Strength of Schedule

[PatsFanSince74]

After all the fuss a few weeks back over John Clayton's comments on strength of schedule, I thought I'd see what the numbers say.

I looked at the last three seasons and compared the records of each NFL team to their prior years' records in light of the change in schedule strength.

As you might suspect, comparative strength of schedule is not a sure and clear indicator of a team's "next year" performance and so Clayton's comments were silly.

However, the data do suggest that you are more likely to win more games than you did the year before if you have an easier schedule and that you are more likely to lose more games if you have a tougher schedule. Needless to say, a dozen other factors come into play in determining what any team actually does.

54% of Teams that had a tougher schedule lost more games in the next year (only 39% won more and 7% won the same number) and 59% of Teams that had an easier schedule won more games the next season (41% won fewer).

So, there are "lies, d*&^ed" lies and statistics," but I hope this gives a little context to the discussion.

Now, I can't wait for the season to begin.

 

[danny88]

After all the fuss a few weeks back over John Clayton's comments on strength of schedule, I thought I'd see what the numbers say.

I looked at the last three seasons and compared the records of each NFL team to their prior years' records in light of the change in schedule strength.

As you might suspect, comparative strength of schedule is not a sure and clear indicator of a team's "next year" performance and so Clayton's comments were silly.

However, the data do suggest that you are more likely to win more games than you did the year before if you have an easier schedule and that you are more likely to lose more games if you have a tougher schedule. Needless to say, a dozen other factors come into play in determining what any team actually does.

54% of Teams that had a tougher schedule lost more games in the next year (only 39% won more and 7% won the same number) and 59% of Teams that had an easier schedule won more games the next season (41% won fewer).

So, there are "lies, d*&^ed" lies and statistics," but I hope this gives a little context to the discussion.

Now, I can't wait for the season to begin.

Did you factor in if a team got better through fa and the draft? Injuries?

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Did you factor in if a team got better through fa and the draft? Injuries?

As I said, this is not a clear or sure indicator and that's what I meant by "a dozen other factors." So, it doesn't predict the outcome on its own. However, I did find it interesting that teams that have tougher schedules, across the board, are slightly more likely to lose more games and teams that have easier schedules, across the board, are slightly more likely to win more. It's based three years of data, so I can't dismiss it out of hand, but also wouldn't use it to predict how a team will perform, as Clayton did.