Perfect trade down scenario

[Love The Drake]

Patriots trade down to 5

Let’s say Wash goes for Daniels.
Patriots don’t love Maye.
Patriots trade down to 5 for the Chargers third and a 5th, so LAC can get Marvin Harrison Jr.
Cardinals are forced to take Nabors.
Patriots at 5 have the option to take Maye or McCarthy, or trade down again based on offers and how they see the board.

 

[Sicilian]

This feels kind of like a half measure. Honestly, if they're not getting future first rounders, I'd rather they just stick at 3. Either they like the QB that is there and takes him, or they get a blue chip player like Alt or Harrison. But trading down for two mid round picks feels like trying to live in both worlds. Commit to the trade down strategy and set up your future drafts, or take the best guy you can at 3. As Ron Swanson would say: Don't half-ass two things. Whole-ass ONE thing.

 

[signbabybrady]

This feels kind of like a half measure. Honestly, if they're not getting future first rounders, I'd rather they just stick at 3. Either they like the QB that is there and takes him, or they get a blue chip player like Alt or Harrison. But trading down for two mid round picks feels like trying to live in both worlds. Commit to the trade down strategy and set up your future drafts, or take the best guy you can at 3. As Ron Swanson would say: Don't half-ass two things. Whole-ass ONE thing.

If you can still get the same QB take the picks.

 

[Sicilian]

If you can still get the same QB take the picks.

But can you? Like, what if Minnesota then calls Arizona with a dump truck full of picks to move up from 11 to take Maye themselves? If you like the guy, don't play games. If you don't like the guy, take someone else or move down for significant assets. We would kill them if they wanted Maye but tried to get cute and lost him to a team that leap frogged them.

 

[Love The Drake]

If you can still get the same QB take the picks.

Exactly.
If you have Maye and McCarthy ranked equal you take the picks and high five.
This draft is stocked in the middle rounds with Wr and defensive talent.
Plus you could use the picks to trade back up and if you really like a player or two.

This is how I would run the draft.
Force either Arizona or LA to take 3 for Harrison Jr.

 

[Love The Drake]

But can you? Like, what if Minnesota then calls Arizona with a dump truck full of picks to move up from 11 to take Maye themselves? If you like the guy, don't play games. If you don't like the guy, take someone else or move down for significant assets. We would kill them if they wanted Maye but tried to get cute and lost him to a team that leap frogged them.

Again saying if we have them equally ranked.
Of course if you have a guy rated sig higher you don’t mess around, but what If you see them both as equal.

 

[signbabybrady]

But can you? Like, what if Minnesota then calls Arizona with a dump truck full of picks to move up from 11 to take Maye themselves? If you like the guy, don't play games. If you don't like the guy, take someone else or move down for significant assets. We would kill them if they wanted Maye but tried to get cute and lost him to a team that leap frogged them.

You have to know what you're doing. You can only do it if you know Zona won't trade and will take Alt or Nabors.

Kind of like Bill staying patient at 15 because he knew no one else was moving up for Mac. Too bad someone didn't move up.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

Patriots trade down to 5

Let’s say was goes for Daniels.
Patriots don’t love Maye,
Patriots trade down to 5 for the chargers third and a 5th so they can get Marvin Harrison Jr.
Cardinals are forced to take Nabors.
Patriots at 5 have the option to take Maye or Mccarhy or trade down again based on offers and how they see the board.

I’ll trade with the Chargers if I can get Herbert.

 

[Love The Drake]

I’ll trade with the Chargers if I can get Herbert.

That would be interesting.

a pipe dream, Harbaugh would be committing career suicide if he was wrong about McCarthy.

 

[mister clyde]

If you can still get the same QB take the picks.

I saw a mock this morning that has picks 1-4 as CHI-Williams, WAS-Maye, NE-Daniels, ARI-McCarthy. Arizona then traded Kyler Murray to Minnesota. Will it happen? Probably not. But unexpected things do happen, and if the QB they want is there at 3 I want them to take him at 3. I don't want to risk losing him because we thought we could get cute and pick up an extra 5th rounder next year. If the guy they want is not there, then yes, look into what trade options exist and then decide what to do.

 

[mgteich]

If we don't want any of the top four, then we need to pick our man at 3. Trading down to 5 basically forces AZ to put the #4 pick up for bids after losing out on Harrison. AND THEN, we might have the one QB the the one we didn't want.

Even trading with AZ is dangerous unless we are fine with both QB's available. If we trade, AZ could still pick a QB or trade the pick to another team.
==========
BOTTOM LINE
If we don't like the QB's available at 3, then sure trade down, get the picks, and draft Nix or Penix in the top 10-12.

The staff is doing a lot to be as sure as they can be with regard to the top QB's. I believe the entire top staff will have gone to all the pro dates, and there have been lots of interviews.

