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Relativity Index for Pats/Broncos: This will be a tough game

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ice_Ice_Brady, Oct 6, 2009.

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  1. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

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    The relativity index measures how teams perform in yards/points compared to how other teams have fared against the same opponents. Last week, in my relativity index, I predicted a very close game with the Patriots having an edge due to home field. I also pointed out the Ravens' defense is not that good in 2009, and has become overrated due to past reputation. Finally, the stats predicted that it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots scored 30 or more points.

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ity-index-pats-ravens-you-will-surprised.html

    Last week, the predictions were pretty accurate. 11-2 overall and 9-3-1 ATS. For the record, I do not expect to continue at this pace, and I think anything over 50% is good when going against Vegas. Nor am I encouraging anyone to place money on games. For those of you who requested, I will be posting the league relativity index later this week, which ranks each team's offense, defense, and overall expectancy based on past results.

    Unfortunately the stats are not skewed to favor the Patriots every week. That said, these are just stats, and on any given Sunday anything can happen. This week, the outlook is similar to last week, in that both teams are really close. But the Broncos have the edge due to homefield advantage. The Patriots did not improve much because Buffalo was exposed by Miami last week, and the relativity index expects teams to stay around the same, so a win over the Ravens (as predicted) did not really elevate the Patriots.

    When the Patriots have the ball:

    The Patriots have scored 21.8 ppg, and tallied 376 ypg. Their opponents have allowed 19.4 ppg and 311.5 ypg against other teams. The Patriots offense has a relativity ranking of 2.4 ppg and 64.5 ypg, 9th in the league. The Pats offense has yet to kick it into high gear and need to prove they are still elite.

    The Broncos have allowed 6.5 ppg and 239.8 ypg. Their opponents have scored 20.4 ppg and tallied 316.8 ypg against other teams. The Broncos defense has a relativity ranking of 13.9 ppg aand 77 ypg, 2nd in the league. This is an absurdly dominating defense so far, ranked a hair below the Jets, but good for second in the league. These two teams are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest.

    You may be surprised to see just how dominant the Broncos defense has been against some decent offenses. The Patriots will struggle to score points in this game, especially dealing with the demons at Invesco Field. In order to win the Patriots will absolutely need to capitalize on the red zone opportunities they get. Denver wants to make this a game of field position an rely on their home crowd for some key turnovers. I'm sure Josh McD has studied the Jets' gameplan, and Champ Bailey can do what Darrelle Revis did.

    When the Broncos have the ball:

    The Broncos are averaging 19.8 ppg and 365 ypg. Their opponents have allowed 23.2 ppg and 370.6 ypg against other teams. The Broncos' offense has a relativity ranking of -3.4 ppg and -5.6 ypg, 21st in the league. The stats suggest the Broncos do not have a very good offense, but it is far better than the dismal predictions this preseason.

    The Patriots are allowing 17.8 ppg and 287.5 ypg. Their opponents are averaging 23.4 ppg 342.3 ypg. The Patriots' defense has a relativity ranking of 5.6 ppg and 54.8 ypg, 4th in the league. The Patriots defense has been really good against some strong offensive teams.

    Look for the Patriots defense to come up big again on Sunday, but like their offense, this game will come down to the red zone. The Broncos will look to make this a game of field position and hope to capitalize on a few big plays, believing their defense will hold the Patriots when it matters.

    Overall

    The Patriots have a relativity index of 7.76

    The Broncos have a relativity index of 7.48


    My metrics have the Patriots and Broncos each scoring around 15 points. The Broncos have the home field edge, although the Patriots probably have a much bigger potential than they've shown, while it's hard to imagine the Broncos playing much better. Of course, the Broncos could make a huge statement with a win on Sunday.

