SF pick final result: #7

[Disco Volante]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 15: SF pick #5)

1 Miami 1-14 .533
2 St. Louis 3-12 .513
3 New York Jets 3-12 .525
4 Atlanta 3-12 .529
5 Kansas City 4-11 .508
6 Oakland 4-11 .513
7 Baltimore 4-11 .517
8 New England (from San Francisco) 5-10 .467
9 Cincinnati 6-9 .458
10 Denver 6-9 .525
11 Carolina 6-9 .533
12 Chicago 6-9 .554
13 Arizona 7-8 .438
14 New Orleans 7-8 .475
15 Buffalo 7-8 .508
16 Houston 7-8 .521
17 Detroit 7-8 .542
18 Philadelphia 7-8 .575
19 Minnesota 8-7 .500
20 Washington 8-7 .563
21 Tennessee 9-6 .500
22 Dallas (from Cleveland) 9-6 .425
23 Tampa Bay 9-6 .467
24 Seattle 10-5 .404
25 Pittsburgh 10-5 .442
26 San Diego 10-5 .500
27 New York Giants 10-5 .513
28 Jacksonville 11-4 .517
29 Green Bay 12-3 .471
30 San Francisco (from Indianapolis) 13-2 .508
31 Dallas 13-2 .492

Well folks, since it is now mathematically impossible to get within the Top 4, time to start rooting for all the 4 win teams to win this weekend. The 1/3 win teams play is irrelevant.

Here’s this weeks 4 win team schedule and want we'll want to see.

1pm
KC @ NYJ

4:15
SD @ OAK
PIT @ BAL

We have a pretty nice reverse strength of schedule lead as of now, so the number of those teams who win, will be the number of slots we’ll move up.

Kansas City may have a shot at the abysmal Jets, though the other two matchups seem like slaughter. We'll shall see.

So for the final week, we could rise as high as the #5 pick or fall to as low to #12.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 15: SF pick #5)

So for the final week, we could rise as high as the #5 pick or fall to as low to #12.

Though, given how worthless the Ratbirds are right now, you might as well change that 5 to a 6 (really 7, since it's unlikely SD loses to OAK, although that's not as unlikely). :enranged:

 

[shakadave]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 15: SF pick #5)

So for the final week, we could rise as high as the #5 pick or fall to as low to #12.

I think #9 would be the farthest we could fall, due to strength of schedule tiebreakers. It looks very likely we stay in the 7-9 range.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 15: SF pick #5)

I think #9 would be the farthest we could fall, due to strength of schedule tiebreakers. It looks very likely we stay in the 7-9 range.

You're right, actually; I don't think there's enough swing possible right now to drop below anyone but the Bungles.

 

[Wretch]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 15: SF pick #5)

I think #9 would be the farthest we could fall, due to strength of schedule tiebreakers. It looks very likely we stay in the 7-9 range.

I'm not too upset about the "fall" out of the top 5. I think a later pick is more easily traded than a top 5 because of the salary cap implications.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

Charlie batch is starting for the Steelers today, so the Ravens, if they have anyone left playing, might have a chance.

We3 should probably keep an eye on the Bungals (who really screwed this pick for us, by losing to the 49ers) today, they are the only 6-9 team who have a worse SOS than the 49ers. They play the Dolphins.

Again the best case would be for the Raiders, KC, and Baltimore all win, the 49ers lose, that would actually lead to a double bonus for the Pats. Not only would it secure the 5th pick in the draft, it would also secure the 5th pick in the third round (because Oakland, would be tied with SF, Balt, & KC at 5-11, and according to the SOS Oakland would have the third lowest, so they would pick 7th in the first rd, then 6th in the second round, and then their pick would rotate to the top of the tied 5-11 teams for the thrid round).

Worst case, we end up with the 9th pick if SF wins and Cinny loses.

Even so, would anyone here not trade Joe Staley for Randy Moss and the 9th pick in next years draft......anyone???

Pioli has pulled off an Auberbachian trade here, somewhere Red is smiling.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

OK here we go....


After the 49ers lost today, as of 4pm, the pick stands at #8, it can only go lower. Kansas City, oakland, and Baltimore, all have better SOSs than the 49ers, so the pick will move up one slot for each win out of these three in the late games.

So still the best would be #5, but still can be 6 or 7.

 

[BelichickFan]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

I'm very excited that we'll move ahead of Baltimore. Belichick has said before that some teams often draft players the Patriots like and other teams don't. With Baltimore playing a 3-4 and some Newsome starting his personnel career under Belichick, the Ravens are always a threat to draft someone we might like - especially if we're finally looking at a LB like Long, Gholston or Lauranitis.

 

[BradyToMoss]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

I'm very excited that we'll move ahead of Baltimore. Belichick has said before that some teams often draft players the Patriots like and other teams don't. With Baltimore playing a 3-4 and some Newsome starting his personnel career under Belichick, the Ravens are always a threat to draft someone we might like - especially if we're finally looking at a LB like Long, Gholston or Lauranitis.

I agree, if we can get up to #7, I'll take it. Matt Ryan is going to Atlanta, so I guarantee that Billick would be looking at at one of those 3 guys or even Jenkins from OSU. Let's jump up over them. Although Pitt just got the onsides kick, Billick is doing everything in his power to hand this game to Pitt.

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

With Baltimore winning, at this point, it is officially the 7th pick. Come on Herm don't screw this one up in OT.

 

[onegr8om]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

Pick # 7 it IS! So do we take Laurinitis? Gholston? Connor? Trade back? Thanks 49ers!

