I've been giving the roster a lot of thought, probably too much. The one thing I try to keep in mind is that the 45th roster spot is often the area of change, not the 53rd. What I mean by that is that the Patriots seem to make quite a few changes at the bottom of the active roster. Guys like Steven Spach, CJ Jones, etc seem to be signed to play on gamedays in a specific role and released when another role player is needed.
QB's (3): Brady, O'Connell, Walter
I could see the Patriots possibly (not likely) releasing Walter if Hoyer clears waivers and makes the practice squad.
RB's (4): Maroney, Faulk, Taylor, Morris
I don't see more than 4 backs making the roster, so Green-Ellis is released unless their is an injury to one of the top 4. The Pats will sign a back to the practice squad.
TE's (3): Baker, Watson, Thomas
It wouldn't shock me if Smith stays too, especially if he's willing to take a pay cut. I can't see 1.5 million for a 4th TE
OL (9): Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kazcur, Vollmer, Ohrnberger, Hochstein, O'Callaghan
I can't see the Patriots going with only one backup OT, so O'Callaghan makes the roster. If/when Levoir is healthy he could take O'Callaghan's spot.
WR(6): Moss, Welker, Galloway, Lewis, Edelman, Aiken
Nunn makes the practice squad
Total on Offense: 25
DL (7) Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Wright, Green, Brace, Pryor
I think this group is set barring a trade to shore up another area
DE/OLB(2) Burgess, Banta-Cain
Lets hope Burgess rounds in to shape
OLB (3) Thomas, Woods, Crable
ILB(4) Mayo, Guyton, Bruschi, Alexander
This is the toughest position on the team to figure out for me. I could see the Patriots bringing in a younger veteran than Bruschi to be the 3rd ILB and a more dynamic special teams player than Alexander for the 4th spot.
CB (5) Bodden, Springs, Wilhite, Butler, Wheatley
Wheatley, though I loved the pick last year, has been awful this pre-season, but I still see him making the roster.
S (4) Merriweather, Sanders, Chung, Slater
McGowan is my tough cut as Springs can play safety, so we can afford to take the best ST as a 4th safety. I think someone from another team could beat out Slater for this mainly special teams slot.
ST(3) Gostkowski, Hanson, Ingram
Against my better judgment, I am projecting the rookie to get the long snapping job over the veteran. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hodel kept and somebody trading a 6th or 7th next year for Ingram.
Total Defense/ST: 28
Toughest Cuts: McGowan, Smith
Last guys on the roster: 53. Alexander (though would be active) 52. Slater (active) 51. Walter(3rd QB) 50. Crable 49. O'Callaghan 48. Lewis
If the Patriots make any moves for players, I see them looking for an ILB and more dynamic special teams players. Neither Alexander or Slater adds much to their postion, so the special teams players the Pats could pick up wouldn't need to fit in at S or ILB.