Welker 3/06 rumor of the day: Will go to Free Agency

[JackBauer]

For one thing, Edelman is a much better blocker then Welker, so he'd be doing more of that, and less receiving. Also if AH or others is used in the slot, Edelman would be used less. Would you Welkerites ignore those details so you could conclude the move was a failure? I'm quite sure of it.

I'm afraid I don't understand that point you're attempting to make. You say Edelman could carry the load as a slot WR, while noting on some basis or other that Edelman would spend more time blocking...thus implicitly conceding that, in fact, Edelman could NOT shoulder the load.

Way too much sentiment in this thread. You sure you guys understand the way BB operates?

Yes. He has shown on a couple of occasions the propensity to let talent walk without having an adequate backup plan; a tendency that has come back to bite the team squarely in the ass.

I've maintained all along that, rightly or wrongly, Welker will not be back. That doesn't change the fact that the blithe assumptions proffered by some with respect to his potential replacements are laughable on their face.

 

[bagwell368]

Doesn't matter if you're talking about the slot -- it's still a lousy point you're making. And if you want people to interpret your posts correctly, maybe you should attempt to express yourself more clearly.

The post was very clear. I said slot and I said Welker. It is you that either cannot read or has such a bug up your butt about Welker that you reacted before you understood what I wrote. It's on you Jack.

Sadly for me? I don't have a dog in this fight; I only respond when I see crappy arguments being made. And there's little to suggest Cruz will be better than Welker in the next two years.

Perhaps you should look at some games, and stop using stat sheets for your arguments. You might want to factor in that Cruz is 5.5 years younger than Welker.

 

[JackBauer]

The post was very clear. I said slot and I said Welker. It is you that either cannot read or has such a bug up your butt about Welker that you reacted before you understood what I wrote. It's on you Jack.

You responded to a post I made toward another poster thusly:

Edelman and AH and cheaper FA or draft choice could carry the load and have money left to spare.

If the Pats want high end, then there is always Cruz who I would pay more than Welker on a 5 year deal in a heartbeat.

As I said, don't blame your inability to communicate clearly on me.

Regardless, the WR corps is a red herring. Your argument as articulated above is still lousy.

Perhaps you should look at some games, and stop using stat sheets for your arguments. You might want to factor in that Cruz is 5.5 years younger than Welker.

I have, and do. Welker > Cruz.

 

[bagwell368]

I'm afraid I don't understand that point you're attempting to make. You say Edelman could carry the load as a slot WR, while noting on some basis or other that Edelman would spend more time blocking...this implicitly conceding that, in fact, Edelman could NOT shoulder the load.

You claim you can read? Interesting conceit. The role will change if Edelman is the primary slot, or even part time slot if Welker leaves. To assume any player is a dead on match in replacing another player, in particular in a scheme as complex as what the Pats do to make players successful actually indicates a mind not tuned to the intricate nature of how things are done in Foxboro.

Yes. He has shown on a couple of occasions the propensity to let talent walk without having an adequate backup plan; a tendency that has come back to bite the team squarely in the ass.

Please list all the mistakes BB has made in letting FA's walk, then list all the correct choices he has made. BB has been brilliant in a league with a strict cap, and his results demonstrate that aptly.

I've maintained all along that, rightly or wrongly, Welker will not be back. That doesn't change the fact that the blithe assumptions proffered by some with respect to his potential replacements are laughable on their face.

I believe the odds of Welker being back are a bit better than 50/50. I'd like him back at the right price, and not at a higher one.

Blithe assumptions are always open to being wrong. Nobody suggests that replacing Welker is a chore that contains no difficulties. Deciding how much longer he has, and what that will cost is the first set of issues. Figuring out a counter strategy with greater return and/or less risk is the next step.

 

[bagwell368]

YWelker > Cruz.

Fine. I'll take Cruz career output vs Welker anytime - going forward. Assuming a normal injury curve for both, that's an easy win for Cruz.

 

[patfanken]

Edelman's been in the league for 4 years. He's got a grand total of 69 receptions. Blithely claiming that he can replace 70% of Welker's production is wild speculation, at best.

As for Vollmer being more important than Welker, that's just insane talk.

