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The Line is moving fast


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Im not concerned about the line moving 2 points.

All it proves is that bettors waited to see if the line moved higher and to see who was injured before finally putting money on the Ravens. Jones and Woodhead are both playing.

At 9.5, the Ravens are basically up 2 scores to begin the game. Thats a tantalizing bet considering how close these NE vs Baltimore games usually are.

Anything over 7 is still really good, but balt +9.5 was the best sports betting opportunity i can remember
 
FWIW, a listing of current lines as of Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET:

-7½ -- LVH (Las Vegas Hotel & Casino)
-7½ -- William Hill
-7½ -- Caesar's/Harrah's/Rio
-7½ -- Stations Casino
-7½ -- South Point Casino
-7½ -- Atlantis Reno
-7½ -- Stratosphere
-7½ -- Coasts Casino
-8 ---- MGM Mirage
-8 ---- Wynn Resorts


The offshore places seem to be remaining just a bit higher:

-7½ -- Bookmaker.eu
-8 ---- Sportsbook.ag
-8 ---- PinnacleSports.com
-8 ---- YouWager.eu
-8 ---- 5 Dimes
-8 ---- TopBets.com
-8 ---- CarbonSports.ag
-9½ -- SportsBets.com
-10 --- Bovada
 
It's okay to have a reasonable discussion about a topic that doesn't necessarily blow smoke up the asses of our favorite team 24/7/365. It doesn't always mean that people are camped out in a bunker wearing foil hats.

It's alright to fall somewhere in the middle of certain topics, and for what it's worth to you, the only concern was that the "sharps" or "experts" money was coming in a bit quickly, which was pushing the line down dramatically. That usually doesn't happen until closer to gametime, and often acts as a predicator as to what the big players are doing.

Those who wish to converse about that are free to do so, while those who do not partake in such practices do not need to concern themselves.

For what it's worth to you, I stated that some of the factors may have been weather (the suggested 25+ mph crosswinds which will affect the passing game), the media hype, and replays of last year's game--which don't have any bearing on this year's but tend to point out a closer matchup.

There is no such thing as a "reasonable discussion" on gambling odds that involves anyone but the gamblers themselves. At its very core, this pastime boils down to a cat-and-mouse game of emotion and deception. What's pathetic is the fantasy world gamblers buy into -- that the scumbag professionals have "secret inside information." It's a shady pursuit to begin with, perpetually teetering on the edge of criminality. THAT is why it's not condoned by the NFL or any pro sports league.
 
And yet if you had to bet the game.......

With the Pats at -9.5, I'd have taken the Ravens, but been happy if I lost.

I think that the Niners at -4.5 is that low only because Atlanta is at home; I usually think that Home Field is worth three points, so when the Home team is favored by three, I usually read that as a tossup. In this case, I'd have taken the Niners at -4.5 and expected to do well.
 
So, a line 3 points out of whack worst is the worst you can remember? Home field is worth at least 3.5 against BALT who hasn't been home in a while. And we (the worthy second seed) is certainly at least 3.5 point better then BALT on a neutral field. That gives you the 7 point current spread.

Let's be real; no one will be surprised if we start the fourth quarter with the patriots up by 10-14 points.

Anything over 7 is still really good, but balt +9.5 was the best sports betting opportunity i can remember
 
Wrong.

Twice.

The less the Line moves, the happier the Bookies are.

Thanks for correcting me! I guess that's why I lose more bets than I win. ;)
 
So, a line 3 points out of whack worst is the worst you can remember? Home field is worth at least 3.5 against BALT who hasn't been home in a while. And we (the worthy second seed) is certainly at least 3.5 point better then BALT on a neutral field. That gives you the 7 point current spread.

Let's be real; no one will be surprised if we start the fourth quarter with the patriots up by 10-14 points.

When was the last time we blew this team out? Blowing out Houston at home means nothing to me. Going into Denver and overcoming two kick return touchdowns, however, does. I would give the pats 3 pts for homefield and then probably a point and a half more. 9.5 is 5 points out of whack in my world
 
There is no such thing as a "reasonable discussion" on gambling odds that involves anyone but the gamblers themselves. At its very core, this pastime boils down to a cat-and-mouse game of emotion and deception. What's pathetic is the fantasy world gamblers buy into -- that the scumbag professionals have "secret inside information." It's a shady pursuit to begin with, perpetually teetering on the edge of criminality. THAT is why it's not condoned by the NFL or any pro sports league.

That's fine and dandy, Tunescribe. I respect your thoughts and your opinions.

A couple of things to point out from my end too though:

--some of these posters and contributors may very well be gamblers, and since it's a free country, we are entitled to have a discussion which has occurred many, many times over the years regarding big games.

