Tom Brady - Projecting the Remaining Years

[Actual Pats Fan]

Too long.
But the part I did read I disagree that 2010-2013 shows a pattern of decline. I think 2010-2012 show frat consistency and 2013 was just a bad year. Pretty sure we can all understand why 2013 was different.

As I've said before, if Tom adjusts his game to suit the reduction in power the next 3-4 years, he can still lead us to championships. Just as he did early in his career.

Hope we don't have to dig up Mo Lewis to knock some sense into BB in case coach starts to out-think himself.

Finally, I'm upset that Ian closed that wonderful thread about Jimmy G being better than Tom.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Well the other data point I saw mentioned is that over the past 3 years his strnegth has INCREASED as well as his speed. That is crazy. So I would expect that we will see some decreases in strength prior to a decline. His mental game in terms of seeing the field and D is off the charts and shouldn't decline for another 10 yeasr I will assume his body goes before that.

Whatever his training regimen is, it appears to be working very well. That BTW is part of the legacy he wants to build that we fans are mostly oblivious to. HE believes in the work TB12 is doing to change how athletes train. I think we underestimate how important that is to TB12, that is the post career he is working for.

Remember folks, we do NOT want Tom to think he's 25 years old and hurt his elbow as Bradshaw did.

 

[deroc5050]

The bottom line of your OP is that no QB at the age of 41 or older was really ever good. And pretty much no QB at age 42 has put up good numbers.

So if Brady doesn't drop off and plays at least by his career average numbers, it will basically be unprecedented. I think he will retire at age 43.

But if I could predict the future I would be a rich man.

 

[Ivan]

I PITY THE FOOL



WHO BETS AGAINST TOM BRADY

 

[bruce_w]

The numbers go down from 2010-2013. We can give a million reasons why, but the numbers are the numbers. Those numbers from 2010-2013 fit a typical aging curve for NFL quarterbacks.

The year Jimmy G was drafted. Coincidence? I think not.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I think the next issue that needs to be discussed is the whole "cliff" debate. I find it ridiculous that anyone would think that Brady production would suddenly "fall off a cliff" when his "support system" of his mind, processing skills, and team system would so mitigate against such a precipitous decline.

The thing is, results could "fall off a cliff" without him physically falling off a cliff. It all depends on how close to various thresholds he is (I'm not claiming to know what those are).

I don't think any of us would consider throwing velocity dropping by 3% to be "falling off a cliff". However, what if 3% slower throws mean that DBs can break up outs 50% more often? Then that minor physical decay would lead to a significant drop in production.

Again, those are made up numbers. I don't know what the real numbers are. I'm only saying that football is a game of inches and fractions of seconds (i.e. small margins) and because of that you don't necessarily need a big change in ability to produce a big change in outcome.

And Brady's trained his whole life to certain expectations of what his body can do. He thinks stuff like "ok, if the receiver is going there and the DB is that way, I can get the ball there before the DB can get over". But when he loses some speed it's going to throw off the internal timing he's had for years. Sure, he can know intellectually that he can no longer make Throw X he's been making for years in that situation, but in the heat of battle when he has 2.4 seconds to get rid of the ball it can be easy to revert to his reactions of the previous 17 years. So that's another way a small dropoff in ability can be magnified with respect to results.

I'm not making predictions as to when this will happen. Only that I believe he (or any other QB) doesn't have to fall to pieces physically to have significant downgrades in production.

 

[ivanvamp]

The bottom line of your OP is that no QB at the age of 41 or older was really ever good. And pretty much no QB at age 42 has put up good numbers.

So if Brady doesn't drop off and plays at least by his career average numbers, it will basically be unprecedented. I think he will retire at age 43.

But if I could predict the future I would be a rich man.

The argument that Brady will get lots worse is based on the fact that there's basically never been an NFL QB that has been good in his 40s.

The argument that Brady will continue to play at an elite or very high level is based on the fact that Brady is, for a variety of reasons, pretty unique and unlike other NFL QBs.

