RB situation...

[emoney_33]

VJC you did a whole lot of nothing wit that post, nice job. He didn't have a great 2009, but you can't use 1 season to prove that he's a mediocre RB. Even with the struggles in 2009 he had a high success rate (11th in the NFL).

Now look at his numbers in 2007 compared to 2009. In 2007 he was top 10 in DYAR, DVOA, EYDS, and 2nd in success rate. In 2009 he was in the mid-high 20's in DYAR, DVOA, EYDS, and 11th in success rate.

Did the OL struggles and playcalling in 2009 impact his effectiveness, or did he take a permanent and signficant step down since the injury in 2008? I think it's more likely the former.

And btw, you can't really judge his vision so you may want to throw that type of analysis out. He's also not "very poor" pass blocking, and the Ravens Ray Lewis play you point to was played WELL by him.

 

[Sicilian]

VJC you did a whole lot of nothing wit that post, nice job. He didn't have a great 2009, but you can't use 1 season to prove that he's a mediocre RB. Even with the struggles in 2009 he had a high success rate (11th in the NFL).

Now look at his numbers in 2007 compared to 2009. In 2007 he was top 10 in DYAR, DVOA, EYDS, and 2nd in success rate. In 2009 he was in the mid-high 20's in DYAR, DVOA, EYDS, and 11th in success rate.

Did the OL struggles and playcalling in 2009 impact his effectiveness, or did he take a permanent and signficant step down since the injury in 2008? I think it's more likely the former.

And btw, you can't really judge his vision so you may want to throw that type of analysis out. He's also not "very poor" pass blocking, and the Ravens Ray Lewis play you point to was played WELL by him.

Agreed. No good comparison of running backs takes into account total yards, IMO. Also, those numbers don't reflect his ability to catch (which is underutilized I feel) and I agree, he's at WORST an average pass blocker.

Oh, and he also holds the Patriots single game playoff record for yards (in which he also averaged almost 5 ypc and scored a TD), and he did that in back to back playoff games. He's not a horse, he's not a stud, he's not irreplaceable, but he's an asset and a good one for cheap.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Agreed. No good comparison of running backs takes into account total yards, IMO.

Oh really, so statistics are meaningless for RBs now? You mean according to those stats posted, Adrian Peterson is NOT at least one of the top 5 RBs in the NFL? Since according to you 'total yards are meaningless' after all.

And Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson are not two of the most explosive young RBs in the NFL, since the 'YPC stats' are meaningless? Why do RB production totals suddenly become 'meaningless' when they might paint Laurency Maroney as what he actually is, a mediocre producer in the rushing game?

Stats don't tell everything about a player, that much I will agree with. However they are far from meaningless. Sometimes when the emperor walks into the room without clothes, that's just exactly what it means. The dude is NAKED, let's not try to pretend otherwise. The numbers speak for themselves.

 

[patsinthesnow]

In VJC defense, YPC (IMO) is the most telling stat of a RB. Maroney being ranked #23 at 3.9 ypc is NOT good.

What stat shows Maroney as a good RB? Maroney is best described as expendable.

 

[emoney_33]

In VJC defense, YPC (IMO) is the most telling stat of a RB. Maroney being ranked #23 at 3.9 ypc is NOT good.

What stat shows Maroney as a good RB? Maroney is best described as expendable.

YPC is definitely a more telling stat than total yardage, and if you had to choose one simplistic statistic to start with that's what you choose. Maroney had a relatively mediocre 2009 season after missing all of 2008, with the OL strugges/injuries, the playcalling and the high percentage of runs compared to snaps when Maroney was in the game, there may be outside factors that impacted that. But that is still only one season.

Maroney is best described as cheap value. He's not great, but he contributes and is cheap. He's more valuable to the Patriots than other teams, and trading him now just doesn't make a lot of sense, so I wouldn't call him 'expendable'. No one defending him is claiming him to be great. He's a little above average and provides consistency for cheap money.

 

[Sicilian]

Oh really, so statistics are meaningless for RBs now? You mean according to those stats posted, Adrian Peterson is NOT at least one of the top 5 RBs in the NFL? Since according to you 'total yards are meaningless' after all.

And Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson are not two of the most explosive young RBs in the NFL, since the 'YPC stats' are meaningless? Why do RB production totals suddenly become 'meaningless' when they might paint Laurency Maroney as what he actually is, a mediocre producer in the rushing game?

Stats don't tell everything about a player, that much I will agree with. However they are far from meaningless. Sometimes when the emperor walks into the room without clothes, that's just exactly what it means. The dude is NAKED, let's not try to pretend otherwise. The numbers speak for themselves.

