What if Aaron Curry Falls?

[FreeTedWilliams]

Jacksonville can not take another first Rd WR bust. Especially at 8. I think that they are going to end up in the driver's seat at 8,if either Sanchez or Stafford falls to that spot. Then they will be able to either take the QB, or exact large amounts of draft picks by playing the Skins against the Jests.

 

[mayoclinic]

Jacksonville can not take another first Rd WR bust. Especially at 8. I think that they are going to end up in the driver's seat at 8,if either Sanchez or Stafford falls to that spot. Then they will be able to either take the QB, or exact large amounts of draft picks by playing the Skins against the Jests.

I don't think Stafford or Sanchez are going to get close to #8. Stafford is all but certain to go #1 to Detroit. And Sanchez will almost certainly be gone by #5, either the Seattle at #4 or via trades with KC at #3 or Cleveland at #5. The big question now is whether Washington is willing to pony up two 1st round picks to jump ahead of Seattle.

Jacksonville at #8 won't have much leverage. Curry, Tyson Jackson, Raji, and the 2nd tier OT's are likely to be the players available. A trade up from 23 to 8 for what Jacksonville paid last year in order to get Curry would seem quite feasible in this scenario. Just a possibility, but more likely than it seemed a week or so ago.

Curry at 8, Barwin or Beatty at 34, and a safety at 47 would be fabulous.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I'm not going to get my hopes up for Curry although he would make for an interesting meal with Mayo. Perhaps BB will want a taste of Peppers on draft day instead?

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm not going to get my hopes up for Curry although he would make for an interesting meal with Mayo. Perhaps BB will want a taste of Peppers on draft day instead?

I'm not going to get my hopes up either. But IF the Pats want to target someone in the top 10 they have plenty of ammo to do it and not cannabalize their draft, and it will probably be cheaper than we think.

This is from Mike Lombardi's column this morning: FROM ADAM TEICHER OF THE KANSAS CITY STAR… Typically, (the Chiefs) could get a ransom for moving a few spots back from the third pick. This year, they’ll probably be happy with whatever they can get in trade. “That old trade chart that all of the teams used to use, it started to go out the window last year, and like the economy it’s completely out the window now,” NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock said. “Any team in the top 10 looking to get out will listen to any reasonable offer. More than ever, teams are looking to get down to 15 to 25 because you can get the same kind of player at 20 as you can at (No.) 7 and you’ll pay one-third the money. “I’m (eager) to follow early on in this draft if trades get made, at what level do they get made? I think teams are going to be willing to get out of the top 10 for literally half of what they used to take. Rookies are getting paid way too much money proportionate to their value, so teams are scared to death to miss in the top 10.”

I keep getting a sense the Chiefs will trade down. And the trade chart will have no bearing on what to expect from a trade. The Chiefs will have to take a reduced value if they want to make this happen. How can they make Aaron Curry one of the highest-paid players in the NFL if he’s not able to sack the passer? Only Brian Urlacher and Ray Lewis are linebackers who got paid handsomely who did not rush the passer, and they didn’t get paid until their second contracts. I like Curry as a player and think he can be a very good pro, but at three I would be very worried about the value of the player meeting the money spent. As we see from the Bills and Jason Peters, it might cause more problems than it solves.

The National Football Post | Diner Morning News: Brown’s Trade Demand

I think Curry slips past KC at 3 because of the money issue and falls to at least 8-10. There are rumors he could slip out of the top 10. It's just too much money to pay for most teams for someone who isn't an OT, QB, or pass rushing demon. But for the Pats, 8-10 range for the ideal complement to Mayo isn't unreasonable. With Curry at MIKE and Mayo at WILL the Pats would be set for the next decade. Heck, 23 + 58 might be enough to get it done.

It's just a thought. I wouldn't get my hopes up either. And we're in great shape sitting right where we are. But I think the Pats can let the draft come to them and potentially come out smelling like roses.

