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There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought of

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SportsAnalyzer, Nov 21, 2007.

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  1. SportsAnalyzer

    SportsAnalyzer Rookie

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    this.

    Since the Pats don't have a problem going for it on 4th and 1 up 35-7, how come a coach playing against the pats can't go for it on 4th and 5 when the score is 7-0 pats? You see that Bill is going to do whatever it takes to win so why can't another NFL coach just tell his punter for that ONE GAME, take the day off because we are not going to use you today. We are going to go for it on 4th down all day long and even if it doesn't work atleast we know we came in here and made an effort to beat these guys.


    That's the only way a team like the Eagles or Jets can beat the Pats since they are not as good.
  2. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I think this is something that TMQ (gasp) acutally gets right. Continuously going for it on fourth and short, statistically, will increase your scoring over a game. Just like every Sunday, there are teams that punt when down by 2 scores in the fourth quarter.
  3. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I can't tell if you are trying to be ridiculous or not. If you are, you need to fine tune your humor. If not, you need to watch some football. :D

    BB punted against Buffalo, you know, at the end of the game.

    Facing fourth and twenty on your own ten yard is not the time to go for it UNLESS there are under two minutes to play and you are down.

    It is all situationally based. Making you punter inactive will hamstring your team as well as motivate the other teams defense as they will take it as a challenge.

    I have thought more than once that if BB really wanted to disrespect a team, he could make Hanson inactive. But it better be a team he is SURE of beating, and even then, he has Welker who punts very well.

    Depending on score and field position. Fourth and one inside your own ten yard line in the first quarter is hardly conducive to winning a game.

    This always boggles my mind. It happens ALL the time. What are coaches thinking? It is related to the family of plays where it's third down and seven and the QB throws to a receiver who is running a six yard route with a defender running alongside, waiting to tackle him short of the first down. Or when you have no time outs, under two minutes to play, down two, and you throw a dump off pass to welll covered RB behind the LOS. No gain, loss of 20 seconds on the game clock. Stupid.
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2007
  4. National Sports Advisors

    National Sports Advisors Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought


    Because our defense is GOOD and we will stop more 4th downs than we give up. If teams start going for 4th downs in their own territory, than the scores will starting looking like 49-0 and 56-0 at HALFTIME.
  5. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I've thought that for awhile, but while it might change the dynamics of the game, our D is actually quite good, and the result would probably be the same. Nonetheless, if I was coaching the Eagles, I'd keep the O on the field for 4 downs, use onside kicks, etc. At the very least, by having to defend a short field, it would prevent the D from getting overtired, and give the team at least an outside chance of competing for all 60 minutes.
  6. mcbee

    mcbee Banned

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I think more teams should go for it on 4th down in general, not that it's a sure thing.

    But 4th and 2 and the opponents 40...why punt? Odds are it goes in the endzone and it's at the 20.
  7. PatsFaninAZ

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    True, but it will also tend to increase your opponents' scoring over the course of the game.
  8. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #11 Jersey

    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought


    This has been shown to be clearly true by lots of statistical analysis. Teams punt much, much too often. Risk aversion is rampant in the NFL. Even before this scorched-earth season, BB was one of the few coaches who took the academic analyses seriously and started leaving the punter on the shelf. It's not just running up the score, it's sound football.
  9. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    A followup thought...this season the Pats have scored with as much regularity from deep in their own territory as from anywhere else on the field. So if you're a Pats opponent, punting on 4th and 3 when you've reached midfield is just wasting one of your own precious chances to score.
  10. edzo44

    edzo44 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I don't quite agree with the go for it on fourth down by our opponents. Look at the risk involved if you don't make it against this Pats team at the moment.
    You don't make it, Pats get the ball and next thing you know your another touchdown behind. What good is it to give them a shorter field to work with if it means you'll be further behind even quicker! :confused:
  11. Eugene Chung

    Eugene Chung Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    The Pats tend to apply this strategy more than other teams. In the Colts game two years ago, Belichick went for it on 4th down a few times because of the Colts ability to score on the Pats. If you know you can't stop the opponent's offense, there isn't much to lose by going for it on 4th down.
  12. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    But the key is you have to approach it like you're using all for downs, and make appropriate calls on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd downs. I don't know what the net effect of the score would be, but if I was an opposing coach I'd be tempted to give it a try once down by 14 or so.
  13. Oswlek

    Oswlek Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    First off, the 4th down idea only works given large samples. It completely ignores qualities of individual offenses and defenses. Considering just how much better NE is than some of the teams that they are facing, this would likely be the absolute worst strategy imaginable.

