Terrified of our WR situation

[Reckedtrek]

Wait until FredFD starts blaming the turf for the REAL reason why Wes left!

 

[Bruins29]

hmmmmmmmmmmm

As suspected. They are going after a big gun. I think Sanders is insurance (if they can even get it done) in case they cant land a big time WR.

Jennings got 9 mil per (not sure of cap hit though). Pats were at 6. It is probably all the Pats can afford assuming they are looking to bring back Vollmer, JE, and have enough for draft class, Vet castoffs and emergency funds.

I think someone said they might be around 13 million in cap room. 6 is all they can do given the above scenario.

Things are getting tight. They need another 6 million dollar man. Love Fitz/Cruz et all but I cant see it happen given current cap situation.

Hmmmm

 

[supafly]

As suspected. They are going after a big gun. I think Sanders is insurance (if they can even get it done) in case they cant land a big time WR.

Jennings got 9 mil per (not sure of cap hit though). Pats were at 6. It is probably all the Pats can afford assuming they are looking to bring back Vollmer, JE, and have enough for draft class, Vet castoffs and emergency funds.

I think someone said they might be around 13 million in cap room. 6 is all they can do given the above scenario.

Things are getting tight. They need another 6 million dollar man. Love Fitz/Cruz et all but I cant see it happen given current cap situation.

Hmmmm

I don't agree with the thought that we're strapped at the moment. To be honest I don't agree that there's only 13 million left in room either.

Not only are they looking at signing a pass rushing specialist in the likes of Freeny or Abraham, they are also obviously looking for a wide receiver--as you pointed out.

The most important aspect is "how" the pact is structured for a 2013 cap hit. For example, Brian Hartline signed a 5 yr/30m deal in MIA and is only counting for less than a 2m dollar hit this year. Many deals have a cap hit of much less than what the aav comes out to in the first year. In all reality they definitely could have signed Jennings at 9m (not that they would have--it's poor value by far) and still had his cap hit around 4m for the 2013 season.

Also keep in mind that there are still cuts to be made, and money to be freed up that way too. On top of that there are a couple of restructures that can be done to instantly add to that total.

I'd have to guess that there's at least 15+ in cap room (Good lord, Llyod freed up an additional 2.5 just today!), and that they'll have absolutely no problem signing a situational pass rusher, a viable WR, and still have money left over for some of the usual things they'll need to do--and that's before any other additional money is freed.

 

[mgteich]

Unless we sign a top player like Dumervil, we also will have room for a couple of OL's, hopefully including Vollmer.

I'd have to guess that there's at least 15+ in cap room (Good lord, Llyod freed up an additional 2.5 just today!), and that they'll have absolutely no problem signing a situational pass rusher, a viable WR, and still have money left over for some of the usual things they'll need to do--and that's before any other additional money is freed.

 

[supafly]

Unless we sign a top player like Dumervil, we also will have room for a couple of OL's, hopefully including Vollmer.

Good point. That should clear itself up in the next several days I think.

To be honest, I couldn't imagine Belichick actually choosing to do that, but one never knows--anything is possible. I just feel that Dumervil is downright awful vs the run, and that's something that doesn't usually fly too well when it comes to handing out top notch payment here.

I think he'll go the route of the cheaper and still (hopefully) effective Freeny or Abraham for the time being, which is much more his usual method. I actually think that both of them are better vs the run and better in overall value.

 

[Bruins29]

I don't agree with the thought that we're strapped at the moment. To be honest I don't agree that there's only 13 million left in room either.I'd have to guess that there's at least 15+ in cap room (Good lord, Llyod freed up an additional 2.5 just today!), and that they'll have absolutely no problem signing a situational pass rusher, a viable WR, and still have money left over for some of the usual things they'll need to do--and that's before any other additional money is freed.

I hope you are right. I had 12 or 13 in my mind. If its more..great.

You think they can afford more than the Jennins offer they made and still have enough for quality additions the trenches on both side of the ball. Keeping in mind they need another corner and given they usually hold about what 3-4 mil in reserve not taking into account the draft.

 

[strngplyr]

Good point. That should clear itself up in the next several days I think.

To be honest, I couldn't imagine Belichick actually choosing to do that, but one never knows--anything is possible. I just feel that Dumervil is downright awful vs the run, and that's something that doesn't usually fly too well when it comes to handing out top notch payment here.

I think he'll go the route of the cheaper and still (hopefully) effective Freeny or Abraham for the time being, which is much more his usual method. I actually think that both of them are better vs the run and better in overall value.

Might be reading into it too much, but with all the talk of an Abraham deal being imminent and then the timing of the Dumervil debacle, they could be related.

I think we know that some veteran pass rusher will still be available and we want to make a push for a younger guy who is more than a one year rental.

 

[supafly]

I'd of been fine with 3/7 personally I cannot believe he received that deal.

I think that estimate may be a bit low personally, but 3/9 (equaling out to 4/12) should have been good enough, so our opinions are pretty close there.

