Things that would need to be believed in order for a ball tampering scheme to have taken place

[NashuaPats]

Think of all the things that one would need to believe or assume for the ball tampering to be true.

Tom Brady believed that removing less than 0.5 psi from the footballs would give him an edge that would make the difference between winning and losing.
That this advantage was worth risking his reputation and legacy.
That he would trust a part time employee with this task.
That both the ball boy and locker room attendant were both willing to run this scheme even though it could potentially ruin Jastremski's career.
That McNally would be willing to run this scheme for free sneakers and a signed jersey despite the fact the guy who he was doing this for is worth over $100 million.
That McNally, a large obese man, would execute this in 100 seconds despite having plenty of time.
That his scheme would require not a single NFL exec or ref to walk to the field with him.
That the referee, despite measuring 56 footballs just a few hours earlier, would be wrong about which gauge he used despite the two gauges looking so different, one with a 1.4 inch crooked needle with a big red logo on it and the other with a 0.7 inch straight needle without a big red logo.
That the scheme had been going on since at least 5 months before Jastremski clearly stated the balls should have been 13 psi.
That Brady would lie about even knowing who McNally is.
That Brady would not text, e-mail, or call either of the two guys even a single time while this scheme was going on.
That McNally and Dorito Dink would not send a single text to each other with any direct comments about the scheme.
That the best excuse they could come up with for "deflator" was about weight loss.
That McNally and Jastremski would foresee Wells picking out a single four month old text about McNally being stressed, get together and concoct a story that involved a third friend who was not a team employee and who was not only ok with it, but offered to be interviewed by a high powered attorney who is conducting an investigation that has the interest of the nation and lie.
That neither a ball boy or beer truck delivery guy would crack under pressure or slip up telling their many concocted stories during their 12+ hour combined interrogations or their previous interviews.

If any of these points fails, there was no scheme.

Am I missing anything?

 

[MagicMarker]

For the AFC Championship, that Brady would want as little as .2 PSI removed from the football when just a change in temperature would cause a full 1 PSI drop.

 

[Koma]

Regarding Brady wanting/needing this "advantage":

He would decide this was necessary only after 2006 (or whenever the guidelines changed about QBs preparing footballs), even though he and his team had enjoyed terrific success without any ball tampering.

He was willing to use tampered footballs only at home games, since his "deflation crew" wouldn't be present on the road. Despite this, his home vs. away stats are almost identical.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

Well I think the NFL knows that nothing happened that night. In other games, sure, it's very possible. The texts, Brady's strange "I don't think I'm a cheater" response, the complaints about previous PSIs. They indicate to me that the officials weren't doing their jobs properly so Brady had his boys do it themselves. If you break a rule to make sure another rule isn't broken, are you cheating? Not really, but could Brady have come completely clean and risked missing the SB over air? Hell no. That night, McNally probably tested 3 balls in the bathroom and they were right around 12.5. He put them back in the bag and went to the field.

 

[Froob]

Well I think the NFL knows that nothing happened that night. In other games, sure, it's very possible. The texts, Brady's strange "I don't think I'm a cheater" response, the complaints about previous PSIs. They indicate to me that the officials weren't doing their jobs properly so Brady had his boys do it themselves. If you break a rule to make sure another rule isn't broken, are you cheating? Not really, but could Brady have come completely clean and risked missing the SB over air? Hell no. That night, McNally probably tested 3 balls in the bathroom and they were right around 12.5. He put them back in the bag and went to the field.

I'm not sure why you would think that....there's no reason to think anybody was deflating balls to even a legal level. Absolutely no evidence of anything like that. Didn't they also say that that was the first time he's even brought the balls to that bathroom? Sounds like they were just showing the refs the rulebook and telling them to bring them down to 12.5

 

[Concussion Protocol]

I'm not sure why you would think that....there's no reason to think anybody was deflating balls to even a legal level. Absolutely no evidence of anything like that. Didn't they also say that that was the first time he's even brought the balls to that bathroom? Sounds like they were just showing the refs the rulebook and telling them to bring them down to 12.5

Of course there's no evidence. This whole thing is ridiculous. The texts are suspicious though, and the weight loss deflator nickname explanation was absurd.

 

[Zeus]

The texts, Brady's strange "I don't think I'm a cheater" response, the complaints about previous PSIs.

Wasn't that Brady quote from the press conference when everyone but the NFL thought the balls were deflated by more than 2 PSI?

 

[PatsSox363804]

a rational person only needs 3 things to conclude nothing happened:

1) balls measured in range using the gauge the ref said he used and with the gauge he said he didn't use were not even .3 under and to believe they had a scheme to let .3psi out of a ball is absurd.

2) Brady told jastremski to give the ref a copy of the rules, you don't do that to later break them.

3) the only reference to psi in any of the texts from the report is "these are at 16, should be 13" which is months after the "deflator" text.

But none of that matters to the public, the NFL knew they could exploit this when they got caught with their pants down so they turned it into a headlines/pr campaign and the rest of the country who just want to say "lol cheat riots" lapped it right up. Useful idiots.