First, I never said YPC stats are meaningless. I said TOTAL yards only, and I stand by that.

Second, if A then B, does NOT EQUAL if B then A. In other words, because I said you can't judge a RB based on total yards, that does NOT mean that the best RB in the game might not have great total yards numbers. So you saying I don't think Adrian Peterson is a great running back is invalid.

Third, as emoney stated, you're using 1 season to justify a player's worth. Hell, Tom Brady had the 9th best QB rating last year, but are you going to plan your team going forward saying he's the 9th best QB in the league? No, because his TOTAL body of work speaks otherwise. As such, I'm using Maroney's 4.2 YPC career average in the equation, as well as some clutch performances in what was nearly a 19-0 season. You want to discount those in favor of these magic numbers that speak for themselves, you go ahead.

 

[JackBauer]

Maroney can be a very good RB for the right team. New England is not that team. Trying to force a square peg into a round hole helps neither the Pats or Maroney. NE needs a power back a la Corey Dillon. NE needs a guy that they can give the ball to on 3rd and goal on the 1, the D knows a run is coming, and we still have a pretty good chance of getting the TD. For every 20+ yard highlight reel run Maroney has in NE he has about 5 dance around and lose 4 yard runs. A change of scenery would do both him and the Pats good, and if they get a draft pick for him all the better.

Remember, I'm not saying Maroney sucks. He IS good. Just that his run style and the Pats blocking scheme do not mix well.

Even if we were to concede your assertions here, which I do not, I think this is more an indictment of the OL's run-blocking capabilities than of Maroney's running style.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Even if we were to concede your assertions here, which I do not, I think this is more an indictment of the OL's run-blocking capabilities than of Maroney's running style.

You mean the same line that Fred Taylor averaged 4.3 YPC with?
Or Sammy Morris with 4.4?
Or Kevin Faulk with 5.4?
Even Law Firm averaged 4.4, yet we shouldn't ship Maroney in exchange for a good pick?

Fred Taylor
Sammy Morris
Kevin Faulk
BenJarvus Green-Ellis

 

[emoney_33]

You mean the same line that Fred Taylor averaged 4.3 YPC with?
Or Sammy Morris with 4.4?
Or Kevin Faulk with 5.4?
Even Law Firm averaged 4.4, yet we shouldn't ship Maroney in exchange for a good pick?

Fred Taylor
Sammy Morris
Kevin Faulk
BenJarvus Green-Ellis

Why are people so intent on making themselves look like fools?

Faulk: runs primarily on draws and on passing downs
BJGE: LOL, 26 total attempts, mostly in garbage time, with 25% of his yards coming on one 29-yard run. (3.4 YPC in garbage time without that run)
Morris: More small sample size fun (73 carries)! He was generally 3rd on the depth chart and got 17% of his yards on one 55-yard run. (3.7 YPC without that one run).
Taylor: He generally looked good when he was in there but only managed to be healthy enough for 63 carries.

Maroney had 194 carries and got the bulk of the work. To compare YPC to the above players as you did is disingenous at BEST. You have Maroney with a mediocre 2009 season and you choose to make the worst argument possible to prove that the OL had nothing to do with it. Classic.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Why are people so intent on making themselves look like fools?

Faulk: runs primarily on draws and on passing downs
BJGE: LOL, 26 total attempts, mostly in garbage time, with 25% of his yards coming on one 29-yard run. (3.4 YPC in garbage time without that run)
Morris: More small sample size fun (73 carries)! He was generally 3rd on the depth chart and got 17% of his yards on one 55-yard run. (3.7 YPC without that one run).
Taylor: He generally looked good when he was in there but only managed to be healthy enough for 63 carries.

Maroney had 194 carries and got the bulk of the work. To compare YPC to the above players as you did is disingenous at BEST. You have Maroney with a mediocre 2009 season and you choose to make the worst argument possible to prove that the OL had nothing to do with it. Classic.

Maroney did the worst with that line, that is beyond dispute.

I'm still wondering why he's worth so much to the team that trading him for a solid pick is a bad idea.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

The most troubling thing to me about Maroney were the critical fumbles he lost. I realize turn overs are going to happen, but he lost the ball at crucial moments in big games, and it definitely was a trend. You couple that with his indecisive running, and they are most certainly cause for concern.

 

[Sicilian]

Maroney did the worst with that line, that is beyond dispute.

I'm still wondering why he's worth so much to the team that trading him for a solid pick is a bad idea.

