What is the winning formula in today's NFL?

[bradyforlife]

Other posters have pointed out a lot of things that seem to go into the mix: front seven on D, Strong O line, good pass rush, decent running game, top QB, limited turnovers.

What strikes me most, though, about each of those teams is that they were each playing their best ball in the Playoffs and they brought their "A" game to their SB win. The Colts, for example, in 2006 played their best against the Pats in the AFCCG and in the SB, but this year never really got untracked in the Playoffs, probably because they effectively shut down over a month earlier.

The second thing that strikes me is something that another poster pointed out as well: a little bit of Luck. Pats' fans don't need to be told about that after the "Magic Helmet" catch; Cards fans still can't believe that Santonio Holmes stayed in bounds--skill? for sure, but his foot could just as well have landed a few centimeters the other way; and, let's be honest, we were lucky when Donovan had a brain fart and wasted the clock towards the end of SB XXXIX. The Saints played the game of their lives this year.

Luck plays a MAJOR factor in it. If it wasn't for luck I'd say the Patriots would have at least 4 Superbowl wins right now...Maybe 5. (damn broncos)

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Luck plays a MAJOR factor in it. If it wasn't for luck I'd say the Patriots would have at least 4 Superbowl wins right now...Maybe 5. (damn broncos)

so luck didn't play a part in 2001?

 

[Mongo Heathen]

....Throwing my hat in the ring:

1. Strength up the middle - start with a strong defensive line (NT, then guards + tackles) followed by middle linebacker, safeties (to keep the ball in front of them) followed by corners. The idea is to keep the team in the game scoring-wise (see early '00s Ravens).

2. Strength up the middle on offense - start with a dominant offensive pass protecting line (go inside out - center, then 'blind side' guard), followed by an efficient qb that doesn't make mental errors. (The Redskins and assorted other teams have used this to great effect - the 'Skins won three SBs with three different QBs behind center - because of an awesome O-line - all the QB has to be is efficient. It's gravy when you have a Brady, Breese or Manning - they can make an average to shaky O-line look pretty good.)

3. Solid posession receivers with decent YAC.

4. Solid RB corp that can get you a team YPC of 4.0 or better per game. The only purpose behind having a running game in this day and age is to play clock control and to be unpredictable to the defense.

I agree with the comment about the game changing with the 'Polian Rule' (no mugging of the receivers after 5 yards from scrimmage). So...it's a passer's game now...

Anyway - my $1.50...

 

[tanked_as_usual]

depends on the scheme, but if you run a 3-4, you need LB's or you are wasting your time

 

[WhiZa]

I don't think you can look at a formula and solely based it on stats or being strong in a certain position. You need to look at a teams ability to win games whether it be by 50 points, or come from behind, or relying on the defense, etc. The Pats had a good enough team to win it all talent-wise, but they just couldn't close out games. This has everything to do with not having players who know how to win (or not how to lose), and not much to do with having a large number of pro-bowl players on your team.

 

[chevss454]

depends on the scheme, but if you run a 3-4, you need LB's or you are wasting your time

Yes! And and offensive line that prevents pressure on Brady! While we're at it, give Brady more than 2 legit weapons to receive passes.

Give Brady time and weapons and he will kill any defense. Otoh, if he is running and ducking, he is no better than any other QB. Pressure is a great equalizer.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Yes! And and offensive line that prevents pressure on Brady! While we're at it, give Brady more than 2 legit weapons to receive passes.

Give Brady time and weapons and he will kill any defense. Otoh, if he is running and ducking, he is no better than any other QB. Pressure is a great equalizer.

how about a scheme that keeps teams from blitzing brady? the OL was not much different a few years ago........it was jsut that the pats deployed a different scheme that incorporated many more targets and many mroe shorter passes.....

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Yes! And and offensive line that prevents pressure on Brady! While we're at it, give Brady more than 2 legit weapons to receive passes.

Give Brady time and weapons and he will kill any defense. Otoh, if he is running and ducking, he is no better than any other QB. Pressure is a great equalizer.

give most QB's enough time and weapons, and they will have a field day......as the 300 yard days that guys like chad henne and kyle orton put up on the pats last year will tell you

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Luck plays a MAJOR factor in it. If it wasn't for luck I'd say the Patriots would have at least 4 Superbowl wins right now...Maybe 5. (damn broncos)

I wouldn't call it a "MAJOR" factor. That's a dangerous road to go down. By the same token you could argue that if it weren't for luck they might also have one or none. The tuck call was a lucky break, whether it was right or wrong; the Panther KO in SB XXXVIII at the end of the fourth quarter that went OB and gave the Pats possession on the 40 was a lucky break; Donovan's brain fart that took several minutes off the clock at the end of SB XXXIX could also be called a lucky break.

And, anticipating your objections, you can't say that it's "lucky" when it works against us and something else when it works for us.

 

[Disco Volante]

1) Make the playoffs
2) Win your playoff games
3) ????
4) Profit!

 

[VOODOOZF]

I ask this because I imagine that is what we want the Patriots to follow...

and yet now with the combine and the draft looming, it seems to me that many members here are actually citing needs which would in fact go against what many of us will inadvertedly see as one unique method at winning a superbowl

so, let us have the ideas, the last champion have been

10: Saints over colts
09: Steelers over cards
08: giants over patriots
07: colts over bears
06: steelers over seattle
05: pats over eagles
04: pats over panthers

i personally would like to look at last years superbowl in order to expose a winning formula, specifically not only because those two teams made the superbowl, because they were undefeated for most of the season, and both finished as the #1 seeds, which means that they were the two best teams for the whole season in the entire league, and also both at one point handily beat the #1 defense of the league (jets)

maybe its easy to see where i am heading with this...but its obvious offense is what will win a team a superbowl and reg season games today

an offense with an exceptional passing QB, and multiple great WR threats, including a pass catching TE, which only require a decent stable of rb's, and a decent o-line

the defense simply has to hold up its own a little bit, in Indy's case it came up with the plays when they were needed, in the case of the saints it was very dynamic, creating turnovers, which changed the game, otherwise it would have been an average defense

so guys......take it from here: what do we REALLY want this offseason

In my mind the best way to go about having a winning team is to have a dominant defense with a better than avg offense with a smart qb.

 

[ALP]

In my mind the best way to go about having a winning team is to have a dominant defense with a better than avg offense with a smart qb.

why? there is no evidence to back this up

all recent evidence shows that its the offense that needs to be top 10, and the defense just has to not be atrocious

 

[woolster22]

A) elite passing game (top flight QB and 3+ good wr's)
B) serviceable run game
C) excellent pass rush
D) Avg secondary
E) B/B+ o/d lines

 

[cavtroop]

A) elite passing game (top flight QB and 3+ good wr's)
B) serviceable run game
C) excellent pass rush
D) Avg secondary
E) B/B+ o/d lines

Quoted for truth.

It's all about the passing game now. The 'rules emphasis' has had a MUCH bigger impact than anyone could imagine.

Making the game less interesting to me, thats for sure (I like running and solid D)

 

[ALP]

Put me in the category of ppl who liked having the defence and run game be important but itjust isntanymore

therefore inthe draft we need to focus on bringing our offense bak to an elite status, and not worry so much about the d

we should have have scored more points in almost all the games we lost