Report: Dobson will be placed on IR (Now Official)

[mayoclinic]

If either Lafell or edleman goes down were screwed. We literally don't have a 3 or 4 WR on the roster that you can trust. Thank god for the suprising play from Lafell this season

I agree that better depth is needed. But how many teams would thrive if their top 2 receivers go down? GB without Nelson and Cobb? Detroit without Johnson and Tate?

The Pats do have some depth options. Tim Wright is quite capable of playing LaFells' role. And Matt Chatham has suggested that the Pats can line up Shane Vereen at WR in place of Edelman. They have a lot of versatility, but there's clearly a dropoff.

 

[Jimke]

I agree, but I also expect the Pats to bring in some competition at split end, whether through FA or the draft. Some very talented split ends will likely end up going day 3.

Bill Belichick and company have a better chance of winning a $300 million lottery prize than drafting
a good wide receiver. I would trust mayoclinic more.

 

[Brewskies]

If either Lafell or edleman goes down were screwed. We literally don't have a 3 or 4 WR on the roster that you can trust. Thank god for the suprising play from Lafell this season

You absolutely are correct.
Lets pray they don't get hurt.

 

[Oswlek]

Edelman, Lafell, Dobson, Tyms, Boyce, DA, Gronk and Wright are all young and talented enough to be a great receiver corp for the Brady end times.

I love the spirit, Ken, but Boyce has shown nothing, Tyms had a promising camp, but hasn't done much even though the team is clearly trying to give him a few plays per game, Dobson (who I like) will go into the 2015 offseason just trying to hold onto a roster spot and DA is gone next year barring a serious cut in pay.

I agree with your overall gist, but NE will still need to bring in at least one new WR, and perhaps even three of them. It doesn't need to be Fitzgerald and a first rounder, but you still need someone to man the position and depth is a real question mark.

 

[mayoclinic]

I love the spirit, Ken, but Boyce has shown nothing, Tyms had a promising camp, but hasn't done much even though the team is clearly trying to give him a few plays per game, Dobson (who I like) will go into the 2015 offseason just trying to hold onto a roster spot and DA is gone next year barring a serious cut in pay.

I agree with your overall gist, but NE will still need to bring in at least one new WR, and perhaps even three of them. It doesn't need to be Fitzgerald and a first rounder, but you still need someone to man the position and depth is a real question mark.

The Pats currently have 5 legitimate receiving threats for Brady: Gronk, Edelman, LaFell, Wright, and Vereen. That's more than enough if they are all healthy. But Vereen is in a contract year, and the depth is very suspect right now, mainly because of Dobson's ongoing injury issues and Amendola's non-existence as a consistent weapon. Those have to be addressed next year. 14 receptions for 133 yards and 1 TD through 12 games just isn't enough productivity from the #3 and 4 WRs. No team has a ton of productivity from their #3 and 4 WRs (not receivers, including TEs and backs, but WRs), but you need more than that.

 

[BradyManny]

I agree with your overall gist, but NE will still need to bring in at least one new WR, and perhaps even three of them. It doesn't need to be Fitzgerald and a first rounder, but you still need someone to man the position and depth is a real question mark.

I agree. We have a lot riding on LaFell's health right now. Not just because he's turned into such a good player for us, but because the depth behind him is so thin.

I thought, at worst, Dobson would've been a high-upside backup behind LaFell this year - but just like many receiving prospects before him, health has really derailed his chance at success.

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree. We have a lot riding on LaFell's health right now. Not just because he's turned into such a good player for us, but because the depth behind him is so thin.

I thought, at worst, Dobson would've been a high-upside backup behind LaFell this year - but just like many receiving prospects before him, health has really derailed his chance at success.

I'm as disappointed as anyone that Dobson hasn't been able to contribute significantly this year. But realistically, how many teams aren't screwed if their top receivers get hurt, or don't have depth issues?