    Even if we assume equality across the board, the theory still has some flaws in sample size. It just as easily could cause a team with a legitimate shot at beating NE to lose due to a random 4th down stop with NE in scoring territory.

    The only way it would work is if you have a team that has virtually no chance to win in a normal game just throwing caution to the wind. But, as we have seen, the gap between NE and other teams is so large that even with an 80% conversion rate on 4th downs, those types of teams still couldn't hang with NE.

    Frankly, this strategy is very, very bad.
  14. fester

    fester Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    If you work with the assumption that the probability of the Patriots scoring a touchdown against non-elite defenses is significantly higher than league norms irregardless of field position a failed 4th down conversion just means on average the Pats score the same touchdown that they would have scored on the possession resulted from the punt slightly faster than they otherwise would have. However a successful conversions increases the probability of your own score, and at the very least decreases the time in the game and thus the total number of future possessions that the Patriots could have.

    For instance it is 4th and 2 on the Pats 44, a good punt pins the Pats back to their 10, and given season long trend, the Pats will have a better than even chance of scoring from this starting position. It may just take five minutes. A failed conversion reduces the probable drive length to four minutes; however a successful conversion to the Pats 41 and then a four and out knocks off at least 30 seconds and probably 2 minutes off the entire game clock and puts you back into the same equilibrium. However that successful conversion to the Pats 41 could also lead to a 4th down field goal from the 32 or a continued drive for a touchdown. Killing clock and slowing the game down is almost as valuable as scoring the points.

    This equation changes if you have a good deal of confidence in your defense being able to slow the Patriots down. So far the Colts are the only team that has been able to do this on a consistent basis.
  15. fester

    fester Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I agree; this is a ****ty strategy in an absolute sense. However the relevant question is whether or not this is a less ****ty strategy compared to other options available for teams that have 'virtually no chance to win in a normal game' which right now depending on how generous you want to be probably includes at least half the league, to almost all of it.
  16. sdaniels7114

    sdaniels7114 Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    Yeah, unless the opposing team is much stronger defensively than they are comparatively on offense. Particularly so early on when the length of the field really has seemed to be irrelevant to the Pats. Any team that has shown the ability to hang with them for even a little while, like Dallas and Indy, would be crazy to try it though, IMO.
  17. tombonneau

    tombonneau Rookie

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I agree with this. If a coach is pretty much willing to admit NE is going to score on 6/7 or 7/8 possessions, I think anything under 4th and 5 past your own 30 is fair game.

    I mean it's a totally desperate gambit, but you're better off letting them score quickly if you think your D won't stop them anyway.

    Of course, this would only work for a team with a good offense that would have a prayer of keeping pace with NE.

    I just think it's funny that this team is so good that I believe a wacky, ****amamie theory like this actually might be legitimate. :)
  18. GameDay

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    Please give credit where credit is due. A professor published a paper several yrs ago on the 4th down strategy. Judy Batista reported how Belichick sought out the professor to discuss. TMQ is nothing but an overreaching hack. His expertise and credibility is confined only to his own field. He pretends to use his intellect to convey a sense of authority in football. That's total BS. Any honest intellectual will cite the source and not try to pass an idea on as his own. That's blatant academic plagiarism of ideas. Or in plain English, cheating.
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2007
  19. PatsWickedPissah

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    The strategy to just plain go for it on 4th down is ludicrous.

    However, there is a modified 'win the game' 4th down strategy that could help score more points. If you're playing the Patriots and are inside their 40, plan on a 4 down approach from then on. Field goals are useless because the Pats O will keep puting up 7 to your 3. If you plan for 4 downs, select your 1st down play, etc. with this in mind and go for it on 4th (exceptions being you're sacked or peanalized and have 4th and 20) you have at least a chance of geting a 1st down and ultimately scoring. A few successes here and there and you're tiring out the Pats D. The problem here is geting onto the Pats side of the 50. Every plan has a downside. :)
  20. alamo

    alamo praedica numerum! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: There is actually a way to beat the Pats but I don't think any coach has thought

    I suspect that, statistically, it would also increase the other team's scoring.
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