 

[mayoclinic]

Thinking a bit more about the trade-up scenario, I think there is a good chance the top 7 goes something like this:

1. Detroit - Matt Stafford, QB
2. St. Louis - Jason Smith, OT
3. KC - either trades #3 to Washington (for Mark Sanchez) or Eugene Monroe, OT
4. Seattle - either Eugene Monroe, OT or Mark Sanchez, QB
5. Cleveland - Michael Crabtree, WR
6. Cincinnati - one of Brian Orapko DE/BJ Raji DT/Andre Smith OT
7. Oakland - one of Jeremy Maclin WR/BJ Raji DT/Andre Smith OT

That would leave Aaron Curry and possibly BJ Raji on the board at #8. IF that turns out to be the case, starting at #8 I would offer 23 + 58 in a trade. If Jacksonville passes, I wait for #9 and see if Curry and/or Raji are still available, and make the same offer, all the way down to around Denver at #12, or possibly even New Orleans at #14. Somewhere further down, Andre Smith and Malcolm Jenkins may be options if they are still available. If no one bits, I sit tight at 23 all the way to the bank. But someone will bite.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Jacksonville can not take another first Rd WR bust. Especially at 8. I think that they are going to end up in the driver's seat at 8,if either Sanchez or Stafford falls to that spot. Then they will be able to either take the QB, or exact large amounts of draft picks by playing the Skins against the Jests.

The signing of Holt ends what I think is speculating that Jax takes a WR as a #1 pick - Look for them to grab a WR in day two of the draft.

I think Jax will grab either a QB like Sanchez or a DE in round one

 

[Deus Irae]

The signing of Holt ends what I think is speculating that Jax takes a WR as a #1 pick - Look for them to grab a WR in day two of the draft.

I think Jax will grab either a QB like Sanchez or a DE in round one

Jacksonville also makes a lot of sense as a potential trading partner for the Patriots.

 

[mayoclinic]

Jacksonville also makes a lot of sense as a potential trading partner for the Patriots.

See post #65 above. I think Sanchez is long gone by pick 8, and Jacksonville is reportedly eager to trade down. I say we offer them 23 and 58 if Aaron Curry is still on the board. That's not far off of what they gave Baltimore to move from 26 to 8 last year, and Mike Mayock says teams will grab at anything approaching a decent offer.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Jacksonville also makes a lot of sense as a potential trading partner for the Patriots.

I agree - Its a worldwide known fact that Jax and the other 9 teams in the top 10 of round 1 DO NOT want to stay there which makes this draft and trading very interesting as the draft nears.

But Jacksonville seems to be the most willing to do ANYTHING with another team to get out of that spot and that team to trade with can certainly be the Patriots.

However I do think that Philly is going to parlay thier 2 picks in the 20s and move up to grab a WR like Crabtree or a RB like Moreno or Wells which could be a deal with Jax - However Crabtree would probably be gone by #9


I do know one thing ... There is ZERO chance and I mean ZERO chance that the top 10 teams stay where they are at - NEVER going to happen,bet the house,car,wife and kids (not in that particular order) on this,There will be moves and multiple ones most likely.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I agree - Its a worldwide known fact that Jax and the other 9 teams in the top 10 of round 1 DO NOT want to stay there which makes this draft and trading very interesting as the draft nears.

But Jacksonville seems to be the most willing to do ANYTHING with another team to get out of that spot and that team to trade with can certainly be the Patriots.

However I do think that Philly is going to parlay thier 2 picks in the 20s and move up to grab a WR like Crabtree or a RB like Moreno or Wells which could be a deal with Jax - However Crabtree would probably be gone by #9


I do know one thing ... There is ZERO chance and I mean ZERO chance that the top 10 teams stay where they are at - NEVER going to happen,bet the house,car,wife and kids (not in that particular order) on this,There will be moves and multiple ones most likely.

