Should Chris Hanson be retained?

[DaBruinz]

Well, whatever Hanson brought to the table, BB liked it enough that he dumped Danny Baugher like a hot potato.

Baugher was dumped like a hot potato because he got arrested for fighting with his dad or something.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Baugher was dumped like a hot potato because he got arrested for fighting with his dad or something.

That was after Mr. Big Leg got dumped, nothing like a good depression to make you sock the ol' man.

 

[DaBruinz]

Agreed. I never understood why you wouldn't just want a punter like Scifres with a bomb of leg. Even if he can't get the optimal amount of hangtime for coverage to get down there, just kick the ball out of bounds. These guys practice so much trying to pin it inside the 20 and such, why couldn't you practice aiming towards the sidelines? Imagine having a guy like Scifres or Lechler who can absolutely bomb it like 70 yards and have the ball land out of bounds. It eliminates the concern about coverage getting there and it takes away the threat of a Reggie Bush, Leon Washington, Devin Hester, etc while giving you a huge advantage in the field position game.

You didn't watch when we had Todd Sauerbrun in here at the end of the year in 2006. He was regularly out-kicking the coverage. When you out-kick the coverage, opposing teams get really good returns. As for the idea of kicking it out of bounds all the time. Clearly it's not that easy or guys like Koenen and Lechler would be doing it all the time.

Now, I'm going to assume you know the basics of geometry. You should know that a kick that travels off at an angle doesn't go nearly as far down the field as a kick traveling straight... So, that gives the other team better field position in your scenario.

Hanson isn't the best punter out there. I can agree to that. But the reality is that the Pats have brought in 2 or 3 other punters to compete with Hanson and Hanson beats them out.

Would I like a Sam Koch, Jon Ryan or Michael Koenen? Sure. But they all only have 4 years in the league. Which means they should be RFA and I'm not sure why the KFFL doesn't list them as such..

 

[DaBruinz]

You're definitely not looking at the whole picture if you're looking at punts returned ALONE. Did you also happen to notice that New England also punts the LEAST outside of any team not from Denver or San Diego? Hanson only had to punt the ball 56 times ALL SEASON. It's not a big mystery why he had fewer kicks returned! The Patriots had the 3rd lowest punting total out of 32 teams in the NFL!! You can just blame Brady and Welker for all those damn 3rd down conversions that extend drives and keeps the punter off the field.

Other factors to look at - Touchbacks. By definition, they can't be returned, but they aren't good either, particularly if you're trying to pin them inside the 20.

And Net Yardage is still a useful stat to look at for the following reason - Net Yardage automatically subtracts the yardage that the returner accrued. So a guy like Lechler who had an Avg punt of 51.1 and a Net of 43.9 means that on average the ball was only returned 7.2 yards per punt. Since the official hang time per punt is not recorded, the return yardage allowed is basically our second biggest indicator of having a good punter.

Lechler only allowed 7.3 yard average return. Hanson on the other hand allowed a 9.0 average return. Matt Turk may be the most Underrated punter in the league with his measly 4.3 avg return per punt. He may not kick the ball as far as other guys, but it doesn't get returned as far either!

2009 NFL Player Punting Stats - National Football League - ESPN

So let's say that Inside the 20 is the result we like. Its one of the best results you can get. Fair catches are good too, however we don't know how many fair catches were ALSO inside the 20. Adding them both together would create inaccuracies so let's just focus on inside the 20. Touchbacks, we'll consider as shanks so we'll subtract them from punt totals. Whats the percentage of touchbacks on good punts? I'll call this good corner punt percentage or GCP for short.

Inside 20/Punt attempts - Touchbacks = Good Corner Punt Percantage or GCP
Average Return given up = AR

1. Shane Lechler AR = 7.3 GCP = 35.7%
2. Donnie Jones AR = 6.3 GCP = 42.5%
3. Dustin Colquitt AR = 7.1 GCP = 45.5%
4. Andy Lee AR = 8.7 GCP = 33%
5. Ben Graham AR = 10.5 GCP = 50.6%
6. Brian Moorman AR = 7.7 GCP = 31.3%
7. Mat McBriar AR = 8.3 GCP = 55.1%
8. Brandon Fields AR = 8.6 GCP = 36.2%
9. Matt Turk AR = 4.3 GCP = 39.3%
10. Mike Scifres AR = 11.5 GCP = 46%

32. Chris Hanson AR = 9.0 GCP = 35.2%

The number ranking, is the ranking by net yardage. Hanson has the lowest net yardage of any punter in the national football league. This is a fact. This is probably more a function of leg strength than anything else, though accuracy also factors. Shanked punts will obviously lead to overall lower net yardage.

