Signing a WR for $6.9M = Senseless

[PATRlOT]

Out of any position that could be fixed through the draft, I would not want to start with WRs.

 

[primetime]

I guess there's two divergent schools of thought, here. Randy Moss isn't walking through that door, so it's either re-signing Welker or using his money to go after 'value' UFAs.

There may be some who would endorse splashing for a big-money guy like Wallace or Jennings, but I think that goes against the doctrine of just about any perennial winner. Name a regular contender that has signed a UFA (besides Peyton Manning - QBs are an exception) that has contributed significantly. I can think of just one from the last couple years, and that's Justin Smith. And Justin Smith should remind Patriots fans of Aaron Schobel, a player who was vastly undervalued (Schobel probably deserved to be the #3 DE of the last decade after Strahan and Taylor) because he toiled away in a small market for a mediocre team but caused misery to any team that he faced. In other words, a value player when he hit the market.

So let's take a look at the realistic options:

1) Re-sign Welker. My head falls in this camp. You can't let Welker go, he's Brady's buddy and makes the offense churn. He may cost a pretty penny, but the team has salary cap space and Brady signed that extension assuming it would help the team bring back Welker. You have the same core group as last year, plus Ballard. Edelman probably comes back, and the other two WR spots are taken up by veteran minimum free agents such as David Nelson and a draft pick like Da'Rick Rogers, who gets to apprentice for a year. This leaves less money to sign defensive free agents, and you may lack a guy who can stretch the field just like last year.

2) Value UFAs. My heart lies here. Choosing to let Welker go essentially frees up $8m to spend. The middle of the field is too crowded, and Hernandez is the #1 WR in all but the media guides. Edelman will come cheap (and cover the punt return slot) and can play both inside and outside and knows the system. Lloyd stays, and the other spots are filled with cheaper guys with upside. David Nelson, Domenik Hixon, and the soon-to-be-released Darius Heyward-Bey are my favorites, but there are plenty of others such as Josh Cribbs, who could be a kick returner as well. Adding a backup H-back type like Delanie Walker or James Casey is a possibility as well. You figure Jake Ballard is going to play as a third tight-end on a substantial proportion of downs. Danny Amendola is a possibility, but he might price himself out of the 'value' range. The final WR spot is taken with a rookie like Keenan Allen or Da'Rick Rogers. The money saved on Welker as opposed to the value guys, maybe $4m, gives you flexibility to fill a hole on defense with a guy like Ed Reed, Chris Gamble, or Osi Umeniyora.

The problem with this is that it's all too similar to the attempt to bring in a zillion guys to compete last year, who promptly lose out in camp to a geriatric Deion Branch. It's also eerily reminiscent of 2006, when the value WR thing just fell flat on its face. Though this time there's at least Lloyd and Hernandez, plus Gronk, who are all proven commodities in the system and will be on the field on almost every down.


Frankly, either works for me. If they think they can let Welker go, I'm confident Hernandez and the tight ends pick up the slack in the middle of the field... so long as they bring in a field-stretcher type (Hixon or Heyward-Bey come to mind).

 

[Claremonster]

So should we just not bother drafting that position anymore?

Consider BB's draft picks for TE in order:

Dave Stachelski (drafted before Tom Brady!)
Jabari Holloway
Arther Love
Daniel Graham (1st rounder)
Spencer Nead
Ben Watson (another 1st rounder)
Andy Stokes
Dave Thomas
Garrett Mills

All of them were incredibly disappointing and while Graham and Watson played many games, they were not quite what we were hoping for based on where they were drafted.

Then with his next two TEs, BB picks All-Pro Gronkowski and Pro Bowl caliber Aaron Hernandez. Imagine if he didn't bother drafting TEs since he's struggled with it.

Everyone misses on WR, it's hard to project. Everyone harps on us taking Chad Jackson before Greg Jennings, but the Giants drafted Sinorice Moss as well with Jennings on the board. Everyone complains about Bethel Johnson, forgetting that the Lions whiffed at #2 overall with Charles Rogers over Andre Johnson. The Cardinals should get credit for taking Anquan Boldin after our miss, but they also whiffed earlier by taking Bryant Johnson in the 1st round. Yes, we took Brandon Tate ahead of Mike Wallace. Kudos to the Steelers, until you remember they took Kraig Urbik ahead of Mike Wallace.

So yes, we've missed on some picks, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't keep picking. In fact, it only proves that the more picks you make, the more you enhance your odds of getting lucky.

Where did I say that? Please explain...try not using tight ends as an example of wide outs, because we isn't talking about them.

 

[Claremonster]

Out of any position that could be fixed through the draft, I would not want to start with WRs.

McD should be the one who chooses. His picks supercedes BB's. ForSerious.