    As stated above, the Broncos will likely try to make this a slow-moving game, counting on their defense to win the battle of field position. They will challenge Tom Brady to throw into coverage. The Patriots cannot afford to make mistakes in the red zone... and I don't mean just turnovers. They can't afford to drop passes, miss passes, or make penalties in the face of a loud Denver crowd. They need to score at least two touchdowns in order to take this one.

    Kyle Orton will be less of a factor than people believe. He is the quarterback of this team due to his game managing skills and safe play. Orton will run the offense and not force the ball into coverage. The Broncos know they can win a battle of short, accurate passes and use their running attack behind a good offensive line.

    The Patriots have struggled historically when playing in Denver. In fact, this is a house of horrors. The 2009 team better score at least two touchdowns when in the red zone, or the Broncos will win a close, low-scoring contest. The problem is, the Patriots might not get as many opportunities in the red zone as people think. This isn't 2007 anymore. This game will come down to a few key plays.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2009
  2. unoriginal

    unoriginal In the Starting Line-Up

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    It will likely be a close loss with the deciding factor being how many people the Pats have to devote to blocking Dumervil.

    They may only need one if they can get the running game going.
     
  3. ALP

    ALP Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    i love ur analysis....

    but this time ill go w/ the any given sunday mantra....

    theres more to this game than stats, its also the coaches

    its also improvement....were getting better, where ares denver is on a platue (really nice platue yes, but platue none the less)

    brady will be better, and welker is back.....we trust our running game more

    the defense is better now then in week 2

    i say we take this game comfortably, but anything can happen

    however, we do score 30+ and give up points in the teens
     
  4. JSn

    JSn Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    How does this affect your RI calculations:

    Broncos could be without Buckhalter - Extra Points - Boston.com

     
  5. Ice_Ice_Brady

    Ice_Ice_Brady In the Starting Line-Up

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    I wish I had some kind of "injury" equation, but that's where you'd just have to use your mental skills to factor it in. A healthy Mayo and Welker, along with an injured Buckhalter, might tip the scales a little. Then again, I've always felt that in the NFL, you are always guessing and taking your "best shot" at predictions, since there are always so many players that are not on the injury report but really hampered by something. Of course there are exceptions, like when superstar players are out.
     
  6. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If we stick with the run and continue to pound the rock to take some of the heat off Brady, we should easily win this game.
     
  7. tsiguy96

    tsiguy96 Rookie

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    patriots have barely sniffed 30 points in any game this year, and you expect them to put up 30 against the #1 defense in the league, #2 when using these metrics? good one...
     
  8. Big-T

    Big-T Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #51 Jersey

    Bronco's fans are saying the team struggle with screen passes, so if that's been picked up on tape (and it probably has) I'd expect to see a lot of screens this week, it will also help keep Dumervil away from Brady.
     
  9. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You should go over to the Broncos forum. A lot of them are predicting a 31-7 win over the Pats. :rofl:
     
  10. Big-T

    Big-T Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #51 Jersey


    I saw that :rofl: there could be some very disgruntled Bronco fans Sunday night if they're really expecting a blowout :rofl:
     
  11. makoute

    makoute In the Starting Line-Up

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    That's a big if! Since the coaching staff seems to be anti run.
     
  12. Patriotic Fervor

    Patriotic Fervor Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    The weather forecast for Denver at game time is rain/snow (or maybe snow/rain - in any event, it will be on the cold side), so I think we'll see a fair amount of running from both teams.

    As for Denver fans' talk of a blow out, that's wishful thinking. They don't really have to horses for blowing out a quality team, even at home.

    With all due respect to Brandon Marshall (on offense) and Champ Bailey (on defense), they need more.

    Josh has them playing well, but this is the NFL, and it's still very early. Let's see how things look, say, about 5 weeks from now. We'll have a better picture then....
     
  13. TheComeback

    TheComeback 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    The Broncos' defense is overrated. You don't go from worst to first in one year just because of a scheme change. It doesn't happen.

    They've played some good games, but that D is not going to continue at this pace all year. If they do, I'll be extremely surprised.

