The 3-year transition Brady/Garoppollo theory - is there any merit?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Here is my summary of the three-year transition theory, with its general premise and key recent moves that make it a reasonable, though not neceassily correct, hypothesis. It's hard to predict the future, even for the Patriots, so I'm not saying they are clairvoyant and anything is set in stone. So many things happen in the NFL - major injuries, shocking surprises, bad evaluations of all types, etc. However, the 3-year theory posits the Patriots are preparing for the most likely events that will happen in the future in order to remain a powerhouse with Brady and a potential powerhouse when he departs.

1. The main premise of the 3-year theory is that Tom Brady's last seasons with the team will be in 2017 and 2018 and Jimmy Garoppollo will be the starter in 2019. Brady is signed through the 2019 season, and here is where the devil is in the details. Brady carries a cap hit of just $7M if released in 2019. That number is $28M in 2017 and $14M in 2018. In other words, moving on from his contract in 2019 would not cripple the franchise other than a speed bump. They could also trade him for other assets. Brady's father has acknowledged that this is going to be a bad ending, with Brady wanting to play longer and the team finding too much risk, at his advanced age, of bipassing a long-term replacement for what may be 1-2 more seasons from Brady at age 43 and 44. Brady's father also referenced that the Patriots found a great young QB in Garoppollo. I believe Adam Schefter has the scoop right that Jimmy Garoppollo will NOT be traded this offseason, despite Mary Kay Cabot's questionable reports that the Patriots are open for business.

2. The fact that Brady's 2018 season could be his last one, based on a contract extension with 2019 providing the team with a relatively small cap hit in releasing him, may not be a coincidence. It lines up exactly with a transition plan with the team's options for Jimmy Garoppollo. The Patriots can franchise Garroppollo in 2018 and sign him to a long term extension for 2019 and beyond. Did you note that in this scenario, Garoppollo would be the starting his long-term deal in the exact same year the Patriots could move on from Brady? At this point, Brady would be 42 and Garoppollo 27. In this scenario, the Patriots fully control the rights to both Brady and Garoppollo.

3. This scenario may make people scoff about the uncomfortable 2018 season, with Brady playing quarterback for less money than his franchised backup. Certainly that would be strange and may lead to some big issues, but is one unorthodox, uncomfortable, and strange season worth having a great QB for the next 10-15 years? In some ways it would be the classic mad scientist Belichick going against all conventional wisdom and Brady once again proving to be the impeccable team player. Of course, Brady might react differently and want to be traded if this happened. I remind you, though, that if Jimmy Garoppollo ever becomes the team's starting QB while Brady is still wanting to play, there's going to be an ugly ending, and there is no way around it. There's no way around it because Brady's contract options and Garoppollo's contract options necessitate a big clash in 2018. Garoppollo is not signing a dumb deal to stay on as backup until Brady decides to quit, so the franchise tag will be necessary to retain him, while Brady is still the starting quarterback. Given Garoppollo's clear ability to play well in this offense, it would be very difficult for the Patriots to get rid of him, after going through a lot of backups over the years who gp ever played close to as good a game as JG played against Arizona and a half against Miami.

4. The Patriots realize that Brady is the greatest quarterback of all-time and playing at an insane level for his age. They have also seen Peyton Manning and Brett Farve recently produce all-world seasons, only to be essentially finished within just one calendar year. Sure, Brady is a unique case with a legendary conditioning program, but every NFL player falls off fast. At some point it will happen to Brady, inevitably. However, their recent moves seem intent on maximizing Brady's championship caliber roster while they still have him playing at a high level, even if it means the rebuilding process with Garoppollo might take some time as they are giving up draft picks to "win now." They are betting on Brady for the next two years. This offseason has been a major departure from their typical standard operating procedure. The Cooks deal in particular lines up well with the two year window theory, as he is likely here for two years before wanting a monster deal. The Gilmore deal might go beyond the Butler vs Gilmore value. It may also have to do with the one in hand, two in the bush saying. They wanted to secure a top cornerback for the next few years, and Gilmore was ready to take the deal, while the timing with Butler did not work out. They may not have wanted to risk losing Butler and being left with no elite corner, a major blow to championship contention.

