Welcome to PatsFans.com

SF pick final result: #7

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by ctpatsfan77, Nov 20, 2007.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,237
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -1

    I did this last year, but I figured I'd update it for this year. [I will try to update this once a week; I hope one of the mods will sticky this.]

    The rules are relatively straightforward.

    (1a) The SB winner is assigned pick #32 in every round (excluding compensatory picks).
    (1b) The SB loser is assigned pick #31 in every round.

    (2) All remaining teams are then sorted by W/L percentage, regardless of whether they make the playoffs or not.
    Example: In the 2007 draft, the 8-8 Giants, who made the playoffs, picked before the 9-7 Broncos, who did not.

    (3) Among teams from step (2) with identical records, teams are ranked as follows:
    (3a) Teams that don't make the playoffs are placed ahead of teams that do make the playoffs.
    (3b) Teams that don't make the playoffs are then ranked in increasing order of strength of schedule. [The logic here is that the worse a team's opponents did, the better a team should do.]
    (3c) Teams that do make the playoffs are ranked by the order in which they exit the playoffs. If two teams exit in the same stage, they are then ranked by SOS.
    Example: A 12-4 team that loses its first playoff game will pick before a 12-4 team that reaches a conference championship, even if the latter team has a weaker SOS.
    (3d) If SOS is tied, divisional and/or conference records are used, if possible.
    (3e) If two teams remain tied, a coin toss is used.
    Example: In the 2007 draft, CLE and TB finished with identical records and identical SOS. Since they were in different conferences, the tiebreakers in 3d could not be used, so a coin toss was held.

    At this point, all teams should be ranked from 1 to 32.

    (4) For rounds two through seven, with the exception of the SB teams, all rankings cycle within their respective groupings.
    Example: In 2007, NYJ, PHI, and NO all finished at 10-6, and all made the playoffs; using rule (3c), the final order for round one was NYJ-PHI-NO. In round two, the pick order was PHI-NO-NYJ; in round three, NO-NYJ-PHI, and so on through the remaining rounds.

    * * * * *

    As of the end of Week 11, only rules 2 and 3b have any bearing on the SF pick:

    (2) SF currently must pick after 0-10 MIA, and ahead of all teams at 3-7 or better, as part of a four-team group consisting of NYJ, OAK, SF, and STL.
    (3b) Since SF has the weakest SOS of any 2-8 team, it has the first pick among them; since there is only one team with a record worse than 2-8, that gives the Patriots the #2 pick in the draft.

    As for week 12--the pick cannot move to #1; the only way the pick can move down is if SF wins against ARI. If that happens, the worst the pick can drop should be to #5.
    Last edited: Nov 20, 2007
  2. PatsFan#37

    PatsFan#37 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    449
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    We are half way through the season, why are we talking draft now? Enjoy the run we have plenty of time for the draft.
  3. AStack75

    AStack75 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    1,089
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    You'll have to update this thread every week.
  4. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    8,329
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +17 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    Excellent post. Keep it handy because this question will be asked a hundred times between now and the draft.
  5. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    8,329
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +17 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    ??? You can't talk draft AND enjoy the games? Why not? :confused:

    Some of us think about the draft AND watch the Pats AND talk about Mike Lowell AND watch the Celtics AND even watch games like Titans-Broncos that don't have any Boston teams in them. :D
  6. bradmahn

    bradmahn Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2006
    Messages:
    2,008
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    Really? My head hurts just thinking about thinking about all those things at once.
  7. alamo

    alamo praedica numerum! PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    Messages:
    2,355
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +11 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    Just a minor nit...

    The phrase "(excluding compensatory picks)" in "(1a) The SB winner is assigned pick #32 in every round (excluding compensatory picks)" makes little sense, because all compensatory picks are lower than #32.
  8. Dragda

    Dragda Yes, it's really me... PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2006
    Messages:
    1,339
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    #93 Jersey

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    Some of us think two drafts in the future.
  9. onegr8om

    onegr8om Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2005
    Messages:
    204
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    Excellent Post! I'm a draft NUT and love thinking that we may pick TOP 3 in the draft. Keep us updated with posts like these.
  10. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,237
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -1

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    Oh well. I'll get that right in 2008, I guess. :D

    Seriously, though, in this case, change excluding to before, and all is well. :)
  11. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2004
    Messages:
    2,365
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 11: SF pick #2)

    Thanks for the post CTPF77. I would never be able to keep that straight in a million years.
  12. shakadave

    shakadave Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2005
    Messages:
    2,232
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 11: SF pick #2)

    Isn't it funny that head-to-head record never comes into play?
  13. Pat the Pats Fan

    Pat the Pats Fan Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 14, 2005
    Messages:
    2,857
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 11: SF pick #2)

    Thanks for the post and explanation of the rules......
    Mods, thanks for the sticky to make it easy to find for future reference.......

    something to give thanks for.......
  14. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,237
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -1

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 11: SF pick #2)

    Well, all meaningful games in Week 12 have now been played.

    MIA must still be first, regardless of whether they win.

    Of the four teams at 2-9, NYJ lost, OAK won, STL lost (damn you, Gus Frerotte :mad:), and SF won (can we retroactively revoke Neil Rackers' Pro Bowl status? :enranged:).

