NFLPA crys foul regarding abysmal FA market

[Reckedtrek]

I love these threads! You can find out pretty quickly who drives pickups and who drives beamers.

Anyone with over a million in the bank right now is NOT screwed. That's all of the owners and about 75% of the players. The other 25% are "screwed" by "only" making $500,000 or so this year.

I hope the Salvation Army has enough soup and bread to go around.


And stop with the "name me any other business..." crap. Many of the players in the NFL are extremely hard if not impossible to replace by simply putting an ad on Monster.com... as opposed to YOU (and me) that can be replaced by lunch time tomorrow. Don't flatter yourself in pretending otherwise.

 

[Gwedd]

Why dont they get over with already and blame it on the evil Kraft family?

No kidding. I'm surprised they haven't found a way to blame George Bush too.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Anyone with over a million in the bank right now is NOT screwed. That's all of the owners and about 75% of the players. The other 25% are "screwed" by "only" making $500,000 or so this year.

I dunno, but I think Junior Seau, RIP, might have argued that point vociferously.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

There is no way the players are going to be able to prove collusion when Mario Williams got 100 million and guys like Harvin and Wallace are getting much more than their production deserves. There really isn't any correlation between "worth" and pay, only between perceived value and the deals it engenders. Welker was far more productive than either Harvin or Wallace and got peanuts compared to them, that was based on perception, not production or verifiable reality. He's worth more but won't get paid more, that's just the way it is.

What does this have to do with collusion?

The front offices collectively share an outlook on the game wherein 1) you pay for future production not past production, 2) X or Z targets are more valuable than slot receivers, and 3) the Tom Brady factor makes it difficult to judge a receiver's worth in another offense.

You may disagree with their assessment of Welker's future production and value, and I'm sure you would have cogent points. But it's not because they're "colluding to keep Welker down", that's because they have a different opinion than you.


Anyway, I don't get the collusion accusations. The teams do everything they possibly can to get an edge, you're telling me that they will choose not to outbid the other 31 for a player they want/covet because "its all part of the plan?" Please. To me it looks like a combo of several things. Obviously the flat cap is one, but also teams are just more saavy about building a middle class and buying low than they used to be.

 

[Ivan]

I have never claimed collusion on Welker, nor would I. The market changed radically for all veteran players 30 or older for the reasons I cited earlier, at least IMO. There is no longer any correlation between production and pay for them, otherwise Welker would be making much more than he is.

 

[Ivan]

What does this have to do with collusion?

The front offices collectively share an outlook on the game wherein 1) you pay for future production not past production, 2) X or Z targets are more valuable than slot receivers, and 3) the Tom Brady factor makes it difficult to judge a receiver's worth in another offense.

You may disagree with their assessment of Welker's future production and value, and I'm sure you would have cogent points. But it's not because they're "colluding to keep Welker down", that's because they have a different opinion than you.


Anyway, I don't get the collusion accusations. The teams do everything they possibly can to get an edge, you're telling me that they will choose not to outbid the other 31 for a player they want/covet because "its all part of the plan?" Please. To me it looks like a combo of several things. Obviously the flat cap is one, but also teams are just more saavy about building a middle class and buying low than they used to be.

You must have reading comprehension problems.

 

[Rob0729]

Sue me for 1.5 to 3%. Talk about nit picking.

So the issue boils down to the player's union not anticipating that the rich new TV deal wouldn't show increases until a few years in, rather than from day one. Big F'n deal. They've guaranteed themselves a far bigger slice of that larger pie at the ''cost'' of delayed gratification. Yeah, they got hosed.

First, you act like Smith negotiated a revenue split from 30% in the last CBA to 48.5% in this one. Gene Upshaw already negotiated a 50% split for the players. Their revenue split didn't grow and may never reach 50% during the life of the CBA.

Second, the average NFL career is three years. Most of the players who voted for Smith will never benefit from this new CBA in terms of a new contract. I am sure a guy like Welker considers this CBA a huge win because he lost millions and millions of dollars because the cap isn't going to grow until 2015 or longer. It MIGHT be a huge win for future players and players hitting free agency for the first time in 2015 or beyond, but it is a huge loss for most player who hit free agency from 2011-2014 which is a lot of players. It is also a huge loss for all those veterans cut because their cap number was too high this season.

Third, we don't know if the TV money is going to explode. We think it will in 2015, but there is no guarantee. The cap will go up in 2015, but Bob Kraft has been saying that it will not be the explosion people expect. People (including the NFLPA) laughed at Kraft when he said in 2011 that the cap would stay flat for years, but he was right. He is on the television committee and he might have inside info that the new TV deals won't be the major increases that people expect.

Here is what Kraft said just a few weeks ago about a potential cap explosion with the new TV contracts:

The prevailing thought around the NFL is that when the league's latest television contracts take effect in 2014, there will be a considerable increase in the salary cap.

Speaking at a community event on Thursday at Gillette Stadium, Patriots owner Robert Kraft refuted that notion.

"I don't really see that happening," Kraft said. "I don't think what happened in 2006 will happen in the future here, because if you understand the labor agreement and the long-term part of this, there will be a smooth growth."

"Anyone who assumes huge jumps, I hope they're in our division," Kraft said with a smile.

Kraft: Don't assume 2014 cap jump - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

So, the players were probably better off under the previous CBA that Gene Upshaw negotiated than the one that Smith negotiated. If the previous CBA was still in place, the cap would have continued to grow over the last few years and have a similar growth with the new TV deal (but it was a much higher cap).

