From 2007 on wards, all our playoff losses have been because the offense has not been able to execute in critical situations. Both out superbowl losses, one year we score 14, then next time we score 17, this year in Denver we score 18, last year against the Ravens we barely score 13. The defense usually did enough to keep the team in games, and the offense never got up enough, or sustained drives long enough to keep out defense from fatiguing by the 4th quarter.
The problem has always been offense, especially when 4 man rushes are able to break down the offensive line. We have always had a decent OL, and when Brady has time he can dissect most defenses. I had real hope this year especially when the running game was so potent at the end. The offense looked so much better when Gronkowski was back for those few games.
That being said, there were some rumblings/rumors here in Arizona, about Fitzgerald being a trade prospect. He is due 18 million next year and unless he is willing to renegotiate, he will be delt. Likely whatever team that gets him will not give up a lot of assets because of the large salary (they would then have to restructure and give him the money upfront so the cap hit would be limited). For a 1st round pick I would jump on that. There were also some rumblings about Anquan Boldin being available, and pairing him up with Fitzgerald for a year (with Brady at the helm) would probably be as potent an offense as any team. They are both tough physical WR that would match up with any secondary (and if Gronk would come back healthy the sky's the limit).
The last time the Pats were in a similar situation (loosing to Indy in 2006), BB made the deal for Moss, got Stallworth, and off to the races they went.
I think if Mayo, Kelley, Wilfork, all return healthy, our run D will be great. Talib or equivalent is all we need in the secondary and we will be good enough.
It's so hard to tell if the problem is the offense or defense, historically. Consider all 8 playoff losses since their last SB victory (the year indicates the regular season year, not the actual date of the playoff loss): (Note, I'm counting defensive and special teams points scored for the offense, just to make this easier)
2005 - 27-13 at Denver
- Offense averaged 23.7 ppg, 387.6 ypg, and 1.4 TO/g
- Offense produced 13 points, 420 yards, and 5 turnovers
- Defense averaged 21.1 ppg, 330 ypg, and 1.1 TO/g
- Defense allowed 27 points, 286 yards, and 1 turnover
2006 - 38-34 at Indianapolis
- Offense averaged 24.1 ppg, 336.0 ypg, and 1.7 TO/g
- Offense produced 34 points, 319 yards, and 1 turnover
- Defense averaged 14.8 ppg, 294.0 ypg, and 2.0 TO/g
- Defense allowed 38 points, 455 yards, and 1 turnover
2007 - 17-14 vs NY Giants
- Offense averaged 36.8 ppg, 411.0 ypg, and 0.9 TO/g
- Offense produced 14 points, 274 yards, and 1 turnover
- Defense averaged 17.1 ppg, 288.0 ypg, and 1.9 TO/g
- Defense allowed 17 points, 338 yards, and 1 turnover
2009 - 33-14 vs Baltimore
- Offense averaged 26.7 ppg, 397.0 ypg, and 1.4 TO/g
- Offense produced 13 points, 196 yards, and 4 turnovers
- Defense averaged 17.8 ppg, 320.0 ypg, and 1.8 TO/g
- Defense allowed 33 points, 268 yards, and 2 turnovers
2010 - 28-21 vs NY Jets
- Offense averaged 32.4 ppg, 364.0 ypg, and 0.6 TO/g
- Offense produced 21 points, 372 yards, and 1 turnover
- Defense averaged 19.6 ppg, 367.0 ypg, and 2.4 TO/g
- Defense allowed 28 points, 314 yards, and 0 turnovers
2011 - 21-17 vs NY Giants
- Offense averaged 32.1 ppg, 428.0 ypg, and 1.1 TO/g
- Offense produced 17 points, 349 yards, and 1 turnover
- Defense averaged 21.4 ppg, 411.0 ypg, and 2.1 TO/g
- Defense allowed 21 points, 396 yards, and 0 turnovers
2012 - 28-13 vs Baltimore
- Offense averaged 34.8 ppg, 428.0 ypg, and 1.0 TO/g
- Offense produced 13 points, 428 yards, and 3 turnovers
- Defense averaged 20.7 ppg, 373.0 ypg, and 2.6 TO/g
- Defense allowed 28 points, 356 yards, and 0 turnovers
2013 - 26-16 at Denver
- Offense averaged 27.8 ppg, 385.0 ypg, and 1.3 TO/g
- Offense produced 16 points, 320 yards, and 0 turnovers
- Defense averaged 21.1 ppg, 373.0 ypg, and 1.8 TO/g
- Defense allowed 26 points, 507 yards, and 0 turnovers
Now, not taking into account weather or quality of opponent, it seems to me that the following observations can be made:
(1) The offense woefully underperforms compared to season averages, especially in the area of points scored.
(2) The offense turns the ball over far more than they normally do.
(3) The defense also gives up significantly more points than they do in the regular season.
(4) The defense gets far fewer turnovers than in the regular season. In fact, in their last four playoff losses, the Patriots, who averaged 2.2 takeaways per game during those four seasons, have precisely ZERO takeaways in the last four playoff losses.
That's really the crippling thing. Turnovers.
Offense:
- Averaged 1.2 giveaways per game during those 8 regular seasons.
- Averaged 2.0 giveaways per playoff loss those 8 years.
Defense:
- Averaged 2.0 takeaways per game during those 8 regular seasons.
- Averaged 0.6 takeaways per playoff loss those 8 years.
Bottom line: That's the single biggest key. They're great at taking the ball away during the regular season, which masks some of their defensive deficiencies. But during the last 8 playoff losses, they've just not been able to create game-changing turnovers, and so their D has to get stops and they've just not been able to do it.
But also, their offense, which is so good during the regular season at protecting the football, turns it over at nearly twice the rate during these last 8 playoff losses.
Maybe it's just as simple as that. Maybe it's just as simple as: when they get turnovers and protect the ball, they win, and when they don't get turnovers and protect the ball, they lose.
And given how good a job they do at that during the regular season, I don't know how you could foresee a total reversal of those things during these losses.
