dryheat44
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
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- Sep 14, 2004
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In order to try looking at our possible first round selections from a different angle, I looked through the last several first round selections from Team Belichick:
Graham
Warren
Wilfork
Watson
Mankins
Maroney
I see three different reasons why these guys were drafted:
1) Clear upgrade over current starter (Graham and Mankins - whom I believe was initially drafted to replace the Ashworth/Gorin RT tandem). If Belichick is going to make a big trade up, the Graham acquisition suggests it would be for players in this category.
2) Preparing a year in advance for a player not expected to return (Maroney and Warren, as we had Big Ted on a one-year deal).
3) Rare athlete who can't be passed up (Wilfork, Watson. Warren and Graham also qualify) - BB has said that he spends a disproportionate amount of high picks on defensive linemen and tight ends because there are only so many football players who have those skill sets/physical attributes)
Looking at the projected top 35 or so players, does this point clearly to any players in particular?
1) Which starting spots can be upgraded in this draft? The short list is probably Steve Neal and Eugene Wilson. Ben Grubbs would probably supplant Neal within the first month of the season. I think I value Wilson more than most, but most people would probably argue that Reggie Nelson would be an upgrade. Landry certainly would, but we won't get him. I also don't think Nelson is worth a first round pick, but that's my minority opinion.
2) Which important players do not have a contract beyond 2007? Well, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Tedy Bruschi, and a cluster of receivers (Caldwell, Gaffney, Stallworth, and maybe Brown) and depth DBs (Scott, Gay). I can't think of any player who may get cut for cap reasons. So who in the draft could be targeted? Bruschi's production probably can't be replaced by anyone in this draft. David Harris would be the best bet. Willis is a possibility. We're left with a large number of WRs and DBs. WRs I can see Anthony Gonzalez and Robert Meachem fitting into the Patriots offense. The only CBs I'm comfortable with being able to play man defense are Darrelle Revis and Josh Wilson.
3) 3-4 defensive linemen in the top tier (that could conceivably fall) are Alan Branch (unprepared and out of shape for Pro Day) and Adam Carriker. Greg Olson is the lone tight end. Olson is essentially Ben Watson, with less blocking skill, so it's hard to see BB go that route with Watson signed for three more years.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the Patriots will draft one or two of:
Ben Grubbs
Reggie Nelson
Robert Meachem
Anthoney Gonzalez
David Harris
Patrick Willis
Darrelle Revis
Josh Wilson
Alan Branch
Adam Carriker
Graham
Warren
Wilfork
Watson
Mankins
Maroney
I see three different reasons why these guys were drafted:
1) Clear upgrade over current starter (Graham and Mankins - whom I believe was initially drafted to replace the Ashworth/Gorin RT tandem). If Belichick is going to make a big trade up, the Graham acquisition suggests it would be for players in this category.
2) Preparing a year in advance for a player not expected to return (Maroney and Warren, as we had Big Ted on a one-year deal).
3) Rare athlete who can't be passed up (Wilfork, Watson. Warren and Graham also qualify) - BB has said that he spends a disproportionate amount of high picks on defensive linemen and tight ends because there are only so many football players who have those skill sets/physical attributes)
Looking at the projected top 35 or so players, does this point clearly to any players in particular?
1) Which starting spots can be upgraded in this draft? The short list is probably Steve Neal and Eugene Wilson. Ben Grubbs would probably supplant Neal within the first month of the season. I think I value Wilson more than most, but most people would probably argue that Reggie Nelson would be an upgrade. Landry certainly would, but we won't get him. I also don't think Nelson is worth a first round pick, but that's my minority opinion.
2) Which important players do not have a contract beyond 2007? Well, Eugene Wilson, Asante Samuel, Tedy Bruschi, and a cluster of receivers (Caldwell, Gaffney, Stallworth, and maybe Brown) and depth DBs (Scott, Gay). I can't think of any player who may get cut for cap reasons. So who in the draft could be targeted? Bruschi's production probably can't be replaced by anyone in this draft. David Harris would be the best bet. Willis is a possibility. We're left with a large number of WRs and DBs. WRs I can see Anthony Gonzalez and Robert Meachem fitting into the Patriots offense. The only CBs I'm comfortable with being able to play man defense are Darrelle Revis and Josh Wilson.
3) 3-4 defensive linemen in the top tier (that could conceivably fall) are Alan Branch (unprepared and out of shape for Pro Day) and Adam Carriker. Greg Olson is the lone tight end. Olson is essentially Ben Watson, with less blocking skill, so it's hard to see BB go that route with Watson signed for three more years.
Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that the Patriots will draft one or two of:
Ben Grubbs
Reggie Nelson
Robert Meachem
Anthoney Gonzalez
David Harris
Patrick Willis
Darrelle Revis
Josh Wilson
Alan Branch
Adam Carriker