What really happened in the second round?

[Water Boy]

BB changes his strategy as the Team changes. Why don't you realize that?

BB didn't need a 5th outside CB. He needed some specific talents in a a DB/FS.

When he was in massive rebuild time, he got lots of picks, jumped around the draft and took what he regarded as good players almost irrespective of position or need. Why? He simply believed in the law of numbers, get a lot of good players first, and patch with low rated vet FAs.

But when he had a SB club in its prime, he was much more selective. He filled holes with expensive vet FAs or even trades, like Colvin, AD, Moss and Welker, and backed them up with draftees and other low rated vet FAs. Why? Because he only had a few key openings and holes to fill.

BB has rebuilt ths team from top to bottom in the past 4 years. The last two years it has been fully a SuperBowl favorite type, contender.

The secondary was wrecked in 2011 with an inordinate number of injuries and failures. To improve, he needed to get those injured players back, and add a few more capable starters.

Leigh Bodden, a good CB, has probably suffered a career ending injury. Darien Butler didn't make it. Josh Barrett was lost for the year but is back. Ras-I Dowling was lost for the year, but returns. Chung was lost for more than half a season, but when he came back, the secondary played better.

Meriwether just didn't have the mental discipline to do it; and James Sanders who has that mental discipline and smarts, didn't quite have the athletic gifts required, that Meriwether had in surplus.

BB wanted better players at OLB/DE, LB and RS. He moved up for the first two positions, and drafted a better, bigger, more athletically gifted, guy with the same smarts and flexibility to captain the secondary that was missing from Meriwether's game; but with some athletic gifts and speed and size, missing from Sander's game.

There is a time to go shotgunning, and a time to use carefully aimed rifle shots.

There were slim pickings at Free Safety in this Draft. If BB had not gotten Tavon, I don't doubt he would have used the CAP space from the Brady renegotiations, and future picks, to trade for a guy like FS Alvin Bethea of the Colts. He still may after he sees what he has.

Isn't that just what he did? Where is the panic? Where is the screw-up?

Sorry, I just don't see it. I agree there were probably better athletes available in the second round, but what good are they sitting on the bench or snatched up in final cuts? Belichick is seeking to build a complete Super Bowl winning Team, not a collection of stars.

While I think you make some nice points on painting Tavon Wilson as having the athleticism of Merriweather and the character/leadership of Sanders, I have a hard time accepting that the "carefully aimed rifle shot" (aka Tavon Wilson) was worth the 48th pick. Even if Wilson pans out to be a very good NFL player, I don't think its the best strategy to rely on a non blue chip draft prospect to be the missing piece of the puzzle on a Super Bowl contender in his rookie year - especially at a position like safety.

I'll be the first one to admit it if I'm wrong, but I think Kendall Reyes would have been a much better pick at 48.

 

[SteveKiner]

So what was the "not-panicking" move that they should have done at 48?

That's easy. Mel Kiper's next highest player on the board. I don't know why the Pats waste all the time and money on scouts when they could just read Kiper et al and be experts like some of the posters.

 

[rookBoston]

This makes a lot of sense to me, and is why the Pats' pick that has always baffled me is Brandon Meriweather. In the lead-up to the 2007 draft, I kept arguing that they would never pick Meriweather, because Pats #1 picks are always the prototype for the position: prototype frame, prototype athleticism, prototype character. Meriweather was none of those things. Go figure.

(Of course, Meriweather was a popular pick with fans, whereas much more "prototype" guys like Mankins and Solder went over like lead balloons. IMO cheers are usually for the position in round 1 more than the player.)

Yes, you are 100% right. Meriweather is the case that doesn't fit the idea of being patient and drafting the prototype.

Three possible explanations come to mind. Maybe:
1) Belichick misjudged Meriweather. He thought Meriweather fit the prototype, or was close enough to be coachable (and was wrong)
2) Belichick tried to trade out of the draft slot but couldn't find any eligible buyers.
3) Belichick felt obligated to draft SOMEONE with that pick, and Meriweather was the best he could do

I actually like (3) as the explanation. He was scraping the bottom of the barrel, in desperation, and sold out his principles. Hear me out...

Context: that year, BB traded away the other 1st round pick (to SF for what would become Mayo), out of the 2nd round (Wes Welker), out of the 3rd round (for Oakland's 2008 3rd, which is really poor trade value but again a measure of desperation), out of the 4th round (Randy Moss, who no one else wanted)... he basically traded out of the entire draft... spent some later round picks on training camp fodder. Talk about a vote of no-confidence. Other than Meriweather, just about all the convertible 2007 draft value was converted... into either veteran players or 2008 picks.