I think the idea is alright, but I would need a more concrete definition of "solid pick". I don't consider a 4th round pick to be good enough compensation for Maroney, as he is the only running back currently on the roster who we can count on for a full season (I realize he missed most of 2008, but he's MUCH more durable than Morris or Taylor at this point in their careers). BJGE could probably play a full season, but I really don't think we want him as our feature back, and Faulk has never been an every down back for a full season, let alone at 33.

So you'd be getting a 4th rounder, which has what, a 25% chance of being a decent player? Then the plan is to replace Maroney with a rookie?

If someone were to offer a 2nd (0% chance of that happening), that's the type of deal you can't refuse (which is what I think happened with Seymour, similar situation where we had no adequate replacement but created the hole because the deal value was so good, at least BB perceived). But if we're not blown away by the offer, it's a bigger hole than people think IMO.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Why are people so intent on making themselves look like fools?

uhhh.....to be like you?

 

[JackBauer]

You mean the same line that Fred Taylor averaged 4.3 YPC with?
Or Sammy Morris with 4.4?
Or Kevin Faulk with 5.4?
Even Law Firm averaged 4.4, yet we shouldn't ship Maroney in exchange for a good pick?

Fred Taylor
Sammy Morris
Kevin Faulk
BenJarvus Green-Ellis

emoney already did a solid job dismantling that line of argument, but for me it's quite simple.

We already have sizable holes to fill at RDE, OLB (perhaps x2), TE, WR, and P (and that's an optimistic assessment of the situation).

Some people are claiming we ought to trade Maroney, who is essentially our only dependable RB, for a 3rd or a 4th round pick, thereby creating yet another hole to be replaced by an unknown commodity.

I think the most prudent course of action for next season is to retain Maroney and draft another RB to pair with him. Maroney is cheap and his value is greater to us as a relatively productive RB than whatever we'd get in return for shipping him out, in addition to the vagaries of the draft and the bust potential of his replacement. I'd rather draft a RB with one of the picks we currently have and run with Maroney + draft pick than trade Maroney for an additional draft pick and run with draft pick + Taylor (?) + Morris (?) + BJGE.

 

[Snake Eyes]

I think the idea is alright, but I would need a more concrete definition of "solid pick". I don't consider a 4th round pick to be good enough compensation for Maroney, as he is the only running back currently on the roster who we can count on for a full season (I realize he missed most of 2008, but he's MUCH more durable than Morris or Taylor at this point in their careers). BJGE could probably play a full season, but I really don't think we want him as our feature back, and Faulk has never been an every down back for a full season, let alone at 33.

So you'd be getting a 4th rounder, which has what, a 25% chance of being a decent player? Then the plan is to replace Maroney with a rookie?

If someone were to offer a 2nd (0% chance of that happening), that's the type of deal you can't refuse (which is what I think happened with Seymour, similar situation where we had no adequate replacement but created the hole because the deal value was so good, at least BB perceived). But if we're not blown away by the offer, it's a bigger hole than people think IMO.

I'd be more than fine with a 3rd, or a 4th and a 5th. There are backs on the FA market that can be plugged in and do a comparable job to Maroney that we can get for 0 draft picks, so why not? I think we'd actually make the offense a lot more effective with a solid fullback than splitting hairs over mediocre RBs.

 

[JackBauer]

I'd be more than fine with a 3rd, or a 4th and a 5th. There are backs on the FA market that can be plugged in and do a comparable job to Maroney that we can get for 0 draft picks, so why not? I think we'd actually make the offense a lot more effective with a solid fullback than splitting hairs over mediocre RBs.

Which RBs did you have in mind, exactly?

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

I think people are forgetting that there is going to be another of round of cuts coming in July, and there will almost certainly be needs addressed with these players.

 

[JackBauer]

I think people are forgetting that there is going to be another of round of cuts coming in July, and there will almost certainly be needs addressed with these players.

In that case, I'd prefer to cut Morris and replace him with a more capable FA.

Maroney + FA + draft pick + ...

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I think people are forgetting that there is going to be another of round of cuts coming in July, and there will almost certainly be needs addressed with these players.

like I said....replace taylor in morris with one draft pick and someone else's reject......then replace maroney after next year or the year after if he is an RFA

 

[alvinnf]

I think people are forgetting that there is going to be another of round of cuts coming in July, and there will almost certainly be needs addressed with these players.

This is a great point. I have a feeling the true gem's of this stange free agency period have yet to reveal themselves...... Look at all the high end guys whom got released prior to March 5th. The second wave could be juicier and less expensive......