Buffalo now has 2 first round picks (#11 & 28) & Denver (#12 & #18) neither I think will move up for Sanchez. I would not be suprized to see KC move down. I can't really envision a scenario where Curry gets past the top 4 picks.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Buffalo now has 2 first round picks (#11 & 28) & Denver (#12 & #18) neither I think will move up for Sanchez. I would not be suprized to see KC move down. I can't really envision a scenario where Curry gets past the top 4 picks.

I think Buffalo will set thier sights on Pat White on day two and Denver will wait to see if Freeman is worth a chance for one of the #1 picks.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Thinking a bit more about the trade-up scenario, I think there is a good chance the top 7 goes something like this:

1. Detroit - Matt Stafford, QB
2. St. Louis - Jason Smith, OT
3. KC - either trades #3 to Washington (for Mark Sanchez) or Eugene Monroe, OT
4. Seattle - either Eugene Monroe, OT or Mark Sanchez, QB
5. Cleveland - Michael Crabtree, WR
6. Cincinnati - one of Brian Orapko DE/BJ Raji DT/Andre Smith OT
7. Oakland - one of Jeremy Maclin WR/BJ Raji DT/Andre Smith OT

1. Detroit - No change.
2. St. Louis - No change.
3. Cleveland (from KC) - Mark Sanchez, QB (#5, Brady Quinn; KC sends their 2010 3rd)
4. Seattle - Eugene Monroe, OT
5. KC (from Cleveland) - Tyson Jackson, DE
6. Cincinnati - Andre Smith OT
7. Oakland - Darius Heywood-Bey, WR
8. Jacksonville - Michael Oher, OT
9. Green Bay - Brian Orakpo, LB
10. SF - Jeremy Maclin, WR
11. Buffalo - Aaron Curry, LB
12. TB (from Denver) - Josh Freeman, QB (TB #19, 2010 3rd)
13. Washington - Brian Cushing, LB
14. NO - Rey Maualuga, LB
15. Houston - Michael Jenkins, CB
16. SD - Eben Britton, OT
17. KC (from NYJ) - BJ Raji, DT (Brady Quinn to NYJ; NYJ #193 to KC)
18. Denver - Darius Butler, CB
19. Denver (from TB) - Michael Crabtree, WR
20. Detroit - William Beatty, OT

 

[mayoclinic]

1. Detroit - No change.
2. St. Louis - No change.
3. Cleveland (from KC) - Mark Sanchez, QB (#5, Brady Quinn; KC sends their 2010 3rd)
4. Seattle - Eugene Monroe, OT
5. KC (from Cleveland) - Tyson Jackson, DE
6. Cincinnati - Andre Smith OT
7. Oakland - Darius Heywood-Bey, WR
8. Jacksonville - Michael Oher, OT
9. Green Bay - Brian Orakpo, LB
10. SF - Jeremy Maclin, WR
11. Buffalo - Aaron Curry, LB
12. TB (from Denver) - Josh Freeman, QB (TB #19, 2010 3rd)
13. Washington - Brian Cushing, LB
14. NO - Rey Maualuga, LB
15. Houston - Michael Jenkins, CB
16. SD - Eben Britton, OT
17. KC (from NYJ) - BJ Raji, DT (Brady Quinn to NYJ; NYJ #193 to KC)
18. Denver - Darius Butler, CB
19. Denver (from TB) - Michael Crabtree, WR
20. Detroit - William Beatty, OT

If Aaron Curry falls past 10 or BJ Raji past 16 then I would hope the Pats would jump into the fray. Either one would be worth the move.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Mayo I got a question for you, Say Raji does fall and we trade up to get him. Ok does this signal the end of Vince Wilfork? If so wouldn't It be smart to maybe unload him for a first or maybe a player or a combo of both? I think that if we did have both Raji could be starting by week 6 or so. I think another player or a first round pick would be more valuable than the six weeks of production that we have him starting for.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo I got a question for you, Say Raji does fall and we trade up to get him. Ok does this signal the end of Vince Wilfork? If so wouldn't It be smart to maybe unload him for a first or maybe a player or a combo of both? I think that if we did have both Raji could be starting by week 6 or so. I think another player or a first round pick would be more valuable than the six weeks of production that we have him starting for.