The staff is treating this pick as the most important decision this year. As so it is.

 

[signbabybrady]

I saw a mock this morning that has picks 1-4 as CHI-Williams, WAS-Maye, NE-Daniels, ARI-McCarthy. Arizona then traded Kyler Murray to Minnesota. Will it happen? Probably not. But unexpected things do happen, and if the QB they want is there at 3 I want them to take him at 3. I don't want to risk losing him because we thought we could get cute and pick up an extra 5th rounder next year. If the guy they want is not there, then yes, look into what trade options exist and then decide what to do.

Seems like a dumb mock fairly certain it's financially ridiculous for Zona to trade Murray. Might want to get yourself a new mock.

 

[The Gr8est]

I saw a mock draft by Mike Tannenbaum that added a curve ball that we haven’t been considering.

Everyone seems to be giving MHJ to Arizona at #4, but Tannenbaum had them taking McCarthy. He says that Murray hasn’t been healthy since 2020 and that McCarthy is a better long term prospect.

So maybe Arizona trades Murray and takes a QB with their own pick?

 

[Sicilian]

I saw a mock draft by Mike Tannenbaum that added a curve ball that we haven’t been considering.

Everyone seems to be giving MHJ to Arizona at #4, but Tannenbaum had them taking McCarthy. He says that Murray hasn’t been healthy since 2020 and that McCarthy is a better long term prospect.

So maybe Arizona trades Murray and takes a QB with their own pick?

I would be really surprised. As someone said above, moving Murray is a bit tricky. And even though McCarthy is a bit of a project, Murray doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who would react well to being a bridge guy. I think Arizona is going to give it one more year (with a top tier weapon taken at 4) with Kyler, then look at options next year if it still isn't working.

 

[Love The Drake]

I saw a mock draft by Mike Tannenbaum that added a curve ball that we haven’t been considering.

Everyone seems to be giving MHJ to Arizona at #4, but Tannenbaum had them taking McCarthy. He says that Murray hasn’t been healthy since 2020 and that McCarthy is a better long term prospect.

So maybe Arizona trades Murray and takes a QB with their own pick?

I don’t see it, but it’s possible.
Perfect scenario for us is AZ and Chargers both taking WRs and LA wanting Harrison Jr trading up to 3 to be safe.

Or AZ trading up one to guarantee Harrison Jr.

If AZ drafts Mccarhy they aren’t going to get more than a third for Murray with that contract.

I just don’t see it.

 

[maust]

I saw a mock this morning that has picks 1-4 as CHI-Williams, WAS-Maye, NE-Daniels, ARI-McCarthy. Arizona then traded Kyler Murray to Minnesota. Will it happen? Probably not. But unexpected things do happen, and if the QB they want is there at 3 I want them to take him at 3. I don't want to risk losing him because we thought we could get cute and pick up an extra 5th rounder next year. If the guy they want is not there, then yes, look into what trade options exist and then decide what to do.

@signbabybrady is dead on, Murray's contract makes him pretty much un-tradeable. Far more likely AZ will be looking to provide him with weapons from this draft

 

[Love The Drake]

@signbabybrady is dead on, Murray's contract makes him pretty much un-tradeable. Far more likely AZ will be looking to provide him with weapons from this draft

Which then the trade to 4 or 5 falls right to the Patriots hands.
I just hope our front office is savvy enough to pull this off.

 

[Love The Drake]

When the owner is saying he hopes for a young superstar QB you better believe Elliot just rewatched those guys for the 100th time.

 

[mgteich]

I saw a mock draft by Mike Tannenbaum that added a curve ball that we haven’t been considering.

Everyone seems to be giving MHJ to Arizona at #4, but Tannenbaum had them taking McCarthy. He says that Murray hasn’t been healthy since 2020 and that McCarthy is a better long term prospect.

So maybe Arizona trades Murray and takes a QB with their own pick?

The highest "value" for #3 is at QB.

If AZ has the #3 pick, they would have a difficult choice of picking a QB and trading down to someone who will give a lot to move up to 3.
I suspect that AZ management would realize that they could get a top WR even after a trade down. We should NOT presume that AZ is picking Harrison.

 

[Sicilian]

Which then the trade to 4 or 5 falls right to the Patriots hands.
I just hope our front office is savvy enough to pull this off.

I'd be fine with trading down from 3 to 4 with Arizona, as I'm positive they'd be taking Harrison and everyone else would still be available for the Pats. The trick there is bluffing a bit to make Arizona think you've got better offers on the table to move down further, otherwise they'd have no reason to trade up. It can be done, but for the same reason you're advocating for this, if Arizona has Harrison and Nabers rated similarly, there's no real incentive for them to make that move either.