As far as I can tell, Indy has the best WR depth of any top team. Looking at the top offenses in the NFL right now:

- Indy: As far as I can tell this is the only team with 4 solid WR options: TY Hilton, Reggie Wayne, rookie Donte Moncrieff and Hakeem Nicks. Moncrief and Nicks, the #3 and #4 receivers, combine for 48 receptions for 633 yards and 6 TDs. TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen and RBs Ahmad Bradshaw (now on IR) and Trent Richardson make up almost all of the remaining receiving yardage.

- Denver: Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have combined for 170 receptions, 2407 yards and 17 TDs. TE Julius Thomas is the other main target. Wes Welker is the #3 WR and has 35 receptions for 294 yards and 2 TDs. The RBs (CJ Anderson, Ronnie Hillman and Monte Ball) and backup TE Jacob Tamme make up the rest of the production. The #4 and #5 WRs (Andre Caldwell and Cody Latimer) total 6 receptions for 56 yards and 0 TDs.

- San Diego: They have 3 legitimate WR threats in Keenan Allen, Malcolm Floyd and Eddie Royal, who total 154 receptions . TE Antonio Gates is their other obvious weapon. #4 WR Seyi Ajirotutu (on Captain Stone's lists of possible FAs to pursue for 2015) has all of 2 receptions for 19 yards and 0 TDs.

- Green Bay: Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have combined for 135 receptions, 2041 yards and 20 TDs through 12 games. If either one gets hurt GB is screwed. Davante Adams has had a solid rookie season (about the same production as Aaron Dobson last year) with 34 receptions for and 3 TDs, but I'm not sure he's ready to be a #1 or #2 option. RBs Eddie Lacy and James Starks and TEs Andrew Quarrless and Richard Rodgers are the next 4 top receivers, and they have a combined 78 receptions for and 8 TDs. The other receivers have a grand total of 12 receptions for 74 yards and 1 TD.

- Philadelphia: They have 3 solid receiving options in Jeremy Maclin, Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper, but little else at the WR position (Jeff Maehl, Josh Huff and Brad Smith have combined for a total of 12 receptions for 105 yards and 0 TDs. Zach Ertz, Darren Sproles, Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy are the other receiving options.

- Cincinnati: AJ Green has been injured, but he and Mohammed Sanu are the top 2 receiving options, followed by TE Jermaine Greshman and RBs Giovanni Bernard and Jeremy Hill. #3 WR Brandon Tate as 14 receptions for 159 yards and 1 TD. #4 WR Greg Little has 5 receptions for 63 yards and 0 TDs.

I don't see a lot of teams out there sitting pretty with 4 deep viable WR receiving options. Indy is the only team I've found so far (I haven't gone through them all) where the #4 WR has more than 200 yards and 1 TD. Most teams get a fair amount of receiving mileage out of TEs and RBs. We're definitely a bit thin, but most teams would be screwed if 1 or more of their top 2 WRs got hurt. If either Dobson or Amendola had produced at all like they did last year (in spite of Amendola being hurt) we would be fine for depth; if both had produced at last year's level we would have the deepest WR group in the NFL. The big question is how much of the dropoff in production has been due to injury or to Brady taking advantage of other targets (a healthy Gronk and the emergence of LaFell and to a lesser degree Wright), and how much falloff in play.

 

[BradyManny]

I don't see a lot of teams out there sitting pretty with 4 deep viable WR receiving options. Indy is the only team I've found so far (I haven't gone through them all) where the #4 WR has more than 200 yards and 1 TD. The big question is howmuch of the dropoff in production has been due to injury or to Brady taking advantage of other targets (a healthy Gronk and the emergence of LaFell and to a lesser degree Wright), and how much falloff in play.

Excellent points, and nice breakdown of comparable WR depth.

 

[BradyManny]

The big question is how much of the dropoff in production has been due to injury or to Brady taking advantage of other targets (a healthy Gronk and the emergence of LaFell and to a lesser degree Wright), and how much falloff in play.

And in terms of Amendola's drop in production - certainly an interesting question. I've been running under the assumption that it's purely a function of playing time, and which read he is on a given route. With the emergence of LaFell, even when he is in the game, he might be a read or two (gronk) lower than he was at times last year. And Wright is also taking away snaps from him.