Even in retrospect, I don't see anyone in that draft class that I really would have wanted at #24. Lamarr Woodley went in the mid-2nd-- might have been a fit. Eric Weddle has been decent for the Chargers. But really, the draft class was that bad. Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson and Revis at the top of the draft... and other than them, the draft class was pretty empty, starting at #1 with Jamarcus Russell. I can easily believe that BB worked very hard to avoid the 2007 draft, and salvage as much value as he could.

So, why draft Meriweather? Well, Meriweather, at least, belongs in the NFL. That can't be said for many of his class mates, including a lot of first rounders. Why draft anyone at all? Well, can you imagine the PR hoo-hah if the first pick he made that year was Kareem Brown in the 4th round? The photo shoots of Kraft at Gilette Stadium for the annual rookie jersey ceremony with a developmental guy who was pretty unlikely to even make the team? And, can you imagine what the Boston media would have run as the headline if BB had traded both first rounders and the third away, getting ZERO players in return?!? And, imagine what the trolls on this board would have said about him? "He's given up" "He's arrogant" "He's wasting Brady's best years"... blah blah.

As much as he disregards the media and popular opinion, I think he caved. Maybe Kraft told him he couldn't trade to absolutely zero. I think he took a decent player in a bad draft class, and put the best face on it that he could. Meriweather still filled an important need, and made the pro-bowl. He was just not the prototype. And now he's gone, after the housecleaning.

Convincing?

 

[fester]

I stand by what I said; they panicked. The Patriots wanted to trade down at 48 but they could not find any partners and were afraid that all the picks would be gone by the end of the day. Instead of waiting until 62 and trading down from there...they panicked. Then real panic set in at 62 and they made a bad trade down (but luckily redeemed themselves with Dennard)..

There is plenty of evidence that there were willing partners who wanted to trade into the late 40s or early 50s. There were several teams that moved into the areas around the Patriots' pick at 48 that the Patriots routinely do business with. If the Patriots were willing to take a discount (as they proved they were at #62 and then the 5th rounder as well), your hypothesis that the Pats wanted to trade but could not depends heavily on a mysterious telecom failure.

The simpler explanation is that the Patriots were really high on Wilson and Meh about the rest of the draft given the rest of their observed behaviors. That is simpler and more consistent with the facts than psychoanalyzing group actions and inactions based on extraordinarily incomplete information. The question then becomes what had Wilson so differentiated from everyone else available after #25?

 

[Coach42]

He was only a "non blue chip prospect" because no one on the board was talking about him predraft. IMO, if his pro day numbers/college/production/size/versatility/intangibles were known by this board in February instead of May he would have been many peoples binky. Instead he's viewed as some shocking disaster panic pick.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

So what was the "not-panicking" move that they should have done at 48?

Trade down. The could have still gotten Wilson in the third or fourth and had picks left over to play around with rugby guys etc. If they whiffed on Wilson and someone else snatched him up in the second they could grab another safety or get a CB that they could convert. There was no need to panic but they did. Maybe the Jets planted a rumor that Wilson was a hot commodity....

As far as Ron Brace he was a panic pick; they wanted leverage or at least insurance against Wilfork and they must have felt that the big guys were evaporating. Quick; grab anything big...

Butler did not make any sense;he did not have the speed to keep up with the quick guys nor the height to cover the big guys. He was destroyed by Kenny Britt in college. I don't know what tape the Patriots were watching...and I have my doubts about Conn. players.

 

[Sciz]

The could have still gotten Wilson in the third or fourth

You would have an argument if this statement were true. It's not.

 

[Snake Eyes]

You would have an argument if this statement were true. It's not.

It's speculation on his part that Wilson would have been there, as it is on your part that he wouldnt have.

 

[Ivan]

It's speculation on his part that Wilson would have been there, as it is on your part that he wouldnt have.

It's not speculation that Wilson wasn't available in the 3rd and 4th rounds, it's a fact, and any team that was counting on getting him there was wrong.

 

[Water Boy]

It's not speculation that Wilson wasn't available in the 3rd and 4th rounds, it's a fact, and any team that was counting on getting him there was wrong.

Who for a fact was going to take Wilson in the 2nd?

 

[patchick]

It's not speculation that Wilson wasn't available in the 3rd and 4th rounds, it's a fact, and any team that was counting on getting him there was wrong.

So let me get this straight...we know that if the Patriots had passed on Wilson in the 2nd he would not have been available in the 3rd because he was drafted by the Patriots in the 2nd?

:stars2:

We have absolutely no clue who else would have taken Wilson and when. Maybe San Diego at #49; after all, they traded up to grab a similar player, Brandon Taylor, less than a round later. Or maybe Wilson would have lingered deep into day 3. We'll never know.

In the realm of speculation, though: since the draft I've been looking back over the safety options. If you wanted an FS type -- preferably with experience at multiple DB positions, with the right intangibles to become a leader of your secondary -- your options were very, very few.