    Broncos fans are truly stupid if they think they're going to blow us out. Our D matches up well with their offense. All they have is Marshall and Knowshon. Just double Marshall. Royal has not shown the ability to get open on a regular basis this year. Orton takes good care of the ball but that's about it. I'd compare him to Matt Cassel.

    It should be another close game. If the Broncos defense proves to be as overrated as I think it is, it won't be.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2009
  14. tsiguy96

    tsiguy96 Rookie

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    no D has ever continued at a pace of 6.5ppg. ever. so no, they wont continue at this pace. they have 7 new starters on defense and only the good players from last year remain, THAT is why they are better. this isnt the same defense as last year, this defense is playing great team football.

    no one thinks the broncos will blow the pats out. go to the orangemane where more intelligent fans are, most are predicting a close game either way.
     
  15. McDefense

    McDefense Rookie

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    I don't know what forum you were on but I live on those message boards and while most are predicting a Bronco win (as well we should that is our team) only a few have predicted a blow out. I didn't see one 31-7 score anywhere. In fact most are predicting a very close game. Some are even picking the pats to win. So NO a lot of us are not predicting a 31-7 Bronco win, but I hope they do.
     
  16. KontradictioN

    KontradictioN Do you even lift? PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I saw it in a couple of posts over there. It's really no different then people over here predicting a big blowout against a quality opponent. I just thought it was funny is all. Your guys' defense is pretty good, but I highly doubt it's going to hold the Pats to just 7 points.
     
  17. BradyManny

    BradyManny Pro Bowl Player

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    This is great stuff Ice Ice Brady, I look forward to it each week now, as its a much better way of looking at statistics than the usual.

    That said, I do look for the Pats to break out this week and score more this week - though I have been impressed w Denver, and their defense looked pretty legit against Dallas from what I saw on NFLN in rewatch last nite. But the Pats O is damn near clicking, and as 2007 showed, there is only a defense or two out there that can stop this O when its clicking, and I'm not sure Denver is one.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2009
  18. NYCPatsFan

    NYCPatsFan In the Starting Line-Up

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    Please continue to post such analysis. Very interesting. If the Pats do come away with a solid W as I expect, it will be more interesting to see what the #s are.

    Thanks for doing this!
     
  19. dman444

    dman444 Rookie

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    Hey guys, Broncos fan here to talk a little football.

    While the Broncos defense will certainly not end the year with a 6.5 ppg allowed, I can't seem to justify you calling them over rated. Regardless of who we have played so far, although two of the teams have put up good offensive numbers in their other games, holding an opponent to under a touchdown is incredible.

    Our defense is completely new from last years. We have very few returning players from last years squad. Dumerville, Williams, Peterson, and Champ all started; that's it. Nolan has come in here and established a new attitude that Dawkins has reinforced. We haven't seen our D playing with this much intensity and ferocity since 2005. So you can say they may slip a little, but they certainly are not over rated.

    Our offense has struggled to score, but I think that will change. It may not happen this game, but it will. Royal has been seeing most of the double teams and he is playing our #2 WR position. McD is not focusing on that position either. Had Royal been put into the slot I think he would be excelling, frankly, that's one of my few complaints against McD.

    To say we only have Marshall and Knowshon is an understatement as well. To go along with those two players we have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. Our LT hasn't given up a full sack in 19, a record, and he doesn't seem to be relenting. Also Stokely and Gaffney have been tearing it up in the slot for us this year. If our offense clicks I think we win the game.

    I don't really know any fans that think we'll blow you guys out either, I'm actually predicting a loss by 10-13 pts. I just think we'll see a little step back this week, but hopefully pick it up next week against the Chargers.

    Seems like you guys have some reasonable thinkers on here so good luck! I may come back a couple times as well.
     
    Last edited: Oct 7, 2009
  20. dman444

    dman444 Rookie

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    Oh yeah, I forgot to compliment you on the great analysis work you did. Great read.
     
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