

5-We still have a shot at one of the "Holy Three" plus One ........but Sean Payton of the Broncos is one line #1. "We don't have a lot of Draft Trade currency but have some players that the past regime signed and I am not to shy to move them. For the Pats pick at #4 we will give you our pick #12 plus elite CB Patrick Surtain and a solid LT in Garrett Boles who can start for the Pats on day one?" Both are expiring contracts and one year for the Pats to decide on upping or not (at least sign Bolles to an extension right away. He's only 31). Imagine Gonzo and Surtain as our starting CB tandem?

Is taking Penix or Nix a tradgedy? Could they be Fanchise QBs?

So let us tally the results:
We get two immediate starters in Bolles and Surtain. We get a first Rounder in 2025 and a third Rounder in 2026. We get a third Rounder form AZ pick #90. We now have pick #12= I suggest QB Michael Penix who has a hell of a Pro Day and is faster than most of the "Holy Three" plus One. And arguably has the best arm. The Raiders wanted him at #13.

OK Cousins, these next couple versus are "wild-ass-guesses" for my binkies that I might suggest. This next part is not dependent on pick #3 but here goes. At pick #34 We call up Lynch of the Niners and offer to swap pick #34 in the second Round for their next to last second Round pick #63 plus offer the Vikes third Rounder we just got in 2026 for WR Brandon Aiyuk. Lynch's got a CAP and cash problem with Purdy coming up. He is stuck! He is thinking he might let Aiyuk play out his fifth year???....but then he walks. Lych gets a late 3 comp.

If we get a strong arm like Penix or Maye we now have an elite WR to build around those two QB and WR. Aiyuk is only 26. So we the Pats need to pay him more than Ridley for at least 4 years. Side bar-If we get Daniels at #3 he is buddies with Aiyuk. As a note Lynch can still get a top WR at #34 in this Draft to replace Aiyuk, and team and learn with Deebo. We do not have that luxury. WE MUST GET AN ELITE WR PRIOR TO THE DRAFT.

At pick #63 in the third either a OT or WR. Perhaps OT Patrick Paul from Houston to develop or OT Kiran Amegadjie from Yale. WR's could be Leggette form South Carolina, Coleman from Florida State or Ricky Pearsall (best route runner to help a rookie QB. also buddies with Daniels)

At Pick #68 I am going defense to help Barmore (he must be reupped before OTs) T'Vondre Sweat DT Texas. You can't teach huge and he is a pocket pusher.

Now at pick #90 I am double dipping with a second QB . I want Spencer Rattler South Carolina. He is the QB sleeper in this Draft. Allen type rocket arm. He should win the battle for #2 immediately.

At pick #103 in Round 4 I am thinking TE. How about Cade Stover form Ohio State? Very good in-line blocker and can catch some.

At pick #137 in the fifth Round how about FS Cole Bishop from Utah? 4.45 speed, Can cover and tackle.

At pick #180 in the siixth perhaps Issac Guerendo RB from Lousiville.....watch his tape. It's really good. Lets' quit screwing around and re-sign Zeke. He was decent and a good locker room guy.

At pick #193 Mikey Victor DB Alabama State. Has CB and Saftey value.

Finally at pick #231 I am thinking WR Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint WR Georgia. Georgia WRs have been pretty good lately. I like this guys last name because when he went to summer camp as a kid, his mother had to sew his name on his undies and it went around the whole band.

This is all kind of a sneak preview of Trade-A Rama.

DW Toys


 
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