Now the good corner punt percentage is interesting. Note that in the top 10, there appeared to be some punters that were significantly better at getting inside the 20 results without touchbacks than others. McBriar tops the charts at 55.1% followed by Ben Graham at 50.6% and Scifres comes in 3rd with 46%. On the other hand, there are also 2 punters in the top 10 with a lower GCP than Chris Hanson.

Does this make him a top 10 punter? Not when you also account for Net Yardage (#32 dead last), Average Return (#22), Total Touchbacks (Tied for #20 with 5 even though he punted the third LEAST of all punters in the NFL!).

Plus I didn't take the time to calculate the GCP of all the remaining other punters in the NFL. But if the top 10 sample is any indicator, the Elite punters in the NFL will usually have a GCP around 45% or higher and the mediocre ones will probably have a GCP around 35% or lower.

All of this to say - Hanson is a mediocre to poor punter at best. Let's try to get somebody a little better for 2010! Eh, BB? Are you listening?

WOW.. Nothing like trying to baffle people with BS...

Lechler had 63 of 96 punts returned. That is a 65% return rate.
Hanson had 20 of 56 returned. That is a 35.7% return rate.

Now, this whole thing of Good Corner Punt %. You clearly don't realize that subtracting the "shanks" from the number of punt attempts actually makes their numbers look better.

Lechler had 30 of 96 punts inside the 20. 31.25%.
Hanson had 18 of 56 inside the 20. 32.14%

Lechler only kicked 2 of his 96 punts out of bounds. 2.08%
Hanson kicked 8 of his 56. 14.28%

Lechler had 13 fair catches on 96 punts. Hanson had 16 on 56 punts.


Shane Lechler: Situational Stats
Chris Hanson: Situational Stats

What you have there are the situational stats for Lechler and Hanson.

75 of Lechler's 96 punts came between his 21 and 50 yard line. He also had 16 of them coming from inside his 20 yard line.

Hanson on the other hand, had 41 of his punts from between his 21 and 50, and only 6 from inside his 20. Hanson had 14 punts inside the opposing 21-49 yard line. While Hanson's nets weren't great for the other 2 categories, the 14 punts inside the 21-49 clearly dropped his net significantly.

Now, I am not saying that Hanson rocks or anything like that. I am saying that Hanson is just better than people want to give him credit for.

BTW, if you take touchbacks out as you did in your equation, the equation is not figuring out % of touchbacks on good punts...

 

[DaBruinz]

That was after Mr. Big Leg got dumped, nothing like a good depression to make you sock the ol' man.

Actually, Box, it was reported after he got dumped, but the dumping occurred after the incident..

 

[VJCPatriot]

BTW, if you take touchbacks out as you did in your equation, the equation is not figuring out % of touchbacks on good punts...

Umm yes I am because touchbacks are by definition bad punts. Instead of pinning the opponent inside the 20 you give em a free pass to the 20 yard line. Nobody should get credit for bad punts, and everyone is penalized equally for touchbacks. They're taken out of the equation.

 

[RayClay]

WOW.. Nothing like trying to baffle people with BS...

Lechler had 63 of 96 punts returned. That is a 65% return rate.
Hanson had 20 of 56 returned. That is a 35.7% return rate.

Now, this whole thing of Good Corner Punt %. You clearly don't realize that subtracting the "shanks" from the number of punt attempts actually makes their numbers look better.

Lechler had 30 of 96 punts inside the 20. 31.25%.
Hanson had 18 of 56 inside the 20. 32.14%

Lechler only kicked 2 of his 96 punts out of bounds. 2.08%
Hanson kicked 8 of his 56. 14.28%

Lechler had 13 fair catches on 96 punts. Hanson had 16 on 56 punts.


