Rewatched the Jags Game

[PatsFaninAZ]

Man, HDTV really expands what you get to see on televised football games.

Anyway, I rewound the 4th and 4 play from the first quarter a few times, because I thought that would be telling about the Patriots. What did they regard as their "go to" play -- what did they do when they absolutely had to have 4 yards. Brady had his choice of at least 3 receivers. Welker in particular was wide open just past the sticks.

So, that got me to focus on Welker for the rest of the game. Every time he ran that pattern -- the 3-8 yard hitch or curl (he runs it out of different formations, but often a slot right trips left or vice versa) -- he was standing all by himself. Assuming no penalty or dropped ball, Brady could have gone to Welker pretty much every single down of the entire game and been guaranteed 5 yards plus whatever Welker could get after the catch.

Rewatching the game, Jacksonville's strategy was pretty apparent. They simply decided they were unlikely ever to prevent the Patriots from getting 10 yards on three (or, if necessary, four) consecutive plays. So they simply decided to let them have it, and take away the longer plays.

I think this is the correct strategy, because it forced the Patriots to play mistake free football. It puts them in position that an offensive penalty or a dropped ball can end a drive. And that's exactly how it played out. Of the six drives, one was essentially ended by an illegal block and one was ended by a drop. That's it. But if the Patriots had taken any more offensive penalties -- even a false start here or there -- or had a turnover, the Jags could have easily won that game.

The key for the Jags was they never varied. They did not gamble with it. They did not get caught in the switches. They had a philosophy for how to beat a better a team, and they stuck with it right to the very end. All too often decisions about whether a coach's coaching or players' performance is successful depends on result. If good coaching and good playing means doing the things that maximize your chance of winning, you have to give the Jags an awful lot of credit for that performance.

 

[theflinger]

Good analysis. I haven't grabbed a recording to analyze yet, but I am curious how much coverage you saw on Moss. I wish we had gametape to tell for sure, but usually you can piece it together. Did they permanently keep the safeties deep for him?

I did notice what you were talking about with Welker wide open a few times...Interesting. I thought Brady did a great job spreading it and using his checkdowns, but it's nice to know that he had even more options at the ready.

 

[Ring 6]

Man, HDTV really expands what you get to see on televised football games.

Anyway, I rewound the 4th and 4 play from the first quarter a few times, because I thought that would be telling about the Patriots. What did they regard as their "go to" play -- what did they do when they absolutely had to have 4 yards. Brady had his choice of at least 3 receivers. Welker in particular was wide open just past the sticks.

So, that got me to focus on Welker for the rest of the game. Every time he ran that pattern -- the 3-8 yard hitch or curl (he runs it out of different formations, but often a slot right trips left or vice versa) -- he was standing all by himself. Assuming no penalty or dropped ball, Brady could have gone to Welker pretty much every single down of the entire game and been guaranteed 5 yards plus whatever Welker could get after the catch.

Rewatching the game, Jacksonville's strategy was pretty apparent. They simply decided they were unlikely ever to prevent the Patriots from getting 10 yards on three (or, if necessary, four) consecutive plays. So they simply decided to let them have it, and take away the longer plays.

I think this is the correct strategy, because it forced the Patriots to play mistake free football. It puts them in position that an offensive penalty or a dropped ball can end a drive. And that's exactly how it played out. Of the six drives, one was essentially ended by an illegal block and one was ended by a drop. That's it. But if the Patriots had taken any more offensive penalties -- even a false start here or there -- or had a turnover, the Jags could have easily won that game.

The key for the Jags was they never varied. They did not gamble with it. They did not get caught in the switches. They had a philosophy for how to beat a better a team, and they stuck with it right to the very end. All too often decisions about whether a coach's coaching or players' performance is successful depends on result. If good coaching and good playing means doing the things that maximize your chance of winning, you have to give the Jags an awful lot of credit for that performance.

