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My opinion: Welker is now closer to mediocrity than stardom


Assuming good health (a huge assumption at this point) 2013 Amendola is better than 2013 Welker. I'll grant you that 2013 Amendola may never approach 2007-2009 Wes, but that isn't NE's choice at the moment.

I also fail to see how you can criticize NE for not investing in the receiving corps when they

A) Offered Welker more money than he ultimately accepted in Denver.

B) Have handed out three $30mm contracts to receivers in just the last three years, as well as another $3mm a year to Lloyd, $6mm and two draft picks for Ocho and three other draft picks (2/4/7).

You want to fault them for the actual selections, fine. But the cheap rhetoric has no basis in reality.

Bingo... so many pundits say the Patriots wouldn't "pony up the cash" and cheaped out on Welker. You can blame their talent evaluation, not their checkbook. I don't know the actual numbers, but I'd wager to say that Amendola was one of the top 3 receivers in terms of the contract size this offseason. I'm shocked that 30 other teams also "cheaped out" on Welker when it was clearly the worst decision in NFL history not to be the highest bidder for his services.

It's the same thing with when the Redskins were "committed to winning" while teams like the Steelers and Patriots were "cheap," even though both teams spent the same amount of dollars. The difference was the Redskins allocated all of theirs to some shiny free agents while the Pats did things quietly with contract extensions.
 
In what world does nate washingtin stay healthy?


He's played in 16 games for 8 of his 9 seasons. I think he'd make a GREAT addition to this group. But then again the Hamburgler probably would too, so that's not saying much.
 
I dunno...first..Amendola is OK. But he's no Wes Welker.
I'm not suggesting that he is as good as Welker. I'm just suggesting that I'd rather have Welker on the team now, as in 2013 and also 2014--but that by the end of next season he'll definitely be slowing down and adding age. Those factors show that he likely has a shelf life that will be much shorter than his new hopeful replacement.

Going by that alone, it's possible that Amendola (just about everyone's "next" choice...by far) was brought in not just for the present, but also for the future too. Obviously his health will be a concern, but he's much younger and is comparable on many levels.

I don't know if that had anything to do with it or not, but I'm just explaining the thinking behind the comment. I still agree with you that most of us would have rather had Welker for the next couple of yrs, but it's possible that Belichick made the move with thoughts of replacing Welker's production on a longer term scale.

There are lots of comparable guys out there with less of an injury history who they could have brought in IMO.

Not sure I'd agree with you there. Amendola already had experience in the JMcD system which is a major plus, and was often compared to likely be the next Welker. He's had 3/4 relatively productive seasons and no signs of any "nagging" types of injuries. Of course some players may be more prone to getting hurt no matter what, so that's the obvious downside and the concern that so many had.

I couldn't think of anyone else that I personally would have rather seen brought in to replace Welker, and to top it off we also retained Edelman--who has done fine playing the slot before. In all actuality, we went into the season with 2 slot targets who were younger, shifty, and could likely do much of what Welker did as long as they had the playbook and the timing down. The obvious drawback once again, is the health concern, but who would you rather have had playing the slot here?

Secondly (the bolded)...I think that is a MAJOR part of the problem WHY NOT pay them both? Brady deserves some $ invested in his receiving corps.

I think it's a slippery slope to try and argue against Belichick regarding salary cap decisions, based on his success in that area. He may not be the best scout, or GM on draft day, but his cap decisions have generally worked out well for the team not just for the present, but also the future. That's important b/c it allows us to remain competitive on a consistent basis.

There were 2 brand new long term pacts given to the TE's just last summer, and they were the #2 and #3 receivers in this offense. On top of that Amendola was given a nice long term pact too as the #1. That's good money right there to the top 3 receivers.

As another poster also pointed out, we've got a lot invested in the offensive line too. Mankins makes top dollar, a brand new long term deal was given to Vollmer, and Nate Solder is due soon to make more than both of them. They also pay Dan Connelly a very reasonable salary too. There are lots of areas where the team has sunk some nice money in, and generally Belichick hasn't chosen to pay 2 WR's top dollar deals at the same time.
 
He's played in 16 games for 8 of his 9 seasons. I think he'd make a GREAT addition to this group. But then again the Hamburgler probably would too, so that's not saying much.

I'm not extremely familiar with the ins and outs of Nate Washington aside from remembering him playing for PIT and knowing that he plays for TEN at the moment.

I do think that this kind of "name" of WR would be a reasonable thought in terms of a potential addition though. The cost would be reasonable and it could provide them with another body to bring in during the offseason. I'm not as convinced as you are that he'd definitely work out, but I think your choice is much more reasonable that our usual pipe dreams of Mike Wallace etc. Those don't seem to be the kinds of signings that Belichick likes to make. There's absolutely no guarantee that the new high priced receiver would work out in terms of picking up the system, so why take a chance on someone who would cost as much as the top tiered WR FA's?

It's possible that we may eventually see another top tiered WR brought in before Brady is done, but I think they'll need to be somewhat cautious of the fact that they have a lot of their own FA's to try and retain over the course of the next 18 months for '14 and '15. In that aspect they will most likely take the conservative side in free agency acquisitions from other teams.
 
What do his DROPS suggest?

Pre 2011, we NEVER talked about his drops. His hands were money.

Fail all of you.