Barron and Smith were unreachable.
Martin was injured.
Johnson and Iloka had attitude problems.
Trenton Robinson has the size of Kyle Arrington (5'9" 195).
Hardin had a majory injury history, and had only played CB.

Who's left? Taylor, who had only played SS; maybe DeQuan Menzie, who had only played CB; and Tavon Wilson.

 

[Ivan]

So let me get this straight...we know that if the Patriots had passed on Wilson in the 2nd he would not have been available in the 3rd because he was drafted by the Patriots in the 2nd?

:stars2:

We have absolutely no clue who else would have taken Wilson and when.

That's exactly the point. Snake Eyes and others have been insisting he would have been there later but the FACT of the matter is that he was taken in the 2nd, which blows their argument up. If the Patriots wanted him they felt they had to take him there, and if another team was looking for him to last they were wrong. Making the argument that a player would have been there 2-3 rounds later is ridiculous when a player goes much higher than that.

 

[Ivan]

Who for a fact was going to take Wilson in the 2nd?

The Patriots DID take him in the 2nd, so claiming he would have lasted for another 2-3 rounds is clearly BS. A player is not a first round pick if they are taken in the third and a player is not a 4th round pick when they are taken in the 2nd. It is what it is and nothing a bunch of people who read draft magazines say after the fact trumps that reality.

 

[patchick]

That's exactly the point. Snake Eyes and others have been insisting he would have been there later but the FACT of the matter is that he was taken in the 2nd, which blows their argument up. If the Patriots wanted him they felt they had to take him there, and if another team was looking for him to last they were wrong. Making the argument that a player would have been there 2-3 rounds later is ridiculous when a player goes much higher than that.

I do see what you're saying, I think. Let me try it like this:

If you had to pick a single factor to be the best indicator of a prospect's leaguewide draft value, it would have to be when he was drafted.

Yes, it's always possible for one team to rate (or need) a player wildly differently from the rest of the league. E.g., Alex Smith was the #1 overall pick in 2005, but if he hadn't gone #1 he likely would have entered freefall. And you could count on Al Davis for the occasional stunner, like kicker Sebastian Janikowski at #17 overall.

But by and large, the real-life commitment of draft capital by a real-life GM is the best indicator of how the league views a prospect. So it's a fair bet that out of 31 other teams, somebody else also saw Tavon Wilson as a 2nd-round value.

 

[Snake Eyes]

That's exactly the point. Snake Eyes and others have been insisting he would have been there later but the FACT of the matter is that he was taken in the 2nd, which blows their argument up. If the Patriots wanted him they felt they had to take him there, and if another team was looking for him to last they were wrong. Making the argument that a player would have been there 2-3 rounds later is ridiculous when a player goes much higher than that.

Ummm, excuse me, I think he wouild have been available later in the draft if that Pats hadn't taken him at #48, the fact that they did take him at #48 does NOTHING to dispel that.

Just because 1 team pulls the trigger on a player says NOTHING about what all the other teams thought of him. Personally, I don't care in the slightest what other teams thought of Wilson, I think there were better players on the board who would have given us more impact than I think he will.

 

[Snake Eyes]

The Patriots DID take him in the 2nd, so claiming he would have lasted for another 2-3 rounds is clearly BS.

Buying lottery tickets is not considered a sound business strategy, does it suddenly become sound because 1 company decides to do it?

A player is not a first round pick if they are taken in the third and a player is not a 4th round pick when they are taken in the 2nd. It is what it is and nothing a bunch of people who read draft magazines say after the fact trumps that reality.

No one is disputing that Wilson was selected in the 2nd round, the controversy is whether he had anything close to a 2nd Round grade. The scouting reports I read on Wilson state that he's not good at all, and that he'd be lucky to even make a roster, hopefully he'll become a HoF player but I wouldnt bet on it.

The point is that it doesnt make sense to spend Mercedes money on a Toyota, why would you do that when you can spend Toyota money on a Toyota?

 

[Off The Grid]

Worst Thread EVER!!

 

[patchick]

Just because 1 team pulls the trigger on a player says NOTHING about what all the other teams thought of him.

the controversy is whether he had anything close to a 2nd Round grade. The scouting reports I read on Wilson state that he's not good at all, and that he'd be lucky to even make a roster

OK, let's look at the evidence.

On one side we have "the scouting reports you read" saying Wilson is "no good at all." Presumably these weren't NFL scouting reports per se, but opinions from outside draftniks.

On the other side, we have one of the NFL's most extensive scouting operations, with a track record of above-average drafting, spending a second-round pick on Wilson.

