What if Aaron Curry Falls?

[Deus Irae]

Curry is lucky he's coming out this year instead of last year. Last year, he might not have cracked the top 10. His draft position will be a function of weakness at the top, not a function of his greatness.

 

[BPF]

Curry is lucky he's coming out this year instead of last year. Last year, he might not have cracked the top 10. His draft position will be a function of weakness at the top, not a function of his greatness.

Is this comment a joke? This statement couldn't be farther from the truth. Curry is a very solid prospect and will most likely be an all-pro type performer no matter where he goes.

Here's last year's top 10 below, all the bold teams would have seriously considered taking him:

1 Miami Long, Jake OT
2 St. Louis Long, Chris DE
3 Atlanta Ryan, Matt QB
4 Oakland McFadden, Darren RB
5 Kansas City Dorsey, Glenn DT
6 NY Jets Gholston, Vernon DE/OLB
7 New Orleans Ellis, Sedrick DT
8 Jacksonville Harvey, Derrick DE
9 Cincinnati Rivers, Keith LB
10 New England Mayo, Jerod OLB

 

[Deus Irae]

Is this comment a joke? This statement couldn't be farther from the truth. Curry is a very solid prospect and will most likely be an all-pro type performer no matter where he goes.

Here's last year's top 10 below, all the bold teams would have seriously considered taking him:

What does that have to do with where he would have been drafted last year? I didn't knock him in any way. He simply is coming out in a year where there's nothing great at the top to keep a linebacker from going higher than usual.

Since you got your dander up, though, tell me:

Which team in last year's top 5 would have taken Curry instead of the player they chose?

 

[BPF]

What does that have to do with where he would have been drafted last year? I didn't knock him in any way. He simply is coming out in a year where there's nothing great at the top to keep a linebacker from going higher than usual.

Since you got your dander up, though, tell me:

Which team in last year's top 5 would have taken Curry instead of the player they chose?

I listed them for you in bold in my last post, here you go all the teams in bold:
1 Miami Long, Jake OT
2 St. Louis Long, Chris DE
3 Atlanta Ryan, Matt QB
4 Oakland McFadden, Darren RB
5 Kansas City Dorsey, Glenn DT
6 NY Jets Gholston, Vernon DE/OLB
7 New Orleans Ellis, Sedrick DT
8 Jacksonville Harvey, Derrick DE
9 Cincinnati Rivers, Keith LB
10 New England Mayo, Jerod OLB

 

[Ungeheuer]

Curry is definitely going to go high, and he's about 80-90% likely to be gone by #4. I'm just saying there aren't that many teams who want to commit that much money to that kind of linebacker (ie not a pass-rusher, more a volume-tackler type). If he's even on the board with an offensive or defensive tackle, a wideout, a quarterback, a DE, even a corner, teams will probably go the other way. It's just the nature of the beast.

Go back and look at the draft. The only true linebackers (ie not conversion projects) who've gone in the top 5 in the past decade are A.J. Hawk (5) and LaVarr Arrington (2). It's incredibly rare. Even looking at the top 10, the only guys beyond those are Chris Claiborne and (I think) Ernie Sims.

I'm not even sure Curry is a great fit for the Pats. Personally I would rather they stood at 23 and made their pick there. But this is a team that needs a linebacker and Curry might end up being available-ish. It's something to consider.

 

[Deus Irae]

I listed them for you in bold in my last post, here you go all the teams in bold:
1 Miami Long, Jake OT
2 St. Louis Long, Chris DE
3 Atlanta Ryan, Matt QB
4 Oakland McFadden, Darren RB
5 Kansas City Dorsey, Glenn DT
6 NY Jets Gholston, Vernon DE/OLB
7 New Orleans Ellis, Sedrick DT
8 Jacksonville Harvey, Derrick DE
9 Cincinnati Rivers, Keith LB
10 New England Mayo, Jerod OLB

There's no way in hell St. Louis or Kansas City would have taken Curry over Long or Dorsey and that second five all being bolded is just insane.

 

[BPF]

There's no way in hell St. Louis or Kansas City would have taken Curry over Long or Dorsey and that second five all being bolded is just insane.