 

[borg]

How do justify that statement with a straight face, B. He didn't miss a single regular season game in his first 2 years and only missed games last year with a broken bone. How is that being "made of glass".

Three breaks in 12 months. If the guy wasn't a Patriot this site would have renamed him Glasskowski. But he's a Patriot so the subject is taboo. My advice to Gronk...less Red Bull, more milk.......fortify.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Where did I say that? Please explain...try not using tight ends as an example of wide outs, because we isn't talking about them.

I'm just saying that regardless of previous history with the draft, you have to continue to make picks. Just because BB has missed on a few WRs doesn't mean he will always miss with WRs.

The TE position is just an example of how someone can miss so many times (even worse than WR actually) and still find incredible talent, two in the same draft even.

The point is that he shouldn't just give up on the position just because he's missed on some selections.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I'm just saying that regardless of previous history with the draft, you have to continue to make picks. Just because BB has missed on a few WRs doesn't mean he will always miss with WRs.

The TE position is just an example of how someone can miss so many times (even worse than WR actually) and still find incredible talent, two in the same draft even.

The point is that he shouldn't just give up on the position just because he's missed on some selections.

It's less about Belichick unable to draft WRs - it's more about him knowing that rookie WRs typically take a season or two to develop.

I think if you asked any GM they would tell you that if you absolutely need a deep threat WR, the draft is not the place to expect to find a sure fire starter

That doesn't mean Belichick won't draft a WR, it just means he won't be counting on that WR to play a major role - so if Belichick believes that deep WR is a priority, I expect him to address that with a veteran.

 

[Brady6]

A) I missed the part where we retained our assets of Welker, Talib, Vollmer, Edelman, Woodhead, Thomas, Arrington and Chung.

B) It is extremely unlikely that a draftee will able to be our top wideout as a rookie. Besides, you must know that unless we exercise their option on Lloyd, Slater and Ebert are our top wide receivers.

C) You have decided that $6.9M is too much to pay a starting wide receiver on a passing team. You'd rather rely on rookies. I'm certainly glad that you aren't our GM.

D) I AGREE that the patriots build teams through the draft and do not overpay for free agents. I AGREE that our preference should be to keep our assets (that is, overpay our own) rather than overpay players from other teams.

E) The draft is about finding future starters. Also, we have only 3 top picks. Almost everyone believes that at least one of these picks needs to be a corner. While I'm fine with an early WR, expecting a #29 - #60 WR to start is unreasonable.

F) The BOTTOM LINE is that we need to replace 7 players. One, our #4 safety, COULD be a draft choice although many prefer a free agent even for this position.

Did we have any big name free agent WR's when we won 3 SB's?

Ravens
Giants
Green Bay


None of those teams signed big name free agents but they did all draft WR and win SB's.. Your the type of guy who wants instant gratification and you get that with big names but its not a winning formula and if we have to watch an entire rebuild for years it would be because of those types of moves.

 

[Brady6]

A) I missed the part where we retained our assets of Welker, Talib, Vollmer, Edelman, Woodhead, Thomas, Arrington and Chung.

B) It is extremely unlikely that a draftee will able to be our top wideout as a rookie. Besides, you must know that unless we exercise their option on Lloyd, Slater and Ebert are our top wide receivers.

C) You have decided that $6.9M is too much to pay a starting wide receiver on a passing team. You'd rather rely on rookies. I'm certainly glad that you aren't our GM.

D) I AGREE that the patriots build teams through the draft and do not overpay for free agents. I AGREE that our preference should be to keep our assets (that is, overpay our own) rather than overpay players from other teams.

E) The draft is about finding future starters. Also, we have only 3 top picks. Almost everyone believes that at least one of these picks needs to be a corner. While I'm fine with an early WR, expecting a #29 - #60 WR to start is unreasonable.

F) The BOTTOM LINE is that we need to replace 7 players. One, our #4 safety, COULD be a draft choice although many prefer a free agent even for this position.

player & transacationteam & positiondate
1
Santonio Holmes at
Wide Receiver
$11,000,000
2
Andre Johnson at
Wide Receiver
$9,500,000
3
Brandon Marshall at
Wide Receiver
$9,100,000
4
Sidney Rice at
Wide Receiver
$8,500,000
5
Darrius Heyward-Bey at
Wide Receiver
$7,721,000
6
DeSean Jackson at
Wide Receiver
$6,750,000
7
Anquan Boldin at
Wide Receiver
$6,000,000
8
Roddy White at
Wide Receiver
$5,600,000

Pierre Garcon at
Wide Receiver
$5,600,000
10
Larry Fitzgerald at
Wide Receiver
$5,000,000

How many of them made it deep in the playoffs other than Boldin? And he was the #2 on his team.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm surprised not to see more talk about Danario Alexander who received the lowest RFA tender from the Chargers. He's 6'5", ran a 4.40 and vertical jumped 41". I know there's plenty of knee issues there but the only thing it'll cost to give up is money (he went undrafted) he must be considered worth the risk surely?