Do we know from these two conflicting pieces of info how all 31 other teams viewed Wilson? Nope. Is what you read on websites overwhelming evidence, while the one actual NFL scouting analysis we know about means "NOTHING"? Of course not. We don't know.

Here's the rub: this isn't a game of averages.

Let's give the web draftniks the benefit of the doubt and say that they pegged the dominant NFL sentiment on Wilson. So most teams saw Wilson as a 5th-6th round prospect. Some thought he was a little better than that; some a little worse; a few much better (we know of at least one in that category, right?); a few much worse. Let's say it broke down like this:

VALUATION : #OF TEAMS
2nd : 3
3rd-4th : 5
5th-6th : 16
7th-UDFA : 5
no interest : 3

That makes him, overall, exactly a 5th-6th round prospect, just as the draftniks claimed. Go draftniks! Yet there's very little chance that he'd last until the 5th-6th rounds.

Do you remember a couple of years ago how there were reports that teams were all over the map on Brandon Spikes? Given his physical makeup and style of play, Some had him as a solid 2nd rounder, many others as a day-3 guy, and some as undraftable. To the Patriots, he was worth the 2nd round pick, even if dozens of other teams disagreed.

 

[fester]

The Patriots DID take him in the 2nd, so claiming he would have lasted for another 2-3 rounds is clearly BS. A player is not a first round pick if they are taken in the third and a player is not a 4th round pick when they are taken in the 2nd. It is what it is and nothing a bunch of people who read draft magazines say after the fact trumps that reality.

Ivan --- disagree, it is a projection of the team with the second highest value on a player. Drafting is full of winners curses where the team that drafts a player usually has a grade/value on that player that is higher than league average. The question being debated is what was the 2nd highest value in the NFL on Wilson, not the first highest value which the Patriots revealed as equal to the 48th pick in the draft.

A good example of this is the supplemental draft which forces teams to reveal their actual preference order. Each team bids their subjective value of a player in terms of the draft pick that they'll forfeit, and the highest bidding team gets the player. A team that bids a 4th round pick and gets the player values the player as a 4th rounder (or better, although the set-up of that auction encourages bidding the maximum willingness to pay), but the question being raised here is if another team would have bid a lower 4th rounder or the next best bid was a 7th rounder. That is the debate.

The Patriots drafting Wilson OR any other player merely reveals that they subjectively value Wilson the highest (on a complicated multi-dimensional calculus) compared to any other player available on their own evaluation system. It does not say that the Steelers valued Wilson just as highly or the Giants would have grabbed him at 63 if he was available.


Now how do we resolve that debate given the current format of the NFL draft.

We can't with 100% accuracy.

However, we can look at teams that historically have drafted players similar to Patriots draftees, we can look at teams that drafted similar players to Wilson and see where they went in the draft, we can look at who scouted Wilson, we can make guesstimates (at best)

 

[Snake Eyes]

OK, let's look at the evidence.

On one side we have "the scouting reports you read" saying Wilson is "no good at all." Presumably these weren't NFL scouting reports per se, but opinions from outside draftniks.

On the other side, we have one of the NFL's most extensive scouting operations, with a track record of above-average drafting, spending a second-round pick on Wilson.

Do we know from these two conflicting pieces of info how all 31 other teams viewed Wilson? Nope. Is what you read on websites overwhelming evidence, while the one actual NFL scouting analysis we know about means "NOTHING"? Of course not. We don't know.

Here's the rub: this isn't a game of averages.

Let's give the web draftniks the benefit of the doubt and say that they pegged the dominant NFL sentiment on Wilson. So most teams saw Wilson as a 5th-6th round prospect. Some thought he was a little better than that; some a little worse; a few much better (we know of at least one in that category, right?); a few much worse. Let's say it broke down like this:

VALUATION : #OF TEAMS
2nd : 3
3rd-4th : 5
5th-6th : 16
7th-UDFA : 5
no interest : 3

That makes him, overall, exactly a 5th-6th round prospect, just as the draftniks claimed. Go draftniks! Yet there's very little chance that he'd last until the 5th-6th rounds.

Do you remember a couple of years ago how there were reports that teams were all over the map on Brandon Spikes? Given his physical makeup and style of play, Some had him as a solid 2nd rounder, many others as a day-3 guy, and some as undraftable. To the Patriots, he was worth the 2nd round pick, even if dozens of other teams disagreed.

It wasn’t just draftnik scounts, Wes Bunting rated him low and even the NFL had a bad grade on him. The players around Wilson had grades in the low 80s and then you see Wilson and 48 and change.

To me, the question isn’t whether he’d have been there in the 5th, no one knows, but is there a better way to spend that pick? I would be thrilled if we got Lavonte David or Kendall Reyes, but even if we traded the pick back to beef up our lines, especially in the middle, I think we’d have been better off.