5. To summarize, the Patriots would be giving Brady two loaded teams in 2017 and 2018 for a chance to add to his legacy but as of now, would find it too risky to count on his level of play continuing until he is 42/43 years old. Though Garoppollo won't be Brady, the vast amount of good/great/elite quarterback play they could get for 10-15 years far outweighs the limited later seasons of Brady's career, and it may even be worth it if Brady is still elite. Again, 15 years of stellar play versus a ticking time bomb for when Father Time inevitably wins.

6. I realize that many of these points are open to counter arguments and criticism for making assumptions. I think it is a reasonable theory - not a certain explanation- on the Patriots recent moves (or non-moves in the case of Jimmy G.) if we look at this in a more big picture way where the puzzle pieces all fit together.

 

[luuked]

I don't see any "loading up for Brady" happening right now.

Cooks is a binkie of BB since joint practices with the Saints and was acquired to add youth to an aging WR corp and because he is on a reasonable cheap deal over the next two years (~ 5m APY). Gilmore was added because the Pats have had a #1 CB ever since squiring Talib back in 2012 and there was uncertainty about Butler.

They have never given out so much for a FA player but then again were also never really in a position to have so much cap space before.


In terms of Jimmy.. we have been through all of this at all possible angles it seems.. not sure why we need yet another thread to discuss it..

In a different world where Jimmy is only in year 2 or 3 of his rookie deal (and you control him at cost for longer) I can see the scenario of him taking over happening. But he will want to play after this year so the Pats need to either franchise him (~21m) or grossly overpay him to accept an extension (26-28m+) while sitting on the bench. And if he accepts an extension like that then I am not sure he has the right attitude to be a great player anyway. Also, no way BB lets the backup QB have almost 200% of the next highest cap hit on the team.

The timing just doesn't work out unless Brady is traded to the Texans (which are the only realistic place for him to go) or suffers a serious injury.

 

[Bledsoehasaring]

Thank you for the effort but this thread is absurd. You dont keep players on the bench 6-7 years. And if brady loses in the afc championship next year and then wins a superbowl with this loaded team the year after.... then you get rid of him? You would be in the exact same place you are now... with the exact same questions. No you make a decison now or next year at the latest. You either believe brady can play for 3-5 years or you dont.

 

[DefenseRules]

I wish that they would just trade the guy or just cut Brady and be done with it. Brady does not deserve to have this guy hovering over him. BB if you don't want Brady to be the QB anymore, send him home or trade him and keep the Garapolus kid. Why wait? Apparently, Brady is to old to continue playing.

 

[patsfan13]

Right after the SB we heard the Pats and Brady were working on a 2-3 year extension.

His measurables have INCREASED for the past 3 years.

He ain't gonna go anywhere, we are stuck with the GOAT for another 5 years. Max JG's value with a trade. #12 and 2 second rounders and a 3rd will do the trick (2 in the 2018 year).

 

[NashuaPats]

This was a very well thought out post, but I just think that Brady is a rare exception. Manning fell fast because of a very specific injury. Favre relied heavily on his athleticism and for years contemplated retiring because his body felt so beat up at the end of every season. Brady said he felt great the day after the Super Bowl and was snow skiing a week later. He has been adamant that he wants to play into his mid forties because he truly loves the game and I think he also wants to prove his diet and conditioning programs work. He's obsessed with it. Unless he has a major injury, I think his drop off will be gradual rather than falling off fast.

I still lean towards trading Garroppolo now, but I'm not going to argue with keeping him. Belichick once commented that it would be unfair to the rest of the team if they didn't have a quality backup. I think that's the biggest reason to keep him. This team is going to be stacked and a huge favorite to win the SB. How much is that worth? They could still probably get a 2nd round pick for him after franching him next year while I think they could get a first and second rounder now. So the cost is an early to mid first rounder (Browns #12).

I think that first round pick may be worth holding onto Garroppolo for another season. To still have a chance to contend for a SB if Brady gets hurt with this stacked team. Then they will still have the chance to reassess the situation next year. My guess is that's what Bill is thinking rather than planning a transition.

