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Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by upstater1, Mar 4, 2010.

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  1. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    There's a proliferation of threads about making plays for free agents and guys like Olsen.

    In this era where you have to pay guys big bucks and give up draft picks, it's not a smart solution. It worked with Wes Welker and Moss because of a weak draft and how special the two players were, but I don't see anything like that available. Plus, Welker is cheap.

    On the draft page here, some of us have been projecting drafts, and it's possible for the Patriots to take 4 players who are being projected as first rounders by the experts (i.e. some players have first round value but are being dropped because of the sheer number of great players available).

    As part of the draft game exercise, I made these picks based on trades all made according to the value chart:

    32. OLB Brandon Graham
    33. DE Jared Odrick
    45. ILB Brandon Spikes
    60. WR Arrelious Benn
    71. G Joe Asamoah
    99. WR Mardy Gilyard
    119. TE Colin Peek

    This is just an example.

    But the draft is stocked this year. There is no reason to go after restricted free agents with big salary demands. None at all.
  2. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

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    I agree with your conclusion, but others could have a different perspective. But I 100% agree that the approach you used (putting names to the picks that would be lost) is the only one that makes sense when evaluating RFAs.
  3. mcmurtry86

    mcmurtry86 Rookie

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    Even in the best draft years, 50% of 2nd rounders are flops. Giving up a 2nd rounder for a player who is proven and young(ish) makes sense.
  4. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Follow the money. You're paying a lot of cash to the guys you bring in here with a trade.

    This draft is the strongest since 1983. Having four picks in the top means you can afford to miss on one.

    But if you shave that to three picks, and you miss on one, then what? You've brought in 2 players and a high priced veteran rather than 3 guys with first round values.

    I am highly confident that some of the guys I'm listing will be excellent NFL players, but I'm less sure of Spikes and Benn. I bet one of them turns out to be really good, and there's a good probability that the other will bust. If I knew ahead of time which of the two would be the bust, I wouldn't pick him. But I do know that with more picks, I increase my chances and I get players on the cheap which will allow me to bring in unrestricted free agents in the future and/or trade picks for restricted free agents in years with weak drafts.
  5. JackBauer

    JackBauer On the Roster

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    I don't think categorical pronouncements are that useful, because it's not that black and white.

    For example, if they lose Bodden, trading a 2nd for Marshall makes sense.
  6. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    I would try to sign Robinson for Bodden money if that happened. I'd go the free agent route. I think there's a reason teams are tendering decent players at the 2nd round rate, or in Brandon Marshall's case, for a first rounder. Teams are hoping other teams will bite.
  7. Christopher Patriot

    Christopher Patriot Rookie

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    Listen I would take a Marshall, Boldin, Pierre Thomas, even Greg Olsen compared to a risk that could turn into a Bethel, Johnson, Chad, Jackson, Terrance Wheatley, I'll put it like this who here would be upset if Belichick traded Ron Brace, for Marshall, or Boldin. You can't be sure your hitting on every pick, If a guy in the second isn't rated as a first on your board, I would even prefer trading down to get more picks for a chance that one of the 2 second tier guys could become a impact player. Or your fielding a team with jags, And you could have Belichick as head coach with assistants Lombardi, and landry, youd still get knocked out the first round of the play-offs I want a aggressive yet smart off season.
  8. JackBauer

    JackBauer On the Roster

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    As Texans fans will attest, Robinson sucks. Marshall is the younger, better, and more durable option.
  9. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

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    I have to agree and then some. If someone on this forum will explain to me why they 100% believe a twenty one year old kid can jump into the NFL and perform as a starter more than 18% of the time in normal NFL years, please explain that to me?

    If we have those seven listed players come in (and I agree they all sound fine to me) only 1.26% of them (say two players) will have any impact on the 2010 Patriots. If you look at last year in a very successful Draft, no one is a starter and Butler, Volmer, Edleman and Prior only had significant non-ST time.

