We have #1 seed right now

[supafly]

Hear what you are saying but I think health is the greater concern. Would much rather have the Pats lock up a bye before week #17 and sit a bunch of players against the Bills. Give them 2 full weeks off even if that costs the #1 seed. Couple of other points:

- Having the #1 seed may more of a liability this year. Assuming PIT/BAL are #5 seed, they could be the lowest remaining seed after wildcard weekend. Would be much better to play wounded Texans or inconsistent Raiders (warm weather teams with a longer trip) and let PIT/BAL beat each other up in the divisionals.

- The Pats last 2 games are at home. Even with a #2 seed, the Pats wouldn't see an airport for over a month after the Denver game.

Get this team relatively healthy/rested and they will be a bear in the playoffs. What about the defense? They are currently playing without 3 starters in the back 7...so of course the results are going to be sketchy. Get McCourty, Chung and Spikes back to 100% health (side benefit of resting up for multiple weeks) and the defense will look much different. Giving Wilfork a play or 2 off sometime might be advisable as well.

Quick aside...do people (and by "people" I mean Dilfer) realize that the top 5 DBs on the Pats depth chart week #1 were McCourty, Dowling, Chung, Barrett and Bodden? Take any other team and remove their top 5 DBs and let me know if their secondary gets picked on. Winning games with Patch Adams, a QB-turned-WR-turned-CB and a random Ventrone covering receivers is pretty amazing if you ask me.

All great points.

I agree that I would be just fine with a #2, as it may better suit us due to the matchups.

If that's the case though, then I may want PIT as the #1, in case we'd need to go there for the AFCGC--rather than BAL.

Just my opinion though.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

lets keep it that way

 

[supafly]

I meant 5th seed. Sorry.

Who would you rather have as a #1, Rob? (on the premise that we get the #2)

BAL or PIT?

I suppose it won't matter anyway, unless we can get some key defensive guys rested and really continue to gel on BOTH sides of the ball; but it is something to think about.

I think I'd rather have PIT as a #1 than have to go to BAL, considering that we'd be lucky/good enough to make it that far.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Texans could start Matt Cassel and still win their remaining games with their D and running game. It's gonna be tough for the Pats to get a 1 or 2 seed.

Stealers schedule has been pathetic all season. biggest dirty little secret in the NFL.

Disgusting.

 

[Rob0729]

Who would you rather have as a #1, Rob? (on the premise that we get the #2)

BAL or PIT?

I suppose it won't matter anyway, unless we can get some key defensive guys rested and really continue to gel on BOTH sides of the ball; but it is something to think about.

I think I'd rather have PIT as a #1 than have to go to BAL, considering that we'd be lucky/good enough to make it that far.

Even though the Steelers figured out the Pats this one time, I still like the Pats' chances against them based on their history. I would rather have an AFC Championship game in Pittsburgh than Baltimore. Although I did read somewhere today that the Ravens' offense has struggled against every 4-3 defense they have faced this year. It might be a better match up.

 

[supafly]

Even though the Steelers figured out the Pats this one time, I still like the Pats' chances against them based on their history. I would rather have an AFC Championship game in Pittsburgh than Baltimore. Although I did read somewhere today that the Ravens' offense has struggled against every 4-3 defense they have faced this year. It might be a better match up.

Yes, I saw the numbers compared to the Ravens facing 3-4's and 4-3's, and it was pleasantly alarming. On that note though, I think I would rather see them play PIT also.

When you think about it, I really believe that the Steelers showed their entire hand in this past matchup. I don't know if they could really come up with any new wrinkles that would be of significance. That, and the fact that PIT played amazingly well combined with the Pats playing amazingly poorly, yet the score was still a one score game at the end.

I have my doubts for going to Baltimore if the AFCCG is on the line, to be honest. I think they have the upper hand in many areas, and are better than PIT at many things. Either way, it'd be a helluva tough game.

 

[brdmaverick]

According to: PLAYOFFRACE, we are the #1 seed over Texans, based on strength of victory percentage.

Yes, very interesting that our strength of victory provides the current tie breaker b/c with the remaining schedule that we have, that will NOT last. Hopefully the harder schedules that the Ravens, Texans, and Steelers have will sprinkle a few losses into their records.

 

[QB12]

And now a second site has us as the 1 seed:

AFC Playoff Picture

 

[Sean Pa Patriot]

i think if we dont play welll on offense like we did in the first half... then all these games will be tough... but next week at philly and at denver , where we always have problems, are the 2 remaining tough games... a loss this weekend wont damage number 1 seed hopes because we only have 2 losses in the confrence.. i think i dont care if its a 1 or 2 i just want to them to have a bye week... if this team is playing on wild card weekend, it will be tough for them to go to the afc title game...

