Tom Brady - Projecting the Remaining Years

[Satchboogie3]

And just to put an actual example:
15 of 20 for 225, 2TD, 1 pick is a 124.0 rating.
40 of 60 for 400, 6TD, 0 picks is a 119.0 rating.

Not only is it insanely difficult to be successful and win when forced to throw 60 times, but score 28 more points, with less turnovers and lower rating. Yeah, QB rating is complete and utter junk.

 

[ivanvamp]

Qb Rating is really flawed, it's a tool, but shouldn't be the thing you point to and go "see, he's (declining, improving, bad, etc etc)". If you don't believe, just look at Brady's QB rating in the Superbowl.

In fact, his 95 QB rating in the Superbowl surprised me so much that I played around with the rating calculator. Believe it or not, but Brady could have thrown for 8 TDs and 0 INTs, with the rest of his stat line the same, and STILL had a lower QB rating than Ryan... It's junk.

QB rating doesn't take into account decision making, such as taking horrible sacks, not throwing the ball away when you should, handing off the ball for a rushing TD or even rushing it in yourself. I agree that team offense needs to be greatly factored into evaluating a QB because at the end of the day, not only is that the ONLY thing that matters, but a team does what is in the best interest of winning, NOT piling up stats. If running the ball makes more sense situationally, Brady will hand it off.

Finally, efficiency is great, but it doesn't give all that much information. For instance, you could have a game where it's heavy run game with a bit of play action, so you end up with a super efficient game and scoring wasn't really a problem. QB rating would look stellar. But then you play a game against a good defense, where you can't run the ball, at all. And they take away the middle of the field and deep stuff. So you have to dink and dunk and work to get the yards and score. You may throw twice as many passing TDs, but because of the game plan (that was necessary and led to points and a win) you get heavily 'penalized' in the stats category with efficiency (how can a stat line with more passing TDs and less picks be significantly worse just due to fewer yards per attempt? That's insane. You don't get points or wins with an extra yard or two per pass!).

QB rating is ONLY good to see if a QB was overall good or bad over a large enough sample size. It is completely useless to gain anything more precise than just a 'squint'.

Yes. I've made the point in this very thread that passer rating is good over a large sample size.

 

[Satchboogie3]

Yes. I've made the point in this very thread that passer rating is good over a large sample size.

Good as in 'oh yeah, he's good.' or 'damn he sucks'. I specifically said it's useless to gain anything more precise than that. That include efficiency stats such as yards / attempt, TD or INT %, etc.

 

[deroc5050]

Brady's regimen goes way beyond "eating and sleeping right." If that's all you think it is then it explains why you think he's going to fall off a cliff,

Well all NFL players train hard and in most cases they train and lift harder than Brady. But not all NFL players eat and sleep like Brady. Is there anything else Brady does differently? Does he get blood work once a week to measure his vitals and all the chemcial reactions that are most responsible for staying in top notch condition. And if a reading is off the norm he takes a supplement or eats certain foods to boost whatever biological reading back to high performance mode? lol.. ?

 

[deroc5050]

When judging a QB all that matters are wins, championships, scoring offense, comebacks, 3rd down conversions, fewest chokes and your teammates saying to a man they will fight to the death for you.

QBR, QB rating, passing efficiency, comp % is all crap

I wouldn't discount stats completely. We would notice if Brady had an 85 passer rating though and as fans we would all be saying he is getting older now.

I am not so concerned how many TD's he throws going forward but I think we can count on about 30 TD's and less than 10 INTs going forward. I will be looking at the number of picks he throws as a major indicator that he is starting to slip.

 

[pheenix11]

eating and sleeping right can go a long way. But I don't think it can halt the aging process unless there is something else going on that we don't know. Injuries, body breaking down, longer recovery times... these things dont magically get better after you hit 40.

IMO Brady was at his best last year, maybe not stat wise but last year Brady added a better touch pass to his game. It was already really great but last year it was even better.

I also think he's faster now than when he came out of college.

 

[deroc5050]

I also think he's faster now than when he came out of college.

Seeing as I was faster than Brady coming out of College I am not surprised that he could add a little extra speed. He even looks a little faster out there. Brady looks different from his rookie year by a lot. And this is the first year where I actually noticed he starting to age in his face.

If he plays for 4 - 5 more years his nickname in the locker room will be gramps.

 

[Double TE]

If you watch Kung Fu movies all the master's are older looking but have ridiculous speed and skills. Maybe Brady has some Shaolin training in him? If so then as he ages he will only get better and quicker. You saw a sample of that with the 15 yard scramble vs the uber fast Falcons D.

Brady is a Shaolin Monk Master. He will play as long as he wants to.

 

[pheenix11]

Can't wait till next year when Brady gets suspended for suspected PED use. I'm sure they'll link him with Mrs Manning's HGH somehow. Either that or declare avocado a PED.

 

[Double TE]

Gisele may be a PED? He he

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Can't wait till next year when Brady gets suspended for suspected PED use. I'm sure they'll link him with Mrs Manning's HGH somehow. Either that or declare avocado a PED.

And if Brady continues to play well as he ages you know that the owners will put increasing pressure on Goodell to try to frame Brady on some PED thing.

 

[pheenix11]

Gisele may be a PED? He he

That weakens the knees!

 

[CutiePie]

tom f'n brady will let father time know when he is ready to age

 

[RayRay]

Ask yourself this question......
Did any of those qb's who declined later in their careers wear RECOVERY PAJAMAS tho?





Exactly.

 

[mikey m]

Ask yourself this question......
Did any of those qb's who declined later in their careers wear RECOVERY PAJAMAS tho?