The only way to answer the question would be if Amendola was thrust into the slot role in Edelman's stead for a length of time - which, hopefully, we will not be forced to see. I didn't see Amendola do much there in a small sample size the other night against Green Bay, but it's clear that with Edelman out, Brady was looking to Gronk first, and when he sees him single-covered, that's where he's going with the ball. For good reason.

 

[mayoclinic]

Excellent points, and nice breakdown of comparable WR depth.

Looking at some of the great WR-based offenses of recent years:

- The 2007 Pats had 4 viable receiving threats in Randy Moss and Wes Welker (210 receptions for over 2500 yards and 31 TDs) plus Donte Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney (combined for over 1000 yards and TDs). But their only other receiving threats were RB Kevin Faulk and TE Ben Watson.

- The 2013 Broncos had 3 WR threats in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker, but TE Julius Thomas and RB Knowshon Moreno were the only other major receiving threats.

- The 2011 Saints had 4 viable WR threats in Marquest Colston, Robert Meachem, Lance Moore and Devery Henderson - none was a world beater, but all had at least 30 receptions for 500 yards. That offense didn't really run out if the WRs, though: TE Jimmy Graham was the biggest threat, followed by RBs Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas (136 receptions for 1135 yards and 8 TDs).

- The 2011 Packers actually had 5 WR threats (Jordy Nelson, Greg Jennings, James Jones, Donald Driver and Randall Cobb), plus a "TE" in Jermichael Finley who was really more of a WR. But they didn't have much of a running game, and didn't involve their backs or TEs (other than Finley) in their passing game.

- The 2004 Colts had 3 WRs who accounted for 75% of Peyton Manning's 4557 yards and 49 TDs. RB Edgerring James and TE Dallas Clark were the only other viable receiving options.

Of course, none of those teams won the SB.

 

[mayoclinic]

And in terms of Amendola's drop in production - certainly an interesting question. I've been running under the assumption that it's purely a function of playing time, and which read he is on a given route. With the emergence of LaFell, even when he is in the game, he might be a read or two (gronk) lower than he was at times last year. And Wright is also taking away snaps from him.

The only way to answer the question would be if Amendola was thrust into the slot role in Edelman's stead for a length of time - which, hopefully, we will not be forced to see. I didn't see Amendola do much there in a small sample size the other night against Green Bay, but it's clear that with Edelman out, Brady was looking to Gronk first, and when he sees him single-covered, that's where he's going with the ball. For good reason.

It's really hard for even the best QBs to spread the ball around to more than 5-6 guys, including TEs and RBs. I showed some of the stats for the top scoring offenses of the past decade+: the 2013 Broncos, 2007 Patriots, 2011 Packers and Saints, and 2004 Colts. The most diverse was probably the 2011 Saints, where you had 4 WRs, 1 TE/WR (Graham) and 2 RBs (Sproles and Thomas) who were legitimate receiving threats. But it's hard to distribute the ball to keep everyone involved.

Amendola was banged up last year, but not unproductive. If he had been healthy, he probably would have had an excellent year given the rookie WRs. This year he's stuck behind Gronk and Edelman, and LaFell, Vereen and Wright are different kind of weapons, so he's at best the #6 option for Brady in most cases. Depth is obviously good, but I wonder how many guys will be able to sit quietly while the majority of the passes go elsewhere. It will be interesting to see what Amendola can do this week if Edelman is signficantly hobbled, and he moved up in the priority queue.

My personal guess is that Amendola is probably a pretty talented #3 WR option on a team where the #3 WR isn't a focal point (unlike Denver last year). It's more an issue of his cap hit than anything else.

 

[Sicilian]

Hell, yes--the team needs to address the position of WR in the offseason, whether that's through the draft or free agency.

That goes without saying, and certainly isn't "chasing a shiny hood ornament." It's addressing a position of weakness.

All they really have is LaFell and Edelman (whether or not Amendola stays is irrelevant to many). Imagine if one of those players became injured, not to mention the fact that you need adequate depth behind them, even if they're healthy.