 

[patsfan13]

What happens to JG this years is contingent on how BB views JB as Brady's backup.

Another interesting factor is that Yee is Brady's and JG's agent and has a lot of experience dealing with BB.

 

[Dexter]

Another problem with keeping Jimmy on a franchise tag in 2018 is that we'll be in a very tight cap space situation with him and Brady having 20+ million cap hits. Curran and Miguel spoke about it yesterday. I just don't see that happening.

I think - barring a major injury - the GOAT has at least another 3-4 years of high level left in him and If Jimmy won't be traded till this draft, my bet is he'll be tagged and traded a year from now and Brady will again restructure his contract to give us more space to operate.

Call me delusional but I don't think Brady will ever be traded or cut, I'm optimistic about him retiring a Patriot. I know NFL is a cruel businesses but Brady is not just another player or another legend. He's THE legend, THE best Patriot, THE best player of all time (not even close) and someone whose statue will be in Foxborough some day.
Brady wants to play as much as he can but he also said that he'd stop when he wouldn't be able to produce at his current high level. And once that drop in ability happens, I don't think he'll force it and it will be a mutual decision between him, Belichick and Kraft, who will do everything possible to end it on good terms.

 

[DarrylS]

My View on all of this, and it is not for Brady to go out in a blaze of glory... it is to continue to restock and present an excellent team in the field. Post Brady retirement they do not want to have a team that will go 8-8... they want to continue what they are doing.

1. The Pats have more money than ever to spend on FA's.. so they are doing some things they never have been known to have done before. They have to use this money. They can still sign Butler(which they won't) and Hightower(which they won't) for Gilmore money and still have plenty left over.

2. During SB VI they were pretty much taken out of the game by a younger and faster team for almost three quarters, thus the need for increasing team speed. Our underneath guys were pretty much neutralized, Cooks will add a new dimension.

3. I think by now they know what they have in Brisset and if he is accurate and making good decisions, then he might be heir apparent.. not Garrapolo.

 

[Nehalem]

This was a very well thought out post, but I just think that Brady is a rare exception. Manning fell fast because of a very specific injury. Favre relied heavily on his athleticism and for years contemplated retiring because his body felt so beat up at the end of every season. Brady said he felt great the day after the Super Bowl and was snow skiing a week later. He has been adamant that he wants to play into his mid forties because he truly loves the game and I think he also wants to prove his diet and conditioning programs work. He's obsessed with it. Unless he has a major injury, I think his drop off will be gradual rather than falling off fast.

The Vikings sent several players down to Mississippi to drag him back for the 2010 season. And he lost Sidney Rice for most of the season(and when Rice did play it was below his 2009 level). Sidney Rice was a beast in 2009. Oh and Brad Childress was his coach; you know the guy Randy Moss had his infamous meltdown about. And as I recall he was playing on a busted ankle.

 

[TruthSeeker]

The premise is wrong; Brady's playing another 5 years or so.

 

[Doctor DDS]

I do not buy the narrative that Brady will one year "fall off the cliff" due to age. His playing style has never been very athletic and as long as avoids a devastating injury I do not see any reason why he cannot reach his mid 40's goal while continuing to play at an elite level. Not sure how applicable the comps to prior QB's are as none of them had Brady's fitness focus and/or played under the same QB friendly rules their entire career.

 

[sb1]

Well thought out.

I actually disagree that it will end badly for Tom in NE. I think he is retiring here.

Can't compare Brady with those other guys. He will undoubtedly decline but I don't see him falling off the cliff like other QBs. In a decade when other QBs train and eat like Tom does, neither will they.

As for JG - As it stands right now if Brady wants to play - see ya. I'm not near ready to think he's starting 1 season for the Pats never mind 10-15 seasons. Need to see a lot more from him.

 

[Ivan]

It's a shame, much as I like Jimmy Garrapolo I can't wait for them to move him to at least put a temporary stop to this sh.t.

 

[upstater1]

We will have never-ending speculation for the next couple of years.

It is even possible that Brady loses some arm strength this year.

These are not ludicrous concerns.