    That is impressive for the most part but the Pats do not really Draft well in the second round. Of course Chad Jackson but Brace and Wheately come to mind with Wheatley as a complete bust and Brace.....?. They do have some very convincing scouts shouting it up in the war room to Draft a guy like Ohrnberger who was a fourth rounder and a pip-squeak at that and 6' 2" 290lb Guards are not in great demand but we moved up for him I believe. Then there was Slater we did trade up for when he could have been had as a UDFA. Who was the scout who was loud, arrogant and adamant about O'Connell in the third? Now a third this year can get Anquan Bolden (we would have to make a third happen). Who does not see that as a value?
    O'Connell for Bolden? Yep it is a different year, Just making a point. We are Drafting to better our team in 2011 and 2012. Please understand that.

    Another case in point. Sanchez this year. First rounder. The Jets got deeper into the playoffs than the Pats. Was this all Sanchez? Nope. It was a bevy of FA signings and Trades that Rex pulled off.

    How is the core of the Saints made? Are they in the Super Bowl without Brees, Vilma, Shockey, Sharper, Thomas, Gay, Shandley, Fujita and more?....Nope.

    Give me a good player that has proven themselves for a Draft pick anyday. Todd McShay even commented on that is what the Pats do best..

    Please do not pencil these seven picks in as starters yet.

    DW Toys
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2010
  10. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Thats it in a nutshell. We all agree that from a financial and team building standpoint, acquiring players via the draft is the best way to go. However, in those instances where veteran talent is lost via FA, or in the estimation of the org, the talent required isn't available in the draft to adequately fill the position slot (value, talent, etc) then offering a tender for the right player (skill, system familiarity, good team player) is the best approach.

    As you point out, upstater1, the caveat is that by paying more you are increasing risk by reducing your payroll flexibility. Conversely, by acquiring a verteren player because he is "NFL proven", you reduce your risk and improve your chances of the player being productive. Goes both ways...
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2010
  11. PATRIOTSFANINPA

    PATRIOTSFANINPA Rookie

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    #12 Jersey

    I saw a pic today in the NE/Houston game which showed Sam Aiken catching a pass wide open to which Dunta was supposed to be on Sam...If Dunta has problems keeping crap receivers like Aiken from getting wide open for easy catches (which is RARE for Aiken),I don't want him here.
    Last edited: Mar 4, 2010
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Free agents and trades bust, too. There is no universally successful approach. Signing RFAs can be an excellent move, as Wes Welker proved. However, they aren't guarantees.
  13. upstater1

    upstater1 Rookie

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    Again, my whole take is predicated on the idea that this is the deepest draft in many moons.

    Why are teams tendering at second round level and not first? I think they recognize this as well.

    So, all I'm saying is, think about giving up what is the equivalent of a late 1st rounder for a TE like Greg Olsen.

    Take Jared Odrick for instance. The kid has all the measurables and aspects of a Ty Warren. I'm not talking about the player Ty Warren became but the player Ty Warren was on the day of the draft. Warren went about 20 to 25 picks than Odrick is slated to go.

    Can anyone argue that Warren coming out of Nebraska had more teams salivating for him than Odrick does now?

    I don't think so.
  14. signbabybrady

    signbabybrady On the Roster

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    I agree to some extent what you are saying but you leave out a few key things with the broad stroke you painted.

    1. If we offer a contract to a player tendered in the second we give up our own 2nd and keep the two better 2nd rd picks

    2. you also ignore that other teams might be stupid with their Tenders. Example I hear the Raiders tendered Kirk Morrison with a 3rd.

    3. You talk about big bucks but ignore the fact that we got Welker at a good price and a price that now is certainly well below market due to how he has performed.

    IMO signing a restricted FA should be similar to a draft pick but less risky (which you do pay a price for). The guys should be young with pretty much their whole career ahead of them but you should at this point a few years in the league have a better idea of how their potential played out.
  15. TealSox

    TealSox Guest

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    Richard Marshall is a four year player. Assuming their is no lock out in 2011 and still no CBA, Marshall could be a restricted free agent again in 2011. No? Those are some HUGE assumptions and not likely to be worth the risk unless there was some serious inside information available about the direction of the labor talks.
  16. Box_O_Rocks

    Box_O_Rocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't know which "Warren coming out of Nebraska" you may be referring to, but I have read where some pundits see similarities between NE's Ty Warren drafted #13 overall out of Texas A&M and Jared Odrick of Penn State whom some project as a first round DT. :p
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