Exactly.

Breaking: NFL to Launch Full Investigation into Tom Brady's Use of Performance Enhancing Pajamas (referred to as PEPs going forward)

 

[RobertWeathers]

I wouldn't discount stats completely. We would notice if Brady had an 85 passer rating though and as fans we would all be saying he is getting older now.

I am not so concerned how many TD's he throws going forward but I think we can count on about 30 TD's and less than 10 INTs going forward. I will be looking at the number of picks he throws as a major indicator that he is starting to slip.

Stats are one way of measuring a QBs play for sure but if we are stack ranking which stats are the most important imo what I've mentioned supercedes stats and other efficiency-related metrics.

 

[ivanvamp]

Good as in 'oh yeah, he's good.' or 'damn he sucks'. I specifically said it's useless to gain anything more precise than that. That include efficiency stats such as yards / attempt, TD or INT %, etc.

There are NO stats that can really tell us the complete story of how a QB plays. If a QB misses a receiver by five yards, what stat tells us whether that miss was on:

- the QB (a bad read or a bad throw),
- the OL (giving up pressure which may or may not have forced the throw),
- the refs, a bad non-call by the ref (holding the WR, thus keeping him from the designed route, but isn't called - that happened against Edelman late in the SB),
- or on the WR (for running a bad route or making a bad read)?

No stat exists to help us determine which issue(s) is to blame for such a bad miss. All we see is an incompletion logged in Brady's stats.

Passer rating takes a bunch of things into account and tries to offer one number to capture overall passing performance. Of course it's not perfect. Not remotely close. But there is no single stat that's better. If there is, I'd like to see it. But it's really only useful over larger sample sizes.

*Note: Of course it doesn't take into account tons of other things. For example, if a QBs stats are accumulated in total garbage time, the final stat line may look good, but his performance really wasn't. Or if a QB is getting crushed all day long and somehow stands in there and manages an 85 passer rating for the day, that actually might be a superlative performance on that day.

 

[sb1]

There are NO stats that can really tell us the complete story of how a QB plays. If a QB misses a receiver by five yards, what stat tells us whether that miss was on:

- the QB (a bad read or a bad throw),
- the OL (giving up pressure which may or may not have forced the throw),
- the refs, a bad non-call by the ref (holding the WR, thus keeping him from the designed route, but isn't called - that happened against Edelman late in the SB),
- or on the WR (for running a bad route or making a bad read)?

No stat exists to help us determine which issue(s) is to blame for such a bad miss. All we see is an incompletion logged in Brady's stats.

Passer rating takes a bunch of things into account and tries to offer one number to capture overall passing performance. Of course it's not perfect. Not remotely close. But there is no single stat that's better. If there is, I'd like to see it. But it's really only useful over larger sample sizes.

*Note: Of course it doesn't take into account tons of other things. For example, if a QBs stats are accumulated in total garbage time, the final stat line may look good, but his performance really wasn't. Or if a QB is getting crushed all day long and somehow stands in there and manages an 85 passer rating for the day, that actually might be a superlative performance on that day.

Yep. It's funny that football is the only pure team sport out of the big 4. Notice how some of these advanced stats like those from SABR and starting to show up in hockey are absent in football.

I think passer rating is one way to tell the story of a QB's performance but it's better used with other stats instead of by itself.

 

[ivanvamp]

Yep. It's funny that football is the only pure team sport out of the big 4. Notice how some of these advanced stats like those from SABR and starting to show up in hockey are absent in football.

I think passer rating is one way to tell the story of a QB's performance but it's better used with other stats instead of by itself.

I agree. Which, of course, is why I used other stats in my OP.

But even a collection of stats doesn't really tell you what's going on. Again, go back to the example I just gave. What collection of stats tells you, really, how a QB played in a given game?

Suppose, on the Pats' last TD in regulation, that when Brady hit White for a pass that White took down to the one yard line, that White had managed to break the tackle and score (like he did in OT). That would have counted as a TD for Brady, and would have made his final stat line (assuming everything else subsequently happened the same way) different.

From: 43-62 (69.4%), 466 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 95.2 rating
To: 43-62 (69.4%), 467 yds, 3 td, 1 int, 100.7 rating

So White breaking that one tackle (which would have been completely HIS effort, not Brady's), would have improved Brady's passer rating by 5.5 points.

So because he didn't, does that mean that Brady *really* played 5.5 passer rating points worse? No, of course not.

But here's the thing. None of us here can really evaluate QB play without knowing a million variables. We do not know what play was originally called. We do not know whether the QB checked off to a different play, and if he did, if it was a good decision. We don't know if a WR ran a bad route or a QB made a bad read. We don't really know the different responsibilities on any given play. We don't know if a QB is ill or healthy. The same stat line put up by a guy with an aching shoulder and a 103 degree temperature is WAY more impressive than a guy who is perfectly healthy, and often we don't know ANY of this information.

All we really have is the "eye test" - but that is SO uninformed. And, of course, stats. Over larger sample sizes, stats usually do a decent job capturing performance, as those other variables tend to sort themselves out over enough time. So as fans, stats are our best gauge of what's really happening.

 

[1960Pats]

Right on the money. My understanding is that both Brees and Rodgers are adopting Brady's approach to training. I doubt anyone would go to the lengths Brady does, right down to his pajamas, but the emphasis on core, pliability, yoga, and resistance bands over weights is something many QB's are going to move to, and we can expect them to last longer if they do the other work ( film and mechanics) that Brady does.

Too bad PEDton didn't adopt the TB12 methods early in his career. He could have had 12 one and done playoffs instead of 'only' 9.