That being said, there is no way Garopolo sits.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I've been firmly in the "Trade Jimmy Now" camp but I'm starting to believe BB is not just angling for more picks and he truly does not and will not trade Jimmy this offseason.

I think they keep Jimmy one more year as the best damn insurance policy on the planet.

I think in the 2018 offseason they either let him walk and net a comp pick or franchise him and get something better in trade OR if Tom experiences a drastic decline in play or enough of a slip for BB to assess he needs to move Tom, he will do it and have his next QB ready to go.

I also think Bill likes Jimmy nipping at TB12 heels. After all, the NEP is built on competition. Not that Tom needs it but is sure as hell does not hurt.

I get the, "Why get a 3rd round comp pick then when you can get a bushel of picks now?" arguement. I also get the, "Franchising him is stupid. You use up cap space and lose leverage in trade negotiations.".

BB has said it before. He values insurance highly. He values the QB position and how it controls a team's season. Hes not Bill Polian and leaves himself exposed. He values contingencies and plans for the unexpected. While its highly unlikely TB12 will get hurt or experience a quick and rapid decline (something BB has also commented on re: older players) he won't leave himself exposed to that situation IF it were to happen in 2017.

I think these conversations with other teams has been an exercise to better understand Jimmys market value and laying the groundwork for moving him (as long as TB12 is playing at GoAT level) in the 2018 offseason. Bill knows his leverage in 2018 will be weakened but because of the insurance Jimmy provides him THIS YEAR, hes willing to live with it.

 

[everlong]

I'm in my late 40's and do triathlons and long distance cycling. I can do the same types of rides and speeds I did when I was younger. What I cannot do is do them at the same frequency. I need a longer recovery period.

Obviously Brady's training regiment is far superior to anything I do since that's his job. When he's not training he's doing the perfect recovery, the perfect diet, the perfect core work...........Still at some point what going to hurt him is he's not going to be able to keep up with the demands physically of the long season. Playing on Sunday and then playing on Thursday or Saturday he won't be as sharp. Or not being as recovered and pliable as normal he'll get injured. Maybe the injury takes him out or maybe he plays through it and can't compensate like he used to. The shorter season definitely helped him this year.

At this point everybody is guessing as to when this will happen and nobody really knows. Part of it will come down to fate. When does he finally take that Leonard Marshall hit on Joe Montana where he's never really the same again? Or Aeneas Williams on Steve Young where it's career ending? I know the rule preclude this from happening now but all it takes is Brady spins into it and that's that.

I hope it doesn't end badly for Brady here or elsewhere but what is a good ending for a guy who has freely admitted they'll have to drag him off the field? He's not going to have that Elway I'm done after back to back moment short of an injury at the end of the game which again sucks. As long as he doesn't end his career in Green and White I can live with it.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

It's also a game a small margins. A QB doesn't have to degrade a lot physically to have big differences in output. Lose just a few percent in velocity and now maybe the DBs are able to get to those passes that were jusssssst past their outstretched hands the year before, and so on.

 

[Froob]

Brissett has won the Super Bowl every year he's been in the league, why does everyone brush him to the side?

 

[XLIX]

Here is my summary of the three-year transition theory, with its general premise and key recent moves that make it a reasonable, though not neceassily correct, hypothesis. It's hard to predict the future, even for the Patriots, so I'm not saying they are clairvoyant and anything is set in stone. So many things happen in the NFL - major injuries, shocking surprises, bad evaluations of all types, etc. However, the 3-year theory posits the Patriots are preparing for the most likely events that will happen in the future in order to remain a powerhouse with Brady and a potential powerhouse when he departs.

1. The main premise of the 3-year theory is that Tom Brady's last seasons with the team will be in 2017 and 2018 and Jimmy Garoppollo will be the starter in 2019. Brady is signed through the 2019 season, and here is where the devil is in the details. Brady carries a cap hit of just $7M if released in 2019. That number is $28M in 2017 and $14M in 2018. In other words, moving on from his contract in 2019 would not cripple the franchise other than a speed bump. They could also trade him for other assets. Brady's father has acknowledged that this is going to be a bad ending, with Brady wanting to play longer and the team finding too much risk, at his advanced age, of bipassing a long-term replacement for what may be 1-2 more seasons from Brady at age 43 and 44. Brady's father also referenced that the Patriots found a great young QB in Garoppollo. I believe Adam Schefter has the scoop right that Jimmy Garoppollo will NOT be traded this offseason, despite Mary Kay Cabot's questionable reports that the Patriots are open for business.

