NEW ARTICLE: 2023 Patriots Schedule Prediction: The Road to 12 Wins

[PatsFans.com Article]

2023 Patriots Schedule Prediction: The Road to 12 Wins
Ian Logue
After Thursday night's schedule release, here's a full week-by-week at the Patriots 2023 schedule, along with a prediction of how each game might play out.

The post 2023 Patriots Schedule Prediction: The Road to 12 Wins appeared first on PatsFans.com.

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[archstanton543]

I'll have whatever Ian's smoking.

 

[crawhammer]

You'll regret putting that in writing. 5-1 in the division? Really?

If I were to put percentages on the Patriots divisional record:

6-0 1%
5-1 9%
4-2 12%
3-3 20%
2-4 35%
1-5 18%
0-6 5%

 

[Ian]

You'll regret putting that in writing. 5-1 in the division? Really?

I regret nothing

I got annihilated on air last year when WEEI's Merloni and Fauria decided to start their segment with the other preseason way-too-early prediction I wrote, which - at the time - was written with the understanding they'd pick up from where they left off in 2021 and improve, not turn into the you-know-what-show that obviously played out on offense last year.

I was caught off guard because I certainly didn't expect WEEI to see it, let alone talk about it, especially when it was essentially just a thing I wrote with a week-by-week look at how things might play out.

It's always a blast when you hear from people you haven't talked to in years telling you they decided to embarrass you on the radio and you find out about it after the fact.

Steve needed me to cover his column that Sunday, and I wrote my reaction to it, which a couple of reporters caught and reached out and told me they also heard it and thought it was kind of s****y of them to do what they did, especially without even reaching out to ask/talk about it. Whatever, it was what it was.

Anyway, what's funny about this is that if you're looking at it from a big-picture standpoint, it's definitely easy to dismiss 12-wins as a possibility. But when you do it week-by-week without looking at the record until the end and sort of imagine how one week might turn out before moving on to the next and doing the same thing, it's a different story.

Just like during every season, when you look at a tough match-up heading into that next game, you don't automatically pencil it in as a loss. In that one moment, you might feel like they might not win, but that they still have a shot based on whatever the storylines are at the time. That's essentially what something like this is. You imagine how a game might go, and then you move on to the next, etc. Whatever the record is at the end, it is what it is.

 

[h0c2000]

The author thinks this team is worse than last years team?

 

[archstanton543]

The author thinks this team is worse than last years team?

It's called "The Road To 12 Wins".

The Pats won 8 games last year.

 

[Ian]

The author thinks this team is worse than last years team?

The author went through each week and 12 ended up being the final total after I got to the end. Obviously, it may/may not play out that way.

 

[Ian]

It's called "The Road To 12 Wins".

The Pats won 8 games last year.

I had 13 wins the year before (I wrote that in June), again, I was also under the assumption they weren't going to be the disaster they were. I'm guessing that's what he's referring to, is that right @h0c2000 ? LOL, or did you miss that piece that got me killed last year?

 

[Ian]

You'll regret putting that in writing. 5-1 in the division? Really?

If I were to put percentages on the Patriots divisional record:

6-0 1%
5-1 9%
4-2 12%
3-3 20%
2-4 35%
1-5 18%
0-6 5%

Also, I have zero faith in Rodgers, and I think he'll fold if that last game is a meaningful one.

I also feel like if they can get that first one against Miami (which is at home this time), the Dolphins might be a mess by the second meeting. If the Patriots are playing well by then, and they're getting better instead of worse, they should have a shot. I mean, if they don't give up the strip sack, and Adrian Phillips doesn't get hurt at the end of the half (which the Dolphins took advantage of), they don't go down 17-0. I'd like to think that kind of thing won't happen this time around.

 

[TheRainMaker]

They catch one or two divisional teams in a "weather" game or Tua is injured and go 2-4 at best. This roster is pretty bad. This is a 7 win team.

 

[Ian]

They catch one or two divisional teams in a "weather" game or Tua is injured and go 2-4 at best. This roster is pretty bad. This is a 7 win team.

I mean, they were worse last year and won eight and could have actually won 10 - even as bad as they were. Why would you say seven...?

 

[archstanton543]

I mean, they were worse last year and won eight and could have actually won 10 - even as bad as they were. Why would you say seven...?

Playing slight devil's advocate, the schedule is much more difficult this year.

 

[TheRainMaker]

I mean, they were worse last year and won eight and could have actually won 10 - even as bad as they were. Why would you say seven...?

The division is at it's best for the first time since the late 90's. Those late 90's Pats teams had way better rosters, but came in 4th place (1998) and last place in 1999. Their schedule is ranked the toughest. Yes, some teams will drop off, but it won't be much. Pats are 5-15 against teams .500 or better since 2021. This roster isn't much better in some areas (WR), worse in others (OL), and with some question marks (rookies).

Coaching staff is still not that great.

Bill didn't do a good job building around a guy he drafted in the first round 2 years ago. Mac will be this season's fall guy....again.

 

[Ian]

Playing slight devil's advocate, the schedule is much more difficult this year.

I agree. Although it's funny, I had them losing against the Giants, and that could be swapped with any of the Division games I thought they'd win.