--this is your personal opinion, and if you don't like it or agree with the discussion (which yes, is indeed "reasonable," then you can simply ignore the thread or not contribute).

--the NFL doesn't have to be "on board" with gambling, the rest of the world already is...it's legal in the entire state of Nevada, and is often brought up by even the most basic sportscaster and the stories that follow the game. The NFL is VERY aware that a very good portion of interest on many, many games is due to gambling. No one is asking for their permission. The success of the NFL is certainly related to the big time exposure that comes from sportsbetting...otherwise the SB wouldn't keep setting records for the biggest wagers every single calendar year.

--last but not least, I'm not sure why you care in the first place, or have seemed to have taken it somewhat personally?

At any rate, my comments don't necessarily mean to come across as snarky, and I do respect your position.
 
FWIW, a listing of current lines as of Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET:

-7½ -- LVH (Las Vegas Hotel & Casino)
-7½ -- William Hill
-7½ -- Caesar's/Harrah's/Rio
-7½ -- Stations Casino
-7½ -- South Point Casino
-7½ -- Atlantis Reno
-7½ -- Stratosphere
-7½ -- Coasts Casino
-8 ---- MGM Mirage
-8 ---- Wynn Resorts


The offshore places seem to be remaining just a bit higher:

-7½ -- Bookmaker.eu
-8 ---- Sportsbook.ag
-8 ---- PinnacleSports.com
-8 ---- YouWager.eu
-8 ---- 5 Dimes
-8 ---- TopBets.com
-8 ---- CarbonSports.ag
-9½ -- SportsBets.com
-10 --- Bovada

The rational thing to do is to go to Bookmaker.eu and put everything you have available on a credit card on the Patriots giving 7-1/2 points and then go to Bovada.com and put an equal amount on the Ravens to cover the 10 points.

If the Patriots win by 8 or 9 points you win both. If the Patriots win by 10 you win just what you bet on the Patriots. If the Patriots win by 7 or fewer points or lose, you dress up like the Dalai Lama and tell the credit card companies that your name is Tunescribe and you never heard of whatever the name is on your credit cards. I hear Belize is nice this time of year and anti-virus software is real cheap.
 
FWIW, a listing of current lines as of Saturday at 10:30 a.m. ET:

-7½ -- LVH (Las Vegas Hotel & Casino)
-7½ -- William Hill
-7½ -- Caesar's/Harrah's/Rio
-7½ -- Stations Casino
-7½ -- South Point Casino
-7½ -- Atlantis Reno
-7½ -- Stratosphere
-7½ -- Coasts Casino
-8 ---- MGM Mirage
-8 ---- Wynn Resorts


The offshore places seem to be remaining just a bit higher:

-7½ -- Bookmaker.eu
-8 ---- Sportsbook.ag
-8 ---- PinnacleSports.com
-8 ---- YouWager.eu
-8 ---- 5 Dimes
-8 ---- TopBets.com
-8 ---- CarbonSports.ag
-9½ -- SportsBets.com
-10 --- Bovada

The rational thing to do is to go to Bookmaker.eu and put everything you have available on a credit card on the Patriots giving 7-1/2 points and then go to Bovada.com and put an equal amount on the Ravens to cover the 10 points.

If the Patriots win by 8 or 9 points you win both. If the Patriots win by 10 or more or by 7 or fewer points or lose, you pay the vig on both bets.

If you cannot afford the vig, you dress up like the Dalai Lama and tell the credit card companies that your name is Tunescribe and you never heard of whatever the name is on your credit cards. I hear Belize is nice this time of year and anti-virus software is real cheap.
 
The rational thing to do is to go to Bookmaker.eu and put everything you have available on a credit card on the Patriots giving 7-1/2 points and then go to Bovada.com and put an equal amount on the Ravens to cover the 10 points.

If the Patriots win by 8 or 9 points you win both. If the Patriots win by 10 you win just what you bet on the Patriots. If the Patriots win by 7 or fewer points or lose, you dress up like the Dalai Lama and tell the credit card companies that your name is Tunescribe and you never heard of whatever the name is on your credit cards. I hear Belize is nice this time of year and anti-virus software is real cheap.

Covering all the angles, I see..

I love the creativity involved :D

If your first naming option doesn't work, you certainly have my permission to try my name too. I will take one for the team in this case :rocker:
 
i would take the pats -7..maybe
 
Meanwhile...down in Jetland...they're doing the Fruity Conga!!!

Congo_line.gif


look at that line...!
 
Down to 7½ in most Vegas locations, though still 10 points at Bovada

Vegas Insider
 
Does that make it harder to pull the "no respect" card?
 
Amazing to me that Bovada is still hanging onto that 10 point spread. You'd figure they would want to move it to get some money in on the Pats.
 
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