The 3/7 isn't much more than he was already getting, which I believe was a tad less than 2m per, maybe 1.8 or so?

I think that Belichick may feel that it's better to have someone who already has knowledge of the system than bring in an outside slot CB. Coincidently enough, rotoworld.com had Arrington as one of the "premier slot CBs in the NFL," so my assumption is that maybe Belichick thinks he'll finally be used full-time at the star position, which was the plan for the past 2 seasons.

If he excels there, or at least plays well--his 4m per year may end up looking much more acceptable in a year or two down the line, especially if the CB market goes back up a bit. There were supposedly several teams throwing out offers to him over last weekend, so it appears that his services were more in demand than maybe we give him credit for. He was also in the "in-between" range of a slot CB and a starting outside CB, even though he sucks outside. I'm guessing that may have raised the price a little.

Overall, I still think your right though. At this point it's still the WTF signing price-wise of our FA class.

 

[supafly]

I hope you are right. I had 12 or 13 in my mind. If its more..great.

You think they can afford more than the Jennins offer they made and still have enough for quality additions the trenches on both side of the ball. Keeping in mind they need another corner and given they usually hold about what 3-4 mil in reserve not taking into account the draft.

I think they'll continue moving in the right direction with their overall plan that they had coming into free agency, personally. I think we can expect a couple/few cuts ahead to free up some more money and that if it comes down to it they will certainly restructure a deal or two. One way or another they should be able to address their needs.

I have never really seen Vollmer coming back though. I still think that he will be too pricey for their taste, even if it's at 6 million aav. Just my opinion of course.

Might be reading into it too much, but with all the talk of an Abraham deal being imminent and then the timing of the Dumervil debacle, they could be related.

I think we know that some veteran pass rusher will still be available and we want to make a push for a younger guy who is more than a one year rental.

I agree that the timing may have something to do with it. The thing is, I just can't see Belichick being okay with someone that expensive who cannot stop the run to save his life. It's one thing if you can't stop the run and you are a situational pass rusher coming on the cheap, but it's another altogether if you are coming in at twice the price.

I certainly wouldn't be opposed to it. I just have a hard time imaging him actually being okay with giving someone that kind of money for a part-time role. If he were going to pay someone 6-7 million per year, then I think he'd do it for a full time DL player, not someone coming in primarily on 3rd down. It just doens't make sense to me. Then again, I don't half 1/1000th of his football expertise, so you never know how he may feel.

I'm wondering more if it's not assessing Freeny vs Abraham--price wise myself? We should know in the next few/several days though.

 

[Mack Herron]

That was a pretty low offer to Welker, I think it was more of a look good in the public eye type offer. Hey, we offered Welker a contract and he didn't accept it. They couldn't have been serious about that offer if they wanted to keep him.

They negotiated with Welker for more than a year and paid him nearly $10 M last year. Pretty serious interest for a guy you don't even want.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story...ots-quickly-shifted-wes-welker-danny-amendola

Reiss nailed it except for the fact that BB's offer was beneath market value offered by other teams, but Welker did not want to go to a team that was not a contender (he turned down higher offers), and was willing to take less from the Patriots. Further, once it became clear that Welker would go to the open market, BB quickly moved on to Amendola. No problem with BB not willing to risk losing both players (and having to play someone like Edelman at the position), but BB evidently did not tell Welker that if he went to Free Agency, the Pats would go a different route. In other words, the offer to Welker was a take it or leave it proposition, and BB never informed Welker of that fact. To me, that is unnecessarily dishonest negotiating and explains why we have seen this sort of thing before with valuable veteran players surprised and sometimes bitter at the way the Patriots handle end-stage negotiation.

Amendola is a fine and promising player, but it is neither reasonable nor fair to expect him to provide the production Welker has, with more receptions in the past 6 years than any receiver in the NFL (or any receiver in NFL history over a 6 year period). The end result is that, at least for the near future, the team would have been stronger with Welker than Amendola. Instead, we got plan B, and BB is largely accountable for that.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Wilson is a safety. Who has at least shown potential. Safety was an obvious need last offseason.

Casey Hayward is a CB. The Patriots had McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, and took Dennard in the draft.

Then Dowling when on IR... again... and Patrick Chung started sucking things up so McCourty had to move to safety.

There is no obvious reason that Hayward should have been drafted instead.

They did not have Dennard when they drafted Wilson. They had diddly squat for CB at the time; basically no reliable corners. When there is a safety and a CB on the board it is usually best to draft the CB because a CB can be converted to a S in a pinch but not the other way around. But worst than that was that Wilson was a huge reach; they could have taken him in the 6th or 7th but they were worried that they would not have any late round picks so they made the reach. So here the Patriots are in serious need of a CB in a draft that is rich in S but not CB.