I think it depends on your definition of "address". Does the team need some competition for the 3-4-5 WR's? Sure. Do they need to spend a high draft pick or sign a WR for more than a couple million per year to do that? Hell no.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think it depends on your definition of "address". Does the team need some competition for the 3-4-5 WR's? Sure. Do they need to spend a high draft pick or sign a WR for more than a couple million per year to do that? Hell no.

Exactly.

For all the grief the Pats get about their WRs, they have gotten tremendous productivity out of Edelman and LaFell for very reasonable cost. Edelman was a 7th round pick and QB conversion product who they developed.

Mike Reiss had this from his chat today:

John S. (Southington, Connecticut): Another disappointing end to Aaron Dobson's season. Should the Pats alter their methodology for judging WR talent in the draft? Perhaps they should select players that their current criteria rules out!

Mike: John, this might come across a little harshly, but I believe it to be the truth. Everything they liked about Dobson was spot-on -- he has good size, athleticism, catches the ball well, runs well, good kid etc. -- but the one area where I think the miscalculation shows up is how the player would adapt to a hard-driving, competitive environment. This place isn't for everyone. You look at the WRs who have made it here -- Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, now Brandon LaFell -- they rose up to that challenge and showed the necessary competitive drive to seize that top role. The QB demands a lot. So does the head coach. Some rise up to that, others not so much. Dobson hasn't shown it just yet. Can it happen? I don't think the book is closed, but it's not trending in the right direction, obviously.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/boston/chat/_/id/51419

I think those 3 guys - and Wes Welker, whom Reiss didn't mention - where all incredible driven, hard-working guys who honed their routes and timing with Brady, and really studied film. I'm not sure who out there would qualify, at a reasonable price. Jason Avant comes to mind (he was lauded for his work ethic and leadership in Philly), but he's 31, and with a coach he knows in Andy Reid.

 

[patfanken]

I love the spirit, Ken, but Boyce has shown nothing, Tyms had a promising camp, but hasn't done much even though the team is clearly trying to give him a few plays per game, Dobson (who I like) will go into the 2015 offseason just trying to hold onto a roster spot and DA is gone next year barring a serious cut in pay.

I agree with your overall gist, but NE will still need to bring in at least one new WR, and perhaps even three of them. It doesn't need to be Fit zgerald and a first rounder, but you still need someone to man the position and depth is a real question mark.

With beauty its all in the eye of the beholder. With Boyce I saw a raw route runner with plus speed, who never played in a game I saw where he didn't beat his man deep a couple of times. At around 5'11 200lbs, he wasn't tall, but wasn't slight. To me I always saw him as being a David Givens type but with much more raw speed. I see a real good chance of him making the team if DA is a cap cut.

As to that, I don't see DA having much leverage on his contract. His job profile has changed from the one he expected to fill when he signed. The "Welker role" no longer exists, and what does is being filled by Edleman. Getting him down to just under 2 a year would be more than fair for his new role. I like him as a receiver and would fully expect him to be productive if injuries forced him into a larger role.

Tyms isn't showing much, because he's not asked to do much but go deep and clear out zones. Think about how most people thought about Edelman before he started seeing 6-12 targets every game. Brady is giving him one or two deep throws a game, and he's getting open more times than not. But you can't bevaluate a WR if he isn't being thrown to on a regular basis

Dobson STILL had the most productive rookie WR year in the BB era, despite missing a lot of time due to injury. This year has been a lost one for a lot of reasons. Anyone who wants to jettison him because of what happened is just dumb at worst and extremely short sighted at best

For all of these kids frankly trying to speculate what they might become is nothing more than that UNTIL, they get shot a getting some consistent targets at some point down the road. It was only then that Edelman started to shine. That's what makes it so intriguing to think about having them all back for another full preseason and TC. I think this group has the potential of giving the WR group its first real shot at some stability in a very long time. Don't forget that this offense thrives on familiararity

 

[BradyManny]

Looking at some of the great WR-based offenses of recent years:

Of course, none of those teams won the SB.

Great stuff. Interesting that none of these WR-fueled teams won the title. And in each case, I think the teams had full health of these weapons, so that was not a factor.