 

[Brady6]

I'm surprised not to see more talk about Danario Alexander who received the lowest RFA tender from the Chargers. He's 6'5", ran a 4.40 and vertical jumped 41". I know there's plenty of knee issues there but the only thing it'll cost to give up is money (he went undrafted) he must be considered worth the risk surely?

JM had him in STL and he never did much with him and we didn't look at him when he got released last year despite bringing in Salas and Hoom so I have to think something is there that makes him a non option

 

[manxman2601]

JM had him in STL and he never did much with him and we didn't look at him when he got released last year despite bringing in Salas and Hoom so I have to think something is there that makes him a non option

Fair point. Although maybe the 600+ yards on 37 receptions might change their mind.

 

[ausbacker]

I'm surprised not to see more talk about Danario Alexander who received the lowest RFA tender from the Chargers. He's 6'5", ran a 4.40 and vertical jumped 41". I know there's plenty of knee issues there but the only thing it'll cost to give up is money (he went undrafted) he must be considered worth the risk surely?

I watched some of his performances for the Chargers. He looked every bit a playmaker. The point becomes, was that a flash in the pan or can Alexander replicate that on a regular basis?

 

[Brady6]

Fair point. Although maybe the 600+ yards on 37 receptions might change their mind.

I'd hope so but also wonder why SD didn't tender him higher.

 

[Brady6]

Fair point. Although maybe the 600+ yards on 37 receptions might change their mind.

Also he has only caught 83 of 159 career targets.. That doesn't work if you're playing with TB he'd stop throwing it to you.

 

[manxman2601]

I'd hope so but also wonder why SD didn't tender him higher.

Yes, this was the one question I had too. Perhaps those knees literally are almost worthless.

 

[mgteich]

The patriots will sign a major free agent wide receiver. My strong hope is that player is Welker. This team will not simply play without a top receiver. It is not a matter of instant gratification. It is simply the way to fill holes at WR. Rookie WR cannot be counted on to have a major impact.

Of course, we should ALSO draft a wide receiver highly in the draft. Hey, that worked ten years ago for us. That strategy might work again.

Did we have any big name free agent WR's when we won 3 SB's?

Ravens
Giants
Green Bay


None of those teams signed big name free agents but they did all draft WR and win SB's.. Your the type of guy who wants instant gratification and you get that with big names but its not a winning formula and if we have to watch an entire rebuild for years it would be because of those types of moves.

 

[Brady6]

The patriots will sign a major free agent wide receiver. My strong hope is that player is Welker. This team will not simply play without a top receiver. It is not a matter of instant gratification. It is simply the way to fill holes at WR. Rookie WR cannot be counted on to have a major impact.

Of course, we should ALSO draft a wide receiver highly in the draft. Hey, that worked ten years ago for us. That strategy might work again.

I have no problem paying Welker his value because we received production in the past at a low cost. I just have a problem overpaying for a Wallace or Jennings or already gave their low cost production to other teams and now require high pay for everything they give them.

So far we've only give Welker $4.6M over his career here so even if we gave him the 5yr $37M contract rumored we are paying an average of $5.87M for 11 years of Welker. That's good business. Paying 10-12 a year for Wallace during every year of Pats career isn't.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I have no problem paying Welker his value because we received production in the past at a low cost. I just have a problem overpaying for a Wallace or Jennings or already gave their low cost production to other teams and now require high pay for everything they give them..

You never pay a player for past production. You pay him for expected production.

If you think in 2013-2015, WW will perform at the same level as he has since 2007, then you pay him what you think you shoud. If you don't, you don't pay him just because he performed well in the past...

So far we've only give Welker $4.6M over his career here so even if we gave him the 5yr $37M contract rumored we are paying an average of $5.87M for 11 years of Welker. That's good business. Paying 10-12 a year for Wallace during every year of Pats career isn't.

No question WW has been a steal for the Pats but the team should not pay him for past performance.

Agree on Wallace and Jennings. They are both coming off down years and the team has no idea how they will perform in this offense.

 

[Brady6]

You never pay a player for past production. You pay him for expected production.

If you think in 2013-2015, WW will perform at the same level as he has since 2007, then you pay him what you think you shoud. If you don't, you don't pay him just because he performed well in the past...



No question WW has been a steal for the Pats but the team should not pay him for past performance.

Agree on Wallace and Jennings. They are both coming off down years and the team has no idea how they will perform in this offense.

I expect Welker to continue to be at his production. My point is you overpay from beginning to end when you bring someone in after their rookie contract from another team if they're good NFL players..