    Thus, since SF "wins out" on strength of schedule, the current draft order is:

    1. 'lphins
    2. Rams
    3. JEST
    4. PATRIOTS
    5. Raiders
    Last edited: Nov 26, 2007
  15. makewayhomer

    makewayhomer Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 11: SF pick #2)

    what about the falcons? same record as the niners and raiders
  16. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,237
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -1

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 11: SF pick #2)

    Forgot about them, but they're after the SF/Pats pick.
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2007
  17. antimennai

    antimennai Guest

    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    Where the heck have you been? There is nothing wrong with pointing out some great info like this poster has gone through the time to do. I bet you would rather post in all the idiot Maroney diaper threads.

    The fact that our draft position can changed on a weakly basis and a poster taking time to educate the board on how this is true, is a good thread.

    Since when did the season become 22 games as you say we are half way?

    Get off your high horse and let the guy post solid info as opposed to the other crap on the board right now, unless you are the person posting all the crap.
  18. JDP111

    JDP111 Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2007
    Messages:
    557
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (2008 SF edition)

    There is a lot of crap on the board these days. Kinda sucks actually. The site needs to get rid of all the "sponsor a cheerleader"-type members.
  19. BeauSox

    BeauSox Rookie

    Joined:
    May 9, 2007
    Messages:
    23
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 12: SF pick #4)

    I believe this should be updated reflecting that San Fran Pick Back at #2.

    WHOOOOO!
  20. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,237
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -1

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 12: SF pick #4)

    For Week 13, now that the Niners have lost, (A) all is right with the world again :), and (B) all meaningful games with respect to their draft pick have been played.

    Since the Rams and JEST heroically managed to win, they now lose out on SOS to the Niners . . . and the Patriots' pick is once again #2.
  21. carolinatony

    carolinatony Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 15, 2006
    Messages:
    2,845
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 12: SF pick #4)

    #2 is great. I hope we can stay in the Top3.
  22. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    Anybody care to actually keep a running SOS ranking??!!

    I'm curious as to how secure SF's "lead" is by that tiebreak.
  23. Disco Volante

    Disco Volante Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2007
    Messages:
    6,208
    Likes Received:
    13
    Ratings:
    +13 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    Posted this in another thread, but since this one is stickied...

    Here’s the remaining schedules for each of the 3 win teams…

    49ers
    MIN @ SF
    CIN @ SF
    TB @ SF
    SF @ CLE

    Falcons
    NO @ ATL
    ATL @ TB
    ATL @ ARI
    SEA @ ATL

    Jets
    CLE @ NYJ
    NYJ @ NE
    NYJ @ TEN
    KC @ NYJ

    Rams
    STL @ CIN
    GB @ STL
    PIT @ STL
    STL @ ARI
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2007
  24. LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks

    LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 12, 2007
    Messages:
    362
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=24848&page=8

    This thread on TheGangGreen.com (one of the few useful things on that site :D ) keeps track of the draft order and strength of schedules. Right now, SF has a pretty big SOS "lead" over every team but Atlanta.

    Cincy is right there, too, but they have 1 more win than the 9ers. That game between SF and Cincy in 2 weeks should be pretty big, in terms of draft order implications.
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2007
  25. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    Cleveland is going to have a huge impact on pick order.

    This also illustrates that they have a very easy schedule.

    St. Louis has a fairly tough schedule.

    We need SF to lose out.
  26. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    Do you know whether that's all 16 opponents or (stupidly) just the first 12? At first glance it looks like just the first 12, but I didn't focus on figuring out for sure. :(
  27. Mix

    Mix Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2006
    Messages:
    1,140
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    #24 Jersey

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    That is all 16.

    The 49ers SOS keeps going up each week. Just from the early games today it is up to .481, it was at .419 after week 7.

    EDIT: It's at .487 after the late afternoon games.
    Last edited: Dec 2, 2007
  28. SaCaCh

    SaCaCh Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    1,154
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    SF sched is going to get tough against some high % teams their SOS is going to go up fast!
  29. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    31,088
    Likes Received:
    29
    Ratings:
    +37 / 2 / -3

    #24 Jersey

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    3 of 4 of the Jets' opponents are over .500 including a certain undefeated team that they get to play again.

    Rams still get GB and Pitt and Arizona is right around .500.

    SF has .500 Minnesota, around .500 Arizona, little over .500 Cleveland and pretty good TB.

    I'd be surprised if SF doesn't have the worst SoS of the 3 when it's all over although it's a living stat for sure.
  30. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,237
    Likes Received:
    33
    Ratings:
    +34 / 0 / -1

    Re: Rules for draft pick order (After Week 13: SF pick #2)

    Since people asked for it, I figured I'd work it out. As of 8:00 PM EST on 12/2, here is the draft order, with SOS, for teams at 5-7 or below. Numbers in brackets represent SOS rank (1 = hardest); calculation includes all opponents, including games not yet played.

    1 MIA .540 [5]

    2 SF .487 [22]
    3 NYJ .519
    4 ATL .521
    5 STL .524

    6 OAK .500
    7 KC .503

    8 CIN .476 [25]
    9 BAL .508

    10 NO .479 [23]
    11 HOU .510
    12 DEN .529
    13 CAR .536
    14 CHI .552
    15 PHI .565
    16 WAS .571 [1]

    By the way--New England's SOS is .470 [27].
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page