I dont know that I wouldnt play that strategy too vs the Pats. The idea is that you stop drives by them making a mistake. The penalty that led to only a FG, the drop by welker that led to only a FG, were exactly what they were playing for. I think, though, that I would be more aggressive once they cross the 50. With the shorter field, you are down to not a whole lot of 5-8 yard plays before its red zone time. I think I'd mix in blitzes between the 50 and red zone to try to do the same thing, win a down with a hurried throw, holding penalty, a receiver not breaking off the hot route (yeah good chance that happens with the Pats, right) etc.
I think the key to containing the Pats offense is understanding that I have 3 downs to play, and I want to make them use all 3. Then I hope for a miscue by them to give me a chance to stop them.
The biggest difference I see in our offense, outside of the obvious, is on 3rd down, I cant remember the last time we didnt have a play called that got someone close to open, or that we didnt hit that pass. In the past, the typical short circuit of our offense, was a 3rd down pass that was somewhat open, with decent coverage and it would either be broken up or not pulled in by the receiver. That rarely happens any more.

Ironically, to defend the best offense in history, you have to hope that the most fundamentally sound offense in history makes a fundamental mistake.

 

[TripleOption]

The key for the Jags was they never varied. They did not gamble with it. They did not get caught in the switches. They had a philosophy for how to beat a better a team, and they stuck with it right to the very end.

No, they did blitz...once. That was the long play to Stallworth. They learned their lesson.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

Good analysis. I haven't grabbed a recording to analyze yet, but I am curious how much coverage you saw on Moss. I wish we had gametape to tell for sure, but usually you can piece it together. Did they permanently keep the safeties deep for him?

It's really hard to tell, even with HDTV. Basically, the way the cameras frame the shot, they don't really put the line of scrimmage in the center of the shot -- it's more like 75 percent of the screen shows the offense and 25 percent shows the defense, and then the camera actually moves quickly in the direction of the offense on pass plays (and zooms out a little) to show the QB dropping back.

The few times you can see it, the safeties look as though they are just turning their back and sprinting, not even looking for play fakes. Often you could only see like 4 linemen and 1 LB in the picture on pass plays, but receivers are open within 10 yards, so that gives you a good indication that 5 or 6 defenders were downfield. It looked to me as though 1 or 2 LBs got to be a free agent on each play, Brady just looked to see where they were, then threw somewhere else. On the plays to the running backs out of the backfield, the Jags never had a chance.

 

[Ring 6]

Good analysis. I haven't grabbed a recording to analyze yet, but I am curious how much coverage you saw on Moss. I wish we had gametape to tell for sure, but usually you can piece it together. Did they permanently keep the safeties deep for him?

I did notice what you were talking about with Welker wide open a few times...Interesting. I thought Brady did a great job spreading it and using his checkdowns, but it's nice to know that he had even more options at the ready.

I havent analyzed it yet either, but here is my impression.
WE DICTATE THIS.
Often we have Moss on one side, and 3 WRs on the other. Sometimes there is another receiver on Moss' side, but he crosses the formation. What you are doing is dictating a decision. That safety must either leave Moss one on one with a corner, a matchup we would be happy with on any play. Or he must play over the top, therefore we have 2 defenders playing the side of the field with one receiver on it (Its also likely that a LB on that side isn't going to get anywhere near impacting the other side) so the 3 guys on the opposite side of the field have what really amounts to one on one coverage.

Another play that I noticed on Saturday that this reminded me of.
The formation was shot gun with Faulk flanking Brady to his left. There were no receivers on the left side of the formation, everyone lined up to the right.
Before the snap, I said, look, no one is on the left, watch Faulk, he's getting this pass. And that is exactly what happened. Perfect example here of how our offense is designed to make defenses commit to something, and we use that against them.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

No, they did blitz...once. That was the long play to Stallworth. They learned their lesson.

They actually did more run blitzing during the game, but no safety or CB blitzes. I'm not even sure that the deep pass to Stallworth was a safety or CB blitz, even though Nantz and Simms said it was. I think it was just a good LB run blitz that blew up the play.

 

[theflinger]

Thanks, PFIA and AJ. AJ, I agree, and this is why Moss is so important. He is also the one out on obvious run plays when they only put out one reciever, because the defense just can't cheat with him. If they do, Brady'll audible and they will get burned.