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

What a difference a couple of weeks make. I guess all we had to do was punch the Jets in the nose to make the media start to believe in us again (though I like the underdog role better, but that ship sailed away some time ago). Of course, the Jets are now considered an average team (but one that was built specifically to try and stop the Patriots).

I think this team is really starting to come together and BB has to be proud of his team. Now, just need to get guys healthy and some reps t o make sure they are at game speed. anything less than 12-4 would be disappoining but I don't see us missing the post season and I like this team even if it has to be on the road.

 

[BlueThunder]

ESPN Playoffs machine-

In all scenarios except one - Defense - The Pats make the playoffs as #1 or #2 seed....

Will be interesting how it plays out as the next 6 games unfold....

Jets only found in one scenario as a low seed.....

2011 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

 

[37Harrison]

Re: ESPN Playoffs machine-

In all scenarios except one - Defense - The Pats make the playoffs as #1 or #2 seed....

Will be interesting how it plays out as the next 6 games unfold....

Jets only found in one scenario as a low seed.....

2011 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

Also, interesting to note... the same scenario (defense) in which the Pats don't make the playoffs, the Packers make it as the #6 seed at 10-6. Which means the Packers don't win one more game the rest of the way.

These rankings are stupid.

 

[everlong]

Re: ESPN Playoffs machine-

You can also pick the individual games.

Interestingly the Jets can go 5-1 and as long as the Bengals beat the Cardinals at home and the Rams on the road which they should and then find a way to beat one of Houston (home), Baltimore (home) and Pitt (away) the Jets are out. That's also contingent on Baltimore and Pitt going no worse than 3-2 but I don't see that as an issue.

The other scenario if the Bengals fade is both Denver and the Raiders finishing at 10-6 to keep them out.

 

[jmt57]

Re: ESPN Playoffs machine-

2011 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios - ESPN

It's a fun exercise, but overly simplistic in my opinion. You can choose one, and only one of six criteria to predict winners in all of the remaining games:

• team with better current winning percentage wins
• home team wins
• road team wins
• team with higher offensive rank (yards) wins
• team with higher defensive rank (yards) wins
• team with higher power ranking wins

It would be nice if you could take those criteria, add a few more (e.g., turnover ratio; points scored; points allowed; point differential; penalty yard rankings; red zone offense; red zone defense etc.) and then allow the user to assign a percentage to each. For example one might give 10% to home team, 20% to turnover differential, 20% to point differential, 30% to W-L record, etc.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

And now a second site has us as the 1 seed:

AFC Playoff Picture

Right now we have the #1 seed. But the season isn't ending today.

That same site also points out that we don't control our own destiny. If both us and the Raven win out, the Ravens have the number one seed.

 

[PatsGirl2011]

I don't think its a big deal being the 1 or 2 seed because as history has shown, it does not matter in terms of the AFC title game. However, I think its a big deal in regards to the bye..The less this team plays, the better!

 

[supafly]

Right now we have the #1 seed. But the season isn't ending today.

That same site also points out that we don't control our own destiny. If both us and the Raven win out, the Ravens have the number one seed.

Exactly, and let's not forget about Pittsburgh either, who has the same record and currently holds the tiebreaker over us too.

So in all reality, we'd need to not only:

1. Run the table, winning every game
2. Have Baltimore lose at least once
3. Have Pittsburgh lose at least once
4. Likely have Houston lose at least once too, since they'd probably gain the better opponents' winning percentage

Seeing as how ALL of these scenarios would need to play out, I think this whole thread is pretty much a joke at the moment.

Certainly no disrespect intended to the OP, or anyone else who is excited, as that is not the point. I love the enthusiasm and the aspect of being optimistic. I just don't see it as a very realistic possibility, at least with almost 1/2 a season to be played.

I am hoping for the #2, which is much more likely. The question remains, who will we be pushing for to be the #1? In all likelihood, it probably doesn't matter to much, as it will be very tough no matter what.

 

[DaBruinz]

Texans could start Matt Cassel and still win their remaining games with their D and running game. It's gonna be tough for the Pats to get a 1 or 2 seed.

Stealers schedule has been pathetic all season. biggest dirty little secret in the NFL.

Disgusting.

When people talk like this, it becomes patently clear they don't understand how the scheduling has worked. The schedule was set years in advance for 14 of the 16 games. It's been on the same rotation since 2002.

Just because the teams that the Steelers have played haven't lived up to their potential doesn't mean that the league purposely game the Steelers and easy schedule..

 

[juny]

Everyone should be rooting for the Niners this Thursday.

I messed with ESPN's playoffs simulator and could not get the Pats to overtake the Ravens if they end up with the same record. I guess the SOV gap is too big.

I know there is a whole lot of games left, but it was fun messing with the different scenarios.

 

[D-Money]

I give the niners a good chance to win on thursday.Alex Smith has surprised alot of people this year.