Facts are that 2011 was Welkers highest catch rate - 71%. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Wes Welker

This season, Welker is at 63% catch rate closing in on the sweet spot of 66% - 2 out of 3 passes caught. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2013 As Welker and Manning get more familiar, look for Welkers catch rate to increase.

This is all a bunch of foolishness about Welker declining.
 
He's played in 16 games for 8 of his 9 seasons. I think he'd make a GREAT addition to this group. But then again the Hamburgler probably would too, so that's not saying much.

Yeah "played" in those games, yet only managed to crack over 50 catches one time..because he is always playing injured.
 
Fail all of you.

Facts are that 2011 was Welkers highest catch rate - 71%. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Wes Welker

This season, Welker is at 63% catch rate closing in on the sweet spot of 66% - 2 out of 3 passes caught. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2013 As Welker and Manning get more familiar, look for Welkers catch rate to increase.

This is all a bunch of foolishness about Welker declining.

The success rate you quote and drops are two different things. WRs are targeted and they don't catch the ball does not necessarily mean he dropped the ball. Sometimes the receiver runs the wrong route or is slow to get to the spot they are supposed to be. Sometimes the QB overthrows the receiver. Those aren't drops.

Drops are when the ball hits the receiver on the hand and fails to pull the ball in. For example, Welker was targeted eight times last Sunday and caught three. That is a success rate of 37.5%, but only three of the five targets that he didn't pull in were drops. So if you remove the drops from his stats on Sunday, he still only caught three of five targets or a 60% success rate.

And let's not forget this year that Welker has been credited for a catch he didn't catch and with such a small sample, that is a huge difference. You take away that third down catch he didn't actually catch and the refs and Harbaugh blew, he has had a 57.9% success rate this year. But 19 targets and 11 or 12 catches is a pretty small sample size to compare to full season stats.
 
Yeah "played" in those games, yet only managed to crack over 50 catches one time..because he is always playing injured.

Injured and banged up a completely different. And his catches have more to do with the play of his qb than it does Washington. This guy has sack, and he plays all out. Gets open, makes tough catches over the middle and can still get behind defenses for the occasional big play. He reminds me of a rich mans David Pattern. This dude would help us out right away and would not cost much to trade for. I've been talking to my coworker about this since before the draft, and ive gone back and watched as much film on him as I could find (yes I'm a loser). FML
 
Yeah "played" in those games, yet only managed to crack over 50 catches one time..because he is always playing injured.

Amendola's stats were limited by Sam Bradford in STL, just like Welker's stats were limited by his crappy QB play in Miami.
 
WW has 12 catches....3 for TDs...the remaining 9 catches were all for first downs. Some afterthought. I love your analysis though. It's as if teams just ignore WW and the ball mistaken winds up in his arms in the end zone by accident.

Since a TD is counted as a first down, it appears the WW is doing exactly what they'd like him to be doing - moving the chains and scoring points.

The drops I've seen are certainly a little concerning (as a Welker jersey owner and Welker fan who wanted the Patriots to get Welker even before they did) but it's a small sample size.

All that being said, you may be right. I don't see the lack of quickness but I'm not the most observant guy in the world either.
 
Amendola's stats were limited by Sam Bradford in STL, just like Welker's stats were limited by his crappy QB play in Miami.

No Amendola's stats were limited by injury. He had some monster games.
 
No Amendola's stats were limited by injury. He had some monster games.

Monster games?
only 3 100+ yard games in his career. 160, 102, 104... That would make 1 monster game.
 
Wes Welker promoting Adult Diapers - I guess he is washed up!

He is now pitching Depend undergarments for discreet protection. Perhaps he craps his pants with some of those hits he takes.

Celebrities Talk About Depend® Incontinence Briefs

Edit: It's for charity.
 
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Re: Wes Welker promoting Adult Diapers - I guess he is washed up!

He is now pitching Depend undergarments for discreet protection. Perhaps he craps his pants with some of those hits he takes.

Celebrities Talk About Depend® Incontinence Briefs

Edit: It's for charity.

Between that and his bizarre Old Spice ad, I want to know what his agent is thinking when it comes to endorsement deals.
 
Fail all of you.

Facts are that 2011 was Welkers highest catch rate - 71%. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Wes Welker

This season, Welker is at 63% catch rate closing in on the sweet spot of 66% - 2 out of 3 passes caught. FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | WIDE RECEIVERS 2013 As Welker and Manning get more familiar, look for Welkers catch rate to increase.

This is all a bunch of foolishness about Welker declining.

What does a hitch route that hits Welker right in the stomach have to do with Welker and Peyton's familiarity? Or a ball that is catchable if he just extended his arms more than 3/4's of the way?

That was just last game. None of those had anything to do with chemistry, familiarity, anticipation or any other word anyone cares to use to describe a QB/WR relationship. That was Wes dropping balls he should have caught, period.

Your comments suggest you didn't watch last Sunday's Broncos game.
 
Re: Wes Welker promoting Adult Diapers - I guess he is washed up!

Between that and his bizarre Old Spice ad, I want to know what his agent is thinking when it comes to endorsement deals.

Is this the same brain trust behind his negotiations with the Pats? If so they're a few light bulbs shy of being the sharpest beer of a happy meal.
 
Re: Wes Welker promoting Adult Diapers - I guess he is washed up!

Between that and his bizarre Old Spice ad, I want to know what his agent is thinking when it comes to endorsement deals.

He's thinking, "let's strike while the iron is hot and make a boatload of money."
 


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