Signing a WR for $6.9M = Senseless

[voluntarysaftey]

You can't compare a free agent's salary to one that signs when they still have 2 years remaining on their rookie contract plus another 2 years with the franchise tag -- Otherwise you might as well never sign a free agent

If gronk was a free agent last year, he would've gotten alot more than he did from the pats.

 

[JoeSixPat]

With three starting caliber TEs, it wouldn't surprise me to see Hernandez line up as a WR - that would allow them to have Hernandez, Gronk, and Ballard - not to mention other running/pass catching options like Woodhead - all on the field at once providing a pretty good offense even if Welker doesn't return.

Those are all great short to mid field options.

What the team lacks is someone to stretch the field - and despite all the catches those guys bring in, don't think for a second that Belichick doesn't realize how much a difference that can make in opening up the field for everyone on the team - not to mention reducing the pressure and the hits on Brady.

In terms of the draft, a deep WR is a position that typically requires some development. It's an area where the differnce in the speed and duration of the college game, compared to the pro game, really shows up in a big way.

So if the Patriots draft a WR, don't be expecting instant production. It can happen - but usually, if they're lucky, a player will develop in 2-3 years.

If you want someone NOW - and I think Brady and Belichick are getting a little impatient for Super Bowl #4 - that probably means you're going to have to pay a little bit for a proven deep threat.

But IMO it's worth it.

 

[Claremonster]

six failures and three successes. If you look at other teams, that's an average success/failure rate. And if you look at the first two rounds, that comes down to one success and two failures. looking at general success rates:

a. Picks 1-14 – 65.4%
b. Picks 14-28 – 50.0%
c. Picks 29-48 – 37.2%
d. Picks 49-74 – 18.8%
e. Picks 75-114 – 18.0%
f. Picks 115-200 – 2.7%
g. Picks 200-Later – 3.3%

So we have a 33% success rate picking in the 2nd round (we've never picked a first rounder) and the league average is approx 28% so in answer to your question, yes I can deny it.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&r...=V-gHuQARSbfZnoC7CXuebg&bvm=bv.43287494,d.ZGU

BB should let McD pick the wide outs.

 

[Claremonster]

With three starting caliber TEs, it wouldn't surprise me to see Hernandez line up as a WR - that would allow them to have Hernandez, Gronk, and Ballard - not to mention other running/pass catching options like Woodhead - all on the field at once providing a pretty good offense even if Welker doesn't return.

Those are all great short to mid field options.

What the team lacks is someone to stretch the field - and despite all the catches those guys bring in, don't think for a second that Belichick doesn't realize how much a difference that can make in opening up the field for everyone on the team - not to mention reducing the pressure and the hits on Brady.

In terms of the draft, a deep WR is a position that typically requires some development. It's an area where the differnce in the speed and duration of the college game, compared to the pro game, really shows up in a big way.

So if the Patriots draft a WR, don't be expecting instant production. It can happen - but usually, if they're lucky, a player will develop in 2-3 years.

If you want someone NOW - and I think Brady and Belichick are getting a little impatient for Super Bowl #1 - that probably means you're going to have to pay a little bit for a proven deep threat.

But IMO it's worth it.

What the team lacks is someone to stretch the field...100% agree! The last few years that is why good teams could contain the Pats. That and Gronk being injured in the playoffs with NO replacement.

 

[Raymond]

Deon Branch signed with Seattle for about that amount way back in 2006.
The going rate now for a second tier receiver is 8 mil. per year and 14-18 mil.
for a top tier. This is why Lloyd was such a bargain., 3yrs. for 12 mil.

Throw Deion out of your numbers. He was the 20th ranked WR in 04 and he got top 5 money from Seattle. It's no wonder why the pats said goodbye.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

BB doesn't have the best of fortunes with drafting them. You cannot deny that.

So should we just not bother drafting that position anymore?

Consider BB's draft picks for TE in order:

Dave Stachelski (drafted before Tom Brady!)
Jabari Holloway
Arther Love
Daniel Graham (1st rounder)
Spencer Nead
Ben Watson (another 1st rounder)
Andy Stokes
Dave Thomas
Garrett Mills

All of them were incredibly disappointing and while Graham and Watson played many games, they were not quite what we were hoping for based on where they were drafted.