Shane Lechler: Situational Stats
Chris Hanson: Situational Stats

What you have there are the situational stats for Lechler and Hanson.

75 of Lechler's 96 punts came between his 21 and 50 yard line. He also had 16 of them coming from inside his 20 yard line.

Hanson on the other hand, had 41 of his punts from between his 21 and 50, and only 6 from inside his 20. Hanson had 14 punts inside the opposing 21-49 yard line. While Hanson's nets weren't great for the other 2 categories, the 14 punts inside the 21-49 clearly dropped his net significantly.

Now, I am not saying that Hanson rocks or anything like that. I am saying that Hanson is just better than people want to give him credit for.

BTW, if you take touchbacks out as you did in your equation, the equation is not figuring out % of touchbacks on good punts...

You're a better man than I am, finding all those stats. I just figure, BB is very conservative as far as punts being returned. Seems that Hanson has the ability to hang or kill punts. Bad bounce here or there, the avg. looks bad. I'm more and more convinced that an average tells you nothing in any area of football on it's own, this isn't a baseball batting crown.

Did Hanson shank, mess up, that i remember? Not really.

If we ditch him, BB is just going to get another punter everybody hates because he doesn't want the big leg, big return guys like Sourdough.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Actually, Box, it was reported after he got dumped, but the dumping occurred after the incident..

I'm remembering it differently DB, we'll just have to disagree on the timing.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Umm yes I am because touchbacks are by definition bad punts. Instead of pinning the opponent inside the 20 you give em a free pass to the 20 yard line. Nobody should get credit for bad punts, and everyone is penalized equally for touchbacks. They're taken out of the equation.

Let's assume Leon Washington is the PR, what is the coach's call for a Punt from the Jest side of midfield? If giving the Jest the ball on the 20 is one option, giving Washington a shot at a return is another, and trying to pooch a coffin corner is the third - which call do you make coach? You point out all the touchbacks, yet Hanson kicked more than one or two in 2008 too - and BB brought him back - a reasonable hypothesis would be enough of them were coach's calls or coverage breakdowns to give Hanson a pass on the failures.

 

[efin98]

Actually, Box, it was reported after he got dumped, but the dumping occurred after the incident..

Box had it right, he was released before the incident:

Baugher pleads not guilty day after release by Pats - NFL - ESPN

 

[captain stone]

Let's assume Leon Washington is the PR, what is the coach's call for a Punt from the Jest side of midfield? If giving the Jest the ball on the 20 is one option, giving Washington a shot at a return is another, and trying to pooch a coffin corner is the third - which call do you make coach? You point out all the touchbacks, yet Hanson kicked more than one or two in 2008 too - and BB brought him back - a reasonable hypothesis would be enough of them were coach's calls or coverage breakdowns to give Hanson a pass on the failures.

Or that Bill can no longer be bothered to try to find a better man for the job.

I miss Josh Miller.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Or that Bill can no longer be bothered to try to find a better man for the job.

I miss Josh Miller.

He misses you too.

 

[Kontradiction]

The name "Josh Miller" just makes me think of him as a drunken Enlishman who goes out on the field loaded and booms punts. Kind of like the kicker in "The Replacements". I could just see him punting with a cigarette hanging out of the corner of his mouth.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Box had it right, he was released before the incident:

Baugher pleads not guilty day after release by Pats - NFL - ESPN

Sadly, I remember e-mailing Florio about this very fact after it was published. . . . :bricks:

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Sadly, I remember e-mailing Florio about this very fact after it was published. . . . :bricks:

You told Florio I was right? I'll bet he acted like he'd never heard of me.

 

[Kontradiction]

You told Florio I was right? I'll bet he acted like he'd never heard of me.

He probably thought that a "Box_O_Rocks" was what got dumped on his head after he wrote another one of his half assed articles. :bricks:

 

[efin98]

He probably thought that a "Box_O_Rocks" was what got dumped on his head after he wrote another one of his half assed articles. :bricks:

Thought that dropping on his head was what brought on his half assed articles in the first place...

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

I just cant find any reason why this guy should stick for another season. It also seems like BB brings in punters in the middle of every season for tryouts. Why is that? Motivation for Hanson? I don't know, but im ok with seeing him leave

 

[neuronet]

Let him go. He's just bad.