 

[Grogan's neck roll]

They actually did more run blitzing during the game, but no safety or CB blitzes. I'm not even sure that the deep pass to Stallworth was a safety or CB blitz, even though Nantz and Simms said it was. I think it was just a good LB run blitz that blew up the play.

That play was gorgeous, one of my favorites ever. I thought Brady was throwing it away to save a sack, how he spotted Stallworth that quickly not to mention then delivering the ball to him, that was poetry.

 

[TripleOption]

They actually did more run blitzing during the game, but no safety or CB blitzes. I'm not even sure that the deep pass to Stallworth was a safety or CB blitz, even though Nantz and Simms said it was. I think it was just a good LB run blitz that blew up the play.

It was definitely a pass stunt...and what play did it blow up?

 

[Metaphors]

It was definitely a pass stunt...and what play did it blow up?

It was a screen pass to Brady's left. Spicer (I think?) jumped the screen and Brady had to reload and look to his right. The fact that he could reset the play in his head and deliver such a precise pass that far downfield brings a tear to the eye...

 

[TripleOption]

It was a screen pass to Brady's left. Spicer (I think?) jumped the screen and Brady had to reload and look to his right. The fact that he could reset the play in his head and deliver such a precise pass that far downfield brings a tear to the eye...

I'll have to rewatch it, but I have never heard of a Screen Play that has a downfield option. Usually if the Screen is ruined, you just dump it at the back's feet.

 

[Grogan's neck roll]

It was a screen pass to Brady's left. Spicer (I think?) jumped the screen and Brady had to reload and look to his right. The fact that he could reset the play in his head and deliver such a precise pass that far downfield brings a tear to the eye...

This is exactly correct, and I thought his only option would be to throw it away. I watched this play about 10 times, just astounding.

 

[Oswlek]

I'll have to rewatch it, but I have never heard of a Screen Play that has a downfield option. Usually if the Screen is ruined, you just dump it at the back's feet.

I recall a number of years ago seeing a clip about how Green Bay ran screens that gave Favre the choice of either the standard runner or a downfield option.

 

[TripleOption]

I recall a number of years ago seeing a clip about how Green Bay ran screens that gave Favre the choice of either the standard runner or a downfield option.

Weird, you would think that gives a QB too much leeway. I have seen "Double screens" that give a QB two different screens to choose from, but not a Screen with a deep component.

 

[Metaphors]

Weird, you would think that gives a QB too much leeway. I have seen "Double screens" that give a QB two different screens to choose from, but not a Screen with a deep component.

I'm not sure it was planned. The entire JAX team looked to be on Brady's left, so he moved to his right and likely had a great view of Stallworth one-on-one downfield. You would have to see Stallworth's reaction earlier in the play to know if that was a planned route or a busted play with quick thinking by Stallworth.

Either way, the OL gave Brady time to reset and get his feet under him for a BEEEE-UUU-TEE-FUL dart about 40 yards down the sideline. The whole play was just the perfect example of what makes the Pats such a difficult team to defend.

 

[eom]

I might not be remembering this right, but I think on that play brady was in trouble and the booth said stallworth saw this and took off on the play to give him an option.
of course, that'd be their read, I guess.

 

[Grogan's neck roll]

Either way, the OL gave Brady time to reset and get his feet under him for a BEEEE-UUU-TEE-FUL dart about 40 yards down the sideline. The whole play was just the perfect example of what makes the Pats such a difficult team to defend.

And he made that throw without really getting set.

 

[TripleOption]

It was a screen pass to Brady's left. Spicer (I think?) jumped the screen and Brady had to reload and look to his right. The fact that he could reset the play in his head and deliver such a precise pass that far downfield brings a tear to the eye...

I don't think it was a Screen; it looks like they were trying to dump it to Maroney on the Flare.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I don't think it was a Screen; it looks like they were trying to dump it to Maroney on the Flare.

I'm not sure that screen or flare has much of a difference for the points being discussed here.

The crazy part about the play is that it doesn't even look like Brady was looking at Stallworth or even saw him, but just knew where he'd be.