I've said repeatedly that I could see Raji bringing tremendous value regardless of whether we keep Wilfork (which I certainly hope we do). I think that BB could use him in a variety of ways which would create schematic and personnel mismatches and nightmares for opposing teams. I first documented this line of thought 3 months ago:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/209694-bj-raji-hypothetical.html

For a long time I considered Raji my #1 prospect for the Pats, even above Aaron Curry. I'm beginning to think Curry is a safer bet though. While Raji may offer more overall defensive value, I think that Curry is a surer bet and more likely to make an impact day 1, and that he and Mayo would be an all pro ILB combination for 10 years. I go back and forth on this one, though.

 

[TriplecHamp]

I know MayoClinic has been all over this but Aaron Currys stock is falling. On PTD: Charlie Casserly talked about how Curry can fall a bit.
1) Teams in the 3-4 are afraid that he cannot and is not ready to rush the QB effectivly. He is a LB who probably wont get allot of sacks.
2) 4-3 teams dont want to pay him top ten money becaus he is a Sam Backer.
Charlie said that in his latest mock he had Curry going at #12.

 

[mayoclinic]

I know MayoClinic has been all over this but Aaron Currys stock is falling. On PTD: Charlie Casserly talked about how Curry can fall a bit.
1) Teams in the 3-4 are afraid that he cannot and is not ready to rush the QB effectivly. He is a LB who probably wont get allot of sacks.
2) 4-3 teams dont want to pay him top ten money becaus he is a Sam Backer.
Charlie said that in his latest mock he had Curry going at #12.

#12 seems a reach. But I think it is totally up in the air where Curry ends up within the top 10. Detroit has reportedly reached a deal with him at #1 as a backup if they can't come to terms with Stafford. I doubt that happens. I don't see KC spending #3 money on an LB. Seattle or Cleveland may bite, but I could realistically see him drop to the 8-10 range. At that point I think someone trades up for him - hopefully the Pats. He is too solid and too talented to drop much further.

BB in his presser the other day talked about a player's "value" being specific to different teams. I think Curry has great value for the Pats. He would be an ideal complement to Mayo, and along with Mayo and Thomas give us 3/4 of the best LB rotation in the NFL. Our achilles heel over the past several years has been covering the TE over the middle, and I think that with those 3 guys at LB we would be better equipped than any team in the league to stop that threat. With Curry and Mayo behind Wilfork we would be deadly against the run up the middle. And as good as Mayo was last year, I think Curry and Mayo together will be synergistic and will feed off of each other to be much better. So I think Curry's value to the Pats is worthy of trading into the 8-10 range IF he drops that far. He may not, but I would keep an eye on it, whereas previously I had written him off as unreachable (he used to be on my avatar until I gave up hope of getting him).

 

[mgteich]

So, with a couple of days to go, Curry could be the 1st pick or he could drop out of the top 10.

 

[mayoclinic]

So, with a couple of days to go, Curry could be the 1st pick or he could drop out of the top 10.

I think 1st pick is still highly unlikely, and I think out of the top 10 is highly unlikely. But anywhere from 3 to 10 is realistic.

Here's an article from Vic Carucci at NFL.com today on how clouded the top 10 picture is this year compared with previous years:

Who's No. 1? GMs, scouts agree that they can't agree

I think in Curry's case the uncertainty has nothing to do with the player, it's more a factor of teams actually coming to terms with realizing that top 5 money is a sh*tload to throw at someone who is a 4-3 SAM or a 3-4 SILB.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

So, with a couple of days to go, Curry could be the 1st pick or he could drop out of the top 10.

Isn't that amazing, it just goes to show how rough the draft can be on kids.

I secretly can't hope but root for the underdog, so I hope Stafford prices himself out of the #1 spot and Curry goes #1. That could shake up the entire top ten and maybe spring Jackson for us to trade up and secure.