Once again DI deigns to bless us mere mortals with pontifications from on high.

I guess you also would have dismissed Troy Brown in a similar manner, considering he only had about 35 receptions in his first four years with the Pats. And as for an OT being more or less important than a WR, it is not insane at all. The fact is that there are a lot more humans roaming the earth that are athletic and 5'11/200lbs, than are althletiic and 6'5 and 320.

There is.certainly qa case that can be made for both sides. However to blithely state that either side is "insane" is myopic at best, and pure pomposity at worst.'

 

[JackBauer]

You claim you can read? Interesting conceit. The role will change if Edelman is the primary slot, or even part time slot if Welker leaves. To assume any player is a dead on match in replacing another player, in particular in a scheme as complex as what the Pats do to make players successful actually indicates a mind not tuned to the intricate nature of how things are done in Foxboro.

Yes, that's right. You got me. I'm not attuned to "the intricate nature of how things are done in Foxboro."

Silly me. By all means, replace Welker with Edelman/AH and watch the offense soar.

Please list all the mistakes BB has made in letting FA's walk, then list all the correct choices he has made. BB has been brilliant in a league with a strict cap, and his results demonstrate that aptly.

Right. Because asserting BB has made more poor decisions than good decisions is an argument precisely no one is making.

 

[JackBauer]

Fine. I'll take Cruz career output vs Welker anytime - going forward. Assuming a normal injury curve for both, that's an easy win for Cruz.

You might want to answer Miguel's question, instead of ignoring it and pretending it doesn't factor into the decision.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Julian Edelman's career high in receiving yards is 359...in 2009

So you expect us to believe he can be relied upon to essentially triple that total, despite his inability to be consistent or stay healthy up to this point?

What could possibly go wrong??

With welker getting most of the playing time, edelman has found a nice spot on the bench.....however given the opportunity he could have much better stats.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Fine. I'll take Cruz career output vs Welker anytime - going forward. Assuming a normal injury curve for both, that's an easy win for Cruz.

Cruz is 25/26 and is much more athletically gifted than welker.

 

[JackBauer]

With welker getting most of the playing time, edelman has found a nice spot on the bench.....however given the opportunity he could have much better stats.

I think this assumes facts not in evidence.

Every bench player on the team could match the respective starter's production, given the opportunity. But there's no reason, really, for confidence to expect they will.

 

[Nikolai]

I think this assumes facts not in evidence.

Every bench player on the team could match the respective starter's production, given the opportunity. But there's no reason, really, for confidence to expect they will.

That and Edelman could have an opportunity to match Welker's stats if he could stay healthy.

 

[JackBauer]

That and Edelman could have an opportunity to match Welker's stats if he could stay healthy.

That's a big part of it. I actually like Edelman quite a bit, but I don't think he'll ever be more than a WR3. And I really don't think he'll be able to stay on the field for 16 games as a starter.

 

[patfanken]

That's a big part of it. I actually like Edelman quite a bit, but I don't think he'll ever be more than a WR3. And I really don't think he'll be able to stay on the field for 16 games as a starter.

You could be absolutely right, Jack. But given the TroyBrown example,and the fact he's only been playing WR 4 years give me more hope that he could bee more than a special teams guy who is also an "extra" WR.

What sticks most in my mind is the impression that he almost never fails to touch the ball.without marking at least one person miss. Hopefully this is the season he becomes a more polished route runner and he can remain healthy....and he does all this for the Pats.

There is no. Doubt that if he'd remained healthy he.would have been the Pats most explosive WR. Whether he would have been one of the most "effective" ones would have been interesting to see. in the long run, perhaps it was the for the best as now it will be Less expensive to keep him, than if he'd managed something like 600+ yards as the #3 WR

 

[DocHoliday]

You could be absolutely right, Jack. But given the TroyBrown example,and the fact he's only been playing WR 4 years give me more hope that he could bee more than a special teams guy who is also an "extra" WR.

What sticks most in my mind is the impression that he almost never fails to touch the ball.without marking at least one person miss. Hopefully this is the season he becomes a more polished route runner and he can remain healthy....and he does all this for the Pats.