Personally, I think he will be really, really good for two more years, and then at age 42 he will likely play at a level similar to his early career, which is still a league-average starting NFL QB level. And then at age 43 he will be a little worse and he may decide to hang it up then, or he may try to squeeze one more year out of his career, and I think even then he'll be a pretty useful QB, but no longer *TOM BRADY*. And then, after his age 43 or 44 season, hang them up.

Which would be an unprecedented level of success for a player his age.

 

[wolverinejoe80]

how about till 45? 45 is a good number. brady can do it.

 

[bbobbo]

I PITY THE FOOL



WHO BETS AGAINST TOM BRADY

if that fool is genie bouchard, i don't pity her. one bit.

 

[bbobbo]

continued....





genie in SI:

 

[pheenix11]

When did he start seriously adhering to his new regimen with Guerrero? That may explain the halting of the decline and getting better again.

The guy could really be onto something. I'd laugh my ass off if he plays until he's like 45 and then makes even more money after retirement showing others how to take care of themselves.

 

[deroc5050]

When did he start seriously adhering to his new regimen with Guerrero? That may explain the halting of the decline and getting better again.

The guy could really be onto something. I'd laugh my ass off if he plays until he's like 45 and then makes even more money after retirement showing others how to take care of themselves.

eating and sleeping right can go a long way. But I don't think it can halt the aging process unless there is something else going on that we don't know. Injuries, body breaking down, longer recovery times... these things dont magically get better after you hit 40.

IMO Brady was at his best last year, maybe not stat wise but last year Brady added a better touch pass to his game. It was already really great but last year it was even better.

 

[Ivan]

When did he start seriously adhering to his new regimen with Guerrero? That may explain the halting of the decline and getting better again.

The guy could really be onto something. I'd laugh my ass off if he plays until he's like 45 and then makes even more money after retirement showing others how to take care of themselves.

I think Brady started with Guerrero after his knee surgery debacle, he turned his back on western medicine and if I'm not mistaken western philosophy. And I do believe that all of the training and his approach since then will give him the extra years in the field and allow him to market TB12 and their products for years and years after he retires. Everyone betting on Kellerman's Cliff is welcome to do so, I'll take Brady every time.

And my date with Genie was awesome, we have been inseparable ever since.

 

[Ivan]

eating and sleeping right can go a long way. But I don't think it can halt the aging process unless there is something else going on that we don't know. Injuries, body breaking down, longer recovery times... these things dont magically get better after you hit 40.

IMO Brady was at his best last year, maybe not stat wise but last year Brady added a better touch pass to his game. It was already really great but last year it was even better.

Brady's regimen goes way beyond "eating and sleeping right." If that's all you think it is then it explains why you think he's going to fall off a cliff,

 

[IllegalContact]

2017: Pats win SB
2018: Brady retires

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

The thing is, results could "fall off a cliff" without him physically falling off a cliff. It all depends on how close to various thresholds he is (I'm not claiming to know what those are).

I don't think any of us would consider throwing velocity dropping by 3% to be "falling off a cliff". However, what if 3% slower throws mean that DBs can break up outs 50% more often? Then that minor physical decay would lead to a significant drop in production.

Again, those are made up numbers. I don't know what the real numbers are. I'm only saying that football is a game of inches and fractions of seconds (i.e. small margins) and because of that you don't necessarily need a big change in ability to produce a big change in outcome.

And Brady's trained his whole life to certain expectations of what his body can do. He thinks stuff like "ok, if the receiver is going there and the DB is that way, I can get the ball there before the DB can get over". But when he loses some speed it's going to throw off the internal timing he's had for years. Sure, he can know intellectually that he can no longer make Throw X he's been making for years in that situation, but in the heat of battle when he has 2.4 seconds to get rid of the ball it can be easy to revert to his reactions of the previous 17 years. So that's another way a small dropoff in ability can be magnified with respect to results.

I'm not making predictions as to when this will happen. Only that I believe he (or any other QB) doesn't have to fall to pieces physically to have significant downgrades in production.

I'm lost.

What does Cliff Stoudt have to do with Tom?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

In retirement, TB12 will open the TB12 Fertility Experience and sell his seed for $1 million per vial. NY/NJ residents are excluded.

So, grand theft?

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Anyhoo... we've verged into a crazy "I'm positive he plays til 45 here is my proof" vs. "He could fall off a cliff any time here is my proof" argument.