In terms of being top-heavy, looks like as you say its unusual to go that deep at the position. Saints looked like the deepest offense. Other than that, the depth of our weapons is comparable.

 

[Oswlek]

With beauty its all in the eye of the beholder. With Boyce I saw a raw route runner with plus speed, who never played in a game I saw where he didn't beat his man deep a couple of times. At around 5'11 200lbs, he wasn't tall, but wasn't slight. To me I always saw him as being a David Givens type but with much more raw speed. I see a real good chance of him making the team if DA is a cap cut.

As to that, I don't see DA having much leverage on his contract. His job profile has changed from the one he expected to fill when he signed. The "Welker role" no longer exists, and what does is being filled by Edleman. Getting him down to just under 2 a year would be more than fair for his new role. I like him as a receiver and would fully expect him to be productive if injuries forced him into a larger role.

Tyms isn't showing much, because he's not asked to do much but go deep and clear out zones. Think about how most people thought about Edelman before he started seeing 6-12 targets every game. Brady is giving him one or two deep throws a game, and he's getting open more times than not. But you can't bevaluate a WR if he isn't being thrown to on a regular basis

Dobson STILL had the most productive rookie WR year in the BB era, despite missing a lot of time due to injury. This year has been a lost one for a lot of reasons. Anyone who wants to jettison him because of what happened is just dumb at worst and extremely short sighted at best

For all of these kids frankly trying to speculate what they might become is nothing more than that UNTIL, they get shot a getting some consistent targets at some point down the road. It was only then that Edelman started to shine. That's what makes it so intriguing to think about having them all back for another full preseason and TC. I think this group has the potential of giving the WR group its first real shot at some stability in a very long time. Don't forget that this offense thrives on familiararity

Absolutely. But the same could be said about nearly WR in the league. They've all got something working for them or else they wouldn't be on a roster in the first place. On the flip side of the coin:

Boyce - has never played up to his measured speed and was so ineffective (lost in the playbook?) in the preseason that not a single team in the league thought he was worth a spot on the 53 despite being a high fourth just last year.

DA - He doesn't have any leverage, but that's the same reason why NE may not want him back. Bill clearly likes and respects him, so it could be similar to Edelman being behind Welker. The problem is that Edelman had talent that jumped off the screen every camp whereas Amendola still looks like half the player he was before tearing his groin. If it is entirely because of injury and he's willing to take a big pay cut, I could see him back.

Tyms - he's been asked to do more lately. Every game the past few weeks NE has put him on the field for a few snaps in a play designed for him. He was able to get past a double team in Indy, but otherwise has looked a little out of synch.

Dobson - I said in the prior note that I still like him, but he has a long way to go to even make the roster next year. If he was a contributor on STs, I'd consider it a lock, but without that he'll need to be right there with LaFell. There's a reason why healthy 3rd year players are rarely weekly inactives.

 

[doesntmatter1]

Nice list Mayo but I still would like enough quality receivers to go 3 wide like we often did in 07 and know that all three are an option. And if Amendola is our #3, then he is basically a full time decoy. I just don't know what happened to Amendola's pure quickness.

Also, the Bengals are so bad without Green. Losing him seems to be the equivalent of us losing Gronk and Edelman. I would go as far to say they are on par w/ the Jags when he is out of the lineup.

 

[doesntmatter1]

And to Oswlek. If it comes down to it, I believe Dobson can play ST. I vividly remember that he was one of the better gunners in the senior bowl. I actually believe his showing on st that day played a massive role in us drafting him because he didn't do much as receiver that game. Might be something worth monitoring next training camp.

 

[Luxusdk]

And to Oswlek. If it comes down to it, I believe Dobson can play ST. I vividly remember that he was one of the better gunners in the senior bowl. I actually believe his showing on st that day played a massive role in us drafting him because he didn't do much as receiver that game. Might be something worth monitoring next training camp.

Do you beleave Patriots used a 2 rounder on a gunner?

 

[Kontradiction]

Do you beleave Patriots used a 2 rounder on a gunner?

Eh, they used a second rounder for Tavon Wilson so anything is possible.