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good post. I would only add that predictive models aren't measured against a mythical degree of perfect accuracy, they're measured against other predictive models. In that vein FO still comes up a little short imo and it certainly doesn't beat the betting market. I just don't think predictions are FO's forte.
Good point, and again, I just don't think that football games lend themselves particularly well to predictive modeling. This is one case where it doesn't surprise me that the betting market (which is driven largely by qualitative information) fares better.