Then with his next two TEs, BB picks All-Pro Gronkowski and Pro Bowl caliber Aaron Hernandez. Imagine if he didn't bother drafting TEs since he's struggled with it.

Everyone misses on WR, it's hard to project. Everyone harps on us taking Chad Jackson before Greg Jennings, but the Giants drafted Sinorice Moss as well with Jennings on the board. Everyone complains about Bethel Johnson, forgetting that the Lions whiffed at #2 overall with Charles Rogers over Andre Johnson. The Cardinals should get credit for taking Anquan Boldin after our miss, but they also whiffed earlier by taking Bryant Johnson in the 1st round. Yes, we took Brandon Tate ahead of Mike Wallace. Kudos to the Steelers, until you remember they took Kraig Urbik ahead of Mike Wallace.

So yes, we've missed on some picks, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't keep picking. In fact, it only proves that the more picks you make, the more you enhance your odds of getting lucky.

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

Can you tell me any WR other than Johnson Jr. that does more for a passing game than Rob Gronkowski? I can't and for that reason I cannot understand why we'd hand out a contract that offers more than Gronks $6.9M per year (8yr/$55M) deal.

I get they have different position titles but why would I pay more for less because you have WR next to your name and the other has TE?

If I am BB I am fixing WR through the draft just like I did TE and if fans can't understand that takes some time oh well but wasting money is bad business and doesn't ever end well for the franchise.

I'm not sure I follow...
1- Gronk signs an extension intended to balance fair value for the best TE in the league with the fact that he had 2 seasons of rookie contract left when he signed the extension.

2- Therefore, all other pass catchers must be paid a lesser AAV than Gronk, despite being at other points in their careers with different circumstances surrounding the contract they are (or aren't) negotiating.

Is this the line of thinking? Doesn't make much sense to me. Contracts aren't signed in a vacuum.

 

[BradyFTW!]

There's an awful lot of stupid showing up in this thread.

I can't wait until Belichick drafts a great receiver one of these years, just so we won't have to hear this ridiculous crap anymore. Before WR it was TE (until Gronk and Hernandez were drafted), and before that it was LB (until Mayo, Spikes, and Hightower were drafted).

It takes a special kind of ignorance to look at a sample size of a half-dozen picks and say "clearly, Bill Belichick can't draft wide receivers."

 

[Froob]

,...and STILL wound up with the 11th best passing attack, the 7th best scoring offense, and in the AFCCG a bad spot and a few HORRID calls away from another superbowl win. But on the other hand, love your perfect 20-20 hindsight.

In hindsight it was a huge mistake to let both Givens and Branch go and replace them with nobodies. Cost them a super bowl. Although the refs were a huge factor....still can't believe Hayden got away with that pass interference...not quite sure why Gronk's bargin contract is a good reason to not pay top dollar for a top receiver. They need to sign one big receiver weather it's Welker, Jennings, or someone else. At least Amendola. Letting Welker go and cutting Lloyd and not adding any quality receiver would end up being a HUGE mistake. Offense cost them Super Bowl 42 & 46 NOT the defense.

 

[mgteich]

I strongly disagree.

The fact that a good wide receiver costs more than we pay Gronkowski is irrelevant. We NEED quality wide receivers. IMHO, we will pay more than $6.9 for one. Of course, I hope that the one is Welker. In addition, we will pay about $5M for a second receiver, who could be named Lloyd; and $2.5M to $3M for a 3rd receiver that could be Edelman.

Can you tell me any WR other than Johnson Jr. that does more for a passing game than Rob Gronkowski? I can't and for that reason I cannot understand why we'd hand out a contract that offers more than Gronks $6.9M per year (8yr/$55M) deal.

I get they have different position titles but why would I pay more for less because you have WR next to your name and the other has TE?

If I am BB I am fixing WR through the draft just like I did TE and if fans can't understand that takes some time oh well but wasting money is bad business and doesn't ever end well for the franchise.

 

[Brady6]

I strongly disagree.

The fact that a good wide receiver costs more than we pay Gronkowski is irrelevant. We NEED quality wide receivers. IMHO, we will pay more than $6.9 for one. Of course, I hope that the one is Welker. In addition, we will pay about $5M for a second receiver, who could be named Lloyd; and $2.5M to $3M for a 3rd receiver that could be Edelman.