Why? Give me some reasons. "just insane," doesn't convince me of anything. The real Long the Rams wanted was Jake and if you remember Dorsey had lots of question marks. Gholston, Harvey and Rivers were drafted way too high and I could easily see Curry being picked instead of those players if he were in last year's class.

 

[TriplecHamp]

There's no way in hell St. Louis or Kansas City would have taken Curry over Long or Dorsey and that second five all being bolded is just insane.

You are Prob right about STL and KC but Aaron Curry right now is and would have been a better LB prospect than Mayo, and Rivers.

 

[spacecrime]

Linebackers in the top 5 are pretty rare.

I agree with this. It happens very rarely that the top defensive player is a LB. But that doesn't mean a team will pick a lesser rated player.

If it happens, terrific. To me it sounds like twisting the facts around to satisfy your fantasy, like the, "Let's trade Rohan/Maroney/whoever for a first round pick" threads.

If he lasts to 8, I promise to come back here and admit to being flabbergasted.

EDIT: Actually, not terrific. I'd rather have 23 and 34 picks than Curry. So even in the unlikely event Curry falls, I hope they don't trade.

 

[Deus Irae]

Why? Give me some reasons. "just insane," doesn't convince me of anything. The real Long the Rams wanted was Jake and if you remember Dorsey had lots of question marks. Gholston, Harvey and Rivers were drafted way too high and I could easily see Curry being picked instead of those players if he were in last year's class.

Give you reasons? Why, when you didn't bother to give any yourself? New Orleans traded up, WITH NEW ENGLAND, to make sure that they got Ellis because they were so desperate at the tackle position, yet you still bolded that pic as if they'd have taken Curry.

Really, these two paragraphs should explain it all about your posts.

Ellis was rated by most as the best available prospect at the time of the pick. The Saints reportedly tried to get LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey two spots earlier, offering a much larger bounty (possibly including next year's first round pick). But Dorsey went to the Kansas City Chiefs at No. 5.

Defensive tackle was considered the Saints' top need heading into the draft. They have a deep group of solid veterans at the position (Hollis Thomas, Brian Young, Kendrick Clancy and Antwan Lake). But they need to get more athletic and explosive up front.

Saints trade up, draft Ellis - New Orleans Saints Beat - Times-Picayune NFL - NOLA.com

 

[Deus Irae]

You are Prob right about STL and KC but Aaron Curry right now is and would have been a better LB prospect than Mayo, and Rivers.

Well, I don't know how Belioli would have called that one, so I can't really comment on it. It's pretty clear that Mayo was targeted, since Holley had that pick pegged before the draft. How that might have changed if Curry had been in that same draft is something we'll likely never know with any real certainty.

 

[spacecrime]

You mean, except when they trade up in the first round, right? Like they did for Daniel Graham? And for Ty Warren?

They moved up one spot for Ty Warren and the circumstances were different. THere had already been 5 DTs taken and BB was afraid that someone would trade with Chicago ahead of him and snatch the last good one. THey gave up like a sixth round pick to move up one spot. Hardly the same as moving from 23 to 8.

Graham was definately a trade up. There were only two decent TEs in the draft (though some also liked Stevens) and Shockey had already gone (another instance of a team trading up one spot as the Titans (IIRC) told the Giants that someone was about to trade with them and cold the Giants do better. Clever way to squeeze out a draft pick and still get the guy you wanted a pick later (and cheaper).

 

[BPF]

Give you reasons? Why, when you didn't bother to give any yourself? New Orleans traded up, WITH NEW ENGLAND, to make sure that they got Ellis because they were so desperate at the tackle position, yet you still bolded that pic as if they'd have taken Curry.

Really, these two paragraphs should explain it all about your posts.



Saints trade up, draft Ellis - New Orleans Saints Beat - Times-Picayune NFL - NOLA.com

Ok, that explains the Saints. How about the other teams? My point is that Curry is clean on and off the field and he is a very safe pick in any draft. Nolan Nawrocki said "Curry is one of the top LBs to come out of the draft in the last decade." Mayock said something very similar. The kid is big, strong, fast, explosive and has outstanding intangibles. In addition he displays the skills and traits that would make him a great player, and thus desirable by multiple teams no matter if 40 or 30 front, as a SLB in a 4-3 or inside in a 3-4. The only weakness to his game is his inexperience as a rush LB.