 

[KCSVEN]

They have 16.8 million before Arrington and Wilson as cap details not out yet. You can track cap space up to date at 2013 NFL Cap Tracker and click on the team, they already updated for Lloyd release and within hours seems to be updated and accurate

 

[RobertWeathers]

They did not have Dennard when they drafted Wilson. They had diddly squat for CB at the time; basically no reliable corners. When there is a safety and a CB on the board it is usually best to draft the CB because a CB can be converted to a S in a pinch but not the other way around. But worst than that was that Wilson was a huge reach; they could have taken him in the 6th or 7th but they were worried that they would not have any late round picks so they made the reach. So here the Patriots are in serious need of a CB in a draft that is rich in S but not CB.

Compared to where guys like Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock had him ranked, Wilson was absolutely a reach.

Based on his 2012 season, recording 4 INTs, 6 PDs, 2 FR, 36 tackles I'd say he was not.

 

[Paul_Newman]

I'd be cool to see the Pats hook Brady up with Fitzgerald.

Ironically, I think the Pats have the pieces to make that trade. Especially with QB woes going on in Arizona. I'd probably cost them Mallet, a first, and a second.

Too bad his contract doesn't make it likely.

Pats know time is running out, Brady is 36. They know they got to be more aggressive and try to win another before he exits the door.

Tom Brady's just don't go on trees. Take advantage while you can.

 

[Brady6]

I think that estimate may be a bit low personally, but 3/9 (equaling out to 4/12) should have been good enough, so our opinions are pretty close there.

The 3/7 isn't much more than he was already getting, which I believe was a tad less than 2m per, maybe 1.8 or so?

I think that Belichick may feel that it's better to have someone who already has knowledge of the system than bring in an outside slot CB. Coincidently enough, rotoworld.com had Arrington as one of the "premier slot CBs in the NFL," so my assumption is that maybe Belichick thinks he'll finally be used full-time at the star position, which was the plan for the past 2 seasons.

If he excels there, or at least plays well--his 4m per year may end up looking much more acceptable in a year or two down the line, especially if the CB market goes back up a bit. There were supposedly several teams throwing out offers to him over last weekend, so it appears that his services were more in demand than maybe we give him credit for. He was also in the "in-between" range of a slot CB and a starting outside CB, even though he sucks outside. I'm guessing that may have raised the price a little.

Overall, I still think your right though. At this point it's still the WTF signing price-wise of our FA class.

It is interesting that the perception could be that BB views the market value of a slot CB higher than other GM's but not the slot WR.

 

[Jimke]

It is interesting that the perception could be that BB views the market value of a slot CB higher than other GM's but not the slot WR.

BB views the market value of ALL wide receivers lower than other GMs.

 

[Brady6]

Individually, I like all of E.Sanders, Amendola, and D.Jones. Lloyd it's up in the air whether he will return this season.

How many times in the past have we had WR's come in here, do absolutely nothing and then leave and be told it's "because they couldn't pick up the playbook" or "because they couldn't click with Brady".

Well, we're looking at a season where ALL of Bradys receivers might be new guys who are learning the playbook and never caught passes from him before. Far too much pressure is being put on Brady to make it happen. I don't think those guys are scrubs, but they aren't physically dominating talents.

Im' not sure how we can expect to run last years offense with so many new guys- new guys Brady isn't going o trust for a while to run the hurry up offense.

This is my take on the WR situation if they remain healthy this season and play 14+ games each I see no reason why Gronkowski and Hernandez cannot combine for 2000-2500 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.

So lets say with our running attack being more of a focus we'd be looking to a combination of Amendola, Sanders, Jones, Vereen, Ballard, Ridley, Washington, Hoomanawanui, Fells and anyone else we add for basically 1500-2000 yards and 10-15 touchdowns. Even if we go high side that's 222 yards and 1.66 touchdowns per player. Maybe I'm simplifying the situation.

 

[tonyto3690]

Compared to where guys like Mel Kiper and Mike Mayock had him ranked, Wilson was absolutely a reach.

Based on his 2012 season, recording 4 INTs, 6 PDs, 2 FR, 36 tackles I'd say he was not.

His stats were mostly all flukes or just good luck. He was really mediocre last season and a giant disappointment given where we drafted him.

 

[VrabelJr]

His stats were mostly all flukes or just good luck. He was really mediocre last season and a giant disappointment given where we drafted him.

What Safety taken after him outplayed him?

 

[mgteich]

You are counting on the following

A) that Sanders will be signed

B) that Hernandez will be healthy for fourteen or more games

C) that Gronkowski will be healthy for fourteen or more games

D) that Amendola will be healthy

E) that Sanders, Amendola and Jones will learn the system early and basically have career years.

IMHO, we need two more WR's.

This is my take on the WR situation if they remain healthy this season and play 14+ games each I see no reason why Gronkowski and Hernandez cannot combine for 2000-2500 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.

So lets say with our running attack being more of a focus we'd be looking to a combination of Amendola, Sanders, Jones, Vereen, Ballard, Ridley, Washington, Hoomanawanui, Fells and anyone else we add for basically 1500-2000 yards and 10-15 touchdowns. Even if we go high side that's 222 yards and 1.66 touchdowns per player. Maybe I'm simplifying the situation.