Successful teams build through the draft and use their money to retain assets. They don't over pay for UFA's

 

[Brady6]

You can't compare a free agent's salary to one that signs when they still have 2 years remaining on their rookie contract plus another 2 years with the franchise tag -- Otherwise you might as well never sign a free agent

If gronk was a free agent last year, he would've gotten alot more than he did from the pats.

Correct that why you focus on the draft and then renew them early. You don't go out and over pay for player that brings less to the team.

 

[Froob]

Successful teams build through the draft and use their money to retain assets. They don't over pay for UFA's

I bet the Ravens are really kicking themselves for giving Boldin that big contract.

 

[Brady6]

I'm not sure I follow...
1- Gronk signs an extension intended to balance fair value for the best TE in the league with the fact that he had 2 seasons of rookie contract left when he signed the extension.

2- Therefore, all other pass catchers must be paid a lesser AAV than Gronk, despite being at other points in their careers with different circumstances surrounding the contract they are (or aren't) negotiating.

Is this the line of thinking? Doesn't make much sense to me. Contracts aren't signed in a vacuum.

No my point is we should not be looking to players at high price point in their careers. We should be drafting talent and then locking it up early like we did with them. I don't want pay a player more based on what he did before for another team.

 

[Brady6]

I bet the Ravens are really kicking themselves for giving Boldin that big contract.

The Boldin they may have cut because his contract is to costly?

 

[Brady6]

I bet the Ravens are really kicking themselves for giving Boldin that big contract.

Also the Ravens traded for Boldin http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=4970057 and extend his contract for 4yr/$28m. Big difference between that and paying a UFA in a bidding war.

 

[Froob]

Also the Ravens traded for Boldin Arizona Cardinals trade WR Anquan Boldin to Baltimore Ravens - ESPN and extend his contract for 4yr/$28m. Big difference between that and paying a UFA in a bidding war.

I know but, they still paid quite a bit for him. Sometimes you gotta pay for quality. You're crazy if you want to go into the season with just Gronk, Aaron, and whatever scrub wide outs they can find. There's a difference between paying big money for a good player and doing the redskins do. What do you want to do with all this cap space? It'd be a huge waste not to use it on some quality players.

 

[Brady6]

I know but, they still paid quite a bit for him. Sometimes you gotta pay for quality. You're crazy if you want to go into the season with just Gronk, Aaron, and whatever scrub wide outs they can find. There's a difference between paying big money for a good player and doing the redskins do. What do you want to do with all this cap space? It'd be a huge waste not to use it on some quality players.

28/4=7 that's a good contract. I'd prefer to trade for someone because the deal is much better when you have a player already under control.

 

[mgteich]

A) I missed the part where we retained our assets of Welker, Talib, Vollmer, Edelman, Woodhead, Thomas, Arrington and Chung.

B) It is extremely unlikely that a draftee will able to be our top wideout as a rookie. Besides, you must know that unless we exercise their option on Lloyd, Slater and Ebert are our top wide receivers.

C) You have decided that $6.9M is too much to pay a starting wide receiver on a passing team. You'd rather rely on rookies. I'm certainly glad that you aren't our GM.

D) I AGREE that the patriots build teams through the draft and do not overpay for free agents. I AGREE that our preference should be to keep our assets (that is, overpay our own) rather than overpay players from other teams.

E) The draft is about finding future starters. Also, we have only 3 top picks. Almost everyone believes that at least one of these picks needs to be a corner. While I'm fine with an early WR, expecting a #29 - #60 WR to start is unreasonable.

F) The BOTTOM LINE is that we need to replace 7 players. One, our #4 safety, COULD be a draft choice although many prefer a free agent even for this position.

Successful teams build through the draft and use their money to retain assets. They don't over pay for UFA's

 

[primetime]

That's what they tried in 2006 and ended up with Reche Caldwell and Doug Gabriel and a bunch of other stiffs. I would gladly pay more than $6.9M+ for Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Julio Jones, prob Jennings, D Thomas etc...

For their sakes, it's too bad you can't. I'm sure Green, Jones, and Thomas would all appreciate being paid exponentially more than they are right now too.