There is no. Doubt that if he'd remained healthy he.would have been the Pats most explosive WR. Whether he would have been one of the most "effective" ones would have been interesting to see. in the long run, perhaps it was the for the best as now it will be Less expensive to keep him, than if he'd managed something like 600+ yards as the #3 WR

I actually have pretty high hopes. He's not a ticky tacky injury type of guy. Most of his injuries have been breaks, not tears and strange hamstring injuries or soreness type stuff. With some luck it's very likely he'll play a full 16.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

There have been dozens of wide receivers on the Patriots since 2000.

How many of them has Brady made into good receivers?
Why has not Brady made all of them into good receivers?

If anything and I'm a day zero Brady's Lady, TFB could be criticized for not being able or unwilling to work with a plethora of receivers, some as FA acquisitions did well with prior teams. Tom seemingly has a focused narrow range where he expects his receivers to fit in. It seems like in his early years say 2007, he was able to work with a higher % of receiver candidates than since. Arguing against this is how quickly the young TEs adapted to working with Tom.

Uh, oh. I just argued with myself and lost.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

BTW what's all this Edelman vs Welker stuff?

Welker at 5 years for $40M with $17.5M guaranteed

vs

Edelman at 3 years for $5.25M with $3M guaranteed


Since BB thinks in dollars & output - the equation could essentially be:

Edelman+Vollmer vs Welker
or
Edelman+Jennings vs Welker (and ~$1.5M worth of some other player)



Fact is, this isn't cut and dried and there is a large chance that Welker is not a slam dunk to be here with some sentimental sweet kind contract that magically makes up for what a meanie BB has been to Welker. Really - what is this? Pre school for the politically correct?

Screw that. Just win baby.

You just outlined the decision matrix that the Pats are probably using. Once Welker's cost substantively exceeds an amount where they could instead sign 2 players that together would solve problems equal or greater in need, they stop offering $.

 

[Deus Irae]

If anything and I'm a day zero Brady's Lady, TFB could be criticized for not being able or unwilling to work with a plethora of receivers, some as FA acquisitions did well with prior teams. Tom seemingly has a focused narrow range where he expects his receivers to fit in. It seems like in his early years say 2007, he was able to work with a higher % of receiver candidates than since. Arguing against this is how quickly the young TEs adapted to working with Tom.

Uh, oh. I just argued with myself and lost.

Your response to yourself is an easy one:


"Ok, then name all the receivers who struggled in NE but went on to considerably bigger and better things without Brady."

 

[BradyManny]

If anything and I'm a day zero Brady's Lady, TFB could be criticized for not being able or unwilling to work with a plethora of receivers, some as FA acquisitions did well with prior teams. Tom seemingly has a focused narrow range where he expects his receivers to fit in. It seems like in his early years say 2007, he was able to work with a higher % of receiver candidates than since. Arguing against this is how quickly the young TEs adapted to working with Tom.

Uh, oh. I just argued with myself and lost.

My rebuttal to this is upthread - but basically, name me the receiver on the Patriots that Brady had trouble working with that went on to bigger and better things elsewhere.

C. Jackson - out of the league.
Ocho - out of the league.
Moss - now a vet min player who can't stick with a team.
Galloway - had 12 more catches before retiring
Aiken - only had one more catch as a receiver in his illustrious career
Caldwell - only started one more game as a pro
Tate - done nothing since, was more productive as a Patriot
Price - two catches since leaving the Pats

The only guy who I think will go down as "the one who got away" is Tiquan Underwood, who has some real upside in him. But Brady liked him and I don't know why we cut him so flippantly.

 

[Miguel]

There is zero credence to the argument to Welker being a product of Brady. He excelled with Cassel, and he was productive with Miami - productive enough for Belichick to see he would thrive here.

No one gets open like Wes Welker, and anyone who says he won't be productive elsewhere is nuts.

Exactly

That said, if your point is that Brady isn't making receivers better, I have to disagree there.

That is not my point. My point is that Welker has excelled and should be considered the reason for doing so.

If one were to describe the skills of a wide receivers
(separation skills, ball skills, route-running, durability, blocking, speed, quickness, football intelligence, toughness) what above-average skills does Welker have? I think several. If I am correct, then I see no reason why Welker could not replicate his success with the Patriots elsewhere.