Anyone that is willing to part with Mallett for less than a 2nd is probably just glad to liquidate the roster trash... get him off the roster, take whatever we can get and look elsewhere for a backup QB. The idea of a trade like this has to start with the premise that both the Pats and Browns have a high opinion of Mallett.
I think the #6 pick is actually pretty reasonable as a starting point for discussion. The cost of replacement, if we were to lose Mallett, is probably the 3rd or 4th it would take to pry Hoyer away from the Cards, unless you would rather to go to TC with Brady, Kafka and some guy walking the street. There needs to be enough value in the deal for the Pats to have an interest in the deal. Trading Mallett for a 2nd would net BB less than 100 points of value, after using resources to get a new backup onto the roster--far less than the risk and bother of doing the deal. Starting value for a Mallett trade has to be a 1st rounder.
The surprising thing isn't that the Pats would demand 1st round compensation as a starting point for discussion... it's that anyone might entertain the idea. But, after reading all 20 pages of this thread, I can begin to imagine why a team like the Browns might give a top-10 pick for Mallett. We just have to walk around in Lombardi's head:
- Lombardi thought Mallett was mid-first round talent 2 years ago, even with some questions floating about his character. Two years later, the guy has been around the speed of the game, studied a professional offense under a HOF starter, changed his body to be more lean, and learned what it takes to be a pro. Best of all, the character issues have not emerged.
- Given that, a mid-first round value is not an unreasonable floor for what Lombardi thinks is fair value for Mallett. If Ryan washed out in New England, Lombardi could have picked him up off the garbage heap for a late pick, or maybe for nothing. But BB has handed Mallett the backup job, even with Hoyer available. Granted, there is no positive proof that Mallett will succeed. But the lack of negatives (especially from a coach/GM like BB with a short fuse for draft picks that were mistakes) is signal that maybe Lombardi's original assessment in 2011 may have been accurate. And regardless of what we might believe, for sure Lombardi is likely to think so.
- Mallett was the 6th QB taken in 2011 after Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick, in what is turning out to look like a pretty strong QB class. Ponder, Dalton and Kaepernick have done pretty well with their opportunities to play; and very much to the point, the teams that drafted them have all improved. And, again, if Lombardi had a higher grade on Mallett coming out than those guys, he's going to believe that if Mallett had had the same opportunity to play, he would have been at least on par with those guys.
- The Browns roster is pretty decent, except at QB. Strong running game, good OL, good young receivers, credible D. They've done the BPA thing for years, and it's resulted in a roster that is young and talented. A starting QB could put this team over the top. Spending an early 1st round pick at a position other than QB, or taking another "value" selection at QB, or failing to address QB at all in the off-season, is a risky proposition for a GM that needs to show improvement over from the previous regime.
- Veteran player options are Alex Smith, but it might take an early draft pick or two to convince the Niners. Matt Flynn, who couldn't beat Russell in Seattle, and would cost a pick to two, too. Michael Vick? Kevin Kolb? Really, where are you going to go? McCown? Brady Quinn? Jason Campbell? Do any of these sound like free agency solutions?
- In the draft, you have a pretty sad and risky looking QB class. Geno Smith, who is dropping on boards. Barkley, Nassin, Wilson. Supposing you have a high grade on Smith, it would take the #6 pick, and maybe even a trade up given how many other QB-desperate teams are out there, to be sure of him. If you have a higher grade on Mallett than Smith, and you're willing to spend the #6 on Smith, surely you'd be willing to spend it on Mallett instead.
All the talk about swapping first round picks with Cleveland as compensation... I don't see it. Those opinions are based on our assessment of Mallett's play in two pre-season games. Lombardi is working off different information. He's also looking at it from a Cleveland point of view, not the view of a Pats fan who has no reason to love Mallett.
If this deal happens, it would be for the #6 straight up or more, just as stated in the original rumor. I could even imagine as much as #6 + conditional early pick in 2014. BB would demand it, as fair value for making the quality pick in 2011 and for the big gap it leaves on his 2013 roster. And Lombardi may actually see the value in it for Cleveland too, because frankly he doesn't have a lot of options.