 

[Deus Irae]

Ok, that explains the Saints. How about the other teams? My point is that Curry is clean on and off the field and he is a very safe pick in any draft. Nolan Nawrocki said "Curry is one of the top LBs to come out of the draft in the last decade." Mayock said something very similar. The kid is big, strong, fast, explosive and has outstanding intangibles. In addition he displays the skills and traits that would make him a great player, and thus desirable by multiple teams no matter if 40 or 30 front, as a SLB in a 4-3 or inside in a 3-4. The only weakness to his game is his inexperience as a rush LB.

Again, I wasn't putting down Curry at all. I was merely pointing out that his potential status as a top 5 pick is a function of a year with a poor 'elite' group. Linebackers don't usually get taken in the top 5, and Curry most likely wouldn't have been an exception last season. I can't vouch for crazy, of course.

 

[BPF]

Again, I wasn't putting down Curry at all. I was merely pointing out that his potential status as a top 5 pick is a function of a year with a poor 'elite' group. Linebackers don't usually get taken in the top 5, and Curry most likely wouldn't have been an exception last season. I can't vouch for crazy, of course.

That comment I might agree with but that's only been since 1998, before that LBs were consistently taken in the top 5. I think that's why some are saying that Curry is the best LB prospect to come along in the past decade. Let's look at the past 20 yrs, we have AJ Hawk going #5 to GB in 2006, LaVar Arrington going #2 to Washington in 2000, Peter Boulwate going #4 to Baltimore in 1997, Kevin Hardy going #2 to Jacksonville in 1996, Of course Willie McGinest going #4 in 1994 to the Pats, Trev Alberts going a pick later to the Colts, Marvin Jones going #4 in 1993 to the Jets, Quinten Coryatt #2 to the Colts in 1992, Mike Croel to the Broncos at #4 in 1991, Junior Seau going #5 to the Chargers in 1990, Derrick Thomas #4 to the Chiefs in 1989 and Aundray Bruce actually went #1 in 1988 to the Falcons. That's just over the last 20 yrs, there are more LBs selected in the top 5 going further back.

 

[Deus Irae]

That comment I might agree with but that's only been since 1998, before that LBs were consistently taken in the top 5. I think that's why some are saying that Curry is the best LB prospect to come along in the past decade. Let's look at the past 20 yrs, we have AJ Hawk going #5 to GB in 2006, LaVar Arrington going #2 to Washington in 2000, Peter Boulwate going #4 to Baltimore in 1997, Kevin Hardy going #2 to Jacksonville in 1996, Of course Willie McGinest going #4 in 1994 to the Pats, Trev Alberts going a pick later to the Colts, Marvin Jones going #4 in 1993 to the Jets, Quinten Coryatt #2 to the Colts in 1992, Mike Croel to the Broncos at #4 in 1991, Junior Seau going #5 to the Chargers in 1990, Derrick Thomas #4 to the Chiefs in 1989 and Aundray Bruce actually went #1 in 1988 to the Falcons. That's just over the last 20 yrs, there are more LBs selected in the top 5 going further back.

1.) Salary escalation

2.) Pass rushing ability

 

[mayoclinic]

Nolan Nawrocki from Pro Football Weekly has Curry going #11 to Buffalo in today's latest mock draft (and BJ Raji #12 to Denver:

NFL Draft - NFL draft preview and analysis from Pro Football Weekly

By the draft value chart, 23 + 58 + 89 might get us to around #10 with SF for one of those guys. It might be worth it, though I'm not a big fan of trading up.

 

[BPF]

1.) Salary escalation

2.) Pass rushing ability

Salary have escalated across the board, I don't think LBs have escalated at a higher % when compared to other positions.

 

[Deus Irae]

Salary have escalated across the board, I don't think LBs have escalated at a higher % when compared to other positions.

Exactly.........

 

[VJCPatriot]

I really like Curry as a prospect but I think it's ridiculous to say, well he's better than Mayo when Mayo has already shown us that he is ROTY caliber in the pros and Curry has proven nothing.

If Curry drops to the 8-10 range, then yeah the Pats should consider moving up. However, you are giving up 2 good players in a deep draft to get a very good player (who is not a passrusher) so you have to consider that carefully before making the move. In BB I trust.