2. The fact that Brady's 2018 season could be his last one, based on a contract extension with 2019 providing the team with a relatively small cap hit in releasing him, may not be a coincidence. It lines up exactly with a transition plan with the team's options for Jimmy Garoppollo. The Patriots can franchise Garroppollo in 2018 and sign him to a long term extension for 2019 and beyond. Did you note that in this scenario, Garoppollo would be the starting his long-term deal in the exact same year the Patriots could move on from Brady? At this point, Brady would be 42 and Garoppollo 27. In this scenario, the Patriots fully control the rights to both Brady and Garoppollo.

3. This scenario may make people scoff about the uncomfortable 2018 season, with Brady playing quarterback for less money than his franchised backup. Certainly that would be strange and may lead to some big issues, but is one unorthodox, uncomfortable, and strange season worth having a great QB for the next 10-15 years? In some ways it would be the classic mad scientist Belichick going against all conventional wisdom and Brady once again proving to be the impeccable team player. Of course, Brady might react differently and want to be traded if this happened. I remind you, though, that if Jimmy Garoppollo ever becomes the team's starting QB while Brady is still wanting to play, there's going to be an ugly ending, and there is no way around it. There's no way around it because Brady's contract options and Garoppollo's contract options necessitate a big clash in 2018. Garoppollo is not signing a dumb deal to stay on as backup until Brady decides to quit, so the franchise tag will be necessary to retain him, while Brady is still the starting quarterback. Given Garoppollo's clear ability to play well in this offense, it would be very difficult for the Patriots to get rid of him, after going through a lot of backups over the years who gp ever played close to as good a game as JG played against Arizona and a half against Miami.

4. The Patriots realize that Brady is the greatest quarterback of all-time and playing at an insane level for his age. They have also seen Peyton Manning and Brett Farve recently produce all-world seasons, only to be essentially finished within just one calendar year. Sure, Brady is a unique case with a legendary conditioning program, but every NFL player falls off fast. At some point it will happen to Brady, inevitably. However, their recent moves seem intent on maximizing Brady's championship caliber roster while they still have him playing at a high level, even if it means the rebuilding process with Garoppollo might take some time as they are giving up draft picks to "win now." They are betting on Brady for the next two years. This offseason has been a major departure from their typical standard operating procedure. The Cooks deal in particular lines up well with the two year window theory, as he is likely here for two years before wanting a monster deal. The Gilmore deal might go beyond the Butler vs Gilmore value. It may also have to do with the one in hand, two in the bush saying. They wanted to secure a top cornerback for the next few years, and Gilmore was ready to take the deal, while the timing with Butler did not work out. They may not have wanted to risk losing Butler and being left with no elite corner, a major blow to championship contention.

5. To summarize, the Patriots would be giving Brady two loaded teams in 2017 and 2018 for a chance to add to his legacy but as of now, would find it too risky to count on his level of play continuing until he is 42/43 years old. Though Garoppollo won't be Brady, the vast amount of good/great/elite quarterback play they could get for 10-15 years far outweighs the limited later seasons of Brady's career, and it may even be worth it if Brady is still elite. Again, 15 years of stellar play versus a ticking time bomb for when Father Time inevitably wins.

6. I realize that many of these points are open to counter arguments and criticism for making assumptions. I think it is a reasonable theory - not a certain explanation- on the Patriots recent moves (or non-moves in the case of Jimmy G.) if we look at this in a more big picture way where the puzzle pieces all fit together.

1. All of this boils down to the notion that, like so many other theories, it relies on Garoppolo being happy to remain a backup for several more years.

2. What makes you think it will be so easy to sign Garoppolo to a long term deal, even if you franchise him in 2018? If he is a UFA, other teams will be interested.