You just can't predict this. There are good reasons to think that he goes for a while longer at high quality, but it hasn't happened yet, so.

It just is what it is. This thread, however, is not without value. It proves that you can get a date with a supermodel if you are a hardcore Pats fan with nothing to lose. I actually think it's a hoax. Otherwise the date guy would be a 40 year old overweight troll in a wifebeater shirt. Basically a younger me, with different fashion choices.

 

[Satchboogie3]

And you could post this again and again and it doesn't make you right, nor prove you are right. You made an assertion that I'm wrong. If you wish to do so, demonstrate it instead of making a claim and not backing it up. I explained what you'd really need to do in order to TRULY understand exactly what's going on.

Something tells me you're not up to that.

Qb Rating is really flawed, it's a tool, but shouldn't be the thing you point to and go "see, he's (declining, improving, bad, etc etc)". If you don't believe, just look at Brady's QB rating in the Superbowl.

In fact, his 95 QB rating in the Superbowl surprised me so much that I played around with the rating calculator. Believe it or not, but Brady could have thrown for 8 TDs and 0 INTs, with the rest of his stat line the same, and STILL had a lower QB rating than Ryan... It's junk.

QB rating doesn't take into account decision making, such as taking horrible sacks, not throwing the ball away when you should, handing off the ball for a rushing TD or even rushing it in yourself. I agree that team offense needs to be greatly factored into evaluating a QB because at the end of the day, not only is that the ONLY thing that matters, but a team does what is in the best interest of winning, NOT piling up stats. If running the ball makes more sense situationally, Brady will hand it off.

Finally, efficiency is great, but it doesn't give all that much information. For instance, you could have a game where it's heavy run game with a bit of play action, so you end up with a super efficient game and scoring wasn't really a problem. QB rating would look stellar. But then you play a game against a good defense, where you can't run the ball, at all. And they take away the middle of the field and deep stuff. So you have to dink and dunk and work to get the yards and score. You may throw twice as many passing TDs, but because of the game plan (that was necessary and led to points and a win) you get heavily 'penalized' in the stats category with efficiency (how can a stat line with more passing TDs and less picks be significantly worse just due to fewer yards per attempt? That's insane. You don't get points or wins with an extra yard or two per pass!).

QB rating is ONLY good to see if a QB was overall good or bad over a large enough sample size. It is completely useless to gain anything more precise than just a 'squint'.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Qb Rating is really flawed, it's a tool, but shouldn't be the thing you point to and go "see, he's (declining, improving, bad, etc etc)". If you don't believe, just look at Brady's QB rating in the Superbowl.

In fact, his 95 QB rating in the Superbowl surprised me so much that I played around with the rating calculator. Believe it or not, but Brady could have thrown for 8 TDs and 0 INTs, with the rest of his stat line the same, and STILL had a lower QB rating than Ryan... It's junk.

QB rating doesn't take into account decision making, such as taking horrible sacks, not throwing the ball away when you should, handing off the ball for a rushing TD or even rushing it in yourself. I agree that team offense needs to be greatly factored into evaluating a QB because at the end of the day, not only is that the ONLY thing that matters, but a team does what is in the best interest of winning, NOT piling up stats. If running the ball makes more sense situationally, Brady will hand it off.

Finally, efficiency is great, but it doesn't give all that much information. For instance, you could have a game where it's heavy run game with a bit of play action, so you end up with a super efficient game and scoring wasn't really a problem. QB rating would like stellar. But then you play a game against a good defense, where you can't run the ball, at all. And they take away the middle of the field and deep stuff. So you have to dink and dunk and work to get the yards and score. You may throw twice as many passing TDs, but because of the game plan, that was necessary, and led to points and a win, you get heavily 'penalized' in the stats category with efficiency.

QB rating is ONLY good to see if a QB was overall good or bad over a large enough sample size. It is completely useless to gain anything more precise than just a 'squint'.

When judging a QB all that matters are wins, championships, scoring offense, comebacks, 3rd down conversions, fewest chokes and your teammates saying to a man they will fight to the death for you.

QBR, QB rating, passing efficiency, comp % is all crap