I agree. We have a lot riding on LaFell's health right now. Not just because he's turned into such a good player for us, but because the depth behind him is so thin.
I thought, at worst, Dobson would've been a high-upside backup behind LaFell this year - but just like many receiving prospects before him, health has really derailed his chance at success.
I'm as disappointed as anyone that Dobson hasn't been able to contribute significantly this year. But realistically, how many teams aren't screwed if their top receivers get hurt, or don't have depth issues?
As far as I can tell, Indy has the best WR depth of any top team. Looking at the top offenses in the NFL right now:
- Indy: As far as I can tell this is the only team with 4 solid WR options: TY Hilton, Reggie Wayne, rookie Donte Moncrieff and Hakeem Nicks. Moncrief and Nicks, the #3 and #4 receivers, combine for 48 receptions for 633 yards and 6 TDs. TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (now on IR) and Trent Richardson make up almost all of the remaining receiving yardage.
- Denver: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have combined for 170 receptions, 2407 yards and 17 TDs. TE Julius Thomas is the other main target. Wes Welker is the #3 WR and has 35 receptions for 294 yards and 2 TDs. The RBs (CJ Anderson, Ronnie Hillman and Monte Ball) and backup TE Jacob Tamme make up the rest of the production. The #4 and #5 WRs (Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer) total 6 receptions for 56 yards and 0 TDs.
- San Diego: They have 3 legitimate WR threats in Keenan Allen, Malcolm Floyd and Eddie Royal, who total 154 receptions . TE Antonio Gates is their other obvious weapon. #4 WR Seyi Ajirotutu (on Captain Stone's lists of possible FAs to pursue for 2015) has all of 2 receptions for 19 yards and 0 TDs.
- Green Bay: Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have combined for 135 receptions, 2041 yards and 20 TDs through 12 games. If either one gets hurt GB is screwed. Davante Adams has had a solid rookie season (about the same production as Aaron Dobson last year) with 34 receptions for and 3 TDs, but I'm not sure he's ready to be a #1 or #2 option. RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks and TEs Andrew Quarrless and Richard Rodgers are the next 4 top receivers, and they have a combined 78 receptions for and 8 TDs. The other receivers have a grand total of 12 receptions for 74 yards and 1 TD.
- Philadelphia: They have 3 solid receiving options in Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper, but little else at the WR position (Jeff Maehl, Josh Huff and Brad Smith have combined for a total of 12 receptions for 105 yards and 0 TDs. Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles, Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy are the other receiving options.
- Cincinnati: AJ Green has been injured, but he and Mohammed Sanu are the top 2 receiving options, followed by TE Jermaine Greshman and RBs Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill. #3 WR Brandon Tate as 14 receptions for 159 yards and 1 TD. #4 WR Greg Little has 5 receptions for 63 yards and 0 TDs.
I don't see a lot of teams out there sitting pretty with 4 deep viable WR receiving options. Indy is the only team I've found so far (I haven't gone through them all) where the #4 WR has more than 200 yards and 1 TD. Most teams get a fair amount of receiving mileage out of TEs and RBs. We're definitely a bit thin, but most teams would be screwed if 1 or more of their top 2 WRs got hurt. If either Dobson or Amendola had produced at all like they did last year (in spite of Amendola being hurt) we would be fine for depth; if both had produced at last year's level we would have the deepest WR group in the NFL. The big question is how much of the dropoff in production has been due to injury or to Brady taking advantage of other targets (a healthy Gronk and the emergence of LaFell and to a lesser degree Wright), and how much falloff in play.