 

[Ian]

The division is at it's best for the first time since the late 90's. Those late 90's Pats teams had way better rosters, but came in 4th place (1998) and last place in 1999. Their schedule is ranked the toughest. Yes, some teams will drop off, but it won't be much. Pats are 5-15 against teams .500 or better since 2021. This roster isn't much better in some areas (WR), worse in others (OL), and with some question marks (rookies).

Coaching staff is still not that great.

Bill didn't do a good job building around a guy he drafted in the first round 2 years ago. Mac will be this season's fall guy....again.

It is, but Rodgers is certainly the wild card. I feel like some people view him as the player from 3+ years ago, not who he's been. He's a guy I just feel like doesn't want it as bad as he used to and gets frustrated when things get "hard." They almost beat him with Zappe last year, and I don't see him as unbeatable.

As for the coaching staff, even as bad as they were last year, they were in every game. If it's close, and they're at least scoring points, they'll have a shot.

But I do agree - it's all on Mac. I'd also like to think O'Brien will make as big of an impact as Tom Curran feels he will. The biggest difference is at least O'Brien should be able to handle the flow of the game better and adjust more on the fly compared to Patricia, who had a decent plan at times out of the gate and after the half, but not quite as well in the second or fourth quarters.

 

[h0c2000]

The author went through each week and 12 ended up being the final total after I got to the end.

Typical sports media click bait article. That same author had the Pats at 13 wins preseason last year.

 

[crawhammer]

I got annihilated on air last year when WEEI's Merloni and Fauria decided to start their segment with the other preseason way-too-early prediction I wrote, which - at the time - was written with the understanding they'd pick up from where they left off in 2021 and improve, not turn into the you-know-what-show that obviously played out on offense last year.

I was caught off guard because I certainly didn't expect WEEI to see it, let alone talk about it, especially when it was essentially just a thing I wrote with a week-by-week look at how things might play out.

It's always a blast when you hear from people you haven't to in years telling you they decided to embarrass you on the radio and you find out about it after the fact.

Steve needed me to cover his column that Sunday, and I wrote my reaction to it, which a couple of reporters caught and reached out and told me they also heard it and thought it was kind of s****y of them to do what they did, especially without even reaching out to ask/talk about it. Whatever, it was what it was.

I wasn't aware of that situation. Doesn't sound like they were very fair about it. They should have had you on air during the segment to state your case. I personally don't listen to WEEI... maybe a little during the season. The Sports Hub programming sounds heavily scripted to me, I can't stand listening to it.

Also, I have zero faith in Rodgers, and I think he'll fold if that last game is a meaningful one.

I agree on Rodgers but I think he gets that team into the playoffs. I think he's still got a couple of top caliber seasons left in him. After the way the NFCCG ended against the Bucs in 2020, I also lost complete faith in Rodgers ever winning another Super Bowl. He's a great regular season quarterback though, just like Peyton Manning. I can't see the Patriots sweeping Rodgers and the Jets... probably going to split 1-1.

I also feel like if they can get that first one against Miami (which is at home this time), the Dolphins might be a mess by the second meeting. If the Patriots are playing well by then, and they're getting better instead of worse, they should have a shot. I mean, if they don't give up the strip sack, and Adrian Phillips doesn't get hurt at the end of the half (which the Dolphins took advantage of), they don't go down 17-0. I'd like to think that kind of thing won't happen this time around.

They have to beat the Dolphins at Gillette, I see it as their best opportunity to get a win in the division. As far as the second meeting, it's going to be all about Tua's availability. Tua was great last season in that offense with superstars Hill and Waddle... and who knows how much of the season he played concussed. A healthy Dolphins offense is going to be hard to slow down. Their defense, which sucked last season, should be better. Ultimately I see another split here.

I have no faith in the Patriots beating the Bills. Let's get a fair fight first. I have a hard time going from getting dominated to winning a game. 2-0 against the Bills seems like the safest bet with their schedule. 2-4 in the division.

 

[TheRainMaker]

It is, but Rodgers is certainly the wild card. I feel like some people view him as the player from 3+ years ago, not who he's been. He's a guy I just feel like doesn't want it as bad as he used to and gets frustrated when things get "hard." They almost beat him with Zappe last year, and I don't see him as unbeatable.

Green Bay had a terrible roster last year. The pressure is certainly on him for this season.

But I do agree - it's all on Mac. I'd also like to think O'Brien will make as big of an impact as Tom Curran feels he will. The biggest difference is at least O'Brien should be able to handle the flow of the game better and adjust more on the fly compared to Patricia, who had a decent plan at times out of the gate and after the half, but not quite as well in the second or fourth quarters.

They will be better, but again, I don't like what Bill did for Mac and even Bill O'Brien. Aside from the additions of Schuster and Gesicki, it's not enough.

 

[Ian]

Green Bay had a terrible roster last year. The pressure is certainly on him for this season.

They will be better, but again, I don't like what Bill did for Mac and even Bill O'Brien. Aside from the additions of Schuster and Gesicki, it's not enough.

The scheme in and of itself is going to make a bigger difference than I think all of us might think. The lack of options to audible to in certain defensive situations last year I think was a big issue, that and obviously the routes. It sounds like, at least based off the reports, the latter is already being addressed.

Clearly the offensive line is the other question, and it'll be a while before we find out if that's any better than it was last year. One would have to hope so...or that could be another issue.

 

[h0c2000]

@Ian That sucks about WEEI. Look on the bright side, no one heard it.