 

[Concussion Protocol]

Wasn't that Brady quote from the press conference when everyone but the NFL thought the balls were deflated by more than 2 PSI?

Yes, but McNally could've taken 8 PSI out of the balls and it wouldn't make Brady guilty. Still should've been an emphatic "no"

 

[NashuaPats]

Wasn't that Brady quote from the press conference when everyone but the NFL thought the balls were deflated by more than 2 PSI?

Yes and after a reporter asked him what do we tell the children. Brady was in an awkward spot largely because of the lies told by the NFL.

The deflator comment may sound absurd, but running jokes or plain kidding around usually is absurd.

 

[raduray]

Going to my IDL spreadsheet, a difference of two degrees in the assumed field and locker room temperatures would account for the 0.2 PSI. Note that neither the field or locker room temps were measured; they were assumed.

Assuming locker room 12.5 psi
Locker room temp of 70 deg yields 11.37 psi at 48 deg field temp
Locker room temp of 72 deg yields 11.17 psi at 46 deg field temp

 

[realtime]

The first 5 items on your list in particular are a train wreck of false premises and incorrect assumptions that certainly do not have to be true for there to have been a scheme. Just playing the devil's advocate a bit, but no need to overstate the case.

 

[Two Eight]

He was willing to use tampered footballs only at home games, since his "deflation crew" wouldn't be present on the road. Despite this, his home vs. away stats are almost identical.

It's s solid point. Given how anal Brady is about every little detail of his life, from his diet (avocado ice cream) to his throwing motion (he talks about how the slightest variation in pinky pressure means the difference between a touchdown and an incompletion). To think that he would actually WANT to have to go back and forth adapting to using two different pressure footballs throughout the season is just stupid.

 

[Koma]

It's s solid point. Given how anal Brady is about every little detail of his life, from his diet (avocado ice cream) to his throwing motion (he talks about how the slightest variation in pinky pressure means the difference between a touchdown and an incompletion). To think that he would actually WANT to have to go back and forth adapting to using two different pressure footballs throughout the season is just stupid.

Never thought of it that way. Good point.

 

[eom]

Well I think the NFL knows that nothing happened that night. In other games, sure, it's very possible. The texts, Brady's strange "I don't think I'm a cheater" response, the complaints about previous PSIs. They indicate to me that the officials weren't doing their jobs properly so Brady had his boys do it themselves. If you break a rule to make sure another rule isn't broken, are you cheating? Not really, but could Brady have come completely clean and risked missing the SB over air? Hell no. That night, McNally probably tested 3 balls in the bathroom and they were right around 12.5. He put them back in the bag and went to the field.

Dude, you are lunatic fringe

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

Brady's strange "I don't think I'm a cheater" response

I am so sick and tired about the hyper-focus on this one admittedly weak remark.

Watch the press conference or read the transcript! He emphatically denied any wrongdoing over and over and over again. Then, yes, when asked basically the same question for the umpteenth time, one that was loaded up with the lie of the footballs ALL being 2 psi under, he gave one wishy-washy answer. Take the lie out of it and it probably would not have been said. If the reporter accepts the position he has already laid our 3-4 times rather than bring it up again, it probably would not have been said either. My guess is that he was trying hard not to be rude and use the same exact words to answer the same question, since apparently the questioner was not satisfied with his first/second/third roughly identical answer. He's not a politician, a lawyer, or an orator.

Still, the overwhelming takehome message from the press conference was Brady saying that he did nothing wrong and that he has no idea how in the world the balls were 2 psi under (because they WERE NOT!)

 

[eom]

Fyi - nothing happened.
This is obvious.
You would be an idiot to think otherwise.

 

[eom]

I am so sick and tired about the hyper-focus on this one admittedly weak remark.

Watch the press conference or read the transcript! He emphatically denied any wrongdoing over and over and over again. Then, yes, when asked basically the same question for the umpteenth time, one that was loaded up with the lie of the footballs ALL being 2 psi under, he gave one wishy-washy answer. Take the lie out of it and it probably would not have been said. If the reporter accepts the position he has already laid our 3-4 times rather than bring it up again, it probably would not have been said either.

Still, the overwhelming takehome message from the press conference was Brady saying that he did nothing wrong and that he has no idea how in the world the balls were 2 psi under (because they WERE NOT!)

There is absolutely nothing unusual about brady's comment -- simply ppl reading what they want to hear into it.

Same with 'suspicious' phonecalls.
When I first heard those were 'evidence' I needed it explained to me

 

[BingoBrown]

How about the night before the Game where Brady is loosing sleep about the Big Bad Colts.

 

[Fencer]

Am I missing anything?

You're missing a lot. The biggest is that nobody has remotely suggested a scheme that both:

• Works for road games.
• Involves McNally.

Also, one has to believe that at home games:

• McNaly deflated balls while they were in the referees' locker room.
• Never got caught.
• Never came close enough to getting caught for people to decide the scheme wasn't worth the risk.