 

[LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

Draft order:
1.) Dolphins
2.) Rams
3.) Falcons
4.) Chiefs
5.) Raiders
6.) Jets
7.) Patriots

 

[patsfaninpa]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

I think 3-6 is
3. KC
4. Oak
5. NJY
6. Atl.
7. NE

Look at SOS going into wk 17. Link from GBN.

http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.htm

 

[SunnyDenmark]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

Will Pioli stomach approximately $ 22 million PLUS for a 5 year contract ?? (last years # 7 pick contract ) OR trade down to get more cap 'friendly' numbers?...
Below are last years numbers :

http://www.profootballweekly.com/PFW/Features/NFL+Features/2007/signingchart07.htm

Contract terms for 2007 first-round picks


Aug. 15, 2007


Links to other years: 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000

To more accurately reflect the actual value of first-round rookie contracts, Pro Football Weekly has revamped the way in which it presents that information, beginning with the 2006 rookie class. As shown in the following table for 2007 first-round picks, the four new categories (left to right) indicate: (1) contract length in years — because deals sometimes contain "voidable" years that are almost certain to be voided, we report the "real" number of years; (2) actual guaranteed money after options; (3) total five-year value based upon achieving minimum playing-time thresholds; and (4) maximum contract value — if all incentives are met. The five-year value is considered a more realistic total-earning figure, given that many incentives will not be met and a rookie contract will likely be ripped up and redone prior to the final year of the deal.

Pk. Pos., Player, Team Date signed Real yrs. Guaranteed after options Five-year real value Max. value w/incentives
1 QB JaMarcus Russell, Oak.
2 WR Calvin Johnson, Det. Aug. 3 6 $27.2 mil. $36.9 mil. $64.0 mil.
3 OT Joe Thomas, Cle. July 26 5 $23.0 mil. $33.5 mil. $42.5 mil.
4 DE Gaines Adams, T.B. July 26 5 $19.3 mil. $26.0 mil. $45.0 mil.
5 OT Levi Brown, Ari. Aug. 2 6 $22.9 mil. $22.9 mil. $62.0 mil.
6 FS LaRon Landry, Was. July 30 5 $17.5 mil. $22.0 mil. $41.5 mil.
7 RB Adrian Peterson, Min. July 29 5 $17.0 mil. $22.5 mil. $40.5 mil.
8 DE Jamaal Anderson, Atl. July 25 5 $15.4 mil. $19.2 mil. $30.9 mil.
9 WR Ted Ginn Jr., Mia. July 27 5 $14.1 mil. $17.5 mil. $21.8 mil
10 DT Amobi Okoye, Hou. July 27 5 $12.8 mil. $15.4 mil. $17.6 mil.
11 LB Patrick Willis, S.F. July 29 5 $12.0 mil. $14.4 mil. $16.7 mil.
12 RB Marshawn Lynch, Buf. July 26 5 $10.3 mil. $13.3 mil. $18.9 mil.
13 DT-DE Adam Carriker, St.L. July 27 5 $9.3 mil. $12.8 mil. $14.3 mil.
14 CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ Aug. 15
15 OLB Lawrence Timmons, Pit. July 22 5 $8.3 mil. $11.9 mil. $15.0 mil.
16 DT Justin Harrell, G.B. July 27 5 $8.1 mil. $11.8 mil. $14.5 mil.
17 DE Jarvis Moss, Den. July 28 5 $8.1 mil. $11.5 mil. $15.0 mil.
18 CB Leon Hall, Cin. July 28 5 $8.2 mil. $11.0 mil. $13.6 mil.
19 S Michael Griffin, Ten. July 27 5 $8.2 mil. $10.5 mil. $13.3 mil.
20 CB Aaron Ross, NYG July 27 5 $8.0 mil. $10.0 mil. $13.5 mil.
........

My guess is they will try to trade down into the 'teens...
Great job 49'ers - thanks!

 

[VJCPatriot]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

I posted this on the draft forum but let me put it down here as well.
The top 10 for the 2008 draft looks like this now:

1. Miami 1-15, 138 opponent wins
2. St. Louis 3-13, 131
3 (tie). Kansas City 4-12, 132, 3-9 AFC
3 (tie). Oakland 4-12, 132, 4-8 AFC
3 (tie). Atlanta 4-12, 132
6. New York Jets 4-12, 134
7. San Francisco (held by New England) 5-11, 119
8. Baltimore 5-11, 132
9. Cincinnati 7-9, 118
10. New Orleans 7-9, 123

http://www.solecismic.com/frontierblog/?p=192

 

[Cannon Arm]

Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 16: SF pick #8)

And it means if D-Mac becomes some great RB, he won't be facing us twice a season because he's not making it passed the Raiders and Chiefs and the Dolphins aren't taking him.

 

[National Sports Advisors]

#7, I like it! We can definitely afford to pay that pick plus keep Moss and hopefully Samuel. A nice cornerback or linebacker would be sweet at #7!

 

[Crazyeechrispats1]

Kenny Philips then a trade back into the first or upper echelon of the second to pick up the linebacker that BB has his eyes on.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I know it's an imperfect metric, but the #7 pick is worth 1,500 points on most draft boards. Not enough to trade for two #1's, but more than enough to trade for a higher #1 this year and for a #2 and another higher round pick this year or next.

 

[BelichickFan]

I know it's an imperfect metric, but the #7 pick is worth 1,500 points on most draft boards. Not enough to trade for two #1's, but more than enough to trade for a higher #1 this year and for a #2 and another higher round pick this year or next.

The generic chart I looked at has #7 being worth (#23 + #24) or (#18 and #31)

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/valuechart.html