The new CBA screwed over the players plain and simple. This is worse deal for them than the previous CBA. Smith screwed up.

 

[Rob0729]

LOL! Florio is arguing that since no RFAs have been offered contracts from other teams, it is a clear case of collusion. He points to the fact that there is no action on Cruz after reports teams would be all over him and the fact the Pats publicly brought in Sanders as proof of the grande scheme of a mass owner conspiracy. What he fails to mention is that Cruz's market might be non-existant is because of his unrealistic contract expectations.

Restricted free agency market still nonexistent | ProFootballTalk

 

[patfanken]

LOL! Florio is arguing that since no RFAs have been offered contracts from other teams, it is a clear case of collusion. He points to the fact that there is no action on Cruz after reports teams would be all over him and the fact the Pats publicly brought in Sanders as proof of the grande scheme of a mass owner conspiracy. What he fails to mention is that Cruz's market might be non-existant is because of his unrealistic contract expectations.

Restricted free agency market still nonexistent | ProFootballTalk

Forget Florio, Rob, and look at the comments. 99% of them understand that a combination of the rookie salary cap, a deep UFA market, and just plain common sense, are the reasons why RFA has dried up to nothing.

What should be clear here is that the bulk of Florio's best "sources" are agents or in the NFLPA. Mike is simply carrying the water for them, just like all the mediots do when their "sources" need something leaked. No shock here.

I don't think less of him because of it. I just wish he'd check his own readership and realize that he's beating a dead horse. His own readers aren't buying "the collusion theory", and its about time he stop beating us over the head with it. Its like every few days he comes out with the same post as if its breaking news.

 

[patfanken]

I have never claimed collusion on Welker, nor would I. The market changed radically for all veteran players 30 or older for the reasons I cited earlier, at least IMO. There is no longer any correlation between production and pay for them, otherwise Welker would be making much more than he is.

I'm not so sure that the market has so radically changes, Ivan. I think it was pretty much what it was last year, but the Pats chose to pay Welker the $9.3MM franchise figure anyway. At 32 Welker's true market, despite the past production, is what it was. (around $6MM/yr) Victor Cruz, at 26 is probably worth about $8MMyr, maybe a bit more.

Clearly there is a big gap between what the league feels is the value of a slot receiver compared to a guy who operates for the most part, outside the numbers and further downfield. I'm sure TE's feel that they are just as valuable as WRs, and Safeties feel they should make as much as CB's....but they don't.

Right now the Raiders have to operate this season with $42MM of dead money because they chose to play a few players top dollar and never saw a value for their investment. What we are seeing this off season are more and more teams just coming to the realization that you simply can't build long term success with a top heavy salary structure

Right now the Pats have a roster with 25 players who are in the sweet middle class of $1-5MM (22 are between 1-3), only 3 players exceed that. That is a strong "middle class". That's a number that could grow as high as 30 as we add players this spring.

 

[NgataTroublemaker]

Third, we don't know if the TV money is going to explode. We think it will in 2015, but there is no guarantee. The cap will go up in 2015, but Bob Kraft has been saying that it will not be the explosion people expect. People (including the NFLPA) laughed at Kraft when he said in 2011 that the cap would stay flat for years, but he was right. He is on the television committee and he might have inside info that the new TV deals won't be the major increases that people expect.

^^^This is the crux of the issue, imo.

The pedestrian deals that a lot of the current FA's are getting are a result of (most of) the owners understanding what Kraft understands.

If the revenue/cap were certain to jump significantly in 2015, then teams would/could spend that money now and offer larger multi-year deals. Contracts can be, and usually are, structured so that the initial year or two are cap-friendly. So a flat cap in 2013 and 2014 doesn't mean that long term deals signed in those years have to be small, only that the initial years' cap hits have to be small, which doesn't preclude much, if anything.

It is that the oft-mentioned "spike in salary cap after the next TV deal" is not in any way guaranteed that is making the smarter teams reluctant to sign long-term, large deals.

A lot of the larger contracts that people are using as comparisons (in judging that current deals are low) were offered and structured with the assumption that the cap would consistently rise in future years. Now that this assumption is risky to unwise, such contracts will be fewer and farther between. Or at minimum, teams will pause and see how things shake out before proceeding as before.

Obviously there are other factors affecting the current FA market as well. Such as the Skins and Boys, notorious market drivers, being effectively sidelined due to their penalties (which the NFLPA signed off on, btw), a rapidly increasing QB market, and maybe even a growing concern over signing older players due to concussion-related risks.

 

[mgteich]

Kraft has understood the details of the CBA and the TV contracts better than anyone else. Most of the owners didn't start to catch up in their knowledge until this year. It seems that the level of the cap was a surprise to many GM's and owners.

Now, the owners are reacting to the existing cap, the projection of now much higher next year, and unknown bigger increase in 2015.

The players want to prove collusion and get out of the contract.

 

[lurker1965]

They got taken to the woodshed by the owners.

NFLPA asks agents for evidence of collusion

Yes, Associations of independent contractors get colluded against. Maybe they can get help from the teamsters.

 

[Reckedtrek]

I dunno, but I think Junior Seau, RIP, might have argued that point vociferously.

Reach much? We're talking financial issues, not depression and mental health in general. You know that of course, but that didn't stop you, did it?